We’re on the verge of double-digit weeks in NFL 2020, and as usual, the first nine weeks have produced no shortage of surprises.
The unexpected occurrences of the fantasy variety are our focus here, so this week we’re rolling with the TT&T: Surprise Statistics edition. Here are eight unanticipated figures we’ve culled from the season’s statistical tables to date, and we kick off things with …
The 6-2 Baltimore Ravens once again boast one of the league’s best records and are one of the highest-scoring teams with an average of 28.4 points per game. However, the Ravens aren’t offering much in the way of reliable fantasy production as no offensive player, outside of fringe-TE1 Mark Andrews, is currently ranked in must-start territory in standard 10-team leagues.
It starts with quarterback Lamar Jackson, fantasy’ No. 1 QB a season ago with an average of 30.9 fantasy points per contest — 4.8 points more than the next-closest quarterback. This season, he’s slipped to 23.6 points per game, which puts him 12th among QBs who have played at least five contests.
Jackson ranks second at the position with 469 rushing yards, but his aerial production has taken a marked dip as he is averaging nearly 20 fewer passing yards (189.1 from 208.4) per outing and is on pace for 24 passing touchdowns after tossing a league-leading 36 a year ago.
Even more perplexing is the rest of the backfield, which is currently an unusable, three-headed quagmire with none of the top three running backs (rookie J.K. Dobbins, Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards) averaging more than 8.1 fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) per game. That’s low-end RB4 territory folks.
As for the wide receivers, speedy sophomore Marquise Brown leads the team with 49 targets, 30 receptions and 417 receiving yards, but he’s only averaging 10.5 fantasy points per contest (tied for 49th among WRs) and has finished with 9.7 fantasy points or fewer in five of eight games.
Andrews, meanwhile, is averaging 10.7 fantasy points (tied for eighth) courtesy of his five TD grabs, which are tied for third at the position. Still, Andrews ranks 13th among tight ends in receptions with 26 and 15th in yards with 297 and has not topped 6.2 fantasy points in a game since Week 5.
With 24 touchdown passes in eight games so far, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is on pace to throw a career-high 48 TDs.
Rodgers is red hot with at least three TD passes and 283 passing yards in each of his last three games as his connection with WR Davante Adams (30 receptions for 422 yards and six TDs on 39 targets in those three contests) has gone from fire to mini-inferno.
Overall, only league-leader Russell Wilson (3.5) is averaging more TD tosses per outing than Rodgers, who is on pace to easily eclipse in season totals in his NFL MVP seasons of 2011 (45) and 2014 (38) and 2016 when he led the league with 40 TD passes.
Over the previous two seasons, Rodgers threw only 25 and 26 scoring passes and finished with TD-pass percentages (4.2 and 4.6) well below his career mark of 6.1. And with the Packers drafting a quarterback and failing to provide Rodgers with any notable pass-catching help in free agency or the draft — outside of WR Devin Funchess, who opted out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns — it’s no surprise that the soon-to-be 37-year-old Rodgers wasn’t a summer fantasy priority with an ADP of 11 among quarterbacks.
But thanks to his eye-popping TD numbers (8.6 percentage), he’s currently fourth among QBs with 29.5 fantasy points per game and is on track for his best fantasy finish since 2016 when he was the overall QB1.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has thrown for 300 yards or more in five of nine games this season. He only hit that mark four times in his first career 28 contests.
The third-year quarterback matched his career high (from Week 2 of this season) with 415 passing yards and four total touchdowns Sunday in a 44-34 shootout win over Wilson and the Seahawks.
On the season, only the Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan (2,746) and the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (2,687) have thrown for more yards than Allen’s 2,587, and he’s averaging 287.4 yards per contest — a whopping 103-yard increase over his per-game average (over 28 contests) entering the season.
Allen’s 2020 aerial numbers have taken huge leaps across the board as his completion percentage of 68.9 is way up over his last season’s 58.8, his TD-pass percentage of 6.0 is well ahead of 2019’s 4.3, and his yards-per-attempt average of 8.2 is up over last season’s average of 6.7.
And with his rushing numbers (241 yards, five TDs) holding strong, Allen is well on pace for his second straight top-10 fantasy QB finish.
Playing for the 1-7 Jacksonville Jaguars, undrafted rookie James Robinson, from FCS Illinois State, ranks fifth among running backs with an average of 18.7 fantasy points per game.
With more rushing yards (580) than Ezekiel Elliott (572) and James Conner (520), more receiving yards (225) than Clyde Edwards-Helaire (224) and Dalvin Cook (173), more total TDs (seven) than Elliott and Josh Jacobs (six apiece) and more total touches (159) than Alvin Kamara (156) and fellow rookie Jonathan Taylor (126), Robinson has arguably been the come-out-of-nowhere fantasy find of the season.
Robinson was the 55th running back drafted on average with the preseason confusion over which Jacksonville RB — remember Devine Ozigbo and Chris Thompson? — would emerge as the team’s RB1 after the release of RB Leonard Fournette and the Reserve/COVID-19 list placement of Ryquell Armstead.
