Who are the experts taking in Chargers vs. Dolphins?

Find out who are experts are picking between the Chargers and Dolphins.

The Los Angeles Chargers are 3-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 of the 2023 regular season. The over/under is 51.0 points, per BetMGM Sportsbook.

That means oddsmakers are taking bets on whether the two teams will combine to score more than or fewer than 51 points.

My score prediction for the game is a 27-14 win for the Bolts, with a combined total of 41 points. So if I were putting money behind my prediction, I’d bet the under.

As for game picks, analysts are leaning toward Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins in this one.

Expert Pick
Nate Davis (USA Today) Chargers
Jarrett Bell (USA Today) Dolphins
Mike Clay (ESPN) Dolphins
Matt Bowen (ESPN) Chargers
Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) Chargers
Bill Bender (Sporting News) Dolphins
NFL.com Staff Dolphins
Bleacher Report Dolphins

Sunday’s game will begin at 1:25 p.m. PT and will be televised on CBS.

Chargers’ causes for concern vs. Dolphins

Reasons why the Dolphins could beat the Chargers in Week 1.

The Chargers open their season on Sunday with a showdown between Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa, two of the top three quarterbacks from the 2020 NFL draft.

While Herbert got the better of Tagovailoa’s Dolphins last season, there are reasons to be concerned Miami fires back this weekend.

Who wins Week 1 game between Chargers and Dolphins?

Vote for who you believe wins the Week 1 matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins.

The Chargers are set to face the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon to open up the 2023 regular season.

After the massive collapse to the Jaguars in the wild card round, Los Angeles is poised to bounce back. To improve the offense, they hired Kellen Moore and selected Quentin Johnston in the first round to bring an explosive element to the unit.

The Bolts were hampered by injuries in 2022, with the defensive side of the ball declining after the losses of J.C. Jackson, Joey Bosa and Austin Johnson. Having them back in the fold should help the group get on the right track.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, went 9-8 and came up short in their playoff appearance to the Bills. Tua Tagovailoa leads the high-powered offense after finishing with 3,548 yards and 25 touchdowns, which was primarily attributed to the dynamic receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Miami will have one of the best defensive minds calling the shots on that side of the ball in Vic Fangio, who was hired in January. They also added star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey will not play in this game as he is on the injured reserve list, but the Dolphins still have plenty of talent on defense.

These two teams met last season, with the Chargers coming away victorious as Brandon Staley constructed the perfect game plan to slow down Mike McDaniel’s offense, while Herbert completed a career-high 39 passes on 51 attempts for 367 yards and a touchdown.

Will the Chargers start the season 1-0 or will the Dolphins get their revenge?

Place your vote below.

[crowdsignal poll=12733104]

Chargers’ reasons for optimism vs. Dolphins

Here’s why Chargers fans should be optimistic about starting the season with a 1-0 start.

The Chargers open their regular season at long last on Sunday with a home game against the Dolphins, another of the AFC’s playoff contenders.

Here’s why Bolt fans should be optimistic about a 1-0 start.

Wednesday’s injury report for Chargers ahead of matchup vs. Dolphins

The Chargers only had two players on the first injury report.

The Chargers had their first practice before Sunday’s matchup with the Dolphins on Wednesday.

Here’s a look at the team’s injury report:

Player Injury Wednesday Thursday Friday Game Status
LB Daiyan Henley Hamstring DNP
EDGE Chris Rumph II Hamstring LP

DNP: Did not practice; LP: Limited participation; FP: Full participation

Henley has been nursing a hamstring injury he sustained in the preseason finale against the 49ers.

The biggest takeaway from the injury report is that cornerback J.C. Jackson is not on it, indicating that he is fully recovered from his patellar tendon injury that ended his 2022 season.

“I’m not putting any limit on my knee. I’m ready,” Jackson said.

Having Jackson back on the field will be huge for a Chargers defense that hopes he can return to his All-Pro form when he was with the Patriots.

Key things to know about Chargers’ Week 1 opponent: Dolphins

Here are some important things to know about the Dolphins ahead of the Week 1 matchup with the Chargers.

The Chargers will open up the 2023 regular season at SoFi Stadium against the Dolphins on Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1:25 p.m. PT.

To get you prepped for the Week 1 bout, here are five key things to know about Los Angeles’ opponent ahead of the matchup.

The man under center

Tua Tagovailoa led all quarterbacks last season in several categories, including passer rating, yards per passing attempt and passing touchdown percentage, despite sustaining two concussions. To help avoid the injury scares going forward, Tagovailoa changed his diet and got into a strength training program, adding 10 pounds. Additionally, he took jiu-jitsu classes on a weekly basis to avoid harmful falls on the field.

