Tag: college football playoff predictions

USA TODAY Playoff projections drop Texas out of 1st rd bye

Texas’ loss to Georgia could add an extra game, the Longhorns have dropped out of 1st round bye in new playoff projections.

After losing 30-15 to the Georgia Bulldogs Saturday, the Longhorns have been in a rankings free fall. No. 1 just days ago, the Horns are now No. 6 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and No. 5 in the AP Top 25 ranking.

Now the weekly USA TODAY Sports College Football Playoff predictions are out and Texas’ position has definitely changed. Well, for now UT can kiss that first round bye goodbye. Here’s what writer Austin Curtright has to say.

“Texas’ loss to Georgia moved Oregon into the No. 1 spot in the Week 9 rankings, with Georgia also overtaking Texas in the polls, making the Bulldogs the highest-ranked SEC team after Week 8.” — Austin Curtright

The top four teams get a first round bye. The other eight that make it into the bracket must play in Week 1 of the playoff. The top seed will get to host.

USA TODAY Sports’ bracket

These teams would get a bye: 
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. Iowa State

Here’s a look at the bracket if the regular season ended today:
No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Notre Dame
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Clemson
No. 8 LSU vs. No. 9 Tennessee

The Longhorns would host theoretical ACC runner-up Clemson at DKR in the first round. The winner would face Georgia, ironically.

College Football Playoff dates, schedule

Here is the full list of dates for the 2025 College Football Playoff:

  • First round: Friday, Dec. 20-Saturday, Dec. 21
  • Quarterfinals: Tuesday, Dec. 31-Wednesday, Jan. 1
  • Semifinals: Thursday, Jan. 9-Friday, Jan. 10
  • National championship: Monday, Jan. 20

Notre Dame predicted for a 2023 rematch in the College Football Playoff

Revenge anyone?

When Notre Dame football lost to Northern Illinois during Week 2, it looked like they had washed away its chances at making the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag].

Since the defeat, the Irish have reeled off 5-straight wins and have put themselves back into the conversation to make the 12-team tournament. On Monday, USA TODAY’s Austin Cartwright predicted which teams will make the CFP, as Notre Dame was selected as the No. 11 seed.

The first round matchup would be a rematch of a 2022 and 2023 home-and-home series against Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio. The Buckeyes took both games, but there were both highly competitive contests, even though Notre Dame dropped both of them.

The Buckeyes won the first contest in 2022 by a score of 21-10 in Columbus, and it was much closer in 2023, as Ohio State went into South Bend and needed a final drive to get a 17-14 win.

This would clearly be an interesting matchup, but there are others would be intriguing in the first round as well. Cartwright paired up the Texas Longhorns and Clemson Tigers along with the LSU Tigers against the Tennessee Volunteers.

Sep 23, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) makes a catch as Notre Dame Fighting Irish cornerback Benjamin Morrison (20) defends in the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. The catch was reviewed and ruled and incomplete pass and Morrison was given a pass interference penalty. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

As we get closer to the first CFP Rankings, this picture will clear up and we will see where teams really stand according to the committee.

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Paul Finebaum believes UGA can make CFP with three losses

Paul Finebaum explains how Georgia is the only team that can make the College Football Playoff with three losses.

With the expanded College Football Playoff, there’s still hope for teams that suffer two losses to win the national championship, but three losses may seem like enough to eliminate some teams. After all, since 2021, only two teams with three losses have ranked in the top 12 heading into conference championship weekend.

However, ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum thinks that the Georgia Bulldogs can buck the trend.

“I think the only team in America that could possibly lose three games and get in the playoff is Georgia,” he said on an interview with UGASports.com, “Because I don’t think the Alabama loss really counts. I know that sounds crazy but everyone that watched that game knows it was an even game. The committee will look at that and go, ‘They lost by one play in Tuscaloosa, so have they made up for that?’ And how can Georgia make up for that? Well, they’ll have to beat Texas I think, frankly because you need something.”

Currently, Georgia sits at No. 4 on the US LBM Coaches Poll. However, they not only have No. 1 Texas on their schedule, but also No. 8 Ole Miss and No. 9 Tennessee next month. The Bulldogs do already have an impressive win over No. 11 Clemson.

ESPN currently has Georgia’s playoff chances at 75.2%, which is the fourth-most of any team in the country. Georgia still has only one loss in its last 44 regular season games.

If Georgia wins at least two of those three (Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee) games, they’d easily make the playoffs. However, it’s an interesting scenario Georgia fans could be privy too if they lose two more games.

However, Georgia has to take care of business in its other games if the Bulldogs want to have a chance at the playoff. Georgia’s next game is on Saturday, Oct. 12 against Mississippi State.

