Predicting where the top 21 free agents will land

From Tom Brady to Amari Cooper to Philip Rivers, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar identifies likely fits for this year’s top NFL free agents.

There are all kinds of reasons players end up on new teams in free agency. The best reason, of course, is that a front office and a group of coaches will correctly estimate that the player fits perfectly in the new team’s set of schemes and concepts. Other teams prefer to take their existing cap space, throw stuff against the wall and see if anything sticks. No matter the reason, here’s where we think the top 21 players in the upcoming free-agent class will land.

This list doesn’t include players who have been given the franchise tag by their current teams, although those moves can lead to sign-and-trade deals — in the case of Jacksonville Jaguars edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue, that scenario seems especially possible. And with Drew Brees saying that he’s coming back to the Saints and reportedly willing to take a below-market deal to do so, he’s off the list as well. These are the top 21 potential free agents at this point, and where we think they will land based on positional need, player value and team cap flexibility.

Tom Brady: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports)

It sounds crazy to some, but there’s no guarantee that Brady will be back with the Patriots after 20 fairly successful seasons. Following a frustrating 2019 campaign in which he struggled with timing and accuracy with receivers who couldn’t consistently gain separation, Brady fell short of the Super Bowl despite a Patriots defense that was one of the best in recent memory. One might assume the Patriots can improve that situation in the offseason, but what if Brady is simply looking for a change of scenery? He would require a team that is on a championship curve minus the quarterback, a group of receivers who can beat coverage and an offensive play-designer who can match Brady’s remaining talents with the right scheme.

The Buccaneers come in with a check-check-check scenario. Todd Bowles coordinated a defense that rose from dead last to fifth overall in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are one of the NFL’s most formidable receiving duos, and if you can get Bruce Arians to use his tight ends in the passing game, there’s the dynamic duo of Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. When matching Brady and Arians together, as some observers have tried to do based on this Tampa Bay Times report that the Bucs are “all in” on the idea of Brady, many will cite Arians’ preferred deep passing attack and Brady’s supposedly dead arm. Well, last season, even with an underwhelming group of targets, Brady still completed 26 of 67 passes of 20 or more air yards for 749 yards, with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Plus, Arians’ passing game is more than just a bunch of go routes — think more of three levels to the quarterback’s front side, and quick bailout routes to the back side.

So, when you consider alternate accommodations for Tom Brady, Tampa Bay is definitely one destination to consider.

The most underrated free agents in the 2020 league year

Every year, there are free agents ready to make their front offices look very smart with their signing. Here are 11 such players for 2020.

NFL teams can of course “win” free agency by bidding high on the biggest-ticket players and having those players perform as expected. But for every one of those positive examples, it seems that there’s at least two cases in which big-money signings go south. More often than not, teams that come out of free agency with the best possible cost/benefit ratio are the ones that are able to identify under-the-radar players who fit their specific schemes and coaching staffs.

Sometimes, those players are underrated because it just took a while for the proverbial light to go on. Other times, it is that example of a player’s skill set finally fitting into the ideal playbook. And then, there are those times when a player who has previously disappointed signs on the cheap somewhere and performs to his potential both physically and personally.

Whatever the reasons, here are 11 upcoming free agents that could make their current teams — or their new teams — very happy for the money spent.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

(Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports)

The NFL has one question for Ryan Tannehill as it heads into the 2020 league year: Was 2019 a fluke, or is this what we can expect from now on?

Here’s what we know: When he took the Titans’ starting job from an ineffective Marcus Mariota in Week 7, Tannehill had thrown 123 touchdowns and 75 interceptions in a decent, but hardly sparkling, six-year tenure with the Dolphins. But something clicked with Tannehill and Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith (who you should put on your short lists of future head coaches). The Titans were 2-4 after Mariota’s last start, having scored seven total points in their last two games. They then finished the season 9-7 and made it all the way to the AFC Championship game with Tannehill, who led the league in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, yards per completion, net yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt, and quarterback rating.

Tannehill finished ninth in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (season-cumulative opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics) among quarterbacks, and fifth in DVOA (FO’s per-play opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics) when he had finished 31st and 32nd in those ratings the year before. Tannehill also added a much-needed deep passing element to Tennessee’s offense, completing 26 of 65 passes of 20 or more air yards for 611 yards, five touhdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 108.0. Only Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins threw more play-action touchdowns than Tannehill’s 11, and when you add in his athleticism to break the pocket, he certainly looks like a complete quarterback, however he got here.

