Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 10

Reviewing interesting paces among fantasy football’s most surprising statistics.

We’re on the verge of double-digit weeks in NFL 2020, and as usual, the first nine weeks have produced no shortage of surprises.

The unexpected occurrences of the fantasy variety are our focus here, so this week we’re rolling with the TT&T: Surprise Statistics edition. Here are eight unanticipated figures we’ve culled from the season’s statistical tables to date, and we kick off things with …

The 6-2 Baltimore Ravens once again boast one of the league’s best records and are one of the highest-scoring teams with an average of 28.4 points per game. However, the Ravens aren’t offering much in the way of reliable fantasy production as no offensive player, outside of fringe-TE1 Mark Andrews, is currently ranked in must-start territory in standard 10-team leagues.

It starts with quarterback Lamar Jackson, fantasy’ No. 1 QB a season ago with an average of 30.9 fantasy points per contest — 4.8 points more than the next-closest quarterback. This season, he’s slipped to 23.6 points per game, which puts him 12th among QBs who have played at least five contests.

Jackson ranks second at the position with 469 rushing yards, but his aerial production has taken a marked dip as he is averaging nearly 20 fewer passing yards (189.1 from 208.4) per outing and is on pace for 24 passing touchdowns after tossing a league-leading 36 a year ago.

Even more perplexing is the rest of the backfield, which is currently an unusable, three-headed quagmire with none of the top three running backs (rookie J.K. Dobbins, Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards) averaging more than 8.1 fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) per game. That’s low-end RB4 territory folks.

As for the wide receivers, speedy sophomore Marquise Brown leads the team with 49 targets, 30 receptions and 417 receiving yards, but he’s only averaging 10.5 fantasy points per contest (tied for 49th among WRs) and has finished with 9.7 fantasy points or fewer in five of eight games.

Andrews, meanwhile, is averaging 10.7 fantasy points (tied for eighth) courtesy of his five TD grabs, which are tied for third at the position. Still, Andrews ranks 13th among tight ends in receptions with 26 and 15th in yards with 297 and has not topped 6.2 fantasy points in a game since Week 5.

With 24 touchdown passes in eight games so far, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is on pace to throw a career-high 48 TDs.

Rodgers is red hot with at least three TD passes and 283 passing yards in each of his last three games as his connection with WR Davante Adams (30 receptions for 422 yards and six TDs on 39 targets in those three contests) has gone from fire to mini-inferno.

Overall, only league-leader Russell Wilson (3.5) is averaging more TD tosses per outing than Rodgers, who is on pace to easily eclipse in season totals in his NFL MVP seasons of 2011 (45) and 2014 (38) and 2016 when he led the league with 40 TD passes.

Over the previous two seasons, Rodgers threw only 25 and 26 scoring passes and finished with TD-pass percentages (4.2 and 4.6) well below his career mark of 6.1. And with the Packers drafting a quarterback and failing to provide Rodgers with any notable pass-catching help in free agency or the draft — outside of WR Devin Funchess, who opted out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns — it’s no surprise that the soon-to-be 37-year-old Rodgers wasn’t a summer fantasy priority with an ADP of 11 among quarterbacks.

But thanks to his eye-popping TD numbers (8.6 percentage), he’s currently fourth among QBs with 29.5 fantasy points per game and is on track for his best fantasy finish since 2016 when he was the overall QB1.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has thrown for 300 yards or more in five of nine games this season. He only hit that mark four times in his first career 28 contests.

The third-year quarterback matched his career high (from Week 2 of this season) with 415 passing yards and four total touchdowns Sunday in a 44-34 shootout win over Wilson and the Seahawks.

On the season, only the Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan (2,746) and the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (2,687) have thrown for more yards than Allen’s 2,587, and he’s averaging 287.4 yards per contest — a whopping 103-yard increase over his per-game average (over 28 contests) entering the season.

Allen’s 2020 aerial numbers have taken huge leaps across the board as his completion percentage of 68.9 is way up over his last season’s 58.8, his TD-pass percentage of 6.0 is well ahead of 2019’s 4.3, and his yards-per-attempt average of 8.2 is up over last season’s average of 6.7.

