Tag: fantasy football sleepers

The official list of sleepers and busts will come from the fingertips of David Dorey later this summer, but my personal favorites are already here to tide you over. In this release, sleepers, deep sleepers (late fliers) and undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. “N/A” represents not enough selections to warrant inclusion in the ADP charts.

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew | Jacksonville Jaguars | Sleeper | ADP: N/A

We saw plenty of flashes from Minshew as a rookie in 2019, finishing the year with eight games of at least 20 fantasy points, including a high-water mark of 30.9. The Jaguars’ offensive line should be improved this season, and the backfield remains stable, although unspectacular, which plays into Minshew’s favor. At receiver, the Jags return all three starters from last year, featuring third-year wideout DJ Chark, who is flirting with WR1 status if his trajectory holds up. The draft brought in rookie do-all weapon Laviska Shenault Jr., and veteran pass-catching tight end Tyler Eifert is now in the mix. Don’t forget third-down weapon Chris Thompson comes over from Washington with new coordinator Jay Gruden.

There should always be some concern with a new system installation, and even more so when a pandemic is impacting the offseason, but Minshew showed last year he has no issue picking up a system on the fly. He’s a No. 2 fantasy passer with starting utility when the matchup is right.

Matthew Stafford | Detroit Lions | Undervalued | ADP: 10:03

In 2019, before Stafford suffered a season-ending back injury that is no longer an issue, he was on pace for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. We’ve seen him do it before, so this wasn’t totally out of left field. OC Darrell Bevell has a reputation for being a run-first play-caller, but it’s somewhat skewed since he had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime on his teams. Detroit’s running game has to be better this year, which means we’re unlikely to see 5k from Stafford, but he’s quite efficient and has a supporting cast to do some damage.

The value of a proven veteran entering Year 2 in an offense while so many other quarterbacks will be scrambling to play catch-up once on-field activities resume cannot go underappreciated. In 2020 drafts, waiting on your quarterback will pay off, and landing this Lion is a wise investment. He’s a fringe QB1 but requires a competent counterpart on draft day.

Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | Undervalued | ADP: 13:01

Of quarterbacks to start at least 10 times last year, Tannehill rated as the No. 10 fantasy quarterback on a per-game basis. He threw 22 touchdowns against only six picks, and didn’t toss an INT in seven of his appearances. Over the final six regular-season games, he really found his groove and was good for at least 26.7 fantasy points in four of those outings.

People may let the playoffs stick in their mind where Tannehill wasn’t asked to throw the ball. It’s fair, since the offense runs through Derrick Henry. The receiving corps should be better with A.J. Brown ready to ascend in Year 2, Corey Davis playing for a contract in 2021, and Adam Humphries coming back healthy. Tannehill won’t lose you games, which may be extra important in a season with a limited offseason program ahead. Trust him as a matchup-play QB2.

Philip Rivers | Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: 13:11

It’s easy to feel nervous about rostering an average-armed, 38-year-old quarterback whose mobility never has been his strong suit. Sometimes we have to defy conventional logic and focus on intangibles. Rivers is reunited with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni in Indy, taking snaps behind what is arguably the best line in football.

The weaponry is young after wideout T.Y. Hilton, who is coming off of an injury-marred campaign. However, veteran tight end Jack Doyle isn’t fighting rehab or losing touches to Eric Ebron. The backfield is better than it has been in years, and Rivers will be able to rely on play-action passing. The Colts have two promising former second-round picks in wide receivers Michaokel Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell to complement each other in ideal ways. Rivers is not a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but there will be weeks he plays like it, and gamers need to take advantage of it with rotational QB play at a cheap price.

Running backs

Justin Jackson | Los Angeles Chargers | Sleeper | ADP: 12:11

Entering Year 3, Jackson has a microscopic sample size as the No. 3 back behind Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon. The latter is gone, and the former can’t be expected to do it alone. Jackson’s body of work is 79 attempts for 406 yards (5.1 YPC) and a pair of scores. He isn’t much of a receiver — an area we’re likely to see more of Ekeler. Fourth-rounder Joshua Kelley will compete for time, but it’s safe to believe the rookie curve will be tougher this offseason.

Jackson may battle inconsistency at times, and the backfield is probably going to be the focus of extra defensive scrutiny if the passing game isn’t up to par after the departure of Philip Rivers. There’s reason to believe we won’t see No. 6 overall pick Justin Herbert play meaningful snaps with Tyrod Taylor slated to open as the starting quarterback. Jackson runs tougher than his 5-foot-11, 193-pound frame suggests; he could be the preferred choice near the stripe. The long and short of it is gamers are snoozing on the third-year back, and he’s a capable RB3, especially in leagues that run deeper than average.

