Darrell Henderson fantasy football

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 2

The most important risers and fallers entering Week 2.

It is amazing how an injury to one player can impact numerous fantasy football rosters. On Sunday night of Week 1, one such injury changed the landscape of the NFC East in general and the Dallas Cowboys in particular.

It has become common practice in the NFL for a team to save money by having a journeyman backup and pray their starter doesn’t get injured. For the Cowboys and QB Dak Prescott, that prayer went unanswered.

Prescott had surgery Monday to repair his throwing thumb with a six- to eight-week timetable for his return.

There were questions surrounding the fantasy stock of Cowboys players before Prescott went down after the team traded Amari Cooper and lost Michael Gallup and James Washington to injury.

Now, everyone’s value on the team comes into question. If the organization decides to go with backup Cooper Rush, who is a backup for a reason, what is CeeDee Lamb’s value? If defenses don’t have to respect the pass, what does that do to the value of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in the run game?

Even the Cowboys kicker is rendered moot.

It’s difficult to believe that one player can make that much of a difference to so many others, but the Cowboys may be dead in the water one game into the season – much to the delight of fans who don’t like the self-proclaimed America’s Team. For fantasy owners, the loss could have devastating implications.

Here is the Week 2 Fantasy Football Market Report.

Fantasy football preview: RB Cam Akers, Rams

After a lost year, how much stock should gamers put in to an Akers ascension?

There are players that those who fashion themselves fantasy football experts fawn over in an attempt to be ahead of the curve and proclaim the anointing of the “next big thing”. Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers has been the bane of those “smartest guy in the room” types. A second-round pick in 2020, Akers was projected to checker-jump Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson in short order. It didn’t happen.

Although Akers led the Rams in rushing attempts (145) as a rookie, it was a three-man show – Henderson had 138 carries and Brown had 101. What Sean McVay has always envisioned in his offense is one back to carry the workload with backups riding the pine. He wanted that player to be Akers, but it didn’t happen after going down early in Week 2 and missing the next three games. As is the journey of a rookie in the NFL, guys who have proved themselves get precedence if a newcomer can’t go, and veterans don’t give up their spot without a fight.

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After three months in part-time purgatory, at the end of the season, the Rams dedicated themselves to letting Akers be the main man. In the last four games he played in the regular season, he had 86 carries and built fantasy steam again. In L.A.’s two playoff games, he had 46 carries – the other Rams running backs combined had nine.

Heading into 2021 Akers was again being proclaimed as a RB1 messiah by the touts, capable of 1,500 yards and a dozen touchdowns.

That second endorsement crashed and burned when Akers suffered a torn Achilles shortly before training camp. It’s an injury typically has a timetable for return of one year for those who make it back. Akers came back to play briefly in Week 18 and had 67 carries in the Rams’ four-game Super Bowl run. Sony Michel was next with just 26 carries, and he’s no longer on the roster.

Despite spotty regular season production, when the Rams season has been on the line, Akers has been the only option used.

So here we go again. Third time’s the charm, right? Ideally, Akers will be the running back McVay envisioned two years ago and pile up carries with the league leaders. Henderson remains, which gives the Rams the security of having a consistent (albeit not spectacular) Plan B in place in the event Akers struggles, but the clear intention is that Akers will shoulder the running load when healthy, even though he isn’t much of a receiver.

Fantasy football outlook

There is where the rub lies. In two seasons (33 games), Akers has only played 14 of them and hasn’t moved the needle in the fantasy football realm. Many of those who took Akers in 2020 didn’t want him in 2021. Those who were burned last year don’t want him now. Yet, he has a high ranking without proving himself worthy of the distinction.

Due to system designs, opportunity arguably matters more at running back than any other position. The potential to be a go-to guy – the Rams will never have an RB-by-committee again if they can avoid it – makes Akers a mid-RB2 candidate. Eventually, the Akers takers will be the smartest owners in the room.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 8

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 8.

