The Cleveland Guardians (53-53) and the Houston Astros (59-47) open a 3-game series Monday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 2-1
The Guardians picked up a 5-0 win at Guaranteed Rate Field in the 4-game series finale against the Chicago White Sox Sunday, gaining the split. Cleveland has won 4 of the last 6 games overall to get back to .500 on the season.
Cleveland acquired RHP Noah Syndergaard from the Los Angeles Dodgers for INF Amed Rosario, and the pitcher known as “Thor” will make his debut Monday night. He hasn’t made a start since June 7 due to a blister.
The Astros dropped 2 of 3 games against the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend at Minute Maid Park, and Houston has dropped 3 of the last 4 games overall.
Houston is seeking revenge after losing 2 of 3 games at Progressive Field in Cleveland back in June 9-11, as the Over cashed in 2 of those 3 outings.
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Guardians at Astros projected starters
RHP Noah Syndergaard vs. RHP J.P. France
Syndergaard (1-4, 7.16 ERA – with the Dodgers) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 55 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K in an 8-6 road loss vs. the Cincinnati Reds on June 7
- 2023 road splits: 0-2, 10.96 ERA (23 IP, 28 ER – 6 HR), .366 opponent batting average (OBA) in 6 starts
France (6-3, 2.87 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 84 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in a 4-3 home win vs. the Texas Rangers last Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 2-1, 3.96 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 16 ER – 7 HR), .245 OBA in 6 starts
Guardians at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:27 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Astros -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-125) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 7, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The Astros (-190) are a little too expensive for my liking, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s just over my personal moneyline limit of -180 for a standalone wager.
PASS, and look to the run line instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The ASTROS -1.5 (+105) are a strong play at home on the run line.
I simply do not trust Syndergaard, as he looks to resurrect his career after an absolutely brutal stretch with the Dodgers. Toss in the fact he hasn’t pitched since June 7 after dealing with a blister issue, and he is likely to have some rust.
Look for Houston to tee off on the new addition, grabbing a little revenge in the process after the Guardians were rude hosts in Cleveland last month.
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Over/Under
OVER 9 (-110) is the slight lean, and the Astros should do most of the heavy lifting to get this one over the finish line.
Again, Syndergaard is making his 1st start with the Guardians, and he is taking the mound in a major league game for the first time in nearly 2 calendar months after a blister issue. If this were in Detroit, let’s say, or Kansas City, the results might be different. But facing a Houston team which was embarrassed over the weekend in 2 of 3 games against Tampa Bay isn’t good. The Astros should be ready to tee off.
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