Matt Breida | Miami Dolphins | Undervalued | ADP: 8:06

The explosive runner was dealt from the San Francisco 49ers to the Dolphins during the draft and will form a one-two punch with the more powerful Jordan Howard. First and foremost, injuries are a concern with Breida. He battled an ankle sprain on more than one occasion in the past two seasons, yet he still gutted it out and played a few times when it looked grim in the days leading up to kickoff. When healthy, he is a low-volume, high-output weapon with the ability to contribute in the passing game.

Breida began the year strong for San Fran in 2019, logging at least 14 touches in the first four games. He scored twice, racked up two 100-yard games and then struggled to be relevant after suffering a Week 9 ankle sprain during a game in which he was returning to form after a two-week lull. The logjam in the 49ers’ backfield led to him being sent to Miami. Chan Gailey is the new OC in South Beach, and he has shown capable of producing a variety of successful offensive systems. There will be a lot of inconsistency from the entire Miami offense, but Breida’s efficiency gives him a chance to exceed expectations. He’s a value buy as a No. 3 back in PPR setups.

Darrynton Evans | Tennessee Titans | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A

In the 2020 draft, Tennessee arguably reached for the Appalachian State running back when it snagged Evans in Round 3. None of that matters now, because opportunity is all gamers should care about when evaluating the situation. Evans is an obvious contrast from the bruising rushing champ, and there’s little reason to expect the Titans to get away from riding Derrick Henry as the formula to their success.

Evans, though, could see more work as a spell or third-down option than we witnessed from Dion Lewis last year. The veteran touched the ball only 54 times on the ground and 25 through the air. Evans realistically could see numbers to the inverse of that stat line, touching the ball via in more passes than carries. He gets the label of “deep sleeper” primarily because there’s some guesswork at play when you don’t know how a small-school back will be ready for the pros in an abbreviated offseason. All bets are off, though, if the Titans opt to bring in one of the lingering veteran free agents.

Tony Pollard | Dallas Cowboys | Undervalued | ADP: 11:03

There’s no reason anyone who takes Ezekiel Elliott should come away from their draft without Pollard in tow — unless you, the speculative buyer, swoops in first. Being a handcuff aside, there’s some one-off utility for Pollard being a standalone back some weeks. He can do it all and is efficient, which is favorable for a fringe lineup gamble. The Cowboys have a boatload of cash invested into Zeke, and while this shouldn’t be taken to the extreme, it’s not outlandish to think the coaching staff could look to lessen his workload. No back has handled it more in the last two years than Elliott’s 736 touches (Christian McCaffrey is next at 729).

Pollard amassed 562 yards on 101 touches last year, and he scored three times. Half of his production came in two games that were blowouts in Dallas’ favor — a reality that makes playing him particularly treacherous. Simply put, if Elliott were to go down with a significant injury, fantasy owners have an immediate RB1 on their hands. Pollard is worth a slight reach if you’re thin at the position.

Eno Benjamin | Arizona Cardinals | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A

Total flier material here … in fact, Benjamin is barely draftable in deep leagues. If we play the “what if” game, he’s worthy of an inclusion in the event one of the catalysts were to come true. Those possible situations being: 1) Kenyan Drake’s brief but impressive run last year turns out to be a fluke 2) Drake gets hurt with a larger workload 3) Backup Chase Edmonds isn’t durable enough for even limited reps … any one of those situations could put Benjamin, a seventh-round rookie, into position to contribute. That said, all of those scenarios are far closer to being food for thought than anything to take to the bank. Benjamin is a late-round roll of the dice for those looking to take a chance.

Wide receivers

Diontae Johnson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Sleeper | ADP: 9:08

Few players are as intriguing as the second-year receiver. Ben Roethlisberger is throwing again after elbow surgery and will bring a much needed boost to the entire offense. Johnson offers a blend of speed and athleticism that was on display as a rookie, even through the quarterback carousel after Big Ben bit the dust. WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington help balance out the defensive attention, and the addition of tight end Eric Ebron adds another low-volume target to keep defenders on their toes while not posing a massive threat to Johnson’s target share.