The tape confirms that Tannehill has become a nuanced player, expert in many of the required facets of the quarterback position, Those who argue against his ascent using the one-year wonder theory may be missing the point — every player is different, and not all are subject to the confines of historical modeling. Tannehill is a system quarterback like every other quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t arrived.

Would-be-Jets target Yannick Ngakoue to be tagged by Jaguars

Potential Jets target Yannick Ngakoue expected to be franchise tagged by Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars will use their franchise tag on defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, according to ESPN. Ngakoue would have been a Jets target in free agency, but any possible union between the two is now more complicated.

The tag will allow Jacksonville to try and trade Ngakoue if the two sides cannot come to an agreement on a contract extension. Ngakoue has been adamant that he doesn’t want to return Jacksonville and took to Twitter to reaffirm this Monday morning.

The franchise tag carries an approximate salary of $19.3 million in 2020. Ngakoue has made it pretty clear that he has no intention of signing the franchise tag.

Whether the Jaguars plan to keep Ngakoue remains to be seen. In the meantime, they also could be following the strategy of the Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs just an offseason ago, when both teams tagged and traded defensive ends Frank Clark and Dee Ford, respectively.

Despite Jamal Adams naming Ngakoue to his wishlist of free agents, it’s hard to envision the Jets forfeiting a high-end draft choice for Ngakoue in addition to signing him to a lofty contract. Adams also named edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and Dante Fowler Jr. as fits for the Jets.

Joe Douglas has mentioned getting an edge rusher at the top of the Jets’ to-do list this offseason. Sacks haven’t been easy to come by for New York, which will surely look to get more out of that position, whether it’s acquiring Ngakoue or targeting Clowney, Fowler, Matthew Judon and Shaquil Barrett.

At the age of 24, Ngakoue has already amassed 37.5 career sacks, as well as 14 forced fumbles. He had eight sacks and set a career-high with 41 tackles and tied his career-high with 13 tackles for loss in 2019.

It’s unlikely the Jets will enter the Ngakoue sweepstakes due to the presumably high-price tag of a high Day 2 pick. Regardless, the Jets will seek an edge rusher who can bring an immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball.

5 free agent outside linebackers for Cardinals to consider

One big way to help improve Arizona’s defense? Get Chandler Jones some help.

It isn’t a position that gets discussed nearly as much as the offensive line, defensive line or wide receiver, but the Arizona Cardinals need to address the outside linebacker position opposite Chandler Jones this offseason.

Terrell Suggs was cut late in the season and Cassius Marsh will be a free agent. That leaves the Cardinals with Haason Reddick and young players.

With cap space available, who are some players the Cardinals could target when free agency begins next month?

Dante Fowler Jr. 

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Fowler has actually been linked to the Cardinals by some, but in reality, coming from Wade Phillips defense in L.A., he makes a lot of sense if his price tag is not too high.

With Chandler Jones attracting much of the attention on the opposite side, Fowler could put up similar numbers to last year’s 12 sacks, when he was aided by having Aaron Donald on the inside.

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20 candidates for NFL franchise or transition tags

Dak Prescott heads a list of 20 candidates for the NFL’s franchise and tags.

When all else failed in negotiations in past years, NFL teams had the option of using either the franchise tag or transition tag to keep a player they didn’t want walking away as a free agent. This year is a little different. In the final year of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams are allowed to use both the franchise and transition tags.

The tags can be designated between Feb. 25 and March 10. There are two types of franchise tags, exclusive and non-exclusive. A player with the non-exclusive franchise tag can negotiate with other teams. If an offer is received from outside, the current team has the option to match the offer or receive two first-round draft picks as compensation. The franchise tag is calculated by the average of the top five salaries at a given position or 120 percent of the player’s salary from last year (whichever number is greater).

The transition tag is valued at an average of the top 10 salaries at the player’s position or 120 percent of his salary from the previous year. There’s one big difference between the franchise and transition tags. With the transition tag, the current team receives no compensation if it elects to not match an offer from another team.

Some players, such as New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, New England quarterback Tom Brady and Seattle defensive end Jadeveon Clowney have language in their contracts that forbids the use of franchise and transition tags.

Let’s take a look at the top candidates for franchise or transition tags in 2020:

20. James Bradberry, CB, Carolina Panthers

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

General manager Marty Hurney has told Bradberry the team wants to keep him. That makes sense because Bradberry is Carolina’s best cornerback in a division that features receivers Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. But there’s a potential problem on the horizon. Former Carolina coach Ron Rivera is now in Washington and Bradberry was one of his favorites. The best way to box out Rivera may be to franchise Bradberry.

