Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros odds predictions pick betting line spread

Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (20-10) take on the Houston Astros (10-20) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Guardians outlasted the Astros 3-2 in 10 innings Wednesday as OF Steven Kwan hit a go-ahead RBI double in the top half of the inning. The Guardians are 6-4 over their last 10 and improved to 12-6 on the road. They are 9-3 against the AL West.

The Astros snapped a 3-game winning streak with the Wednesday setback. They had come out of their offensive slumber with 8+ runs in 3 straight games. The Astros are 3rd in baseball with a .263 average and tied for 7th with 36 homers, but they’re tied for 15th with 4.5 R/game. Their 4.89 ERA is 27th in the game.

Guardians at Astros projected starters

LHP Logan Allen vs. RHP Spencer Arrighetti

Allen (3-1, 5.46 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 31 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K Friday against the Atlanta Braves
1 career start vs. HOU: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Arrighetti (0-3, 10.97 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 2.34 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 in 10 2/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K April 24 against Chicago Cubs
Has never faced Guardians
All of his pitches are being hit: 4-seamer (.318 BA), cutter (.417), sweeper (.429), curveball (.286), changeup (1.000)

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Guardians at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:56 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 6, Astros 4

Moneyline

With how bad Arrighetti has looked, a simple fade on him for plus-money on Cleveland is the way to go. The Astros are off to a terrible start, but I liken them to the NHL’s Edmonton Oilers, who had a ton of talent but got off to a miserable start before turning it around.

That’s not happening today, though.

Take the GUARDIANS +110.

Run line/Against the spread

The Guardians are 22-8 on the RL this season and 14-4 on the road. Meanwhile, Houston is 11-19 and 5-10 at home on the RL.

Take the GUARDIANS -1.5 (+165) for the value.

Over/Under

The Astros are 1-8-1 O/U over their last 10, and Cleveland is 4-5-1. We have hit 1 Over and 1 Under in the series. Wednesday’s Under featured a matchup of 2 stud pitchers, and this one features the opposite end of the spectrum.

LEAN OVER 9 (-105).

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Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (19-10) and Houston Astros (10-19) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 1-0

The Guardians lost a wild 10-9 game in 10 innings in the series opener. Cleveland took a 3-0 lead in the top of the 1st inning, but it fell behind 8-3 after 4 frames. The Guardians rallied for 5 runs to tie things up in the top of the 6th, and it led 9-8 after the top of the 10th. But the Astros walked it off on a Victor Caratini 2-run HR off of LHP Hunter Gaddis.

The Astros have pieced together a season-high 3-game winning streak, but remain in last place in the AL West Division. Houston has averaged 10.0 runs per game in the past 3 outings, aided by 2 games played at high elevation in Mexico City over the weekend.

RHP Justin Verlander will be making his 1st home start of the 2024 season, as he looks to keep the Houston win streak going.

Guardians at Astros projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Justin Verlander

McKenzie (2-2, 4.91 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.68 WHIP, 7.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 22 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 6 H (0 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in 6-4 home win vs. Boston Red Sox last Thursday
2023 road splits: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 4 H, 2 B, 2 K in 5-4 road loss vs. Seattle Mariners on April 1

Verlander (1-0, 1.74 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 10 1/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 3-1 road loss vs. Chicago Cubs last Thursday
2023 home splits: 6-5, 2.23 ERA, 86 1/3 IP, 32 R (31 ER), 74 H (12 HR), 19 BB, 82 K with .226 opponents’ batting average and 1.08 WHIP in 14 starts
Career vs. Cleveland: 23-24, 4.45 ERA, 345 2/3 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 123 BB, 364 K in 55 starts

Guardians at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:02 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-135) | Astros -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The Astros (-175) are a little on expensive side, although Verlander has fired out of the gate in his 2 previous starts, both on the road. Against a good team in his home season debut, this play would come with some risk.

PASS, and look to the run line instead for a little better of a value.

Run line/Against the spread

The ASTROS -1.5 (+110) are a good play at plus-money on the run line.

Verlander has had a tough time with Cleveland in his career, one of a handful of teams he has a career sub-.500 record against. His career ERA against the Guardians franchise is actually his highest against any opponent. However, he was also on some bad Detroit teams during a majority of that span, while Cleveland was quite good.

The Astros are playing their best baseball of the season, and Verlander is a safe play, especially against the walk-happy McKenzie.

Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-110) is worth playing lightly, but go with a half-unit play at most.

Verlander has been humming along, but McKenzie’s penchant for walks and the occasional long ball is concerning. Plus, these teams did just combine for 19 runs in the series opener. However, Houston had cashed the Under at a 10-0-1 clip in the 11 games prior to Tuesday, too.

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Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (19-9) and Houston Astros (9-19) open a 3-game series Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Astros won 4-2 in 2023

The Guardians dropped 2 of 3 games in Atlanta in a battle of 1st-place teams in Atlanta over the weekend. It was a well-pitched series, with the Under cashing in all 3 games. The Guardians offense has produced 4 or fewer runs in 3 in a row, and 5 of the past 6 outings.

The Astros played in the rarefied air of Mexico City against the Colorado Rockies Saturday and Sunday, sweeping a pair of games, while outscoring the Rockies 20-6. However, the totals were sky-high for that set, and the Under is on a 7-0 run in the past 7 games, while cashing at a 10-0-1 pace in the past 11 outings.

Guardians at Astros projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Hunter Brown

Carrasco (1-2, 4.63 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 23 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 H (3 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in 8-0 home loss vs. Boston Red Sox last Wednesday
2023 road splits: 1-0, 3.95 ERA, 13 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 11 H (0 HR), 7 BB, 14 K with .212 opponents’ batting average (OBA) and 1.32 WHIP in 3 starts

Brown (0-4, 9.68 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 2.49 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 17 2/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (0 HR), 2 BB, 6 K in 6-0 road loss vs. Washington Nationals on April 21
2024 home splits: 0-1, 1.80 ERA, 10 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 9 H (1 HR), 5 BB, 8 K with .250 OBA and 1.40 WHIP in 2 starts

Guardians at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-135) | Astros -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Guardians 5

Moneyline

The Astros (-175) are a little pricey given the struggles of Brown this season. He has been much better in his home park, and Carrasco has been mediocre for the Guardians (+145). However, this is way too much to risk for Houston, based on its overall record, and the erratic pitching of its young right-hander.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-135) have the best record in the American League, and it is the only team in the AL yet to incur double-digit losses. Cleveland also leads the AL with a plus-46 run differential. It should be able to pile up some runs against Brown and the Astros. Houston is just 4-9 in 13 games at home this season, so Cleveland could continue to add to those woes.

Over/Under

OVER 9 (-110) is worth a look based on the mediocre performances of Brown and Carrasco. We could have batting practice early on in this game, as both pitchers have had their ups and downs.

While the Under has dominated for Houston lately, with the offense struggling, it could be able to get to Cookie early.

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Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cleveland Guardians (53-54) and the Houston Astros (60-47) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Series tied 2-2

The Guardians made some headlines Monday, trading away RHP Aaron Civale to the Tampa Bay Rays for minor-league slugger prospect 1B Kyle Manzardo. Cleveland went on to lose 7-3 in Monday’s series opener in Houston despite a solid effort from new pitcher RHP Noah Syndergaard. However, “Thor” was hit in the leg by a comebacker and forced to leave the game after allowing just 1 earned run over 5 1/3 innings of work.

The Astros fell behind 2-0 Monday but rolled up 7 unanswered runs before the Guardians meekly answered with just 1 run in the top of the 9th inning. OF Yordano Alvarez had the big blow with a 3-run homer off of RHP Eli Morgan in the 6th inning after Syndergaard exited.

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Guardians at Astros projected starters

RHP Gavin Williams vs. LHP Framber Valdez

Williams (1-2, 3.35 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 37 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 8-3 home win vs. Kansas City Royals Wednesday
2023 road splits: 0-1, 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER – 0 HR), .132 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts

Valdez (8-7, 3.29 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 126 innings.

Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 13-5 home loss vs. Texas Rangers Wednesday
2023 home splits: 3-5, 2.74 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 23 ER – 4 HR), .244 OBA in 12 starts

Guardians at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Guardians +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Astros -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-130) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The Astros (-200) will cost you twice as much as your potential return, and that’s just too much risk and not enough reward. Betting heavy favorites like this can be lucrative, but just a couple of losses can wash all of the good progress away in a hurry.

PASS, and look to the run line instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The ASTROS -1.5 (+105) covered the run line as favorites in the series opener Monday, and are a good bet to do so again Tuesday. The Astros have covered twice in the past 3 games as a favorite, too.