Pittsburgh spent a 2019 third-round pick on Johnson, and the Toledo product didn’t disappoint. The offensive system remains the same, translating to less concern for developmental stalling that other blossoming receivers may encounter due to the coronavirus outbreak. Johnson drew no fewer than seven targets in each of the last four games of 2019, snaring four or more balls in every contest, and scoring twice along the way. He improved as the year went on and didn’t find the game to be too much for him as a rook. In some ways, his upside exceeds that of Smith-Schuster as the potential WR1 of this passing game. Expect his draft stock to climb as we get closer to draft season, though. You’re looking at a rock-solid No. 2 fantasy receiver.

Hunter Renfrow | Las Vegas Raiders | Sleeper | ADP: N/A

According to ADP data, 70 receivers are going before Renfrow right now in PPR drafts. SEVENTY. He finished WR60 as a rookie in 13 games last year after missing time with a broken rib that punctured a lung. … I stubbed my toe once and was out of commission for an entire weekend. Oh, and when he came back to the field in Week 16, the former Clemson hero posted back-to-back 100-yard games with a score in each, landing seven and six passes, respectively, on 18 targets. That’s 35 percent of his season-long yardage in two contests, and his average yards per reception went from 11 to 16.1. Even though it was a small sample size, Renfrow was trending in the right direction in the month leading up to the injury. He saw his per-game averages for targets, catches and yardage all increase from the first eight weeks of the year.

Maturation on the field was bound to happen for such a dedicated, heady player. Clutch hands, precision route skills, the confidence of his quarterback, a new receiver with speed to burn in Henry Ruggs … short of another serious injury, Renfrow is positioned well to make a run at No. 2 receiver territory in his second year.

Jamison Crowder | New York Jets | Undervalued | ADP: 10:11

Does anyone really believe rookie Denzel Mims will be the No. 1 target for Sam Darnold following an offseason with no semblance of training camp in sight, especially coming out of Baylor’s system? How about putting faith in journeyman Breshad Perriman finally living up to his potential as a former first-round pick after a handful of productive (and timely) fantasy games as a Buccaneer? If Perriman was so ready to ascend, why didn’t Tampa make an earnest effort to re-sign him? It’s not like the Jets splurged, even if it was still more than warranted ($8M) based on past production.

The point of all of that is the team’s No. 1 receiver is not coming off of the board until nearly the 11th round in PPR leagues. That is insane. Crowder, aside from an injury-shortened season in Washington, has been quite productive out of the slot for gamers in reception-rewarding formats. New York threw to him 122 times last year, and the team actually regressed in the short term at WR in the meantime. Only 15 wideouts saw more balls come their way in ’19 … Chris Godwin had fewer looks and people are drafting him as a WR1. At any rate, Crowder finished WR26 in PPR without topping 900 yards. He’s being drafted as WR47. Even if he regresses slightly in targets, we’re still looking at a significant value buy.

Josh Reynolds | Los Angeles Rams | Sleeper | ADP: N/A

The Rams featured a base three-receiver set a league-high 80 percent of the time in 2019 and a whopping 95 percent of the snaps in 2018. We’ve seen this offense generate three productive fantasy wideouts a number of times when injuries weren’t derailing Sean McVay’s plans, and now Brandin Cooks is a Houston Texan to pave the way for Reynolds to get his shot. Rookie receiver Van Jefferson will have a say in the matter, but so will no offseason activities for the youngster.

In 2019, Reynolds saw his work increase with Cooks on the shelf for two games and parts of others. It didn’t amount to huge stats for Reynolds, yet he still was relevant (19 targets, nine catches, 177 yards, one TD) as a flex consideration. Cooks was targeted 72 times, down from 117 the prior year when the offense was clicking. No Todd Gurley in the backfield could mean more passing, and it also opens up a few looks per game, in theory. Should Reynolds see somewhere in between those marks Cooks tallied, we’re looking at around 95 balls coming his way — good for WR3 numbers on the utilization front. Obviously looks alone don’t equate to points, so an even-keeled view is a flex option as the floor of his upside.

Parris Campbell | Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: N/A

It’s understandable why fantasy owner have been standoffish toward Campbell in the early going of drafting. He was an utter disappointment as a rookie and barely was able to get onto the field. In seven games, the 2019 second-rounder managed a paltry 18 catches for 127 yards and a score, averaging only 7.1 yards per snag. He has speed for days and will have a second offseason to fully digest the playbook. Staying off of the trainer’s table is a must, however.

