Tag: C.J. Stroud fantasy football

Breaking down Houston Texans WRs for fantasy football usage

Can this deep receiving corps live up to its potential in fantasy?

Probably the most unexpected success story of 2023 was the meteoric rise of the Houston Texans, which went from winning three games in 2022 to going 10-7 and capturing the AFC South banner. The biggest factor in the rapid turnaround was the arrival of quarterback C.J. Stroud, who would win NFL Rookie of the Year behind a stat line that included 4,108 yards passing and 23 touchdowns against just five interceptions.

What made that performance even more impressive was the lack of established talent on the outside with wide receivers Nico Collins, Noah Brown and Robert Woods atop the depth chart heading into last season. Collins was the breakout star, and he also was the only player on the team to top 750 yards. Then-rookie WR Tank Dell also looked like a legit NFL player, and he almost certainly would’ve broken the 1,000-yard mark as well had he not suffered a leg injury in early December.

Even with two young studs coming back, the Texans made a move to bring in Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills, giving them an established frontline receiver to pair with Collins and Dell. Between those three and tight end Dalton Schultz, Stroud has a deep collection of options. There’s only one football, though, so can the second-year signal caller keep everyone fed? And what does it all mean for fantasy owners? Let’s dive in.

NFL preseason Week 1 fantasy football recap

Reviewing all of the notable fantasy football performances from Week 1 exhibition play.

While NFL preseason stats ultimately don’t matter in the quest for a fantasy football championship, that’s not to say it those numbers are entirely useless to track. Exhibition action gives us a glimpse into unearthed gems and allows gamers to recalibrate late-round flier rankings. After all, just getting an opportunity to showcase one’s talent can be the difference in making a roster or not, which sometimes is enough to create an inroad for a chance during the regular season.

With that established, here’s a spin around the noteworthy performances — good and otherwise — over the first week of the preseason. Since the NFL splits the games up over several days, be sure to check back multiple times for updates.

Can the Houston Texans’ QB situation produce any fantasy value?

Will C.J. Stroud start Week 1? If so, what kind of fantasy value does he offer?

The Houston Texans are once again looking to the future at quarterback after selecting Ohio State product C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

However, even though Stroud is fully expected to sit atop the depth chart, Houston has yet to name the rookie signal-caller its starter, leaving the door open for veteran Davis Mills to retain the job.

After showing promise during his rookie season, Mills struggled mightily in 2022, throwing five more picks, or one every 32 attempts (seven fewer), and posting a QB rating that was 10 points lower as compared to his rookie season, ultimately finishing as QB21.

While he should certainly shoulder a lot of the blame for that showing, Mills also dealt with a lackluster receiving corps that was short on options, partly due to injuries.

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The real upside in Houston’s quarterbacks room comes from Stroud, who is an unknown in terms of how he’ll pan out but does possess an intriguing skill set for fantasy football managers. Stroud didn’t do much running in college, instead opting to operate from the pocket. He doesn’t have elite wheels, though Stroud is functionally mobile and may utilize it more in the pros while adjusting to the speed of the game.

We simply can’t know for sure if Stroud will indeed use that aspect of his skill set more, nor do we know if offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will design runs for his young quarterback to make things easier. Thus, you’re really relying on a rookie to do enough through the air to be a fantasy asset, which is a risky proposition.

Another big question mark for both quarterbacks is the receivers room, a group that doesn’t spark any excitement. Veteran Robert Woods was added in free agency, but he’s 31 and showed major signs of decline in 2022 with the Tennessee Titans, even by the standards of a guy coming off a torn ACL.

John Metchie is not technically a new addition since he was drafted last year, but he didn’t play a single game because of a battle with leukemia, making him a total unknown.

Then there’s Nico Collins, who many thought was poised for a breakout year before he disappointed. Collins also was unable to stay healthy, leading to even more concerns about him.

His best target arguably is tight end Dalton Schultz, which means we should see a great deal of dink-and-dunk passing as the offseason acquisition isn’t much of a big-play weapon.

If there are positives to point toward, it’s that Texans signal-callers will have a solid offensive line, with the Texans bringing back a group that finished with the 13th-fewest sacks allowed last season. The running game is competent and should help take some pressure off the winner of this quarterback competition.

Fantasy football takeaway

The bottom line is this: No matter who wins the starting job, fantasy owners should not be depending on either Texans quarterback to be their No. 1 option. It’s not a stretch to also extend that sentiment to the QB2 slot.

If we were to pick one to emerge as a fantasy asset in 2023, it would easily be Stroud. But, again, that will greatly depend upon how often he uses his legs. Until we see it, or he proves to be a high-volume, high-production passer with a suspect receiving corps, he’s no more than a desperation waiver option.

Searching for fantasy football value among Houston’s receivers

Are there any diamonds in the rough to be uncovered in Houston’s WR corps?

Not much went right for the Houston Texans in 2022, and that included their passing offense. With quarterback Davis Mills stumbling through an unremarkable sophomore campaign, the Texans finished 31st in total offense and 25th in passing with 196.7 yards per game through the air. It should come as no surprise that their leading receiver finished with 699 yards, which ranked 53rd in the NFL.

While that certainly wasn’t impressive, it’s worth noting the wideout who accumulated those 699 yards was Brandin Cooks, who was traded to the Dallas Cowboys during the offseason, removing the one proven upper-tier target on the club. To help soften the blow, Houston signed a pair of veterans in receivers Robert Woods and Noah Brown. It then spent a couple of draft picks on WRs Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson. They’ll also be counting on the return of WR John Metchie III, who missed his entire rookie season after being diagnosed with leukemia.