Valdez was tuned up by the rival Rangers last time out and has concerningly allowed 15 runs across the past 15 innings. Still, the Cleveland bats have been rather quiet, cobbling together just 10 total runs of offense in the past 4 games. As such, the play is on Houston as a favorite on the run line.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-105) is the slight lean, after the total was an Over (9.5) on Monday.

The Under is 2-1-1 in the past 4 games for the Guardians and is a perfect 3-for-3 in the past 3 games for the Astros. Still, I expect Valdez to keep the Guardians bats quiet, and Williams has been fairly effective, albeit with a smaller sample size.

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Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cleveland Guardians (53-53) and the Houston Astros (59-47) open a 3-game series Monday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 2-1

The Guardians picked up a 5-0 win at Guaranteed Rate Field in the 4-game series finale against the Chicago White Sox Sunday, gaining the split. Cleveland has won 4 of the last 6 games overall to get back to .500 on the season.

Cleveland acquired RHP Noah Syndergaard from the Los Angeles Dodgers for INF Amed Rosario, and the pitcher known as “Thor” will make his debut Monday night. He hasn’t made a start since June 7 due to a blister.

The Astros dropped 2 of 3 games against the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend at Minute Maid Park, and Houston has dropped 3 of the last 4 games overall.

Houston is seeking revenge after losing 2 of 3 games at Progressive Field in Cleveland back in June 9-11, as the Over cashed in 2 of those 3 outings.

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Guardians at Astros projected starters

RHP Noah Syndergaard vs. RHP J.P. France

Syndergaard (1-4, 7.16 ERA – with the Dodgers) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 55 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K in an 8-6 road loss vs. the Cincinnati Reds on June 7
2023 road splits: 0-2, 10.96 ERA (23 IP, 28 ER – 6 HR), .366 opponent batting average (OBA) in 6 starts

France (6-3, 2.87 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 84 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in a 4-3 home win vs. the Texas Rangers last Tuesday
2023 home splits: 2-1, 3.96 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 16 ER – 7 HR), .245 OBA in 6 starts

Guardians at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:27 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Guardians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Astros -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-125) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Guardians at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 7, Guardians 3

Moneyline

The Astros (-190) are a little too expensive for my liking, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s just over my personal moneyline limit of -180 for a standalone wager.

PASS, and look to the run line instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The ASTROS -1.5 (+105) are a strong play at home on the run line.

I simply do not trust Syndergaard, as he looks to resurrect his career after an absolutely brutal stretch with the Dodgers. Toss in the fact he hasn’t pitched since June 7 after dealing with a blister issue, and he is likely to have some rust.

Look for Houston to tee off on the new addition, grabbing a little revenge in the process after the Guardians were rude hosts in Cleveland last month.

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Over/Under

OVER 9 (-110) is the slight lean, and the Astros should do most of the heavy lifting to get this one over the finish line.

Again, Syndergaard is making his 1st start with the Guardians, and he is taking the mound in a major league game for the first time in nearly 2 calendar months after a blister issue. If this were in Detroit, let’s say, or Kansas City, the results might be different. But facing a Houston team which was embarrassed over the weekend in 2 of 3 games against Tampa Bay isn’t good. The Astros should be ready to tee off.

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Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (27-16) host the Cleveland Guardians (18-20) for the 2nd of their 3-game series at Minute Maid Park with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cleveland won the series opener Monday 6-1. Guardians SP Triston McKenzie went 7 IP with 1 ER on 3 H, 1 HR and 1 BB with 3 K and 3B Jose Ramirez hit 2-for-5 with a HR, 1 double, 1 stolen base and 4 RBIs.

Guardians at Astros projected starters

RHP Zach Plesac vs. LHP Framber Valdez

Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Cleveland’s 5-4 home loss May 17 to the Cincinnati Reds with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.

Valdez is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 47 IP over 8 starts.

Last start: Won 5-1 at home vs. the Texas Rangers May 19 with 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
2021 vs. the Guardians: Won 7-2 in Cleveland July 1 with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 5 BB and 6 K.

Guardians at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:53 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Guardians +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-117) | Astros -1.5 (-103)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Guardians 2

Money line

LEAN ASTROS (-220) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Guardians (+175) Tuesday, but that’s accurately accounted for in the pricing.