There was a time that if a quarterback threw 400 passes, there was something wrong with the offense – either it had no run game or the defense was awful and required the offense to throw to try to stay in games they were losing.

Those days are over. Now 500 is the new benchmark and is the reason why fantasy football quarterbacks tend to be devalued – because so many can put up big numbers. This is a growing phenomenon. In 2018, 15 quarterbacks threw 500 or more passes, including four throwing more than 600. In 2019, 15 threw 500 times or more with four topping 600. Last season, 15 threw 500 or more passes with three throwing more than 600 times and both of the Super Bowl quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes) were in the top five for pass attempts.

Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow has thrown 212 passes, which, based on the historical 16-game schedule, would have him on pace to throw 485 times – and he ranks 24th in pass attempts. Brady leads the league with 303 pass attempts, which, if the pace continues, would see him finish the season (based on 16 games, not 17) throwing 693 passes.

While the 17-game schedule will change team and league records with the additional game to pile up stats, we’re at a strange time in the league where numbers created by quarterbacks and receivers continue to grow, and there’s no reason to think they will ever come back down.

You still have to be able to run effectively to win in the postseason, but it doesn’t seem to matter nearly as much in the regular season.

Here is the Week 8 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

TE C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals

At a time when tight end owners are feeling the pinch with George Kittle on IR, Darren Waller missing time, and just about everyone not named Travis Kelce struggling to put up consistent numbers, Uzomah had been s pleasant surprise. Over his last four games, he has posted more than 90 yards twice and scored five touchdowns. The majority of fantasy tight ends are played in hopes of picking up 40 or 50 yards and scoring a touchdown. Uzomah is making it harder to keep him out of lineups, and his price for daily players is going up as he becomes a bigger part of the Bengals offense.

RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots

It’s been a common refrain among fantasy owners for years that running backs in Bill Belichick’s offense don’t get the ball consistently enough and they’re all role players. Not this season. Harris has 95 carries – almost three times the number of carries for the other Patriots running backs combined (37) – has three 100-yard rushing games, and has scored five touchdowns. In his last two games, he has rushed 32 times for 207 yards and three TDs. He may not seem like a “must play,” but those numbers speak for themselves.

WR A.J. Green, Arizona Cardinals

Green went undrafted in most leagues, and there has been good reason for that – he’s fourth on his team in receptions. However, he has been targeted six or more times in five of seven games and, over his last four games, has 66 or more receiving yards in three of them. He is Kyler Murray’s go-to deep threat, averaging almost 17 yards per reception – three yards more per catch than Christian Kirk and four more than DeAndre Hopkins. He isn’t a guy you want to play every week, but he has a role in a high-powered offense, which brings value with it.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

All the talk around Miami is the potential that Deshaun Watson will be coming to town. Apparently Tua has heard those words. After missing three games due to injury, he’s had the most prolific two-week passing stretch of career, throwing for 620 yards and six touchdowns. There’s no telling if there is truth to the Watson rumors of whether Tagovailoa will be part of that trade or not, but he’s playing like a man who fears his job is on the line. While it isn’t translating into wins, it’s making fantasy owners giddy with excitement.

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RB Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams

When Cam Akers went down with an Achilles injury in July and Sony Michel was later acquired, the thought was they would be sharing the workload. That hasn’t been the case. Of the six games he has played, Henderson has never had fewer than 13 carries, is averaging 16 carries, and has scored five touchdowns. In the four games since missing Week 3 game against the Buccaneers, Henderson has 66 rushing attempts, while Michel has just 25. For what he has shown in Akers’ absence, he has earned his opportunity to stake his claim to playing time.

