The Cleveland Guardians (17-20) open a 3-game set with the Houston Astros (27-15) Monday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Guardians are 4-6 in the last 10 games, including 1-3 in the last 4. They lost 4-2 Sunday at home to the Detroit Tigers.
Houston won 3 of a 4-game set at home vs. the Texas Rangers entering Monday. The Astros are 6-4 in their last 10, including wins in their last 2.
The Astros beat the Guardians 6-1 in last year’s season series, outscoring Cleveland 37-21.
Guardians at Astros projected starters
RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Luis Garcia
Cleveland hasn’t officially announced a starter, but McKenzie is projected to get the nod. McKenzie is 2-3 with a 2.97 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 IP over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: 3-1 road loss at the Minnesota Twins May 15 with 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Astros: One start, a 9-3 loss at Houston July 20 with 4 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.
Garcia is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: 5-1 road loss at the Boston Red Sox Wednesday with 4 IP, 3 ER (5 R), 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Guardians: One start, a 9-3 home win July 20 with 6-scoreless IP with 3 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
Guardians at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:42 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Guardians +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Astros -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-130) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Guardians at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Guardians 2
Money line
RISK only 1 UNIT on the ASTROS (-200) instead of betting to win 1 unit because Houston’s ML is expensive. The Astros have a 3-phase edge over the Guardians: Starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Houston’s bullpen has the best ERA in baseball (2.64) and the lineup has the most wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching (122), according to FanGraphs. Cleveland’s lineup has impressive advanced hitting numbers against righties, but the lowest hard-hit rate in the MLB (25.6%).
The Astros are 12-3 as home favorites and the Guardians are 4-11 as road underdogs. Garcia has a 3.01 xFIP, 0.80 WHIP and 25.4 K-BB% at home this season, whereas McKenzie’s numbers slightly dip on the road.
The ASTROS (-200) are the right side, but I wouldn’t risk more than 1 UNIT because of the high price. However, this is my favorite wager in this game.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a “heavy” lean toward the Astros -1.5 (+105) because of their aforementioned 3-phase edge and the Guardians are 6-9 RL as road underdogs.
However, 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings were decided by a single run, Houston is just 7-8 RL as a home favorite and 4 of Garcia’s 7 starts have been 1-run games.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-115).
Houston is 2-5 O/U in Garcia’s 7 starts and 4-11 O/U as a home favorite. The Under has the heavier juice (-115), which suggests oddsmakers are steering bettors towards the Over 8.5 (-107).
Both of these lineups are productive against right-handed pitching, the weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the low-to-mid-80s and a light breeze blowing out to center field.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[mm-video type=playlist id=01fb7dafw2b08817yr player_id=none image=https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/wp-content/plugins/mm-video/images/playlist-icon.png]
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]