Campbell doesn’t come without risk, but the upside outweighs it with a late-round selection in drafts. He’s going to be at least in competition for the No. 2 looks behind T.Y. Hilton in an offense that will go from Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer to Philip Rivers under center. Even at his advanced age (38), Rivers is an upgrade. While Indy added a receiver in Round 2 this year, as well, there’s a steeper learning curve in the pandemic timeline for a rookie. Besides, Michael Pittman Jr. and Campbell are hardly the same style of player. The Ohio State product is not being drafted, on average, in the top 70 receivers, so taking a late-round gamble on him isn’t going to crater your season. Perhaps he can finally figure out how to put all of that speed to good use.

Adam Humphries | Tennessee Titans | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A

Remember him? In 2018, Humphries turned in a 76-catch season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and managed to find the end zone five times. Toss in 816 yards and all three stats were career bests. He translated that into a respectable payday with the Titans but never really looked comfortable in the offense. In Week 14, he suffered a high-ankle sprain and missed the rest of the regular season. In his second year with the Titans, Humphries should see the offense around him open up a bit. A.J. Brown will take a step forward and looks destined for WR1 status. The guy once presumed to be that in Corey Davis is likely out after 2020, so there’s no real incentive to force the ball his way.

Humphries played nearly 79 percent of his snaps from the slot last year, and the passing game ran at least three-wide sets a respectable 67 percent of the time, with 55 percent coming in a base three-receiver formation (seventh lowest). As second-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith tweaks his playbook after a season of learning the ropes, there’s room for growth in this area more than any other. Much like with the aforementioned Parris Campbell, there’s no reason to get overly excited about Humphries, but he’s more likely to see an uptick in work than remain stale or regress. Gamers could do much worse on a late-round flier.

Kelvin Harmon | Washington Redskins | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A

In 2019, as a rookie, Harmon was thrown at 44 times, resulting in 30 grabs for 365 yards. He did not visit the end zone. After a nearly radio silent start to his pro career through the first nine weeks, Harmon’s role increased considerably. Of those 44 looks, 31 came in the final seven games. There was a wide array of problems with the Redskins in 2019, from quarterback to offensive line to coaching, so seeing any encouraging signs from a rookie receiver shouldn’t go unnoticed.

Fast-forwarding to 2020, Ron Rivera is the head coach. Scott Turner is the OC. We presume Dwayne Haskins will open as the starting quarterback, although Kyle Allen (and maybe Cam Newton?) will have something to say about it. Harmon comes with uncertainty after trending in the right direction to close out his rookie campaign, hence the “deep sleeper” designation. He’s really an ideal target for a late flier in 2020 best-ball formats — leagues in which owners don’t set weekly lineups and their highest performers at each position instead comprise the starting group. Despite Washington investing in one-and-a-half rookie receivers (Antonio Gibson should mostly play RB) in the first four rounds of this year’s draft, it’s a pair of rookies from 2019’s selection process who stand to have the best chance of leading this receiving corps in fantasy points.

Jalen Hurd | San Francisco 49ers | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A

Several factors may stand in the way of Hurd becoming a regular fantasy contributor in 2020: 1) San Fran spent a first-round pick on WR Brandon Aiyuk 2) Deebo Samuel has breakout star written all over him 3) George Kittle is basically a WR1/WR2 any given week 4) This offense loves to pound the rock. Conversely, Aiyuk has to grow and learn a complex system without an offseason program at this time. Samuel needs some help. Kittle has injury history. Teams cannot run every down … hardly nuanced stuff that makes a monumental difference for fantasy success.

Hurd has almost no competition to speak of for the slot receiver spot, which is a hybrid role in this system. The hope here — make no mistake, there will be luck needed — the second-year receiver carves out a role as the go-to weapon in the red zone. He stands 6-foot-4, 228 pounds, bringing the most size of any 49ers receiver in contention of seeing action. In a less generous understanding of the situation, Hurd will require the offense to either run substantially more three-wide sets (highly unlikely) or overtake a first-round pick (also dubious). Don’t draft him in conventional leagues, but Hurd has best-ball potential in the last round or two, and he’s also a “why not?” gamble in the last round of leagues that warrant more than six receivers on a team.

Tight ends

Hayden Hurst | Atlanta Falcons | Sleeper | ADP: 11:12

Atlanta lost Austin Hooper to Cleveland in free agency, paving the way for a trade with the Baltimore Ravens to secure the 2018 first-round pick in Hurst. His rookie year was basically lost after an early injury derailed any chance of building momentum. He was made expendable by way of Mark Andrews’ rise in Baltimore, so the Ravens wisely looked to recoup some of their original investment in Hurst. Despite being a player with limited experience, he’s going to be 27 years old before the season begins, thanks to spending time focusing on his MLB career dreams before walking on to South Carolina’s football team.