Of course, the biggest addition might be that of QB C.J. Stroud, who was selected second overall. The Ohio State product is considered a polished commodity coming out of college, and the hope is that he can hit the ground running. Let’s see what all that means for fantasy owners looking for some value at the receiver position in Houston.

2023 fantasy football rookie dynasty/keeper rankings

Which rookies have the most long-term fantasy football value?

Looking for fantasy football rookie rankings for your dynasty or partial-keeper league? We have you covered.

Of course, injuries and radical personnel changes cannot be forecasted with much certainty. Variations in league settings and scoring formats notwithstanding, here are snapshot rankings depicting how the top rookies stack up for the long haul.

Dynasty fantasy football rankings by position

2023 NFL Draft: Day 1 fantasy football recap

Live blogging the impact of each fantasy-relevant pick from Round 1.

The 2023 NFL Draft is finally upon us, and prospects are now rookies with NFL cities to call home. Follow along for real-time analysis of the opening round’s impact on fantasy football plans for 2023.

Fantasy draft season may not be close to hitting its crescendo, but hardcore gamers have been selecting players prior to the conclusion of the collegiate bowl season. It’s time to let the real fun begin!

Also see: Day 2 | Day 3

Round 1 fantasy football reaction

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

Where will one of the top quarterback prospects be drafted?

The California native parlayed a strong high school career into being a top-50 recruit, so it’s no surprise Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud wound up with a marquee program. He redshirted as a true freshman behind Justin Fields before unleashing a fantastic showing during his first year as a starter in 2021.

Stroud was rewarded with being named the Big Ten Quarterback, Freshman, and Offensive Player of the Year as well as a Heisman Trophy finalist. Despite losing wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave to the NFL prior to the 2022 season, and seeing his presumed top target, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, held to only three contests because of injury, Stroud was once again a Heisman finalist after finishing second in FBS touchdown strikes.

Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 214 pounds
40 time: 4.50 seconds

There’s a lot to like about his game heading into the NFL, and it will be surprising if he falls past No. 2 overall. The Carolina Panthers hold the top spot, and while most prognosticators seem to be leaning toward Stroud as the pick, ESPN’s Chris Mortensen recently said the Panthers are locked in on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. Either way, with three of the first four teams atop the board in dire need of a franchise passer, Stroud won’t have to wait long to hear his name called on draft day.

Table: C.J. Stroud stats (2020-22)

Year School Class G Passing Rushing
Cmp Att Pct Yds AY/A TD Int Att Yds TD
*2020 Ohio State Fr 1 0 0 — 0 — 0 0 1 48 1
*2021 Ohio State rFr 12 317 441 71.9 4,435 11.4 44 6 32 -20 0
*2022 Ohio State rSo 13 258 389 66.3 3,688 10.9 41 6 47 108 0

*includes postseason/bowl games (stats from Sports Reference)

Pros

  • The most consistently accurate quarterback of the class and can fit passes into tight windows on all three levels of the route tree — his ability to control trajectory is simply impressive
  • At his best throwing slants and posts — puts the ball on the money and gives the receiver a chance to house it in stride
  • Mobile within the pocket and always keeps his feet moving as he’s scanning the field
  • Stood out against premier competition at the highest level
  • Natural feel for the game — senses pressure, finds open lanes, anticipates receivers uncovering, rises to the occasion
  • Squares up properly when flushed out of the pocket
  • More than enough arm strength to attack anywhere on the field and also has the desire to do so with his talents
  • Surveys the field well enough to get through several reads in a timely manner
  • Throws one of the most catchable balls, rarely drilling one too hot in the flats or forcing a breaking receiver to adjust his route
  • Despite being asked to do a lot in 2022, he had the wherewithal to dial it back to play within the confines of the situation when needed
  • Played through a separated shoulder in 2021
  • Unafraid of taking a shot from a defender barreling down on him

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Cons

  • Occasionally gets locked onto his top read, which was easy to understand in 2021 given his receiver. Can be late to reach the correct throw because of this
  • Offers no threat as a runner in the open field
  • Could use a few tweaks from pro coaches to maximize leg drive
  • Presnap protection reads are a work-in-progress

Fantasy football outlook

Personally, I’ll be shocked if Carolina doesn’t choose Stroud. He fits the prototypical mold of what head coach Frank Reich loves in a quarterback. The Panthers have Andy Dalton under contract to serve as a mentor and/or even start the first few games if Reich feels the former Buckeye isn’t quite ready yet.

If Stroud winds up in Houston, expect him to immediately replace Davis Mills without hesitation. Personnel-wise, it’s mostly a coin flip as to which team has more targets. Carolina sports a slightly better veteran presence in its receiving corps for stronger immediate results, though Houston offers a few pieces with whom Stroud can grow together. To-may-toe, to-tmaht-toe.

Carolina didn’t trade up only to trade out, so let’s just assume they prefer Young and Houston somehow wants to go in a different direction, there’s basically no chance Indianapolis will pass on Stroud at No. 4. In fact, another team could try to trade into No. 3 (Arizona) to secure his services.

Year 1 fantasy football returns will be minimal, at best, regardless of where he plays. Generally, rookie quarterbacks without the wheels of someone like Fields or Lamar Jackson struggle to make any kind of serious impact in fantasy. You’ll find a few notable exceptions, of course, but no one should enter single-year fantasy drafts with Stroud being in their 2023 plans. He has rock-solid QB1 upside in the long term and should be the first quarterback chosen in most dynasty settings.