The Alabama Crimson Tide are nearly two-touchdown favorites to win the Iron Bowl. Does the Tale of the Tape say this game will be closer?
The 6-5 Auburn Tigers finish the regular season on Saturday when they play host to the 10-1 Alabama Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl.
Auburn is coming off its worst loss of the season, and maybe the decade, last week in a 31-10 beatdown against New Mexico State.
On the other side, [autotag]Nick Saban[/autotag] and the Tide have been playing great football since an early-season loss to Texas, giving them an outside chance at the College Football Playoff.
Despite the last three Iron Bowls at Jordan-Hare being decided by an average of 6 points, [autotag]Nick Saban[/autotag]‘s squad is a 13.5-point favorite to improve to 10-1 according to Bet MGM.
ESPN FPI seemingly agrees with the oddsmakers, as the model gives Alabama an 85.8% chance to keep their playoff hopes alive on Saturday.
Will the tale of the tape tell us this game is going to be closer than expected, or is Alabama going to roll to another Iron Bowl victory?
As always, we’ll start with the quarterbacks.
Auburn quarterback [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] has had himself a roller coaster season more inconsistent than the food truck locations on campus.
The junior played well in team’s 3-game win streak to open the year, then struggled for about a month before finding his footing at the end of October.
Thorne averaged nearly 213 yards and 3 touchdowns per game in Auburn wins over Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State, leading many people to believe the offense had found life heading into the home stretch of the season.
That belief fizzled last week, as Thorne threw for just 148 yards and 1 touchdown in the team’s loss to New Mexico State. The Tigers quarterback was also sacked 4 times.
Alabama quarterback [autotag]Jalen Milroe [/autotag] has had a similar type of “roller coaster” season. The sophomore opened the season with accuracy issues, and while he’s figured out some, Milroe still struggles to throw the ball at times.
The difference between Milroe and Thorne lies in their rushing ability. While the Alabama quarterback has only rushed for 332 yards, he’s collected 12 rushing touchdowns to go along with 19 passing scores.
Those 31 total touchdowns account for nearly double of [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag]’s 17 total scores.
The clear quarterback edge goes to Milroe and the Crimson Tide.
Alabama also holds the edge in the position player battle.
While Auburn running back [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag] has been great this season, rushing for 772 yards and 7 scores, his presence isn’t enough to break through the rolling tide of offensive firepower on the Alabama side.
Quarterback [autotag]Jalen Milroe[/autotag] has done much of the heavy lifting in the red zone, but Tide running backs [autotag]Jase McClellan[/autotag] and [autotag]Roydell Williams[/autotag] have been great in-between the 20s.
The tandem has rushed for 1,204 yards this season, on nearly 5.3 yards per carry. The duo gets the slight edge over Hunter.
The real difference lies in the receiving core on the offensive side of the ball, as Alabama senior [autotag]Jermaine Burton[/autotag] is easily the best pass-catcher in this game.
Burton’s 642 receiving yards just about equal the recieving yards of the top 2 Tigers pass catchers, [autotag]Rivaldo Fairweather[/autotag] (349) and [autotag]Jay Fair[/autotag] (300).
The Crimson Tide get the edge across the offense.
The gap is closer of defense, but Alabama still gets the edge.
[autotag]Nick Saban[/autotag]’s defensive unit is about as stout as stout can get. They’ve held opponents to just over 17 points per game this season which has led them to the fifth-highest defensive efficiency ranking according to ESPN FPI.
Auburn’s unit has been great for much of the season too, but struggled mightily against New Mexico State last week.
[autotag]Eugene Asante[/autotag], [autotag]Jalen McCleod[/autotag], and the Tigers defense have held opponents to just under 21.5 points per game and they rank 19th in defensive efficiency.
The defensive gap is close, and with Auburn having the home field advantage, I’m going to call it a wash for this Iron Bowl.
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