Baldy’s Breakdown: Bills stacking wins using NFL best turnover differential

Baldy’s Breakdown: Bills stacking wins using NFL best turnover differential

Sean McDermott’s Buffalo Bills have continuously beaten their opponents this year by winning the turnover battle, and Sunday night in Week 13 was no different.

The Bills (10-2) forced the San Francisco 49ers (5-7) to turn the ball over three times and had no turnovers of their own in the 35-10 victory.

The Bills lead the NFL in turnover differential at +17. They are second in the league for most takeaways (24) and second in the league with the fewest giveaways (7). They are also second in fumbles recovered (11).

Add all of these components together and you can get a good picture as to why the Bills are 10-2 on the year before even mentioning the team’s points scored and points allowed.

On Sunday, the Bills did what they have been doing all year: they forced their opponent to cough up the ball. Cornerback Christian Benford recovered a fumble forced by safety Taylor Rapp, Jalen Virgil recovered a fumble forced by Cole Bishop on special teams, and pass rusher Greg Rousseau recovered a Brock Purdy fumble.

“One reason the Bills have won seven in a row, and are running away with the AFC East again, is their ability to take the ball away,” said NFL Network and Fox Sports analyst Brian Baldinger in his post-game breakdown. “They are taking it away on average two times per game. You keep doing that, you keep winning.”

Their current turnover differential (+17) is much improved from the previous two years. In 2023, the Bills posted a +2 turnover differential, and in 2022 they broke even (0).

It’s not just the defense causing turnovers that is the reason for their leap over the past two years. A big reason for the improvement is the fact that the offense, and more specifically quarterback Josh Allen, is taking care of the ball.

Last year through 12 games, Allen already had 13 interceptions. This year, he has five.

The offense had zero turnovers in Week 13, and that now makes it six games out of twelve where the Bills have not given the ball away. Last year, the Bills only had three such games over the entire year.

McDermott expressed his pleasure with Allen and the offense taking care of the ball earlier this year, saying, “He’s done a tremendous, tremendous job… he really has, and I couldn’t be more pleased with the way we’ve protected the house on offense. His level of decision-making has increased this season and been very important to our team.”

Taking care of the ball always gives you a chance to win. Add on top of the league-leading turnover differential the fact that the Bills are second in the NFL in points per game, and you can see why they are one of the favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy.

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Four Bills rookies primed for increased opportunities vs. Texans

Four Bills rookies primed for increased opportunities vs. Texans

The Buffalo Bills have been hit with the injury bug to start their 2024 campaign.

Injuries are always a big factor in any NFL season, but the Bills keep losing vital pieces to their team, and the losses are starting to pile up.

Already down to their backup linebackers and nickel back, the team is now without defensive tackle Ed Oliver (hamstring) and safety Taylor Rapp (concussion). So, now the injury bug has affected all three levels of the defense.

It has started to make its way to the offense as well, as starting slot receiver Khalil Shakir has been ruled out with an ankle injury.

Injuries are never good for a team, but for young individuals finally getting their break, it’s a great opportunity to put their play on film.

Due to injury (and the suspension of Von Miller), four Bills rookies will be stepping into a presumed bigger role on Sunday: defensive tackle DeWayne Carter, safety Cole Bishop, defensive end Javon Soloman, and wide receiver Keon Coleman.

DeWayne Carter

(Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)

DeWayne Carter is now thrust into a more prominent role on the defensive line in the absence of Ed Oliver. Carter hasn’t seen much action to start his rookie year. He has played just 81 snaps through four games. Last week against Baltimore he played his most amount of snaps (26) and was able to record two tackles and an assist. The Bills were excited to be able to draft Carter after adding a third-round pick in a draft day trade with the Kansas City Chiefs. Now it’s time to see what the former Duke Blue Devil team captain is all about.

Cole Bishop

Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills safety Cole Bishop (24) in pass coverage against Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Tim Jones (15) in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Cole Bishop saw his first extended work of the season in Week 4 after Rapp left the game. He played 41 snaps and logged three tackles. According to PFF, he had a 33% missed tackle rate, so that is something he will have to improve on. He is now making his first career start. The instincts in coverage on the second level and the ability to break down and make tackles is on tape from his time at the University of Utah. Now he has to prove he can learn quickly at the next level. He will face a big test in his first start going up against a dangerous Texans’ passing attack.

