Tag: College Basketball betting

Michigan State at Illinois college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Analyzing Tuesday’s Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks

The Michigan State Spartans (16-8, 8-5 Big Ten) visit the conference-rival Illinois Fighting Illini (16-7, 8-4) for a Tuesday clash at State Farm Center tipping-off at 9 p.m. ET. We analyze the Michigan State-Illinois odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

Michigan State at Illinois: Three things you need to know

1. Michigan State housed Illinois in their first meeting this season, 76-65, behind a 20-point, 6-assist effort from Cassius Winston. The Spartans defense stifled the Illini as they went just 22-for-75 from the field, including a dismal 3 of 28 from behind the arc.

2. Illinois has dropped back-to-back games, both to ranked Big Ten foes, and Michigan State has lost a season-high three straight games, including a 77-68 loss to Michigan.

3. The Fighting Illini cracked into the top 25 this season for the first time since their head coach, Brad Underwood, took over the program in 2017. Their best AP ranking was No. 19 prior to their recent slide to No. 22.

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Michigan State at Illinois: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Michigan State 72, Illinois 64

Moneyline (ML)

As has been the case for all of Tom Izzo’s tenure as Michigan State’s head coach, the Spartans are much more talented than the Fighting Illini. Michigan State has seven active players in RSCI’s top-100 recruits ranking and Illinois has just two. 

Also, just like they struggled in the first game, don’t expect the Fighting Illini to hit many threes Tuesday. Illinois is ranked 287th in 3-point percentage while Michigan State is ranked 12th in opponent 3-point percentage. Also, Michigan State is one of the best programs at cleaning up the glass—the Spartans are ranked seventh in the nation in rebounds per game and have a plus-9 average differential. Since 2017, Michigan State has the most wins as a road favorite (18-8 record), the most wins against ranked competition (17-7), and Illinois is just 3-16 versus ranked competition. 

BET MICHIGAN STATE (-129).

Against the Spread (ATS)

I feel good about Michigan State (-1.5, -118) in this spot but I don’t like the idea of laying $118 to win $100 for the Spartans to win by 2 or more points. Let’s PASS on an against the spread wager and just stick with the moneyline at nearly-even odds.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE UNDER 141.5 (-110). Illinois has a 5-8 Over/Under record at home this season and 63% of Michigan State’s away games have went Under the projected total since 2017. Also, the Under is 9-3 in the Fighting Illini’s last 12 games as an underdog and the Under is 7-1-1 in the Spartans’ last nine games as a favorite.

Want some action on this matchup? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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New Mexico at San Diego State college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Tuesday’s New Mexico at San Diego State college basketball matchup, with college basketball betting odds, picks and best bets

The New Mexico Lobos (17-8, 6-6) will visit the undefeated San Diego State Aztecs (24-0, 13-0) in a late-night Mountain West matchup Tuesday at 11 p.m. ET at Viejas Arena. We analyze the New Mexico-San Diego State odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

New Mexico at San Diego State: Three things you need to know

1. The Aztecs have won all 24 of their games with a schedule that ranks around 120th in the nation (of 373). San Diego State plays tremendous defense — the Aztecs rank fourth in the nation in yielding just 58.3 points per game. Boise State shot 47.9% against the Aztecs at Viejas Arena Jan. 11. No Aztec foe has topped that in their 23 other games.

2. The Lobos lost five of six with JaQuan Lyle (knee) and Vance Jackson (knee) out of the lineup due to injury. Both returned to action in Saturday’s 97-68 win over Wyoming; they combined for 25 points and nine rebounds. At 16.5 PPG, Lyle is New Mexico’s leading scorer.

3. This contest features the two best-shooting teams in the Mountain West. New Mexico leads the circuit with a 48.5% mark; SDSU is right behind at 47.4%. The Aztecs have the higher effective field-goal mark: 54.9%. (That statistic accounts for 3- and 2-point field goals by their proper values.) San Diego State’s eFG percentage ranks 10th in the nation.

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New Mexico at San Diego State: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET.

Prediction

San Diego State 82, New Mexico 65

Moneyline (ML)

New Mexico isn’t winning this one, and the -2000 moneyline on SDSU is too much chalk to make a play. PASS ON THE MONEYLINE and play the spread.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on San Diego State to win would return a profit of just 50 cents.

Against the Spread (ATS)

The Lobos are: 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams playing .600-plus basketball … 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win …  1-3 ATS (average margin -9 points off the spread) over four midweek road games. The Aztecs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against over-.500 teams.