Fantasy Football Fallers

WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

Lack of production for Robinson has been a problem all season. He has played in all seven games and has caught just 23 passes. His high-water mark for receiving yardage in a game is just 63, he has five games with 35 or fewer receiving yards, and has scored just one touchdown. For a guy who came to rosters with the expectation of being an every-week starter, only the desperate are still playing A-Rob on weekly basis – and are getting burned consistently for doing it.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

For a guy who, by all accounts, is playing for his football life as a starter. He can’t help but be looking over his shoulder at Trey Lance, and it sure doesn’t look like it he’s doing anything but paving the road for the transition. In the five games he has started, he has three games with 190 or fewer pass yards and, in his last two starts since the open competition with Lance began, he has thrown for just 346 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Everyone knows the job will eventually go to Lance, but Jimmy G is doing his best to speed up that process.

WR Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans

People are still treating Jones like the first-ballot Hall of Famer he is, but the numbers don’t lie and speak the truth that Jones is at the tail end of his career. He has missed two of the seven games the Titans have played and, of the five he has played in, he has more than three receptions in just one of them. He has only one game with 60 or more receiving yards, and his next touchdown as a Titan will be his first touchdown as a Titan. Playing him in fantasy lineups now is being done much more on reputation and recollection than his current production.

RB Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Up until Tampa Bay got to the playoffs last season, Jones was the main man in the Bucs backfield and Leonard Fournette was the No. 2 option. Fournette took over in the postseason and hasn’t looked back. Through seven games, Jones has just 41 carries for 181 yards and one touchdown with just one appearance with more than 27 rushing yards, which came in a blowout Sunday as Fournette was being rested. He isn’t used as a receiving back, because he has brought nothing to the table this season (three catches, 33 yards, no TDs). At this point, the only way Jones retains any fantasy value is if Fournette gets hurt. Until then, he’s little more than a handcuff – and not a productive one. Nobody likes to leave the defending Super Bowl champ, but a trade might be the best thing his career.

WR Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

In his first season with the Panthers, Anderson was a bargain find in PPR leagues, catching 95 passes for 1,096 yards and three touchdowns. He was touted as having chic fantasy star potential as an upside guy heading into this season. The results so far? 18 catches (on 49 targets!) for just 204 yards and two touchdowns. Things have gotten worse as the season has gone along. In his last three games, despite being targeted 25 times, he has caught just eight passes for 55 yards and one TD. Unless dropped passes becomes a way to score points in fantasy leagues, Anderson does more harm than good to an owner.

Fantasy football fallout of Sony Michel trade to Rams

What to expect in fantasy football after the Michel trade

The New England Patriots have traded running back Sony Michel to the Los Angeles Rams for what essentially will be a fourth-round draft pick.

What a difference a day can make, huh?

It was seemingly inevitable the Pats would part ways with their former first-round rusher, whose inability to stay on the field ultimately spurred this decision. While Michel is currently is healthy, his extended absences have given a glimpse into what Damien Harris can do, and the preseason brilliance of rookie Rhamondre Stevenson also helped fan the flames.

The Rams were facing a backfield led by third-year man Darrell Henderson after losing Cam Akers to injury in the offseason. Just yesterday, Henderson’s thumb issue was considered behind him as he participated in 11-on-11 drills after getting a positive medical report of no structural damage. Prior to the injury, the Rams maintained they were going to roll with him as their featured back, sprinkling in untested backups Xavier Jones and Jake Funk along the way.

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Regardless of whether there always was some intention to bring in a veteran to complement Henderson or the thumb injury set this in motion, the tandem will make a nice one-two punch.

Michel is a more conventional between-the-tackles type who has the ability to bounce on zone-blocking and can just barely wheel his way to the corner. Henderson, though, is a more polished pass-catching back, and offers a slight bit more juice.

Fantasy football advice

Interestingly, though, if the injury concern about Henderson is what motivated LA to acquire another back, why pick one who has missed 10 games in his first three years? Nevertheless, any fantasy gamer investing in either back must be at least aware of the elevated injury concern.

Both backs will be shielded by the strong arm of Matthew Stafford to keep defenders from stacking the trenches. This offense uses play-action passing as much or more than any team, meaning the running game has to be no worse than functional. It’s easy to assume it will be a pass-laden script because of the Stafford trade. Don’t be so easily fooled.