Javon Solomon

Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Rookie edge defender Javon Solomon’s 16 sacks at Troy led the FBS in 2023. And, in limited snaps so far this year (17 total), he has shown flashes. With Von Miller being suspended four games, now is Solomon’s time to shine. Through his first 17 pro snaps, he has posted an impressive 93.3 defense grade and a 93.6 pass rush grade, according to PFF. His pass rush grade only trails Aidan Hutchinson and Myles Garrett in the entire NFL. They each have over 100 pass rush snaps while Solomon only has 11, but the flashes are there.

Keon Coleman

Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Bills’ number one wide receiver Khalil Shakir will miss the game Sunday. While Shakir and Coleman don’t line up in the same spots often, there will still be more targets to go around on offense. Coleman and quarterback Josh Allen were able to get on the same page in the second half of Week 4’s loss. They connected on two impressive back-shoulder receptions on the sideline. Coleman has the physical size and athletic ability to out-jump and out-reach mostly any secondary defender. Now that he has more trust in his quarterback, and with Shakir being out, it will be interesting to see how much they lean on their top draft choice from April.

Bills’ Cole Bishop eager to get back to full health: ‘Good to be back out there’

#Bills’ Cole Bishop eager to get back to full health: ‘Good to be back out there’

Buffalo Bills safety Cole Bishop might be taking in his first NFL action on Saturday when his team hosts the Carolina Panthers in their preseason finale.

Bishop was wearing a red non-contact jersey in practice this week. He’s recovery from a shoulder injury but it’s unclear whether or not Bishop will be good in time for kickoff. He has yet to feature in the preseason.

Regardless, the positive update has been a welcoming one for the second-round rookie.

“Good to be back out there,” Bishop said via video conference. “Obviously I’d rather be out there playing but its been an opportunity to get out there and get some mental reps. Different perspective when you’re on the sideline, you’re able to see more.”

Despite the positive improvement, Bishop still might have a ways to do. Buffalo defensive coordinator Bobby Babich made that known this week.

Babich mentioned that Bishop knows he’s “behind the eight ball” in terms of knowing he has catching up to do.

“We’ve been able to do a couple of things here and there,” Babich said. “We’ve used some different resources and things of that nature, different ways we can test him mentally. When the bullets are flying on game day or even in practice, for that matter, it’s different. It’s a day-by-day process, and he’s got to continue to grow.”

As noted, it remains to be seen if Bishop gets on the field in time for Saturday’s 1 p.m. kickoff. It wouldn’t be the worst thing for a rookie to get his feet wet in the NFL before the regular season. Bills Wire will provide updates when information is made available.

For more from Bishop, see the attached clip below:

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Bills’ Cole Bishop returns to practice in red non-contact

#Bills’ Cole Bishop returns to practice in red non-contact:

Buffalo Bills safety Cole Bishop made his return to practice this week ahead of his team’s preseason finale against the Carolina Panthers.

Bishop, a second-round rookie, could have an opportunity in that final exhibition contest to grab playing time during the regular season. Before then, he still has a little bit of work to do in terms of his health.

While back working out with his teammates, Bishop was still sporting a red non-contact jersey during practice on Thursday.

Will Bishop be ready in time for kickoff?

Bishop at practice can be seen in the WKBW-TV clip below:

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Bills won’t ‘flinch’ at safety injuries: ‘No panic, no nothing, next guy up’

#Bills won’t ‘flinch’ at safety injuries: ‘No panic, no nothing, next guy up’

The Buffalo Bills have an injury problem at safety.

That is, in everyone’s eyes except Bobby Babich.

The defensive coordinator discussed the bumps and bruises that are ongoing at the position at training camp this week. Second-round rookie Cole Bishop (shoulder) joined Mike Edwards (hamstring) on the sideline. Both are considered “week-to-week.”