The Astros crush right-handed pitching while the Guardians struggle vs. lefties, Valdez is in elite form whereas Plesac has regressed and Houston’s bullpen has the best ERA in MLB.

Houston’s RL is a better option and “risk” 1 unit instead of betting 1 unit if betting the Astros (-220).

The Astros are 12-4 SU as home favorites and 7-2 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Guardians, who are 5-11 SU as road underdogs.

It’s only a LEAN ASTROS (-220) because Houston’s RL has a better payout.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET ASTROS -1.5 (-103) based on their aforementioned edges over the Guardians +1.5 (-117) and Cleveland is just 7-9 RL as road underdogs.

Houston’s lineup ranks 4th in wRC+ (120), 7th in both wOBA (.325) and hard-hit rate (32.6%) and 5th in BB/K rate (0.43) vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.

While Cleveland’s lineup has a 80 wRC+ (ranked 26th), .274 in wOBA (28th) and a 28.6% hard-hit rate (19th).

Valdez grades in the 98th percentile of barrel rate, 81st percentile in hard-hit rate and 88th percentile in expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast. Also, all 5 of Valdez’s pitches has a minus-run value.

BET the ASTROS -1.5 (-103).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-125) since Houston’s RL is my best bet in this game.

But, Cleveland’s lineup is terrible vs. left-handed pitching, Valdez is dealing at the moment and Minute Maid Park is more pitcher-friendly, ranking 26th in park factor.

Also, the Guardians are 0-4 O/U in their last 4 games, the Astros are 0-4 O/U in Valdez’s last 4 starts and Houston is 8-26 O/U as favorites (4-12 O/U as home favorites).

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Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (17-20) open a 3-game set with the Houston Astros (27-15) Monday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Guardians are 4-6 in the last 10 games, including 1-3 in the last 4. They lost 4-2 Sunday at home to the Detroit Tigers.

Houston won 3 of a 4-game set at home vs. the Texas Rangers entering Monday. The Astros are 6-4 in their last 10, including wins in their last 2.

The Astros beat the Guardians 6-1 in last year’s season series, outscoring Cleveland 37-21.

Guardians at Astros projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Luis Garcia

Cleveland hasn’t officially announced a starter, but McKenzie is projected to get the nod. McKenzie is 2-3 with a 2.97 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 IP over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Last start: 3-1 road loss at the Minnesota Twins May 15 with 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
2021 vs. the Astros: One start, a 9-3 loss at Houston July 20 with 4 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.

Garcia is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

Last start: 5-1 road loss at the Boston Red Sox Wednesday with 4 IP, 3 ER (5 R), 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
2021 vs. the Guardians: One start, a 9-3 home win July 20 with 6-scoreless IP with 3 H, 0 BB and 8 K.

Guardians at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:42 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Guardians +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Astros -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-130) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Guardians at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Guardians 2

Money line

RISK only 1 UNIT on the ASTROS (-200) instead of betting to win 1 unit because Houston’s ML is expensive. The Astros have a 3-phase edge over the Guardians: Starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Houston’s bullpen has the best ERA in baseball (2.64) and the lineup has the most wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching (122), according to FanGraphs. Cleveland’s lineup has impressive advanced hitting numbers against righties, but the lowest hard-hit rate in the MLB (25.6%).

The Astros are 12-3 as home favorites and the Guardians are 4-11 as road underdogs. Garcia has a 3.01 xFIP, 0.80 WHIP and 25.4 K-BB% at home this season, whereas McKenzie’s numbers slightly dip on the road.

The ASTROS (-200) are the right side, but I wouldn’t risk more than 1 UNIT because of the high price. However, this is my favorite wager in this game.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a “heavy” lean toward the Astros -1.5 (+105) because of their aforementioned 3-phase edge and the Guardians are 6-9 RL as road underdogs.

However, 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings were decided by a single run, Houston is just 7-8 RL as a home favorite and 4 of Garcia’s 7 starts have been 1-run games.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-115).

Houston is 2-5 O/U in Garcia’s 7 starts and 4-11 O/U as a home favorite. The Under has the heavier juice (-115), which suggests oddsmakers are steering bettors towards the Over 8.5 (-107).

Both of these lineups are productive against right-handed pitching, the weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the low-to-mid-80s and a light breeze blowing out to center field.

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