Fantasy football preview: New Orleans Saints aerial attack

Do the Saints offer fantasy draft picks behind their standout WR1?

In analyzing any team’s passing game for fantasy football talent, everything starts with who is throwing the ball. If you have don’t have an elite quarterback, everyone’s value takes a hit.

The New Orleans Saints do not have one.

In most ADP rankings, Derek Carr is on the cusp of being left off drafted rosters. Do you take Carr over someone like Geno Smith, Will Levis, Daniel Jones or Bryce Young? There isn’t a lot of confidence that Carr can get the job done as anything but a one-week plug-in for a desperate fantasy roster.

One certainty is that Carr has locked in on his primary target – wide receiver Chris Olave, who was targeted 138 times in 16 games last season, catching 87 passes for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns. He’s on the border of a WR1 or WR2 in 12-team fantasy leagues. The rest of those in the Saints’ passing game are a different story. They’ll be fighting for what’s left beyond Olave.

Is the risk worth the reward with Saints WR Michael Thomas?

After a serious career derailment, is it time to get behind Thomas once again?

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas has been a roller coaster of ups and downs in his career – reaching the highest of peaks and the sharpest of drops over his seven NFL seasons.

In his first four seasons with Drew Brees, it looked as though Thomas was building a first-ballot Hall of Fame resume. In 63 games, he caught 470 passes for 5,512 yards and 32 touchdowns. Then lower-body injuries started piling up, and he began missing a ton of time – ironically coinciding with signing a massive five-year, $96 million contract.

In 2020, Thomas played in just seven games – missing time with ankle and hamstring injuries. The team felt he needed surgery to fix the nagging ankle problem, but Thomas received a second opinion that said rehabilitation could heal it. It didn’t, and Thomas had ankle surgery in June 2021 – missing the entire season and creating an ugly rift between himself and the coaching staff. Supposedly fully healed, Thomas suffered a toe injury in Week 3 of last season that sidelined him the remainder of the year.

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Given the strained relationship, many organizations would have parted ways with Thomas, but his contract is the rub. He signed an incentive-heavy, one-year deal for $10 million that could reach $15 million. However, with his restructured deal, if he was traded or released this year, the Saints would take a dead money cap hit of $36 million (or $21.9 million if he is moved out prior to the 2024 season). Like it or not, the Saints almost have to keep him if they want to be competitive, even if he no-shows again this year.

Thomas has missed 40 of the last 49 games the Saints have played, and anyone who invested in him as a presumptive fantasy starter was burned. This may be Thomas’ final year to attempt to reclaim his spot as an elite receiver, but patience is running out after three years of providing nothing.

Fantasy football outlook

Thomas has shown the ability to catch passes in bunches – he has averaged 7.2 receptions a game throughout his career. But what seems just as clear is that there are a lot fewer people who believe in Thomas as a fantasy threat than there have ever been.

In most Average Draft Position rankings, Thomas is checking in at about No. 45, which makes him a WR4 or WR5 in most leagues. A ranking that low is indicative those conducting early drafts have no faith that Thomas’ lower body will be able to endure the strain of a full season. Why not take someone else who provides more durability? The shine is definitely off of Thomas and, if history repeats itself with injury, this will be his last season in New Orleans.

The flip side of the argument is that a fantasy WR5 isn’t being counted on to be in weekly lineups. With four wide receivers in front of him on a roster, Thomas becomes a much more low-risk investment as the fifth guy.

While it’s understandable to be leery of Thomas by not touching him until you have rostered four receivers, few rank as low as him and have the ceiling that Thomas provides. Eventually, risk and value will converge – but most likely as a fifth receiver with big upside.

Fantasy football pros and cons: Garrett Wilson vs. Chris Olave vs. Skyy Moore

Which of these three rookie receivers is the best fantasy option?

There was a time when it was deemed that wide receivers coming into the NFL learned the pro game as rookies, improved in their second year, and reached their full potential in their third season. That timeline has been sped up in recent years, and now the expectation is for a shorter learning curve as a rookie and hitting the ground running in the second year as the NFL becomes more pass-reliant.

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We take a look at the fantasy impact of three rookie receivers from the Class of 2022, their strengths and weaknesses and their potential to make an immediate impact – picks Nos. 10 and 11, respectively, in the draft Garrett Wilson (New York Jets) and Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints) as well as Skyy Moore (Kansas City Chiefs), taken with the pick No. 54.

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The case for and against Garrett Wilson

  • He is viewed as the best route-runner in a deep and talented 2022 wide receiver draft class and has a variety of release packages that allow him to get separation in different ways.
  • He had a breakout season as a junior at Ohio State last season, catching 70 passes for 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns in a star-studded position room.
  • He is explosive in a short area with an incredible jab step and the ability to stack a defender.
  • He has a ton of natural athletic intangibles, including a big catch radius, the ability to run past defenders and exceptional body
  • Any expectations have to be tempered by the fact he is playing for the Jets, where Zach Wilson is still in the formative stages of his career and needs as many weapons as he can get.
  • Had too many concentration drops as he looked to make plays before securing the ball – a problem that can be solved with coaching, experience, and a commitment to mechanics.
  • He needs to be more physical, because he doesn’t consistently beat press coverage at the line.
Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The case for and against Chris Olave