SAN DIEGO STATE -15.5 (-110) is a fair price and one that has some moderate value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slightly more value can be found here, on the total — if the number is at the right spot. The over is: 5-0 in the Lobos’ last five games following an ATS victory … 5-0 over the Aztecs’ last five … a combined 19-5 in UNM/SDSU conference games.

New Mexico plays at a slow pace, and that may be getting too much respect in the market. That fact is leveled by SDSU’s faster tempo and by the Aztecs’ habit of not putting teams away until the last five minutes of games. But with the over currently at 148.5, PASS ON THE O/U UNLESS IT DIPS BELOW 147.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Florida State at Duke college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Monday’s Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks.

The Florida State Seminoles (20-3, 10-2 ACC) travel to Durham, N.C., to battle the Duke Blue Devils (20-3, 10-2) Monday at 7 p.m. ET at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Both teams are coming off emotional wins over rivals. We analyze the Florida State-Duke odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

Florida State at Duke: Three things you need to know

1. FSU defeated Miami 99-81 Saturday. The eighth-ranked Seminoles (USA TODAY sports men’s basketball coaches poll) have lost just once since Dec. 3. FSU has been on fire from long distance, racking up nine 3’s per game and shooting a robust 41.1% from beyond the arc since the beginning of January. The triples and a fast pace of play have the Seminoles averaging 86.0 points per game over their last half-dozen contests.

2. The No. 7 Blue Devils are coming off an overtime, buzzer-beater win on the road at North Carolina Saturday. Duke hasn’t played at home since Jan. 28. The Blue Devils have logged an effective field-goal percentage (accounts for 33.3% on 3-pointers and 50% on 2-pointers having the same value) over 55% in 8 of 12 home games this season and in 4 of the team’s last 5.

3. The trey-launching Seminoles have their work cut out for them against a Duke defense which is elite in defending the 3-pointer. Over the Devils’ current five-game win streak, they’ve held foes to a 22.1% accuracy mark from 3-point land.

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Florida State at Duke: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Duke 82, Florida State 71

Moneyline (ML)

PASS. Duke is too costly at -400 – every $4 wagered on the Duke ML will profit $1 if it wins. Florida State is +310, offering a little bit more than a 3-to-1 profit if it prevails.

Against the Spread (ATS)

The ‘Noles are 0-3 ATS against teams averaging more than 77.0 PPG. The Blue Devils are 10-6 ATS when playing teams over .500.

DUKE -8.5 (-106) is a solid play. Look for a Blue Devils’ advantage on 3-pointers and free throws with the home team piling up enough to cover.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over is: 4-1 over FSU’s last five road games … 10-3 in Duke home games … a combined 19-6 when FSU or Duke are in games totaled between 140-149.5.

Threes and free throws add up. Look for a total near 150 with 90 seconds remaining. Back the OVER 148.5 (-106).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Notre Dame Slight Road Dog Today at Clemson

Sunday evening presents a very realistic chance at a fourth straight as Mike Brey’s Fighting Irish squad will be at Clemson.

Notre Dame basketball has taken advantage of a break in the schedule a bit and been playing better, winning their last three ACC contests.

Sunday evening presents a very realistic chance at a fourth straight as Mike Brey’s Fighting Irish squad will be at Clemson.

As of early Sunday afternoon, Notre Dame is a very slight underdog as they visit the Tigers with Clemson being favored by 1.5 points and the over/under being set at 137.5.

Odds via BetMGM. Access USATODAY Sports Betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated February 9 at 12:10 p.m. ET.

Notre Dame enters plays 14-8 overall, 5-6 in the ACC and 2-4 on the road. Clemson starts today 11-11 with a 5-7 ACC clip and 9-4 home mark.

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-Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

Oregon at Oregon State college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks and bets.

The Oregon Ducks (18-5) travel up the road to Corvallis to take on the Oregon State Beavers (13-9) Saturday. Tip-off for the Pac-12 contest at Gill Coliseum is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Oregon-Oregon State odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

Oregon at Oregon State: Three things you need to know

1. Oregon (76.8 points per game) and Oregon State (73.8 PPG) rank second and third, respectively, in Pac-12 scoring. The Ducks get quite a few points from beyond the arc — they’re shooting a robust 38.7% (first Pac-12) on 3-point attempts. The Beavers get it done on twos and at the charity stripe — they rank 12th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line with 22.8 attempts per game.