That forced the team’s hand to sign a pair of free agents, Kareem Jackson and Terrell Burgess. However, Damar Hamlin is now at top of the depth chart as he was battling Bishop and Edwards for a starting spot.

Despite all that, Babich said he won’t let his team “flinch” at the injury issue.

“No panic, no nothing, next guy up. We’ll move forward,” Babich said.

At the other safety spot there was a bit more compassion found.

Taylor Rapp looks cemented into a starting spot there as the Bills look for his partner.

“It’s kind of unfortunate,” Rapp said via video conference. “Seen a lot of growth from them.”

“It’s always next-man up mentality, especially in this business,” Rapp added.

For more from Babich, see the attached clip below:

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Bills injury update: Cole Bishop considered ‘week-to-week’

#Bills injury update: Cole Bishop considered ‘week-to-week’

The Buffalo Bills are set to be without one of their top rookie draft picks for an extended period.

The team announced that the second-round selection is considered “week-to-week” with a shoulder injury.

Bishop picked up the knock during Tuesday’s practice. He was spotted sporting an arm wrap after the session. The Bills did not have practice on Wednesday and the team updated Bishop’s status during their ensuing workout on Thursday at St. John Fisher University.

Bishop’s injury hit come at a tough time for him and the defense. Veteran Mike Edwards (hamstring) also has a “week-to-week” designation slapped on him.

That leaves Damar Hamlin as the current frontrunner to start at safety alongside Taylor Rapp… simply because of Hamlin’s availability as the lone healthy player left in what was a three-player battle for a starting spot.

Because of all the injuries, Buffalo signed Kareem Jackson and Terrell Burgess this week.

With the preseason yet to begin, Bishop and others will still have a chance to earn a starting spot–But they’ll have to get back on the field soon.

Bills Wire will continue to provide all injury updates throughout the 2024 season.

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Bills rookie Cole Bishop is latest safety injured at training camp

#Bills rookie Cole Bishop is latest safety injured at training camp:

Add Cole Bishop to the recently growing injury list for the Buffalo Bills at 2024 training camp.

On Tuesday, the Bills were back in pads during their workout at St. John Fisher University. During an 11-on-11 period, Bishop left the field and did not return.

According to the Rochester D&C, Bishop’s arm was seen “heavily wrapped” after the practice.

Bishop, a second-round rookie, is the latest knock to Buffalo’s safety position. Mike Edwards sustained a shoulder injury and was limited throughout spring practices only to also go on and suffer a hamstring problem within the past few days.

Bishop’s full diagnosis is currently unknown, meanwhile, Edwards was called “week-to-week” by head coach Sean McDermott.

Prior to Bishop’s injury, the Bills announced that veteran safety Kareem Jackson was signed as extra depth following Edwards’ hamstring issue. Now Bishop makes that add look even smarter, but the Bills will want the promising rookie in Bishop to get back out on the field as soon as possible.

Bills Wire will provide updates as information is made available.

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Impressive WR set to be only rookie starter for the Bills

The Bills have some interesting rookies who should play some this season but we can’t wait to watch Keon Coleman catching passes from Josh Allen.

When you have a quarterback like Josh Allen, your top priority has to be getting him players who can maximize his tremendous potential. This is exactly what the Buffalo Bills did when they picked former Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman in the second round of the 2024 NFL draft.

In going over the Bills picks from 2024 as well as their current roster during training camp, Coleman projects to be the team’s only rookie starter. However, we have our eye on two other Bills rookies who could see significant rookie reps on defense.

Safety Cole Bishop is a great all-around player who is backing up Taylor Rapp right now but his athleticism should give him a foot in the door as the team’s third safety and interior coverage safety.

Defensive lineman DeWayne Carter is another guy who is pro-ready enough to be a rotational defensive lineman with Ed Oliver and Daquan Jones.

Finally, we have to mention former Penn State cornerback Daequan Hardy. Hardy is no threat to take over the nickel cornerback but he definitely has a foothold on being the team’s primary punt returner.

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Can rookie Cole Bishop reverse the Bills’ safety woes in 2024?

Rookie safety Cole Bishop could be the key to fixing one of the Bills’ most pressing roster issues.