Where is Georgia in CFP ranking projections ahead of Alabama game

Where is UGA ranked in ESPN’s CFP projections ahead of the Georgia at Alabama game?

ESPN projects that the Georgia Bulldogs would be the No. 2 team in their predicted College Football Playoff rankings. However, since the Texas Longhorns are ranked ahead of Georgia, the Bulldogs would not get a bye in the playoff. Only the SEC championship winner will have the luxury of a bye week in the playoff.

ESPN college football expert Heather Dinich (subscription required) predicts that Georgia’s recent win over Kentucky would prevent the Bulldogs from being ranked No. 1. “Georgia’s ugly 13-12 win against Kentucky is still holding it back,” said Dinich.

Georgia, who had a bye in Week 4, will play a massive road game against the Alabama Crimson Tide on Sept. 28. A win over the Crimson Tide would look very good on Georgia’s résumé, which looks stronger based on how Clemson is playing.

“The Bulldogs’ season-opening win against Clemson is even more impressive after the Tigers’ back-to-back dominant wins against App State and NC State. After scoring just three points against Georgia, Clemson has scored at least 59 points in consecutive wins,” said Dinich.

Clemson is looking like an early favorite to make the ACC championship game along with Miami. Georgia’s 34-3 win over Clemson is the Dawgs’ most impressive win so far. UGA will love to earn a win over Alabama to move to 4-0 on Saturday.

Alabama, who also had an extra week to prepare, represents a major challenge for Georgia. Georgia head coach Kirby Smart is just 1-5 in his career against Alabama.

The Bulldogs primarily focused on themselves during their bye week. Georgia has many things to clean up after the Kentucky game.

“What do you do in the bye week? You look back at yourself,” said Kirby Smart. “You look back and you do quality control. You try to find tendency breakers. You try to find new wrinkles. You try to really get better at blocking and tackling, which is what football is. That’s what we focused on.”

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Georgia also used its bye week to heal up ahead of the Alabama game. The Bulldogs have been missing several key pieces along their defensive line.

What does Northern Illinois loss mean for Notre Dame?

Notre Dame probably would’ve been better off with an NIU win Saturday.

Just two weeks after coming into South Bend and beating Notre Dame in what might be the biggest upset of the 2024 college football season, the No. 23 Northern Illinois Huskies lost to Buffalo, 23-20, in overtime. At home.

This loss could have implications for Notre Dame’s playoff chances, though with just four games played, there’s still much more to figure out.

Almost every pundit and observer thought that not only would Notre Dame beat the Huskies, but the Irish would do it handily. We all know what happened next: Notre Dame lost 16-14.

The questions being asked after that game were these: Is NIU that good? Is Notre Dame overrated? Did Notre Dame simply have a bad day, perhaps by overlooking an underdog opponent?

Those questions remain unanswered. Northern Illinois jumped into the rankings after beating Notre Dame but also had the following week off. It’s too early to tell if a close loss to Buffalo means NIU isn’t as good as people thought. Neither does it help us determine if NIU is a playoff contender or if Notre Dame had a bad day — or both.

The following weeks will bring answers.

What does the NIU loss to Buffalo mean for Notre Dame?
Northern Illinois Huskies kicker Kanon Woodill kicks the game winning field goal in the fourth quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

It would probably be good for Notre Dame if the Huskies are a true contender since it makes the loss to NIU look worse in the eye of any playoff decision-makers. Because the Irish are independent, they have no chance at an automatic bid via a conference championship.

While the Irish were considered, at the season’s start, as a possible playoff entrant with 1 or 2 losses, that depended on whom they lost to. Before the season kicked off, most observers would’ve excused an Irish loss to Florida State, USC or maybe Louisville. However, the conventional thinking since the loss to NIU is that Notre Dame will need to run the table to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame, for its part, hasn’t answered questions, either. The 66-7 drubbing of Purdue wasn’t particularly surprising, and the Irish once again started slowly at home against a Mid-American Conference team on Saturday, though this time they pulled away to beat Miami of Ohio.

There are other teams factoring into this equation. Florida State looks bad, so a win against the Seminoles no longer looks impressive. USC fell to Michigan on Saturday. Other upsets could happen, leaving a bunch of top 20 teams with one or two losses at season’s end.

Still, the NIU loss to Buffalo will likely hurt Notre Dame by making its loss to the Huskies look worse — unless NIU has a strong run to the finish line.

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Where is Georgia in CFP projections ahead of Week 4

Georgia football is no longer predicted to win the SEC and would have to play in the first round of the playoff in ESPN’s latest projections

The Georgia Bulldogs are the No. 5 seed in ESPN’s latest College Football Playoff projections. Georgia is not projected to win the SEC anymore.

