Dolphins Patriots odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Miami Dolphins (1-3) visit the New England Patriots (1-3) Sunday. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Dolphins vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Miami has lost 3 games in a row after falling 31-12 against the Tennessee Titans Monday as a 2.5-point home favorite. QB Tyler Huntley went 14 of 22 for 96 yards while leading the team in rushing with 8 carries for 40 yards and a TD.

New England has also lost 3 games in a row after falling 30-13 at the San Francisco 49ers as a 10.5-point underdog. QB Jacoby Brissett went 19 of 32 for 168 yards with a TD and an INT. His top receiver was WR Antonio Gibson, who hauled in 3 receptions for 67 yards. The Patriots had just 73 rushing yards in the loss.

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Dolphins at Patriots odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:05 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Dolphins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Patriots -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins -1 (-110) | Patriots +1 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 35.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Dolphins at Patriots key injuries

Dolphins

OT Terron Armstead (head) questionable
S Jordan Poyer (shin) out

Patriots

S Kyle Dugger (ankle) questionable
CB Marcus Jones (groin) questionable
WR K.J. Osborn (shoulder) questionable
S Jabrill Peppers (shoulder) questionable

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Dolphins at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Dolphins 17, Patriots 13

Moneyline

BET DOLPHINS (-115).

While Miami has looked lost without QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), Sunday presents an opportunity for it to get back on track against a struggling New England team. Huntley’s ability to escape the pocket and create opportunities on the ground will provide an advantage for the Dolphins.

Against the spread

PASS.

There is better value on the Dolphins to win straight up Sunday.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 35.5 (-110).

The Dolphins have hit the Under in 3 of their 4 games this season. Miami has scored 12 or fewer points in each of its last 3 games, while the Patriots have scored 13 or fewer in back-to-back weeks. With struggling offenses on each side of the ball, the Under is the best play.

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Dolphins (8-7) and New England Patriots (7-8) are both fighting for their playoff lives this week as they square off at Gillette Stadium in Week 17. Kickoff on Sunday will be at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Dolphins vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Dolphins are stumbling into the final weeks of the season, losing each of their last 4 games after starting the year 8-3. The playoffs are still within reach, however. If the Dolphins win their last 2 games, they’ll clinch a playoff berth, which is the simplest scenario for this team entering Week 17. The offense has been inconsistent at best, scoring between 17 and 29 points during their 4-game losing streak; Miami ranks 9th in total points (365) this season.

The Patriots are in even worse shape than the Dolphins, sitting at 7-8, but they can also get into the playoffs by simply winning their final 2 games of the season. They’ve dropped 4 of their last 5 games, with their only win during that stretch coming against the Arizona Cardinals. Three of their last 4 losses have come by 7 points or fewer, so they’ve kept things close.

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Dolphins at Patriots odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:25 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Patriots -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +2.5 (-110) | Patriots -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 41 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Dolphins at Patriots key injuries

Dolphins

OT Terron Armstead (toe, pec, knee, hip) questionable
OLB Bradley Chubb (ankle, hand) questionable
OT Eric Fisher (calf) questionable
CB Xavien Howard (knee) questionable
OT Brandon Shell (shoulder) probable
QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) out

Patriots

TE Hunter Henry (knee) questionable
CB Jack Jones (knee) out
CB Marcus Jones (concussion) out
CB Jonathan Jones (chest) questionable
CB Jalen Mills (groin) questionable
WR DeVante Parker (concussion) out
TE Jonnu Smith (concussion) out
RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) probable
WR Tyquan Thornton (knee) questionable

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Dolphins at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Patriots 20, Dolphins 16

Moneyline

Tagovailoa’s absence from this game makes it even tougher to pick because the Dolphins will instead have QB Teddy Bridgewater under center. Even though he’s an experienced player who’s started 64 games in his career, he threw 3 INTs in 2 games this season, both of which were losses by Miami.

As unimpressive as the Patriots’ offense has been this year, this is the type of game Bill Belichick wins with solid coaching. I’ll take the PATRIOTS (-145) to win outright at home against their division rivals.

Against the spread

The Patriots likely wouldn’t be favored if Tagovailoa were playing in this one, but with Tua out, New England looks like the better team, especially at home in December.

The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Dolphins at home, which is a trend I think continues this week. Bet the PATRIOTS -2.5 (-110) to cover at Gillette.

Over/Under

These are inconsistent offenses led by underwhelming quarterbacks. The Patriots defense is one of the best in the league, however, and should give Bridgewater a lot of trouble if the coverage can hold up despite some starters likely missing from the secondary.

While the Dolphins’ defense has allowed the 6th-most points in the league, QB Mac Jones is having a rough year and won’t lead many touchdown drives. Bet the UNDER 41 (-112).

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NFL Week 1 Can’t-Miss Parlay: 3 bets you can count on

Assessing the 3 best parlay bet options for Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season. Lock-in these wagers to maximize your payday.

The 2021 NFL season got off to a flying start Thursday night as Tom Brady and the defending-champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers outduel Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.

