Finally. The CBA has been ratified; the 2020 salary cap has been set. It’s time for the business business; creating the next version of the Dallas Cowboys. The club has question marks at so many levels and with a new set of coaches for the first time in its.been.84.years.gif, there are full-scale question marks about what kind of product the club can and will put on the field.
By and large, the 2019 season feels like a disappointment wrapped in a gut punch tied off with an anchor, sinking a talented group of players no longer inspired to perform for their coach. For whatever flaws Jason Garrett had, getting his team to consistently play hard was never a question until last year. Allegations abounded from fans over some players giving the 10 and forgetting the 100% part and enough outings where the club looked unprepared to compete.
Now the slate gets wiped fresh and clean.
Last season, we went to great lengths to disprove a myth that the Cowboys couldn’t sign everyone they wanted. We mapped out detailed salary cap impact projections for a three-year window.
We’re back.
Three years is the time frame teams use to gauge a club; either it’s a three-year window to compete in, or a three-year plan to reach being competitive.
In 2019, we advocated starting a three-year window. Garrett was a lame-duck coach (a decision we feel contributed to the disappointing results) and young players were either up for, or nearing the time to redo their deals.
Now in 2020, some of those deals are done and a majority of others are ready to be inked. The club has a new head coach and Mike McCarthy certainly wasn’t hired with a rebuild in mind. Dallas wants to win, and expect to in the next two years.
Beyond that, issues along the offensive line will start to come into play and there will be major decisions at that point. In addition, Dallas will have to decide how they want to allocate their 2020 and 2021 money prior to the new TV deals kicking in and the huge jumps in the salary cap.
The new CBA being in place brings a key factor to contract projections. There is no more 30% rule.
The previous CBA mandated any contract year beyond 2020 could rise no more than 30% over the prior year value. That meant backloading contracts was basically outlawed.
That’s an important precedent to change, considering how major new TV deals were in exploding the NBA’s salary structure. Similar should be expected for the NFL, which means there should be a lot of leeway in being able to sign stars to deals that compensate them should they continue to excel, but still give teams the outs the covet by not having guaranteed salaries beyond three years.
Still, that doesn’t mean everyone makes it to the Valley Beyond. Some of these dudes are getting left in Westworld, Shogunworld, Rajworld or one of the other six parks. These violent delights.
It’s So Hard To Say Goodbye To Yesterday
Several players who went from Boys II Men with Dallas, but their time with the club has reached the End of the Road.
Do Not Re-Sign
TE Jason Witten: Witten has given everything to this organization, but his presence is no longer wanted. Even if ultimately the problem was Garrett wouldn’t stand up to him and give him that sideline seat and a bottle of Ensure, watching him dominate snap counts when Blake Jarwin was out-producing him by over three yards a catch was infuriating.
WR Tavon Austin: Remember back in the offseason before 2018, when Stephen Jones said they were going to get Austin over 20 touches a game? He barely got 20 touches in two seasons. Exciting talent, never healthy.
I’m also not really considering bringing back OL Xavier Su’a-Filo, DL Michael Bennett, LB Ray-Ray Armstrong or Malcolm Smith, CB CJ Goodwin, safety Darian Thompson or DL Kerry Hyder and Christian Covington.
Likely Too Expensive
WR Amari Cooper: As of writing this, it certainly feels like Cooper is going to reach free agency and there’s now a solid chance he ends up somewhere other than Dallas. That will mean they traded their 2019 first-round pick for 25 regular season games, two postseason contests and possibly a 2021 third-round comp pick.
Was it worth it?
Not having Cooper long-term brings things back to the argument made on this site when Cooper was first drafted. If an extension doesn’t happen, they gave up too much.
Now, we will back off of that some. Because of the failed approach the club took to start 2018, they were setting themselves up to not know whether they should’ve invested in Prescott. Cooper was the bona fide No. 1 receiver that allowed them to fully evaluate Prescott, so the trade was indeed worth more than the 25 games Cooper played.
Despite how well Cooper started the 2019 season, his total body of work moves him up some from our projections that called for $15.3 million a season last February, but to around $16.5 million a year if there was going to be a long-term agreement. It’s a strong possibility, but for a player who has the road yips and — despite playing through them all so far — has a storied injury history, making him the No. 5-paid receiver is my personal ceiling.