  • A productive, four-year athlete, who caught 32 touchdown passes in 31 games over his last three seasons. He saved his best for last, catching 65 passes for 936 yards and 13 touchdowns as a senior.
  • He’s a smart player who quickly picked up the Saints’ playbook and has looked the part from Day 1 of rookie minicamp by showing his football intelligence.
  • He has elite footwork, which creates routine separation from defenders that gives his quarterback open throwing windows.
  • Comes to an offense with a lot of firepower if the key component parts can stay healthy, with QB Jameis Winston, wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry and do-it-all running back Alvin Kamara.
  • With Landry locked in as a slot receiver, Olave will likely draw a lot of single coverage on the outside if Thomas returns to form and demands added defensive attention that was required before he was slowed by injuries.
  • Olave struggled against physical coverage and will need to improve his core strength to become an elite receiver at the NFL level.
  • He is viewed by a lot of scouts as a player with a high floor and low ceiling, which has historically been the recipe for a long career but perhaps never being an elite receiver.
  • He doesn’t win enough 50/50 balls when in the red zone.
Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The case for and against Skyy Moore

  • In the post-Tyreek Hill era, Moore will be given an immediate opportunity to contribute as Patrick Mahomes deals with a completely revamped wide receiver corps.
  • Has an elite quarterback on his side
  • Moore has experience playing both inside and outside, which gives him an edge for playing more snaps because of his down-and-distance flexibility to line up anywhere.
  • He was the first freshman since 2014 to earn First-Team All-MAC honors and received such recognition twice in three years.
  • A prolific receiver who dominated lesser competition in 2021, catching 94 passes for 1,283 yards and 10 touchdowns.
  • He has a small frame and will likely need to add bulk to be optimally effective.
  • Moore didn’t run a full route tree at Western Michigan and hasn’t shown elite burst out of his cuts to achieve separation, which is a problem that will only be more pronounced in the NFL.
  • He is in a crowded receiver room with Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling likely starting training camp in front of him.

Fantasy football outlook

All three of the rookie receivers have the ability to make an immediate impact, but they are entering the league in very different situations.

Olave should have the opportunity to make the most immediate impact, because he plays in a division that is poor defensively, and he should step in to a significant role in the Saints offense early on. He is a borderline WR2 but more likely a WR3 with the chance to make the climb as the season progresses.

Wilson has the best chance to get the most reps of any of the three. The depth on the Jets at wide receiver is markedly less than the Saints and Chiefs, so he will get more snaps, which translate into more opportunities. The question is whether the Jets offense can consistently create enough big-play opportunities. He has solid WR3 potential, but in most leagues he will more than likely be a WR4 with strong upside.

Moore is the wild card of the group. He was the 13th wide receiver taken in the draft, so clearly other teams thought more highly of others than him. But, he has Mahomes throwing the ball, and he has made fantasy-relevant players out of a lot of receivers in his short career. Moore is making a big jump to the NFL from the MAC, so he will likely take more time than the others, making him an end-of-the-draft stash player on the back end of rosters in hopes of delivering early in the high-powered Chiefs offense.

Fantasy football injury outlook: New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas

What’s the current update on the one-time fantasy football stud?

No player in the history of the NFL had four seasons to start a career like New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas. In four years, he caught 470 passes for 5,512 yards and 32 touchdowns – seeing his reception and yardage numbers grow each year and getting whispers about Canton circulating.

He was as dominant as any position player in the league and prolonged Drew Brees’ Hall of Fame career by becoming a go-to guy of historic proportions. In 2019, he earned a well-deserved second contract – five years, $96 million with $60 million in guarantees.

All was good in New Orleans until Week 1 of the 2020 season. Thomas suffered a significant ankle injury, which limited him to just seven games that season, as the Saints kept him on the active roster for six weeks expecting he would return sooner.

He didn’t.

With Brees retired and the Saints’ short-term future in question, Thomas surprised many by waiting until June 2021 to have ankle surgery, assuring he wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season. As it turned out, he had a setback in his recovery and needed a second surgery in November – completely erasing his 2021 season.

Given his contract, which includes a $38.3 million dead cap number this year, $25.5 million in 2023, and $13.6 million in 2024, it’s clear that Thomas isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. But that doesn’t mean the Saints aren’t hedging their bets and looking at their options in the event they spend a third straight year largely without Thomas – and clearly without the Thomas they remember.

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It wasn’t so much the utilization of their first-round draft pick on Chris Olave that perked up the ears of those wondering if they should be doubting Thomas, it was the free-agent signing of Jarvis Landry that set off the alarms.

The investment in the position wasn’t necessary if there was conviction on the part of the front office that Thomas will be coming back and at 100 percent. When asked about the receiver’s rehabilitation prior to the draft, general manager Mickey Loomis said, “His progress is hopefully going well.”

Hopefully? That sounds like a disconnect between a player and the team’s medical staff, which wouldn’t be the first time with Thomas.

Thomas’ latest public update positions him to be ready for training camp. Earlier this week, head coach Dennis Allen said, “I think he’s doing well in his rehab.”

Think?

It seems clear the Saints have an after-Thomas plan in place. The last time Thomas took the field, Brees was his quarterback and Sean Payton was his coach. Both are gone.

Even if the man once known as “Can’t Guard Mike” makes it back, there is more competition for targets and a different look to his own locker room than he’s known in his NFL career. Quarterback Jameis Winston (knee) is the presumed starter after re-signing after knee reconstruction, and Andy Dalton will be waiting in the wings if the former Tampa passer isn’t ready in time.

Fantasy football takeaway

Devalue Thomas on your draft board, because the glory days of his first four seasons are getting dimmer in the rearview mirror. His current placement as an early pick in Round 4 assumes he’s a top-flight WR2, which just isn’t a wise approach.

He’s a much safer No. 3 in PPR, although there’s still enough upside to suggest he could be a No. 2 over a full slate. Be prepared to stockpile positional depth if you opt for him as a second wideout.

Fantasy football team previews: NFC South

Key coaching changes and QB news have dominated the NFC South’s offseason.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West