At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, he’s fluid and athletic in the passing game but also can block well enough to keep him on the field — and that’s exactly the ticket here. If Hurst can establish himself just enough early on by way of simply being on the field, we know this system is favorable for tight ends, and the Falcons need one more set of hands after Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Hurst shouldn’t be considered a surefire fantasy starter by any means, yet he could cobble together enough action to post TE1 numbers as a composite stat line by year’s end.

Jace Sternberger | Green Bay Packers | Sleeper | ADP: N/A

Feeling frisky? The departure of Jimmy Graham left a hole in the starting lineup that is expected to be filled by the second-year Sternberger. He was drafted in Round 3 last year and didn’t catch a pass until the playoffs, ultimately scoring a touchdown in the conference championship game as a reserve. Sternberger missed eight games during the season after suffering an ankle injury. In summation, he’s not exactly experienced.

The Packers have longed for a tight end for years who can do damage in the passing game. The system employed by Matt LaFleur is friendly to the position, and Green Bay didn’t address its wide receivers in the draft, as many prognosticators (and probably Aaron Rodgers) had expected for a team that was one win away from the Super Bowl. Devin Funchess was brought in during free agency, but he’s far from a lock to contribute. Rookie tight end Josiah Deguara will play more of an H-back role and isn’t a true threat to Sternberger. Every so often a player comes from what seems like absolutely nowhere to become a household fantasy name, and if any tight end is positioned for such a leap this year, Sternberger is the guy.

T.J. Hockenson | Detroit Lions | Undervalued | ADP: 14:01

Coming out of Iowa in 2019, Hockenson was widely dubbed as being the most NFL-ready tight end to go pro in some time, and after a monster Week 1 debut, it looked like he was going to live up to the lofty billing. Instead, following a 6-131-1 line, he posted five total grabs over his next three appearances and scored only once more the entire year, which was cut short to 12 games after an ankle injury. Hockenson also was nicked up with various bumps and bruises that he played through. Some of the blame for the statistical regression is due to Hockenson having to stay in to block more, something that coincided with surges in the box score for WRs Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Then, Matthew Stafford’s season ended after eight starts, and the rest of the season imploded around a rotation of reserve quarterbacks.

In the upcoming season, Hockenson will at least have the familiarity of the same offensive system, despite the offseason program being nonexistent. The Lions have assembled a well-rounded offense of blue-collar talent, and Hockenson fits well into that setting. Top-five numbers may be a year away, but he’s deserving of a much better draft placement than TE18 in a year of increased volatility at the position.

Jack Doyle | Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: 14:06

Doyle is two season removed from an 80-catch, 690-yard, four-score showing with the Colts. He lost most of his 2018 season to injury, playing only six games, and the statistical pace was still right in line with his breakout year. The veteran returned to play 16 contests last year and scored four times once again, but his receptions (43) and yardage (448) were down. It was the first time in his career in which Doyle averaged north of 10 yards per grab, at least. He shared time with Eric Ebron, and Indy’s entire passing game was less than impressive as T.Y. Hilton battled injuries nearly all season.

In the upcoming year, though, Ebron is gone, Philip Rivers replaces Jacoby Brissett, and the only real competition for tight end looks is Trey Burton. To Burton’s credit, he stood out in Philly with current Colts head coach Frank Reich serving as OC. Rivers has made a living throwing to the tight end position, and the Colts upgraded talent in the receiving corps over the past two drafts, which should free up Doyle to see less attention in the intermediate portion of the route tree. No one should bank on Doyle carrying your fantasy team at tight end, of course, but he’s going as the 21st tight end drafted when continuity is working in his favor. Look to add him as a No. 2 who can be used in a pinch.

Dalton Keene | New England Patriots | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A

Rarely do rookie tight ends contribute anything of consequence in fantasy football. Rarely does it pay to second-guess Bill Belichick. As the Patriots forge ahead without Tom Brady slinging passes to the usual suspects, New England’s storied coach is expected  to turn the keys over to second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham. In turn, pundits scoff and suggest the guy behind the decision would be better off turning to a proven veteran. Perhaps that will prove to be true in time, but it’s never wise to automatically write off Belichick’s eye for talent and ability to get the most out of an unheralded player. All of that ties directly into Keene finding success early on, even without an offseason program.