Instead, ESPN’s Heather Dinich (subscription required) predicts that the Texas Longhorns will win the SEC and secure the No. 1 seed in the playoff.

“Texas has one of the best wins in the country to date (at Michigan) and continues to roll while last week’s No. 1 seed, Georgia, struggled to beat a mediocre Kentucky team on the road,” said Dinich. “According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas is the most likely team to make the playoff (91%) and win it (22%).”

Fortunately, the battle for the SEC will be decided on the field and not via the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Georgia, who has a bye in Week 4, will play a critical game for the playoff bracket against the Alabama Crimson Tide on Sept. 28. Additionally, Georgia is slated to play at Texas in October.

Georgia would play the No. 12 seed in ESPN’s projected playoff. The Bulldogs would host No. 12 Northern Illinois in Sanford Stadium. Georgia would be heavily favored against Northern Illinois and if UGA won, then the Bulldogs would face No. 4 Kansas State at a neutral site.

If Georgia were able to defeat Kansas State in the quarterfinals, then the Dawgs would most likely face No. 1 Texas in the semifinals in a potential SEC championship rematch.

Notre Dame leads list of crushed College Football Playoff dreams

Another influential writer is suggesting Notre Dame needs to win out.

One of the leading voices in college football is piling on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after the team’s poor showing against Northern Illinois.

The fallout from the 16-14 loss to a then-unranked MAC team continues.

Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde has a weekly series with the 12 teams that had their playoff dreams crushed, and Notre Dame leads his series this week.

“Following up a hard-nosed victory at the Texas A&M Aggies with this dud of a home opener immediately increases the heat on Freeman for the rest of this season,” Forde writes.

Notre Dame's loss to NIU may have crushed their playoff dreams.
Northern Illinois celebrates scoring a touchdown during a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Northern Illinois at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024, in South Bend.

It’s been a theme in the days following the stunning loss — can Notre Dame, the same team that seemed guaranteed a playoff spot just days before playing NIU, qualify?

What happens against Purdue will start to determine the answer. Until then, the analysts and pundits can merely speculate.

It’s tricky, since both sides can be argued, and since Notre Dame doesn’t have a chance for an automatic bid via a conference championship.

The Irish can start providing answers on Saturday.

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Where is Georgia in playoff projections ahead of Week 3

Georgia football could play the same team twice if things go according to this College Football Playoff projection

The Georgia Bulldogs are the No. 1 seed in College Sports Wire’s latest College Football Playoff projections. Georgia is projected to win the SEC.

Georgia is predicted to win the SEC over several other playoff teams including the No. 5 Texas Longhorns, who are projected to be the highest ranked team that is not a conference champion. College Sports Wire predicts that the Alabama Crimson Tide will be the No. 6 seed and the Ole Miss Rebels will be the No. 7 seed.

Georgia would play the winner of the No. 8 Tennessee versus No. 9 USC game at a neutral site if things go according to these playoff predictions. Georgia hosts Tennessee in the regular season on Nov. 16. If Georgia beat the Tennessee-USC winner, then the Bulldogs would likely play Texas or Utah (the No. 4 seed).

The 12 team playoff will be a lot of fun, but right now Georgia is focusing on its next game. The Bulldogs play on the road at the Kentucky Wildcats in their SEC road opener on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET.

“That’s a really tough place to play,” said Georgia head coach Kirby Smart on playing the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 3. “When you go there, as you can see from every time we’ve played there, it’s been really tough. A lot of excitement playing an SEC opponent on the road.”

Notre Dame left off Jerry Palm’s College Football Playoff projection

Pin this one on the bulletin board.

All Notre Dame has to do is win the games it’s supposed to win in 2024, and it very likely will make the College Football Playoff. At least that’s what most people seem to believe. However, one expert has dared to challenge that belief.

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports’ College Football Playoff expert, has released his projections for the first year of the expanded playoff. Unlike most experts, he doesn’t have the Irish in his bracket.

Palm also has released his projections for the remaining bowl games, and he has the Irish facing Oklahoma State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, which would be a rematch of [autotag]Marcus Freeman[/autotag]’s coaching debut in the Fiesta Bowl three years ago.

While the idea of the Irish eating a mascot as a postgame snack is fun to think about, it would signify disappointment in a season with high expectations. But it shows how the Irish won’t just be handed anything this season. They’ll need to earn their spot in the playoff, and it looks like that will involve proving some people wrong.

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Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt makes College Football Playoff picks

Joel Klatt is not confident in Texas on Monday.

Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt is not confident in Texas on Monday. Continue reading “Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt makes College Football Playoff picks”