Jalen Ramsey, Allen Robinson share thoughts on Twitter after NFLPA wins grievance over Jags

With the NFLPA winning its grievance against the Jacksonville Jaguars it was only a matter of time before players started chiming in on the situation and former cornerback Jalen Ramsey unsurprisingly jumped on the opportunity. Like his teammate …

With the NFLPA winning its grievance against the Jacksonville Jaguars it was only a matter of time before players started chiming in on the situation and former cornerback Jalen Ramsey unsurprisingly jumped on the opportunity. Like his teammate Dante Fowler Jr. did, Ramsey took to social media to share his thoughts and posted the following tweet:

As you all at home can see, former Jags receiver Allen Robinson had a response as well, which may be hard to judge. However, it’s worth noting that Robinson is on record for saying he felt that he also needed to get away from the Jags’ organization.

As for Ramsey, it’s pretty much stating the obvious that Coughlin was one of the reasons he left, but he probably wasn’t the only reason he left. Being the star he is, it shouldn’t be ruled out that Ramsey also wanted to land in a more desirable market where he could expand his career beyond football.

Regardless, it’s clear the Jags are a circus at this point. With a rebuild coming up, fans are right to be concerned at the moment because the perception of the team isn’t good right now, which will make the process an uphill battle.

Former Jags DE Dante Fowler Jr. shares thoughts on winning grievance vs. organization

Dante Fowler was revealed to be the player who won the recent grievance against the Jags. He took to Twitter to share his brief thoughts.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were slammed yesterday by the NFLPA after it was reported that an arbitrator ruled in their favor against the organization after the team fined a player over $700,000 for rehab treatments that weren’t mandatory. With the modern-day web being as powerful as it is, it didn’t take long to find out who the player was in former defensive end Dante Fowler Jr. thanks to Mark Long of the Associated Press.

Eventually, Fowler himself came to the light and shared some comments of his own via social media. In a nutshell, he was happy but felt the Jags’ front office hated him based on their actions.

Fowler was traded to the Los Angeles Rams in October of 2018, and as fans expected, the move was fueled by more than the Jags’ upcoming cap situation in 2019. It’s worth noting Fowler had some off the field issues that occurred with the Jags prior, most notably the misdemeanor charges filed against him in 2017, so that likely didn’t help the relationship between him and the Jags either.

There are likely more like Fowler currently on the team who simply don’t like how things have gone under football executive Tom Coughlin and owner Shad Khan. With that being the case, it might be wise of Khan to start removing the stench of this current regime away from the franchise as soon as possible because waiting really does him no good at this point.

Tom Coughlin’s tyrannical approach has completely destroyed the Jaguars and it’s time to move on

Tom Coughlin inherited a promising roster and needed only two years to ruin it and draw the ire of the NFLPA.

Tom Coughlin’s return to Jacksonville started off so well. During his first season in charge of the Jaguars front office, the team made it all the way to the AFC Championship and was one missed call by the refs — Myles Jack wasn’t down — away from beating the Patriots and getting to a Super Bowl.

It’s been all downhill from there, though. And things may have hit rock bottom on Monday when the NFL Players Association announced that it had won a grievance against the Jaguars after an arbitrator ruled that the team violated the CBA for fining an unnamed player $700,000 for not showing up to “mandatory” offseason treatment sessions that weren’t actually mandatory.

Along with that announcement, the NFLPA also released this scathing statement…

Dante Fowler Jr., now a member of the Los Angeles Rams, confirmed reports that he was that unnamed player…

One passage from the statement is particularly noteworthy…

“In the last two years, more than 25% of grievances filed by players in the entire league have been filed against the Jaguars. You as players may want to consider this when you have a chance to select your next club.”

That stat would be more shocking if not for Old Man Coughlin’s reputation as a football tyrant. I didn’t think Shad Khan needed any more reasons to move on from Coughlin after the last two seasons, but I don’t know how he survives this based on that last sentence. Remember, this letter was sent to every player in the league.

“You as players may want to consider this when you have a chance to select your next club.”

It’s going to be awfully difficult to convince free agents to come to Jacksonville with that hanging over the organization. Especially with Coughlin still employed.

If Coughlin had been doing a better job building the team, he’d probably survive this. But he’s made numerous roster-building mistakes, which includes botching the quarterback situation two years in a row. A year after out-bidding themselves to extend Blake Bortles (and subsequently cutting him and suffering the largest dead money hit in league history in the process), Coughlin then gave career backup Nick Foles an $88 million contract. Why was that contract so big when no other team seemed interested in signing Foles?