Dynamic duo

The Dolphins have two of the NFL’s most prolific wide receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. In 2022, Hill caught a career-high 119 passes for a career-high 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns. He set an NFL record for most receiving yards recorded by a player in his first season with a new team. Conversely, Waddle led Miami last season with eight receiving touchdowns and an average of 18.1 yards per catch.

New defensive mastermind

The Dolphins’ biggest splash of the offseason was hiring defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio succeeded Josh Boyer, who was fired after three seasons as Miami’s DC. Before taking the job, Fangio was recently the head coach of the Broncos (2019-21). During his three seasons, Denver had one of the top defensive units. Before being a head coach, Fangio oversaw the defenses of the Panthers (1995-98), Colts (1999-2001), Texans (2002-05), 49ers (2011-14) and the Bears (2015-18). Brandon Staley is a disciple of Fangio and his system, having spent time with him in Chicago and Denver.

Prolific pass rushers

Fangio will have a handful of weapons at his disposal, led by the edge defender tandem of Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. When Chubb and Phillips were on the field together in 2022, the team had a 40% pressure rate against opposing quarterbacks. Chubb only finished with 2.5 sacks, which is lower than what he has compiled in previous seasons, but he dealt with a couple of injuries. On the other hand, Phillips totaled seven sacks and finished in the top ten of all edge defenders in pressures with 70.

Look out for…

Jevon Holland, a third-year safety from Oregon. Holland, a playmaker on the backend, has 165 tackles, four interceptions, four sacks and 17 passes defensed across his first two seasons. Given Holland’s versatility to play safety, corner and nickel, Fangio will use him in a lot of different roles in his two-high safety look.

NFL Week 1 odds: Chargers open as slight favorites over the Dolphins

The Chargers open as slight favorites for their Week 1 matchup against the Dolphins following the NFL’s schedule release.

The Chargers are out to prove that they’re better than their first-round playoff exit last season, and will open as slight favorites over the Dolphins in Week 1 of their 2023 campaign following the release of the team’s schedule.

DraftKings Sportsbook has Los Angeles as a 2.5-point favorite, which indicates that they expect the game to be fairly close between the rising AFC powerhouses.

Led by Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the newest addition, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the Dolphins won’t be an easy out for the Chargers and are expected to compete with the Bills for the AFC East crown in 2023.

Though it is too early to tell what either team’s 53-man roster might look like in early September, this matchup is set to be one of the more intriguing games on the schedule for Week 1.

The last time the two teams faced off this past season, the Chargers won in a close affair, 23-17.

Where Chargers stand in playoff picture after Week 15

Looking at the AFC Playoff Picture after Week 15.

The Chargers improved to 8-6 after defeating the Titans on Sunday.

After defeating the Texans, the Chiefs clinched the AFC West for the seventh-straight season.

Here’s a look at the playoff picture after Week 15:

  • X –:Clinched Playoff Berth
  • Z –:Clinched Division

1. X–Bills (11-3)

2. Z–Chiefs (11-3)

3. Bengals (10-4)

4. Titans (7-7)

5. Ravens (9-5)

6. Chargers (8-6)

Chances of making the playoffs: 83%

Next opponent: @ Colts

7. Dolphins (8-6)

Chances of making the playoffs: 72%

Next opponent: vs. Packers

8. Patriots (7-7)

Chances of making the playoffs: 19%

Next opponent: vs. Bengals

9. Jets (7-7)

Chances of making the playoffs: 20%

Next opponent: vs. Jaguars

10. Jaguars (6-8)

Chances of making the playoffs: 44%

Next opponent: @ Jets

AFC playoff matchups if the season ended today:

  • No. 2 Chiefs vs. No. 7 Dolphins
  • No. 3 Bengals vs. No. 6 Chargers
  • No. 4 Titans vs. No. 5 Ravens

Chargers film room: Michael Davis shines in victory over Dolphins

Michael Davis was a key piece in slowing down the Dolphins’ passing attack.

Michael Davis wasn’t even supposed to be on the field this much this season.

After a down 2021, the Chargers signed J.C. Jackson, a seemingly obvious replacement for Davis, given second-year corner Asante Samuel Jr.’s progress on the opposite side. Like Davis, Jackson is a corner who excels playing press, but the former Patriot is also a ballhawk. Once Davis officially lost his starting gig to Samuel in the preseason, it seemed like he’d be a clear-cut candidate to open the 2023 offseason.

Then, Jackson ruptured his patellar tendon. 43, you’re back up.

Davis came out swinging from the jump with a series of solid to good games, but his performance against Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins was his best yet. It shouldn’t be a surprise if you’re familiar with his game: Davis has always been the Hill shadow dating back to the speedster’s time in Kansas City.

Let’s head to the film to see what made Davis successful on Sunday.