And with his rushing numbers (241 yards, five TDs) holding strong, Allen is well on pace for his second straight top-10 fantasy QB finish.

Playing for the 1-7 Jacksonville Jaguars, undrafted rookie James Robinson, from FCS Illinois State, ranks fifth among running backs with an average of 18.7 fantasy points per game.

With more rushing yards (580) than Ezekiel Elliott (572) and James Conner (520), more receiving yards (225) than Clyde Edwards-Helaire (224) and Dalvin Cook (173), more total TDs (seven) than Elliott and Josh Jacobs (six apiece) and more total touches (159) than Alvin Kamara (156) and fellow rookie Jonathan Taylor (126), Robinson has arguably been the come-out-of-nowhere fantasy find of the season.

Robinson was the 55th running back drafted on average with the preseason confusion over which Jacksonville RB — remember Devine Ozigbo and Chris Thompson? — would emerge as the team’s RB1 after the release of RB Leonard Fournette and the Reserve/COVID-19 list placement of Ryquell Armstead.

But it’s been Robinson from Day 1 as he’s handled a full 85.0 percent of the Jags’ total running back touches, including 132 of 139 rushing attempts.

He’s been a consistent fantasy force as well with double-digit fantasy points in all eight of his games this season and 14.7 or more points in six of his last seven outings.

RB Kenyan Drake and WR DeAndre Hopkins, both drafted as fantasy starters, are not even the Arizona Cardinals’ leaders in yards per touch or fantasy points per touch at their respective positions.

Drake is averaging 0.3 more fantasy points per game (12.2-11.9) than fellow Cards RB Chase Edmonds but has done so on 43 more touches in one fewer contest.

Edmonds is only 55 total yards behind Drake, and even given the latter’s 4-3 edge in TDs, Edmonds has been the far more efficient back, averaging 1.6 more yards per touch (5.9-4.3) and 0.47 more fantasy points per touch (1.15-0.68).

It’s much the same with the Cards’ wide receiver contingent.

Hopkins easily paces the group in receptions (60) and receiving yards (734), but second-year wideout Christian Kirk’s 24 receptions have resulted in 400 yards and six TDs — second only on the team to QB Kyler Murray’s eight rushing scores.

Factoring in a 3-yard run for Kirk, he’s still averaging 4.4 more yards per touch (16.8-12.2) and 1.61 more fantasy points per touch (4.13-2.52) than Hopkins.

Simply due to volume, Drake and Hopkins have been the more productive fantasy assets overall, but definitely do not undervalue or overlook the highly efficient seasons Edmonds and Kirk are enjoying on one of the league’s most potent offenses (first with 422.0 total yards per game and sixth with 29.3 points per outing).

Through nine games with the Carolina Panthers, WR Robby Anderson is only three receptions shy of his career season high of 63.

Only the Buffalo Bills’ Stefon Diggs (63) and the Los Angeles’ Chargers’ Keenan Allen (62) have caught more passes than Anderson’s 60, leaving him only three catches short of his career season high of 63 set in 2017 (16 games).

Anderson has done so this season with a 75.0 catch percentage, hauling in 60 of 80 targets. Entering the season, Anderson sported only a 54.2 career catch percentage and never caught more than 55.3 percent of his targets in four previous seasons with the New York Jets.

Anderson is simply being utilized on a larger route tree than he was as a deep-threat specialists with the Jets, and is averaging 2.3 fewer yards per reception (12.5-14.8) as a result. Anderson, though, has been much more efficient this season, averaging 1.4 more yards per target (9.4-8.0) than he did in his four previous campaigns.

However, Anderson has fallen off his career pace in TD receptions with only one so far in nine games. He averaged five per season in his four years in New York, with a total of 18 over his final three campaigns.

That’s the main reason why Anderson — a wideout who ranks third in both receptions and receiving yards (751) — ranks 18th overall at the position with an average of 15.7 fantasy points per game.

Diggs has 33.8 more fantasy points than fellow wideout and former Minnesota Vikings teammate Adam Thielen so far this season, despite catching four fewer TD passes.

Diggs is soaring in his new Buffalo home, leading the league in targets (91), receptions (63) and receiving yards (813) through Week 9.