Well, you see, the Jaguars wanted to send a message to the team that Foles was their man.

He was the man … for about four starts. After struggling, Foles was benched for sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew last month, and now the Jaguars are stuck with an expensive backup for at least one more season. In order to get out of the deal, Jacksonville would likely have to give up a valuable draft pick to convince a team with cap space to spare to take on Foles’ horrible contract.

It’s not like the Jaguars didn’t have cheaper (and more promising) options for fixing the quarterback situation. Colin Kaepernick, who may not have been a great starter during his career but was certainly better than Bortles and Foles, has been freely available for years, and the Jaguars passed on Lamar Jackson because they believed in (and had just paid) a quarterback who can’t throw a spiral.

It’s not just that Coughlin passed on Kaepernick and Jackson that has to be frustrating for Jaguars fans. It’s the old school thinking that has guided Coughlin’s roster moves that should really irk them. (We haven’t even mentioned the fact that he drafted a running back who doesn’t contribute in the passing game over Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.) When Kaepernick’s name was brought up by the Jags media, Coughlin said he wasn’t interested and then refused to explain why. Great.

As for passing on Jackson, ESPN’s Mina Kimes told a story on a recent episode of “The Right Time with Bomani Jones” podcast (15:05 mark) about Jalen Ramsey pointing to Coughlin as the main reason the Jags passed on the Louisville star. This was shortly after the 2018 NFL draft, Kimes says, when things were still going well for Ramsey in Jacksonville.

That Ramsey, one of the most talented players in the history of the Jaguars organization, is no longer on the team can also be pinned on Coughlin. He sent veiled shots at Ramsey through the media, dragged his feet when Ramsey started asking for a second contract and then ended up trading the star cornerback after personal disagreements.

Hours after the NFLPA sent out its announcement on Monday, Ramsey tweeted this…

Former Jaguars teammate Allen Robinson, whom Coughlin let walk in part to free up money to foolishly pay Marqise Lee and Bortles instead, replied with crying laughing emojis.

This team is literally a laughing stock.

When Coughlin took over, the Jaguars had one of the more promising rosters in the league. Two years later, it’s terribly flawed and, worse, terribly expensive. No NFL team has more money committed to the 2020 salary cap than Jacksonville does…

The Jaguars don’t have any money to spend on free agents, but even if they did, it probably wouldn’t matter after the NFLPA’s comments about the team. There are no obvious fixes for the roster or the salary cap situation, but there is an easy way to repair the reputation of the franchise: Get rid of Tom Coughlin as quickly as possible.

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NFLPA wins grievance vs. Jags for fining players over offseason rehab process

The Jags have found themselves in trouble with the players union again.

Due to a violation of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the league’s biggest topics of discussion after what was supposed to be a victory Monday. Per multiple media outlets, an arbitrator ruled in the NFLPA’s favor after it filed a grievance against the organization.

NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero posted the email players union’s email, which states the team fined an anonymous player over $700,000 for missing an offseason rehab process which the Jags were trying to make mandatory at their facility. The statement is one that came down hard on the Jags’ warning players to heavily consider what they are getting into when signing with the organization which has accounted for 25% of all recent NFL grievances.

The player who was fined was revealed to be former pass-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. according to the Associated Press.

 

These issues with the NFLPA seem to be mostly due to Jags football executive Tom Coughlin, who has a great deal of history with the union. The team hired him almost three years ago and things haven’t gone well with the player’s union since.

The statement highlighted Fowler’s incident in 2018, but there was a similar incident that occurred back in 2017 and it was believed then that something could come from it. Evidently, the Jags continued their stance on rehabbing at the facility during the offseason past that point and now have to deal with the consequences.

Most fans will also be quick to remember the legal process the NFLPA got into with the Jags as running back Leonard Fournette filed a grievance against the Jags in January for voiding the remainder of his contract guarantees. Another notable incident with the union  also occurred months later in the offseason, when Coughlin singled out Jalen Ramsey and Telvin Smith for missing the voluntary part of the offseason. The NFLPA fired back with a statement to the organization, explaining what the term “voluntary” meant.

The NFLPA’s recent grievance isn’t one in which looks good on owner Shad Khan’s part when considering the team is likely heading for a rebuild and will need to show players that the organization is worth playing for down the road. It especially could increase the likelihood that Coughlin’s days (and several others in the front office) are coming to a close with the organization.