Neither running back is a central figure for dynasty leagues, and their long-term value really doesn’t change to any noticeable degree following the trade. Over the course of time, both profile as fringe starting lineup considerations, where ever they may land.

Darrell Henderson

Owners who have already drafted Henderson should look to add Michel from the waiver wire as soon as their league rules permit a move. After all, Henderson has missed time with high-ankle sprains each of the past two years, including one that required surgery in 2019.

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For now, he should be treated as the primary guy and is likely to see the majority of the touches, if both backs remain healthy, but we’re talking something like 60/40 or 55/45 here. Neither back is likely to dominate the touches with any consistency, though a “hot-hand approach” is likely some weeks.

Henderson’s ADP will tumble from 3:10 as the 19th RB chosen down to somewhere in the Round 6-7 range. He has more appeal in PPR setups than TD-heavy leagues, and there is added early-season value in him already knowing the offense going in. He should net out as a weekly flex play.

Sony Michel

Michel’s stock has only way direction it is going to travel. He wasn’t even being drafted in the top 62 backs, according to FFCalculator.com. He should see his placement rise into roughly Round 8 or so initially, but if the window to learn the offense were longer, Michel would find enough suitors to take him as early as the sixth.

Even though it’s likely Henderson’s job to lose, especially early on, once Michel learns the playbook in an offense that will indeed run the rock, he has a potential to be a touchdown-scoring threat. In a best-case scenario, he’s a weekly flex play with the occasional RB2 showing. Be patient, and linking the two backs together is not a bad idea.

New England Patriots fantasy football outlook

A quick look at this backfield’s loss of Michel means the starting job should be Harris’ to lose. He has faced injury issues of his own so far in his young career, but the third-year bull has Stevenson looking over his shoulder. The leash will be short for Harris.

New England wants to run, run, run, play great defense, and run some more. There will be opportunities for both Harris and Stevenson to offer fantasy utility, while James White remains the third-down back. His role was greatly diminished in 2020 after Tom Brady moved south. The loss of Michel doesn’t move the needle for White’s stock.

The biggest winner here is Stevenson. He has scored four touchdowns through the first two preseason games, looking every bit the part of an NFL-capable back. Harris has been put on notice, but that doesn’t make him ready to be sent to the pasture just yet. The Alabama product will be given a fair shake behind a quality offensive line.

Both backs will lose touchdown opportunities to Cam Newton. A move to Mac Jones at quarterback actually would help both of their fantasy offerings, even if it means more defenders closer to the line of scrimmage with greater frequency.

Harris is a low-upside RB2 for the time being, and he’s really even more of a No. 3 in PPR scoring. Stevenson, the wild card, is depth material for now, and he should be considered a handcuff of sorts for Harris. It’s tough to commit so much draft stock into this backfield, however.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 7

Checking in on the fantasy football options whose value is rising and falling.

One of the things I believe that has made me consistently successful in fantasy football leagues is that I find a way to avoid teams altogether. This year as I prepared for the one fantasy football draft and one fantasy football auction that mean most to me, my list of teams I wanted nothing to do with under any circumstance was limited to the New York Jets, Washington Football Team and Jacksonville Jaguars. I entered the fray knowing there was no way I was going to end up with anyone on any of those teams. I would take Mecole Hardman before I took Terry McLaurin, D.J. Chark or Jamison Crowder…

That’s me.

Now I’m wondering if I want anyone from the NFC East – and that includes Dallas Cowboys RB Zeke Elliott. Saquon and Dak are gone. The Eagles can’t keep anyone but Carson Wentz healthy (who would have figured that?). As least Dak could post giant fantasy football numbers because his defense stunk. Saquon was the only Giant I wanted and I still want nobody from WFT — which is more in line with WTF.

Through six weeks of the season, the teams of the NFC East are a dumpster fire. They have a combined record of 5-18-1. If you take the games in which they didn’t play each other and one team likely had to win, their record is 2-15-1 outside the division.

This is bad on a scale rarely seen.

The good news? There is none.