Thielen, meanwhile, ranks 24th in the league in targets (58) and receptions (37) and 27th in receiving yards (480).

Thielen, though, has played one fewer game with eight and is averaging only 1.9 fewer fantasy points per contest (16.1-18.0) than Diggs, thanks to his seven scoring grabs, which, as aforementioned, is four more than Diggs has and is tied for fourth overall among pass catchers.

In summary, it’s a stark example of how switching locales can benefit a player as Diggs now plays on a Bills team that has attempted the league’s seventh-most passes (320 or 35.6 per game) while Thielen remains with the run-heavy Vikings who have attempted the league’s fewest passes (209 or 26.1 per contest).

In their four previous seasons together with the Vikings, the two wideouts’ numbers were nearly identical across the board with Diggs totaling 872.9 fantasy points on 450 targets and 339 touches in 57 games and Thielen compiling 862.6 points on 435 targets and 316 touches in 58 contests.

At age 33 and playing on his fourth team in seven seasons, Chicago Bears tight end Jimmy Graham is tied for third among tight ends with five TD receptions.

That puts Graham on pace for nine scoring grabs after he finished with more than six TDs once in his previous six seasons.

In his previous two seasons in Green Bay, Graham hauled in five TD passes total and finished as the 12th and 21st-ranked fantasy tight end, respectively, in terms of total PPR fantasy points.

Currently, he’s the TE11 with an average of 10.6 fantasy points per contest, despite ranking 14th with 302 receiving yards.

Overall, though, only three tight ends — Travis Kelce (80), Darren Waller (72) and Evan Engram (64) — have more targets than Graham’s 55 and only five at the position have more receptions than Graham’s 35.

That can’t be overlooked at a fantasy position of ongoing scarcity.

Chase Edmonds set for heavy usage while Kenyan Drake is out

Kliff Kingsbury’s usage of Kenyan Drake in 2019 should give us an idea as to how Edmonds will be used while Drake is out.

The Arizona Cardinals have lost running back Kenyan Drake for what is expected to be several weeks due to an ankle injury. That means Chase Edmonds will become the starter.

He had a taste in 2019 when David Johnson was injured. In his first start, he had 126 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries. He got injured in his next game.

In a complementary role this season, he has been dynamic. He has averaged 6.1 yards per rushing attempt this season on 29 carries, gaining 176 yards and scoring a touchdown. He has also caught 26 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns.

Edmonds is ready.

“I busted my ass this offseason, truly,” he said after the Cardinals’ 37-34 overtime win over the Seattle Seahawks. “From before COVID even started, I kept working every single day.”

He worked out regularly with Trent Sherfield, Christian Kirk and Christ Streveler. Edmonds is preparing himself to be a starting running back.

Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has stated on more than one occasion he believes that Edmonds is a starting-caliber running back.

He will get a lot of work.

There has been some question about who will be Edmonds’ backup while Drake is out. Kingsbury doesn’t have a favorite right now between rookies Eno Benjamin and Jonathan Ward and veteran D.J. Foster, who is on the practice squad.

“I wouldn’t say there’s one that we’re leaning towards over the other two.” he told reporters on Monday. “We’ll have a competition with those guys and see who practices the best and then kind of take it from there.”

If Kingsbury is anything like he was last year, it won’t really matter who are the backups. They won’t get much usage.

From the time they acquired him in a trade, Drake had 123 carries and 28 receptions on 35 targets.

From the time Drake was acquired, David Johnson and Edmonds combined for 19 carries and six receptions.

In terms of playing time, Drake played 315 offensive snaps once he joined the team. Johnson and Edmonds combined for 116 total offensive snaps during that same time, and some of those were with Drake on the field. One game, all three were on the field for a play.

As long as Edmonds is healthy, he will get extensive playing time. He will likely only come out when he needs a breather, at least until someone behind him earns Kingsbury’s trust.

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RB Chase Edmonds to have ‘major role’ on offense, special teams moving forward

Kliff Kingsbury continues to be impressed by Edmonds’ ability to make plays.