2. Oregon State has lost five of its last six games. Over those half-dozen contests, the OSU defense has yielded a 49.5% accuracy mark from the field. In all five losses, the Beavers trailed throughout.

3. The Ducks are 0-3 against the spread over their last three on the road. One common thread in the road woes has been Oregon’s shooting inside the arc. The Ducks have had some road games where they’ve shot under 35% on 2-pointers. Oregon State is proficient in its inside defense; if the Ducks can’t knock down enough mid-range jumpers, they could be in for trouble in this visit to Corvallis.

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Oregon at Oregon State: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Oregon State 72, Oregon 69

Moneyline (ML)

Oregon has two players out for this one. Freshman C N’faly Dante (knee) and sophomore F Francis Okoro (personal) will miss the game. Both have figured prominently in the Ducks’ rotation, Dante’s getting 15 minutes per per game and Okoro sees 18 MPG. Three-point-dependent Oregon went just 7-for-24 from beyond the arc in a loss to Stanford last Saturday (the Ducks’ last game). Oregon has put together a few multi-game runs of subpar shooting from distance.

The OREGON STATE (+135) straight-up play has the best value among the three main plays listed here.

Against the Spread (ATS)

The Ducks are 3-4 ATS on the road; the Beavers are 7-4 against the number at home. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this in-state rivalry.

Only getting 2.5 points here is part of the equation that makes the moneyline play more attractive. PASS on the spread, as Oregon State fetches a better profit on the moneyline.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over is 6-1 in the Beavers’ last seven games as an underdog. This Saturday contest figures to have 3-pointers and free-throws leading to another Over as well, but the public has this total well bracketed. PASS on the Over 139.5 (+110).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Analyzing Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks and tips.

The Duke Blue Devils (19-3) head to Chapel Hill to play their longtime rival, the North Carolina Tar Heels (10-12), in the Dean E. Smith Center at 6:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Duke-North Carolina odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

Duke at North Carolina: Three things you need to know

  1. Duke versus North Carolina is one of college basketball’s most storied rivalries. Today will be the 250th meeting between the two schools and the Tar Heels lead the Blue Devils in the all-time series, 138-111.
  2. This North Carolina team is on pace to be the worst Tar Heel team of the Roy Williams era. The Tar Heels have made the NCAA Tournament in 16 of Williams’ 17 seasons at the helm and have never finished below .500.
  3. The Blue Devils come into today’s game on a four-game winning streak after taking back-to-back losses to the Louisville Cardinals and Clemson Tigers. Their star freshman center, Vernon Carey Jr., averaged 20 points and 11.5 rebounds per game in those four wins.

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Duke at North Carolina: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

Prediction

UNC 73, Duke 70

Moneyline (ML)

This is a fringe play, but let’s SPRINKLE A SMALL WAGER ON NORTH CAROLINA +280 on the money line. From a recruiting standpoint, Duke does have a talent advantage: The Blue Devils have eight RSCI top-100 recruits compared to the Tar Heels’ five top-100 recruits. But North Carolina has the most prized recruit out of the two teams in PG Cole Anthony, who should be a top-5 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. Between he and PF Garrison Brooks—who’s averaging 14.9 points and nine rebounds per game make him a difficult matchup for Duke’s Carey Jr.—the Tar Heels have real money line value in the Smith Center. 

Against the Spread (ATS)

Betting trends are in favor of BETTING NORTH CAROLINA +8 (-115). First, the Tar Heels are 5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings versus Duke. Second, North Carolina is 4-3 ATS on the road against above .500 teams and 1-0 ATS when getting 7.5-9.5 points. Since 2015, North Carolina’s ACC conference game ATS record is better than Duke’s—the Tar Heels are 52-42-2 ATS, while the Blue Devils are 44-50-2 ATS against ACC competition.

Over/Under (O/U)

We are on the UNDER 150.5 (-115) in North Carolina-Duke. The Under correlates with our Tar Heels money line and ATS picks because they have the most Unders in the ACC with a 7-14-1 Over/Under record. Also, the last six North Carolina-Duke games have gone Under. 

Want some action on this matchup? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Michigan State at Michigan odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks.