Even if you missed on the Cowboys cover or the over, which flew past the total in the third quarter, there remain plenty of other prime Week 1 wagering opportunities with 15 games remaining. Here’s a three-leg, can’t-miss parlay to give your NFL bankroll an opening-week boost …

Also see: Week 1 best bets

NFL can’t miss parlay: Week 1

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.

Leg 1: San Francisco 49ers -8.5 (-110) at Detroit Lions

At 6-10 in 2020, the Niners only won one more game than the Lions, but the franchises have been moving in opposite directions ever since. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s crew in San Francisco has almost all of its primary players, including QB Jimmy Garoppolo, TE George Kittle and defensive standout Nick Bosa back and healthy after enduring the league’s worst injury situation in 2020.

They’ve also added some intriguing new pieces in rookie QB Trey Lance and RB Trey Sermon, making Shanahan’s daunting offensive schemes even more dangerous and unpredictable heading into Week 1’s clean slate.

The Lions, meanwhile, downgraded quarterbacks in trading longtime starter Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff, questionably handed over the squad to a quirky and unproven head coach in Dan Campbell and didn’t do nearly enough to shore up a defense that was scorched for the most average points (32.4) and total yards (419.8) per game in 2020.

Take the reinvigorated 49ERS and don’t fret over laying the 8.5 points on the road.

Also see: 49ers-Lions picks and predictions

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Leg 2: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Two young quarterbacks, including Pats rookie Mac Jones making his first start.

Two coaching staffs who know each other very well, including Patriots-defensive-coordinator-turned-Dolphins-head-coach Brian Flores.

Two above-average defenses, including the reinforced and revitalized Pats.

Two 2020 matchups that produced totals of 32 and 34 points.

We’re going with the UNDER 43.5 (-110).

Also see: Dolphins-Patriots picks and predictions

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Leg 3: Denver Broncos -3.5 (+105) at New York Giants

Both teams finished among the league’s bottom 12 a season ago, but the Broncos look to have made the most significant offseason strides.

The Giants’ injury-wracked offense, featuring turnover-prone QB Daniel Jones and one of the league’s worst offensive lines, looks to be overmatched against an improved Denver D returning Von Miller and featuring what looks to be one of the league’s elite secondaries.

So, if new QB Teddy Bridgewater can just bring a steady hand to the team’s talented young offense, the BRONCOS shouldn’t have too much trouble covering a road spread of 3.5 points (-135).

Also see: Broncos-Giants picks and predictions

Total parlay payout

Bet $100 to win $647.14

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing the Week 1 Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Dolphins visit Gillette Stadium Sunday to tangle with the New England Patriots in their regular-season opener. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Dolphins vs. Patriots odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Miami improved by five wins from 2019 to 2020 with a 10-6 record in head coach Brian Flores’ second season and tied the Buffalo Bills with the highest regular-season cover rate at 11-5 against the spread.

New England finished just 7-9 last season and wound up selecting QB Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The 2020 season was the Patriots’ first sub-.500 campaign since head coach Bill Belichick’s first year on the job in 2000.

The reasons are obvious: It was the first season in the post-Tom Brady era and the Patriots had more than double the next-most adjusted games lost due to COVID-19 last year, according to Football Outsiders.

Also see: NFL team win totals

Dolphins at Patriots odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Dolphins +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Patriots -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +3.5 (-108) | Patriots -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Dolphins at Patriots key injuries

Dolphins

WR Will Fuller (suspended) out
WR Preston Williams (foot) questionable

Patriots

WR Nelson Algholor (ankle) questionable
CB Jalen Mills (ankle) questionable
CB Stephon Gilmore (quadriceps) out

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Dolphins at Patriots odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Dolphins 23, Patriots 20

Money line

Slight “LEAN” to the DOLPHINS (+160) for a quarter unit, if at all, because Miami plus the points is a wiser wager but there’s enough value with the underdog to sprinkle some change on the money line.

This game opened with New England laying just -125 on the money line before the Patriots were dropped 75 cents on the dollar.

Essentially, my idea is to fade that line movement because it’s due to New England making Jones the starting quarterback against one of the best defensive head coaches in the league.

New England’s price is increasing because the media is chirping about the more popular team. There’s no way the Patriots should be this heavy of a favorite starting a rookie in Week 1 with mediocre receivers.

Also see: Week 1 staff picks

Against the spread

Definitely BET the DOLPHINS +3.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of Miami’s money line as a fade against a lopsided betting market that has pushed this line past the key number of 3.

Furthermore, over the past five seasons, road underdogs are 14-7-1 ATS against divisional foes in Week 1. Miami is also tied for the second-best cover rate in division games (8-4 ATS) since hiring Flores.

Lastly, I’m higher than the market on Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s offense in his second season.

Tua came into his rookie season rehabbing a dislocated hip injury he suffered in college, didn’t get the benefit of a normal offseason due to the COVID pandemic and played in an offense built for former Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Oh, and the Dolphins wide receiver room had the most adjusted games lost due to injury last season.

Over/Under

Dolphins-Patriots has all the makings of a low-scoring game with two young quarterbacks going against defensive wizards at head coach.

However, the market feels the same way and has hammered the Under so much so that sportsbooks have moved the total down from the 46.5-point opener to the listed number.

I hate following a crowd in sports betting and we are getting the worst of the number. PASS ON THE TOTAL.

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