The rookie has a legit shot at being the top tight end in a system that has lived and died by the position for years. In a system that doesn’t have a particularly strong receiving corps. In a system that will be balanced, if not run-heavy, and rely on play-action passing to alleviate pressure on its young quarterback. In a system that said young quarterback will rely on his targets using their brains more than their brawn. A starter of 38 games at Virginia Tech in three years, Keene could be ready for a markedly successful debut season. And it won’t cost gamers more than a throwaway draft selection to go with a little bit of faith to find out.

Kickers

Matt Gay | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sleeper | ADP: N/A

It’s tough to understand why Gay isn’t being drafted in the top 16, according to ADP figures, after being the No. 6 fantasy kicker in 2019. The offense may not afforded him the 35 kicks he attempted last year, but he still registered 7.8 fantasy points a game while missing five extra points on 48 tries and connected on just 77.1 percent of his field goals (27-for-35). He missed six kicks from 40-plus, including three from greater than 50 yards. Gay missed only three kicks prior to the final three weeks of the year. It’s a little worrisome that two of those games were at home, and one was in Detroit’s climate-controlled confines. He went 0-for-3 in the season finale, so it’s fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to rookie jitters.

Ka’imi Fairbairn | Houston Texans | Undervalued | ADP: 15:04

In 2018, Fairbairn led all kickers in fantasy football points. He regressed to PK19 last year, which came from a massive regression in field goal attempts, as well as make percentage, going from 2018’s 88.1 percent to 80.0 in 2019. The Texans made significant change on offense, bringing in running back David Johnson and trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason. It’s more than fair to expect this offense will take a step back in explosiveness and score fewer touchdowns. The entire offensive design should be more conservative based on the personnel limitations. More stalled drives tend to result in more three-point tries. If he could get closer to the 42 attempts of 2018 — even, say, kick 35 times — we’re talking about a mid-tier No. 1 kicker.

Josh Lambo | Jacksonville Jaguars | Undervalued | ADP: N/A

Last year’s No. 7 fantasy kicker isn’t getting drafted, on average, in the top 16 spots. He posted 7.4 fantasy points per game in 2019, marking the third time in his past four seasons to score at least than much. Lambo’s fantasy success was fueled by a personal-best 34 field goal attempts and and insane 97.1 percent conversation rate. There will be regression in the accuracy, because that’s just not sustainable over time. To counter it, look for an increase from 20 extra point attempts. This offense figures to be more prolific in the TD column with a proven play-caller in Jay Gruden, the maturation of QB Gardner Minshew, and upgrades in the offensive personnel.

Defense/special teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Undervalued | ADP: 14:12

Tampa’s weak spot is the secondary. The front seven will drive everything, applying ample pressure to mask deficiencies on the back end. The defensive line isn’t particularly aggressive for sacks, but that’s because of the system’s reliance on the linebacking corps, which features the 2019 NFL sack leader in Shaquil Barrett. Linebacker Devin White should improve upon his promising rookie season as last year’s prized first-round choice. The most important factor is rest. The offense should be far more protective of the football than Jameis Winston’s version a year ago, and it’s crazy how much that matters for a defense to stay fresh in a climate like that of central Florida. This should be one of the top-five defenses chosen, not the 14th overall.

New Orleans Saints | Undervalued | ADP: 13:12

In 2019, the Saints were fantasy’s fifth-best defensive unit for points scored. The value differential here is only four spots in relation to ADP, sot it’s not like this unit will be some kind of crazy steal. There’s a lot to be said for continuity in both personnel and coaching during the year of the pandemic, so don’t short-change the notion of stability. The pass rush should remain strong, and the secondary improved. The NFL draft brought in pass-rushing specialist Zack Baun. Offensive consistency also is an important factor, too, and it shouldn’t be understated. Don’t be suckered into overvaluing the universally preferred teams, like New England, Chicago and Buffalo, while passing on a smarter option in New Orleans.

Cleveland Browns | Sleeper | ADP: 14:11

Simply regaining its best defender in Myles Garrett after his 2019 suspension will make a world of difference. The Browns have considerable talent, even if they will be reliant on two rookies making a substantial impact in 2020, so this recommendation isn’t without risk. The defense is going to be faster because of it, too. Look for reasonable jumps in play from second-year linebacker Mack Wilson and cornerback Greedy Williams. While rostering a second defense is almost never worthwhile coming out of a draft, Cleveland is a fringe starting unit if you missed out on the safer options.