The Michigan Wolverines (13-9, 4-7 Big Ten) host the rival Michigan State Spartans (16-7, 8-4 Big Ten) at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor Saturday at 12 p.m. ET in a Big Ten Conference clash. We analyze the Michigan State-Michigan odds and betting lines, while providing college basketball betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Michigan State at Michigan: Three things you need to know

1. The Spartans are on a two-game skid, losing at Wisconsin 64-63 last Saturday, and at home against Penn State by a 75-70 count Tuesday. They’re also just 3-4 straight up and against the spread across their past seven games.

2. The last time these teams met was Jan. 5 in East Lansing, and the Spartans took the Wolverines behind the shed, winning 87-69 to cover a nine-point number with the over (145) cashing.

3. Michigan ranks 166th in the nation with 68.9 points per game allowed, and they’re 175th with a 42.6 defensive field-goal percentage. F Jon Teske leads the way with 13.1 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocked shots per game.

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Michigan State at Michigan: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Michigan State 71, Michigan 65

Moneyline (ML)

MICHIGAN STATE (-143) is looking for the series sweep, and the Spartans are not a bad play laying only a little bit on the road. While they’ve been in a bit of a tailspin lately, Michigan (+120) isn’t exactly killing it, either. Sparty is a much better team overall.

Against the Spread (ATS)

MICHIGAN STATE (-2, -115) has posted a 4-1 ATS mark in its past seven games following a non-cover. While Michigan (+2, -106) is 4-0 ATS in the past four as a home underdog, the Wolverines are just 1-3-1 ATS in the past five at home, 1-8-1 ATS in the past 10 against winning teams and 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine games overall. The Wolverines are also a dismal 0-5 ATS in the past five as an underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 142.5 (-110) has been the rule for both sides lately, and neither is playing with very much consistency at the offensive end. The Under is 7-0-1 in Michigan State’s past eight games overall, and 3-0-1 in the past four on the road. The Under is 4-1 in Michigan’s past five overall, and 4-0 in its past four at Crisler Center. This won’t be a defensive slog, but it won’t be a track meet, either.

Want some action in this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Maryland at Illinois college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Maryland Terrapins at Illinois Fighting Illini sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball picks and bets.

The Maryland Terrapins (18-4) visit the Illinois Fighting Illini (16-6) in a key Friday night meeting at State Farm Center in Champaign, Ill. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET. We analyze the Maryland-Illinois odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

Maryland at Illinois: Three things you need to know

1. The ninth-ranked (USA Today Sports Coaches Poll) Terrapins and 21st-ranked Illini are tied atop the Big Ten standings at 8-3. Maryland beat Illinois 59-58 in College Park Dec. 7, and the Terps have won five games (all in-conference affairs) in a row after losing 4-of-7 from mid-December to mid-January. The Illini are coming off a road loss at Iowa Sunday. That loss snapped a seven-game winning streak. Illinois heads into Friday’s game having won seven straight at home.

2. The Fighting Illini have out-rebounded five of their last six opponents. Illinois’ work on the offensive glass — where the team ranks sixth in the nation — is a difference-maker. Maryland is a solid rebounding team but its edge in that facet of the game has waned in recent weeks. Recent against the spread losses have been tied to opponent success on the offensive boards.

3. A note from small-samplesville: Over the last two seasons, Maryland is 1-3 against the spread in Friday games away from home. What stands out in a look at those games is the Terps have flopped in the losses (big margins of defeat, a near loss to Harvard). Dovetailing off that, the 2019-20 Terrapins are 0-3 ATS away from home after playing two-plus games at home.

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Maryland at Illinois: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Illinois 67, Maryland 63

Moneyline (ML)

No lean here with the pricing. PASS. (Illinois -161, Maryland +135).

Against the Spread (ATS)

Illinois is 5-2 ATS over its last seven home games and 5-2 ATS against teams allowing fewer than 65 points per game. Maryland has beaten the spread in six straight, and the Terps’ in-game leads don’t support that level of success. The line here (or at least the price) brings in in some recency bias: TAKE ILLINOIS (-3, -110).

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over is 5-3 in Maryland road games and 5-1 in Illinois’ last six home games against a team with a winning road record. Maryland’s ability to get to the line and score without using much time helps tip this one into 130-point territory.

TAKE OVER 126.5 (-150).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Villanova at Butler college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Analyzing Wednesday’s Villanova Wildcats at Butler Bulldogs sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks and tips.