While quarterback Kyler Murray and receiver DeAdnre Hopkins were the stars on offense for the Arizona Cardinals in their Week 1 win over the San Francisco 49ers, running back Chase Edmonds managed to find ways to make a big impact. He did it in the passing game, the running game and on special teams.

He continues to impress head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

“We feel Chase is a starting running back in this league, and you saw last year when he had his opportunity before he got hurt, he was playing his butt off, and that’s what we’ve seen all camp,” Kingsbury said to reporters on Wednesday. “He is no-nonsense, all about his business, works really hard at it, takes pride in his craft, and when he gets his opportunity, he makes the most of it. You saw that on Sunday.”

He scored the first touchdown of the game for the Cardinals on a 10-yard catch. His 20-yard run at the end of the half set up a 56-yard field goal. He also returned a kickoff 41 yards.

He is rapidly making himself a player that will be hard to keep off the field. Kingsbury is all about riding the hot hand. If he continues to produce, he will get opportunities.

“He’ll continue to have a major role in this offense and on special teams as well,” said the head coach. “But he’s a guy who can do it all.”

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WATCH: Chase Edmonds dives for pylon to get Cardinals’ 1st TD of 2020

He picks up the Cardinals’ first points of the season.

The Arizona Cardinals started slowly offensively, but the internal buzz about running back Chase Edmonds appears to be right on points. It was Edmonds who scored the first touchdown of the year for the Cardinals.

He did it with some flare.

After Ezekiel Turner blocked a punt, giving the Cardinals the ball at the 49ers’ 10-yard line, on the first play of the drive, Edmonds took a short pass from Kyler Murray, ran it and dove for the end zone. He just barely got the football to the pylon for the 10-yards score.

Edmonds is the Cardinals’ backup running back but is expected to have a prominent role in the offense. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has said he sees Edmonds as a starting running back in the NFL.

With the Cardinals’ first touchdown of the year, he should have many more opportunities to make plays.

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Cardinals on 20 sacks in 2020 campaign for Chandler Jones

Even Jones’ teammates want him to get the sack record.

Arizona Cardinals All-Pro pass rusher Chandler Jones has lofty sack goals for himself in 2020. He believes he can get the single-season record, passing Michael Strahan’s 22.5. A 20-sack season in general is special. He was one short of that in 2019, setting a career-high and franchise record 19 sacks last season.

He feels he can set the record and this season is a great opportunity to do it.

His teammates also want to see him get there. They are openly talking about 20 sacks for him.

Running back Chase Edmonds has a nickname for Jones this year.

“I’m calling him ‘Veinte’ right now this year because the goal is 20-plus (sacks),” he told reporters last week. “I know he wants to hit that record.”

Veinte, of course, is 20 in Spanish.

“I started calling him ‘Veinte’ about two months ago,” he said. “We were joking around with that.”

Defensive lineman Jordan Phillips also wants Jones to get to 20 sacks.

“If I can do what I need to do, I can get him to 20 sacks, 23 sacks,” he told reporters last week.

Jones has more help this year. Phillips had 9.5 sacks last season. Devon Kennard had seven each of the last two seasons.

While many might say these additions would take sacks away from Jones, the Cardinals feel like it will improve his chances of reaching such a rare number of sacks.

20 in 2020? That’s what everyone is shooting for.

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Young Cardinals can count on ‘3 amigos’ to help them feel comfortable

Chase Edmonds, Trent Sherfield and Christian Kirk go out of their way to help young players feel comfortable with the team.

As a result of the lack of an in-person offseason because of the coronavirus pandemic, NFL players on new teams have not had the opportunity to spend time with teammates in the locker room until training camp began. The process of building camaraderie and trust in the locker room was delayed, which surely makes it harder for players to find their place with their teammates, especially if they are a rookie coming into the league.

However, the young players on the Arizona Cardinals have some support, thanks to a trio of players who are conscious of the sometimes tough adjustment to the pros and the locker room.

Running back Chase Edmonds and receivers Christian Kirk and Trent Sherfield are pretty much inseparable. Edmonds refers to them as the “three amigos.”

During the downtime of the offseason when teams could not work out together, they worked out together nearly every day for two months with new quarterback Chris Streveler.

Now that they are in training camp, Edmonds tries to help all the young players feel comfortable.

