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NFL Week 10 was wild, a memorable week and a surprise-filled week which featured nine of 13 underdogs covering the mid-week lines.
We weren’t on either of the big underdogs (Atlanta Falcons +11.5 in New Orleans, Miami Dolphins +9.5 in Indianapolis) who not only covered but also won outright, but we did go 3-0 to snap a run of three straight 1-2 weekly finishes and up our season record to 18-12.
Now it’s back to board to find more underdog value, utilizing, as usual, Wednesday’s posted point spreads from BetMGM.com.
Get some action on the games by betting at BetMGM. New customer offer: RISK-FREE First Bet (up to $500!) paid in free bets.
Dolphins (+6) vs. Buffalo Bills
Don’t look now, but the Dolphins’ tanking mission is suddenly headed the wrong direction.
Behind the fearless play of veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and an energized, no-name defense, Miami is 2-0 in November and has covered in five straight outings after a brutal 0-4 against-the-spread start in which the Dolphins were outscored 163-26.
The Bills, meanwhile, have gone 2-2 after a 4-1 start, including a tighter-than-it-looks 31-21 home win over the Dolphins in Week 7.
Keep riding with Fitzpatrick and Co. here as the oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to the new-and-improved Dolphins. They’re playing hard for a first-year coach in Brian Flores, who clearly doesn’t include “tanking” among his best career interests.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3½) vs. New England Patriots
It hasn’t proven to be wise wagering against Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Co., who are 10-3 in their last 13 games ATS dating back to Week 17 of last season — and coming off the bye in this one.
But the host Eagles are coming off their bye, as well, and they are 4-2 after starting off 1-2.
Philly is sure to be fired up for the teams’ first meeting since Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, and while the Pats are sure to be focused coming off their first loss followed by the bye, we’ll take a solid team getting a field goal and the always-tempting half-point hook at home.
Arizona Cardinals (+11½) at San Francisco 49ers
If it seems like we just saw this NFC West matchup, it’s because we did, two weeks ago in the desert as the visiting Niners prevailed in a much-tougher-than-expected 28-25 contest on Halloween.
In between, San Fran suffered its first loss, falling to the visiting Seattle Seahawks 27-24 in an overtime duel Monday night that arguably has been the best NFL game this season.
The 49ers also continue to battle the health bug with tight end George Kittle and receiver Emmanuel Sanders likely to be game-time decisions. And quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is battling some obvious shakiness after completing only 24 of 46 passes Monday for 248 yards, a touchdown and an interception, along with two lost fumbles.
Rookie QB Kyle Murray and the Cards, meanwhile, are 3-6-1 straight up but have been one of the league’s best ATS squads at 7-3, including five covers in their last six outings.
We were on Arizona last week in Tampa, and we’ll go with the Cards again here Sunday afternoon in San Fran where the home team is simply giving too many points.
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