The Villanova Wildcats (17-4) head into Hinkle Fieldhouse to play the Butler Bulldogs (17-5) Wednesday. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Villanova-Butler odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

Villanova at Butler: Three things you need to know

  1. Each team comes into this game off of a loss; Villanova lost 76-61 at Creighton Saturday, and Butler lost 65-61 at home to Providence.
  2. Villanova has the best record against Big East competition since Butler joined the conference (2013-14) at 111-22 with a 10.5-point margin of victory average. The Wildcats have 33 more intraconference wins than the second-highest winning team in the Big East.
  3. So far this season, Villanova is 2-2 versus ranked opponents, including a 56-55 win over the then No. 1-ranked Kansas Jayhawks while Butler is 0-3 against ranked competition. 

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Villanova at Butler: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Villanova 73, Butler 66

Moneyline (ML)

The Big East is Villanova’s world and all the other teams are just living in it. Villanova has won two of the past four national championships, has been ranked first by the Associated Press at some point in three of those seasons, and has won three straight Big East tournaments. 

The Wildcats crushed Butler 76-61 in their first meeting Jan. 21 and the Bulldogs could be without starting point guard Aaron Thompson for a fourth straight game. Butler has lost five straight to Villanova and the Bulldogs are just 4-11 against Villanova since entering the Big East. Seven of those losses came by double digits. 

Butler has the fourth-highest winning percentage in the Big East since joining but they are just 14-32 against ranked opponents and Villanova is a Big East-best 35-17 with an average margin of victory of 4.8 points against ranked opponents. 

BET VILLANOVA (+120) on the money line.

Against the Spread (ATS)

Surprise, surprise, Villanova has the best against the spread record in the Big East at 146-91-2, and the best ATS record against the Big East at 77-56, since Butler joined. The Bulldogs’ ATS record against conference opponents is ranked eighth out of 10 Big East teams in the same timespan. Also, the Wildcats taking a beating in their last game to Creighton will motivate them to get back to form against a familiar punching bag. 

It feels like a sucker bet taking a public team like Villanova at such a low number, but whatever, let’s TAKE VILLANOVA +2.5 (-110) as insurance.

Over/Under (O/U)

This is a PASS on the projected total of 130.5 for me. The Under (-106) is 5-0 in the Wildcats last five road games and 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog.  However, the Over (-115) is 6-1 in the Wildcats’ last seven versus teams with a winning record. Plus, Over is 5-0 in the Bulldogs’ last five home games versus teams with a winning road record and Over is 5-0 in their last five games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Want some action on this matchup? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Clemson at Virginia college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Wednesday’s Clemson Tigers at Virginia Cavaliers sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks and bets.

The Clemson Tigers (11-10) pay a visit to Charlottesville, Va. to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (14-6) Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET in an ACC battle at John Paul Jones Arena. We analyze the Clemson-Virginiaodds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

Clemson at Virginia: Three things you need to know

1. Virginia has lost four of its last seven games, and two of those losses were at home. Poor 3-point shooting and an inability to force turnovers have been issues at the forefront of UVA’s woes. The latter has usually been part and parcel as a strength of a terrific all-around defense.

2. Clemson struggles in away games. Over six such contests this season, the Tigers are 1-5 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Clemson has been thoroughly game-controlled in five of its road efforts (meaning the final result was never in doubt). The Tigers’ rate in getting to the free-throw line has been a major problem in recent road tilts.

3. The Tigers have some road issues to overcome if they are to stay within a couple scores of the Wahoos. Clemson’s last three games away from home consist of a 12-point loss at Wake Forest (Feb. 1), an 18-point loss at Louisville (Jan. 25), and a six-point loss at NC State (Jan. 18). Only the NCSU game was an ATS win, and that was with a back-door cover in garbage time.

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Clemson at Virginia: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Virginia 57, Clemson 52

Moneyline (ML)

PASS. There is a lean toward the Clemson side (+300) but the line doesn’t bring enough value into the risk/reward equation.

Against the Spread (ATS)

Virginia is just 4-8 ATS at home and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight-up win. The road team is 5-1 ATS over the last six games in this series.

Clemson is 4-5 over games decided by two scores or less. This contest in Charlottesville could well wind up in that range, but the Tigers are also one of the more inconsistent teams in the ACC. Let’s tag this as a low-confidence lean toward CLEMSON (+8, -115).

Over/Under (O/U)

This figures to be a slower-paced basketball game, and the projected total bears that out. The Over is 4-0 in Clemson’s last four efforts after a SU loss and it is 5-1 against teams with a winning percentage over .600. The latter group includes some top defensive teams.

So, the zag here is backing the OVER 106.5 (-121).

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