The bad news? If things hold up in the NFL and the fantasy football playoffs are held in Weeks 14-16, of the 12 games those four teams will play, only one of them will be against a division opponent (when Dallas is scheduled to play Philly in Week 16). At least if they were playing each other, you could get excited about the inept possibilities.

In the leagues that matter to me, I am fortunately underrepresented by teams from the NFC East. More of you should join me.

Here is the Week 7 Fantasy Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For most of his short career, Jones has been a player with a lot of talent who never put it all together. In his first two seasons, he never rushed for more than 80 yards in a game. In his last three, he has topped 100 yards in each rushing 60 times for 330 yards and two touchdowns. It’s taken him two-and-half years to live up to being a big deal in Tampa, but he’s finally done it.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

His stock took a dive (so did his team) to start the year, but people forget he played the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers in those game – and two were on the road. Once he got past that hurdle, over the last three games, he has topped 300 yards in each – throwing for 994 yards and nine touchdowns. Those are the kind of numbers he was drafted for and the reason he is almost unbenchable.

Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers

When Christian McCaffrey went down, seeing as he was the No. 1 overall pick in most leagues, it was a death blow. But, those who handcuffed McCaffrey with Davis have been keeping their heads above water. In the four games McCaffrey has been out, Davis has two games with 84 or more rushing yards and has scored a touchdown in each game. His role may greatly diminish when McCaffrey returns, but he has been a solid RB2 in any format.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Thielen was drafted to be a borderline WR1 – a guy barely in or barely out of the top 10 on draft day. But, while Justin Jefferson has been stealing the headlines of late, Thielen has seven touchdowns in six games and only has one game in which he didn’t score. He is a machine and the guy Kirk Cousins looks to when he needs a big catch. Minnesota may stink and his quarterback is a bum, but Thielen just keeps on rolling.

Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Henderson has become one of the more interesting backs this season as the guy grabbing the job to replace Todd Gurley. In the opener, he had just three carries for six yards. But, in the five games since, he has rushed for 80 or more yards three times and has scored four touchdowns. His disparity just keeps growing, even with Malcolm Brown and rookie Cam Akers available.

Fantasy Football Fallers

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

What made Jackson the MVP last year was that he was an incredible rushing threat, but also had three or more TD passes in seven of 15 games. This season, the only game he had three passing TDs was Week 1. He’s still someone I wish I had in every league. He’ll never be benched, but he hasn’t been light’s out, which is what everyone who took him as the first or second fantasy QB expected. I never want to go up against him, but he has yet to have that one-man gang game that blows an opponent out of the water.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns

The knock on Landry is that his value is much higher in PPR leagues because he has never been known as a touchdown threat. But, he’s been a bust in any format. He doesn’t have more than five receptions in any game, has just two games with more than 50 receiving yards (61 and 88) and his next touchdown will be his first touchdown. He’s pushed himself out of lineups and firmly in trade talks to move him as a name, not for his production.

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills

He had the chance to be the go-to guy in the run game, especially when injuries made him about the only option. But, through six games, he has just one touchdown, brings little as a receiver in the Bills offense and, over the last three games, has rushed 39 times for just 113 yards. He is becoming a harder sell all the time to justify starting every week.

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

This a real head-scratcher. He’s expected to miss three or so weeks, but that is actually a good thing for Ertz owners. At a time when some tight ends can dominate weeks, Ertz was considered one of them, but hasn’t been that. Not even close. In six games, he has more than 42 yards receiving just once, less than 20 in half of them and has just one catch of more than 12 yards. At least he doesn’t hurt an owner now because his bad games don’t count against them.

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

You weren’t expecting a ton of touchdowns from Edelman, but you were expecting receptions and yards. In five games, he has just 20 catches for 302 yards – with eight receptions and 179 yards coming in one game. He proved against Seattle in Week 2 that he still has dominance in him, but, over the last three games, he has caught just seven passes for 66 yards. He’s borderline dump-worthy for those with deep rosters.