“I try to embrace every single rookie, every single young guy coming in here because I remember how it was my rookie year just trying to find a place where you can be comfortable,” he told reporters recently after practice.

Edmonds, a fourth-round pick in 2018 out of Fordham, from where no other player had been drafted since 2010, remembers the adjustment. Sherfield was an undrafted player that year, while Kirk was drafted in the second round. It is tough for rookies to both feel comfortable and also not to say too much.

Edmonds reaches out to the young players now.

“I’ll always try to talk to guys,” he said. “If I see someone sitting alone at the lunch table, I’ll invite them over to the ‘three amigo’ table with me, Trent and Kirk.”

He wants them to “feel like it’s just football” and hopes to “just get guys where they can be confortable.”

Edmonds believes the Cardinals’ locker room is in great shape with veteran leaders and a good mix of young players.

That should help the team as it deals with a short offseason, no preseason and little time before the regular season begins.

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Cardinals view Chase Edmonds as a starting-caliber running back

Kenyan Drake is their No. 1 back, but they have 100% confidence in Edmonds.

After his performance in the second half of the season following his trade from the Miami Dolphins, Kenyan Drake is the clear number one running back on the Arizona Cardinals. However, the team believes it has not only one running back capable of starting in the NFL.

Despite bringing Drake back on the transition tag, head coach Kliff Kingsbury is a big fan of Chase Edmonds. In fact, had it not been for an injury, Edmonds might be the guy this year.

“We all feel like he’s a starting running back in this league and he does, too,” Kingsbury told reporters on Wednesday after practice. “Had he not gotten hurt, I’m not sure if we would have traded for Kenyan.”

Edmonds was coming off a 126-yard, three-touchdown performance against the New York Giants, but the next week against the New Orleans Saints, he injured his hamstring. That, combined with an injury to David Johnson, led to the trade for Drake, who went on to rush for 643 yards and eight touchdowns in the Cardinals’ final eight games.

“We liked Kenyan a lot,” Kingsbury added. “We may have done something after the season, but we felt that confident in what Chase brings. When he had his opportunities, he shined and he continues to shine. He can catch it. He can run it. He can block, splay special teams and he is really bright, football-wise, so he’s everything you want. I couldn’t be more impressed by him as a competitor and just a true pro.”

Edmonds will get opportunities in 2020, and the team’s trust in him is probably a large reason why it only committed to one year of Drake, signing him to a one-year transition tag deal.

The way Kingsbury talks about Edmonds, it is similar to how he talked about center Mason Cole a year ago. Cole had to sit behind A.Q. Shipley for a year and now is the starter.

We might be looking at the same scenario. If things go as planned, Drake will get paid in free agency and the Cardinals will be able to use Edmonds as the starting running back in 2021.

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Fantasy football: 6 running back sleepers to target for 2020

This group of under-the-radar RBs will be worth the late-round pick.

The expanding list of running backs with pass-catching abilities has created a dramatic shift in fantasy football — especially PPR (points per reception) leagues.

Considering the high rate of touches they receive and the short dump passes that add up, it’s not a surprise. But, running backs average 3.3 seasons in the NFL because of the damage they take, leaving room for new players to emerge consistently. There’s an ever-revolving door of backs that will flow and fantasy owners can take advantage of that early.

Here are six sleeper choices that won’t gain much national attention at the start of the season, but have potential to rise as stars by the end.

Lamar Miller

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Lamar Miller is the only player on the list who shouldn’t be listed as a sleeper, but his health circumstances landed him here. Miller signed with the New England Patriots on Monday night after missing the 2019 season with the Houston Texans because of a torn ACL and MCL.

The 29-year-old running back has averaged 834 rushing yards and 224 receiving yards in his seven-year career. Miller’s sleeper status comes from the depth ahead of him with Sony Michel and James White. He’s coming off a Pro Bowl season in 2018 and has the potential to quickly become the primary back if Michel’s injury concerns don’t dissipate.

Miller finished 23rd in fantasy points in 2018 and it was largely to due with his 163 receiving yards — the second-lowest in his career. He’s joining a Josh McDaniels offense that thrives off of dump passes, which will be instrumental in helping Cam Newton gain comfortability in the offense.