Right away, the Chargers’ defense came out playing fired up. The play before the above was a pass deflection from Derwin James’ replacement Alohi Gilman on a deep shot targeting Hill. Tua Tagovailoa went back to Tyreek on second down, trusting him to beat Davis on an intermediate crossing route. Instead, Davis stayed in phase all the way through and didn’t let the former Chief get any space, sticking his arm in for the PBU to force a third down and keep the energy going.

You’ll notice a theme as this film room goes along: Davis played Tyreek Hill about as physically as you legally can. On this slant in the shadow of Miami’s goal line, the corner stays patient as Hill makes his release, already a critical factor in limiting football’s fastest player. Feet lie, hips don’t. Davis does a great job staying at home as Hill tries to sell an outside route before breaking back in. From there, it’s about staying connected, which Davis can do without garnering a flag before logging another pass breakup.

This play was so deflating for so many reasons. It was the first time Davis was “beat” all game; the first time Hill got free all game save for the fumblerooski touchdown in the first half. Watching the replay and wide zone angle above, it’s clear Davis has a read on this route before he trips on Hill’s feet, trying to track the ball in the air. Before that, however, Davis again has Hill locked down. Tagovailoa is only throwing this ball, in my opinion, because it’s one-on-one with Hill, but his receiver is not open on this play. It was just bad luck from Davis, and for a while, it felt like the latest stroke of bad luck for a Chargers team that has been stricken with it all season.

Cut ahead to the fourth quarter after a slowing offense in the third quarter put pressure on Davis and the defense to make plays to keep the Dolphins from storming back. Davis’ man isn’t part of the play here because of Tagovailoa’s progressions, but sometimes your coverage, when nobody is looking, is just as crucial as when all eyes are on you. You can see the same things that crop up all over this game film on this play: Davis allowing zero space to his man, making sure that the Dolphins know that he’s not to be trifled with, especially in crunch time.

This time, Davis’ corner route is the primary read for Tagovailoa, who quickly realizes that despite almost bumping into Drue Tranquill, Davis has the corner route from Trent Sherfield locked up. Tagovailoa has to check the ball down and live to see another play. Again, Davis can stay ideally in phase with his receiver, even as he has to get skinny to avoid a natural collision with Tranquill. Again, Davis stays connected without drawing a flag to get a read on where Sherfield’s next break is coming. And again, it’s blanket coverage.

Davis benefited tremendously from a Chargers game plan that sought to get after Miami’s speedy receivers. LA played more press coverage than they have all season on Sunday, and on pretty much every play included here, you can see that what that meant was that Davis played press while the rest of the secondary played off the line. That’s when Davis is at his best; he always has been. When LA backed off to prevent a big play in the fourth quarter, Davis gave up two catches to receivers running short routes he had to break on. When he was eye to eye with his man on the line, he allowed only the touchdown to Hill, based on my viewing of the game.

So, where does LA go from here? This is Davis’ best performance of what’s been a stellar season after 2021 was a massive letdown. His cap hit next season is $9.4 million, a steep price to pay for a CB3 once Jackson returns from injury. Samuel has continued to develop and his lower price tag and higher upside will entice Chargers brass. That said, you can’t write Davis off as a cap casualty any longer; he’s played too well for that to be a realistic option. Jackson will likely miss part of the early season as he recovers, and even when he does, bringing in Davis alongside him to run some real aggressive press looks is a possibility for this defense.

Either way, Davis has redeemed himself this season. Sunday was merely the coup de grace.

Where Chargers stand in playoff picture after Week 14

Looking at the AFC Playoff Picture after Week 14.

The Chargers improved to 7-6 after defeating the Dolphins on Sunday night.

After the win, how does Los Angeles stack up with the other teams in the AFC West?

Here’s a look at the division standings entering Week 15:

1. Chiefs (10-3)

2. Chargers (7-6)

3. Raiders (5-8)

4. Broncos (3-10)

And, a look at the playoff picture:

1. Bills (10-3)

2. Chiefs (10-3)

3. Ravens (9-4)

4. Titans (7-6)

5. Bengals (9-4)

6. Dolphins (8-5)

7. Patriots (7-6)

Chances of making the playoffs: 40%

Next opponent: at Raiders

8. Chargers (7-6)

Chances of making the playoffs: 55%

Next opponent: vs Titans

9. Jets (7-6)

Chances of making the playoffs: 34%

Next opponent: vs Lions

10. Jaguars (5-8)

Chances of making the playoffs: 14%

Next opponent: vs Cowboys

The Patriots have the seventh seed due to the conference record tiebreaker over the Chargers. The Jets are also 7-6, but New England has the head-to-head and division record tiebreaker over New York

AFC playoff matchups if the season ended today:

  • No. 2 Chiefs vs. No. 7 Patriots
  • No. 3 Ravens vs. No. 6 Dolphins
  • No. 4 Titans vs. No. 5 Bengals