Adjusted for 17 games (more on that when we get to Prescott), we’d put Cooper at $17.5 million per season, and he’s likely going to get substantially more than that.
Our preferred game plan this offseason was to have Prescott’s deal done, tag Cooper for 2020 and get at least one more year out of the trade. Draft a Day 1 or 2 WR in April. A possible second tag in 2021 and then definitely let him walk so that the money will be freed up to give Michael Gallup his deal in 2022.
Alas, we are not in charge.
Here’s what we think it would take to sign Cooper long-term.
Likely Amari Cooper Contract5 years, $100M, $20M AAV
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| Year | Base Salary | Prorated SB | Roster Bonus | Cap Number | Running Cash Total |
| 2020 | $5,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $25,000,000 | |
| 2021 | $15,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $19,000,000 | $40,000,000 | |
| 2022 | $16,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $56,000,000 | |
| 2023 | $21,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $77,000,000 | |
| 2024 | $23,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $100,000,000 | |
| TOTAL | $80,000,000 | $20,000,000 | |||
CB Byron Jones: This is a disappointing stanza to type, but the Cowboys have made it clear they aren’t bringing him back, so why waste a lot of ink on it? Jones is likely going to get a five-year, $80-88 million deal in free agency. The Cowboys could afford it, as we proved last season, but do not want to spend that much money on him. The team had to be talked into picking up his fifth-year option a couple seasons ago. This has been a long-time coming.
DT Maliek Collins: People think that 3-tech DTs have to be the level of Aaron Donald and consistently approach double-digit sacks to be worth their money, but Collins was extremely solid. He ranked 21st among DTs in sacks since he came into the league. He will likely price himself out of the Dallas rotation, though. He’s likely going to sign a 3 or 4-year deal averaging around $8 million per season.
S Jeff Heath: Heath reminds me of Anthony Hitchens from a couple years ago. He wasn’t anywhere as good as some fans made him out to be, but someone is going to pay him far more than he’s worth and he’ll be somewhere else. Should’ve been upgraded from a while ago. Don’t be shocked if Heath makes around $4 million a season to be someone’s starter next year.
Release These Guys
OT Cameron Fleming: The Cowboys are going to miss Tyron Smith for three games a year. Fleming has not inspired confidence in his time replacing the future Hall of Famer. He has a $4 million base salary and $500,000 roster bonus that would come off the books if released. My preference is to draft an OT in the top 4 rounds to be Smith’s eventual (four years down the road) successor and sign a player similar to the deal they gave Fleming out of New England. A quick $4.5 million more in space.
P Chris Jones: Jones hasn’t been good since he signed his expensive contract coming off his Puntisher season. Getting excited about guys doing things that aren’t really their job? Probably a bad idea. Releasing him saves another $1.4 million off the cap.
PAY CUT This Guy
DT Tyrone Crawford: Crawford missed all but two games in 2019. He seemed to finally be hitting his groove in 2018, but then got in an offseason brawl and things went downhill from there with both hips going back. Reduce is base pay from $8 million to $2.5 million and incentivize the other $5.5 million to not-likely-to-be-earned (NLTBE) bonuses so they don’t count against the cap. Maybe $4 million in active-roster bonuses and another $1.5 million in tiered performance bonuses (5 sacks, 7 sacks, 9 sacks). Saves $5 million in cap space.
Restructure This Guy (IF NECESSARY)
OG Zack Martin: Of the three highly-paid offensive lineman (La’el Collins is a steal), Martin is the only one that makes sense on a restructure. Smith’s deal is still great, but he may not make it through five more seasons and Frederick’s play wasn’t up to par with what it was before Guillaine-Barre struck his 2018 campaign. His strength will hopefully return to normal in 2020, but the team should see it first. Meanwhile Martin is one of the best in the game and has five years remaining to spread out the amortization of a restructure bonus.
Martin’s base is $11 million, turn $10 million into a restructure bonus, put $2 million on top of the next four years cap hits and save $8 million in cap space. I don’t know if Dallas will need this space, but I want to have it ear-marked in case my spending gets the best of me.
Total amount of space saved in these moves: $18.9 million.
On top of the Cowboys projected $72 million after Sunday’s cap announcement, these moves give Dallas $90.9 million of space to play with.
So let’s start signing people. Click the “next” button…
[lawrence-newsletter]