But it’s been Robinson from Day 1 as he’s handled a full 85.0 percent of the Jags’ total running back touches, including 132 of 139 rushing attempts.
He’s been a consistent fantasy force as well with double-digit fantasy points in all eight of his games this season and 14.7 or more points in six of his last seven outings.
RB Kenyan Drake and WR DeAndre Hopkins, both drafted as fantasy starters, are not even the Arizona Cardinals’ leaders in yards per touch or fantasy points per touch at their respective positions.
Drake is averaging 0.3 more fantasy points per game (12.2-11.9) than fellow Cards RB Chase Edmonds but has done so on 43 more touches in one fewer contest.
Edmonds is only 55 total yards behind Drake, and even given the latter’s 4-3 edge in TDs, Edmonds has been the far more efficient back, averaging 1.6 more yards per touch (5.9-4.3) and 0.47 more fantasy points per touch (1.15-0.68).
It’s much the same with the Cards’ wide receiver contingent.
Hopkins easily paces the group in receptions (60) and receiving yards (734), but second-year wideout Christian Kirk’s 24 receptions have resulted in 400 yards and six TDs — second only on the team to QB Kyler Murray’s eight rushing scores.
Factoring in a 3-yard run for Kirk, he’s still averaging 4.4 more yards per touch (16.8-12.2) and 1.61 more fantasy points per touch (4.13-2.52) than Hopkins.
Simply due to volume, Drake and Hopkins have been the more productive fantasy assets overall, but definitely do not undervalue or overlook the highly efficient seasons Edmonds and Kirk are enjoying on one of the league’s most potent offenses (first with 422.0 total yards per game and sixth with 29.3 points per outing).
Through nine games with the Carolina Panthers, WR Robby Anderson is only three receptions shy of his career season high of 63.
Only the Buffalo Bills’ Stefon Diggs (63) and the Los Angeles’ Chargers’ Keenan Allen (62) have caught more passes than Anderson’s 60, leaving him only three catches short of his career season high of 63 set in 2017 (16 games).
Anderson has done so this season with a 75.0 catch percentage, hauling in 60 of 80 targets. Entering the season, Anderson sported only a 54.2 career catch percentage and never caught more than 55.3 percent of his targets in four previous seasons with the New York Jets.
Anderson is simply being utilized on a larger route tree than he was as a deep-threat specialists with the Jets, and is averaging 2.3 fewer yards per reception (12.5-14.8) as a result. Anderson, though, has been much more efficient this season, averaging 1.4 more yards per target (9.4-8.0) than he did in his four previous campaigns.
However, Anderson has fallen off his career pace in TD receptions with only one so far in nine games. He averaged five per season in his four years in New York, with a total of 18 over his final three campaigns.
That’s the main reason why Anderson — a wideout who ranks third in both receptions and receiving yards (751) — ranks 18th overall at the position with an average of 15.7 fantasy points per game.
Diggs has 33.8 more fantasy points than fellow wideout and former Minnesota Vikings teammate Adam Thielen so far this season, despite catching four fewer TD passes.
Diggs is soaring in his new Buffalo home, leading the league in targets (91), receptions (63) and receiving yards (813) through Week 9.
Thielen, meanwhile, ranks 24th in the league in targets (58) and receptions (37) and 27th in receiving yards (480).
Thielen, though, has played one fewer game with eight and is averaging only 1.9 fewer fantasy points per contest (16.1-18.0) than Diggs, thanks to his seven scoring grabs, which, as aforementioned, is four more than Diggs has and is tied for fourth overall among pass catchers.
In summary, it’s a stark example of how switching locales can benefit a player as Diggs now plays on a Bills team that has attempted the league’s seventh-most passes (320 or 35.6 per game) while Thielen remains with the run-heavy Vikings who have attempted the league’s fewest passes (209 or 26.1 per contest).
In their four previous seasons together with the Vikings, the two wideouts’ numbers were nearly identical across the board with Diggs totaling 872.9 fantasy points on 450 targets and 339 touches in 57 games and Thielen compiling 862.6 points on 435 targets and 316 touches in 58 contests.
At age 33 and playing on his fourth team in seven seasons, Chicago Bears tight end Jimmy Graham is tied for third among tight ends with five TD receptions.
That puts Graham on pace for nine scoring grabs after he finished with more than six TDs once in his previous six seasons.
In his previous two seasons in Green Bay, Graham hauled in five TD passes total and finished as the 12th and 21st-ranked fantasy tight end, respectively, in terms of total PPR fantasy points.
Currently, he’s the TE11 with an average of 10.6 fantasy points per contest, despite ranking 14th with 302 receiving yards.
Overall, though, only three tight ends — Travis Kelce (80), Darren Waller (72) and Evan Engram (64) — have more targets than Graham’s 55 and only five at the position have more receptions than Graham’s 35.
That can’t be overlooked at a fantasy position of ongoing scarcity.