Miller will make an immediate impact if his health allows him and could very easily shoot up to the No. 1 role early in the season. He’ll begin as an RB2 or flex option, but could quickly ascend into the top-tier fantasy role he once claimed.

Chase Edmonds

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Chase Edmonds has an extremely high ceiling. The third-year running back will enter a backfield that let go of David Johnson and features Kenyan Drake — who hasn’t started a full slate of 16 games in his four-year career.

He’s a strong candidate to pick up in the middle rounds and the rewards will be reaped early in the season. The Arizona Cardinals’ offense is ascending under Kyler Murray and with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Edmonds averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season, while erupting for 126 yards and three touchdowns in the only game he played more than 65 percent of the team’s snaps.

Edmonds will start off as a flex option, but his potential to quickly rise will make him worth the pick.

WATCH: Kenyan Drake’s debut with Cardinals resurfaces

Kenyan Drake had a dominate debut with the Arizona Cardinals after they sent a Day 3 pick to the Miami Dolphins in exchange.

Kenyan Drake was traded to the Arizona Cardinals from the Miami Dolphins in the middle of last season in exchange for a Day 3 pick, and it’s a trade that continues to pay off for Arizona.

Even from the debut with his new team, Drake immediately showed that he was well worth the asset Cardinals general manager Steve Keim had parted with, and recently, a fantasy football expert with FF Astronauts reposted a Drake’s highlights from that game.

As the fantasy expert points out in the tweet, it was a quick turnaround for Drake after being traded. And he would also be going against one of the league’s best defenses in the San Francisco 49ers, who would eventually come just short of winning a Super Bowl in February.

The result? Drake rumbled for 110 yards on 15 carries (7.3 yards per attempt) with a touchdown on the ground. The 6-foot-1, 211-pounder also added 52 yards and four receptions.

It was instantly one of the best performances of Drake’s career, and it proved that he was capable of handling the lead back duties in Arizona. In fact, head coach Kliff Kingsbury and company were so confident in Drake that they traded star running back David Johnson to the Texans in the offense.

In eight games with the team to finish 2019, Drake rushed for 643 yards and eight touchdowns on top of 171 yards receiving. Of those rushing yards, 363 of them came over the course of the last three games.

Yes, valued backup running back Chase Edmonds is still on the roster, and former Arizona State standout runner Eno Benjamin was drafted in the sixth round of the 2020 NFL Draft, but Drake is still expected to be a vital part of the offense this upcoming season.

Stay tuned for more updates on Kenyan Drake and other former Alabama stars in the NFL from Roll Tide Wire, part of the USA TODAY Sports College Wire sites!

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Christian Kirk, others have worked out with Cardinals QBs

Kirk spends a lot of time with Chase Edmonds and Trent Sherfield. They have thrown the ball around with Brett Hundley and Chris Streveler.

The Arizona Cardinals have not yet been able to get on the practice field as a team but several teammates here in the Phoenix area have managed to get some work in together. There has been talk of getting quarterback Kyler Murray together with his receivers and that is coming up, but some guys have been working out together and it has included Cardinals quarterbacks.

Receiver Christian Kirk said he spends a lot of time with teammates Trent Sherfield and Chase Edmonds. “We three like to stick together and we’re always with one another, so I do a lot of training with them,” he told reporters in a video conference last week.

Kirk said they have had quarterback Brett Hundley with them “a couple of times here or there” to throw the ball around a bit. Hundley lives in the Phoenix area. Chris Streveler, the quarterback who played in the Canadian Football League and signed with the team this offseason, also has worked out with them. “He’s been fun to get to know and be around,” Kirk said. “Hard-working guy, he’s been willing to learn and get out on the field and throw some route, being able to help him and get him up to speed so it isn’t overwhelming when it comes to training camp.”

Kirk also said he has done some working out with Larry Fitzgerald, as he lives just down the street from him.

As for Murray, “Kyler has been in Dallas for the majority of the time,” but Kirk said their reunion will come “real soon.”

Kirk said doing it leading into camp is ideal “so we are picking up right where we left off.”

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Ep. 268

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Ep. 267

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