Josh Allen is the face of the Buffalo Bills franchise, but from 2017 through 2022, as the team ascended to the status of perennial Super Bowl contender, the Bills’ defense was defined by the safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. While the Bills cycled through their fronts and linebackers, Poyer and Hyde were the spine of Sean McDermott’s defenses.

Until last season, when it all fell apart.

The Bills ranked 12th in Defensive DVOA in 2023 after ranking second the year before. That had a lot to do with horrible injury luck overall, but it also spoke to a decline at the safety position. Poyer allowed 33 catches on 45 targets for 349 yards, 136 yards after the catch, one touchdown, no interceptions, five pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 102.9. Hyde allowed 25 catches on 32 targets for 314 yards, 80 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, two interceptions, two pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 121.1.

Poyer is now with the Dolphins on a one-year, $2 million contract. Hyde is a free agent on the open market. The Bills, who are in rebuild mode in a lot of ways, are elevating Taylor Rapp as a safety after a 2023 season in which he earned starting reps the right way. And with the 60th overall pick in the 2024 draft, Buffalo took Utah safety Cole Bishop to round it out.

This could be a big deal. Last season for the Utes, Bishop allowed 14 catches on 27 targets for 170 yards, 58 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, two interceptions, one pass breakup, and an opponent passer rating of 65.4.

Moreover, Bishop perfectly fits what the Bills want their safeties to do.

“They want their safeties to do a lot,” Bishop said after the pick. “I think my versatility is something that kind of separates me, so being able to go to a team that you’re able to be versatile is huge. So I think I’m going to be able to excel as best I can.”

General manager Brandon Beane was certainly on board; he was pretty worried that Bishop wouldn’t be where Beane wanted him to be in the draft order.

“He really impressed us throughout the process, his knowledge of the game, his smarts, everyone at Utah raves about him,” Beane said of Bishop. “Probably one of the most consensus players on our board.

“To add a guy that fits our defense the way he does and where we had him on the board … I would have been thrilled giving up something in the draft, you know fourth, fifth round to go get him.”

Why are the Bills so happy about their new guy? Because Bishop can get it done all over the field.

From slot to the deep third, Bishop comes into the NFL with a well-developed skill set, having already played in a defense that’s NFL-conversant to a large degree.

Can Cole Bishop turn around one of the most important positions in Buffalo’s defense? Don’t bet against him.

NFL.com predicts who could be new starters for the Bills in 2024

NFL.com predicts who could be new starters for the #Bills in 2024:

Roster turnover has highlighted the 2024 offseason for the Buffalo Bills and we’re not even close to training camp yet.

Once that rolls around, we’ll get our answers as to who will not only get a chance start, but actually start for the Bills during the upcoming season.

For now, all we can do is speculate and NFL.com has done that. The league’s website took a stab at guessing the upcoming 2024 Bills starters.

With all the noted change, there were several new starters projected on both sides of the ball by NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal.

Here’s how the Bills’ projected starting lineup changes were projected:

NFL.com: The Bills view Keon Coleman as an outside “X” receiver. Many draft analysts saw him as a big option in the slot. Can he get open enough against outside cornerbacks? One confusing aspect of the offense is that most of Buffalo’s pass catchers (Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Kincaid) do their best work on the inside.

NFL.com: The Bills hope for Von Miller to be a starter again, but even quality snaps as a sub-package player would be a bonus. Despite his guaranteed money ($8.5 million in 2024, per Over The Cap), he’s not a lock to make the team if he doesn’t show progress in training camp. Miller’s presence is part of a defensive line that is not as deep as it once was, although the Bills added third- and fifth-round picks (DT DeWayne Carter and DE Javon Solomon) to the mix.

NFL.com: The Bills hope for Von Miller to be a starter again, but even quality snaps as a sub-package player would be a bonus. Despite his guaranteed money ($8.5 million in 2024, per Over The Cap), he’s not a lock to make the team if he doesn’t show progress in training camp. Miller’s presence is part of a defensive line that is not as deep as it once was, although the Bills added third- and fifth-round picks (DT DeWayne Carter and DE Javon Solomon) to the mix.