While the NFL’s free agency period doesn’t officially start for a couple of weeks, the Green Bay Packers still haven’t begun the process of re-signing veteran right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

According to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Packers haven’t had any conversations with Bulaga or his representation about a new deal since the end of the team’s season in late January.

Bulaga, who turns 31 in March, just completed his second full contract with the Packers. He has an extensive history of major injuries, but he’s also played 30 of the last 32 regular-season games and is coming off one of his best pro seasons.

The Packers don’t have an in-house replacement for Bulaga and would create a massive hole on the offense if he isn’t re-signed. However, the team isn’t blessed with massive amounts of cap space and could be restricted financially, especially if Bulaga has a big market among tackle-needy NFL teams.

The Packers still need to extend the contract of Pro Bowl defensive lineman Kenny Clark, and standout running back Aaron Jones is about to enter a contract year in 2020.

GM Brian Gutekunst indicated before the combine that the Packers would be waiting until after the event to get into major roster-building decisions, including the contract situations of veteran free agents such as Bulaga, but the team did already re-sign kicker Mason Crosby. It’s clear the Packers prioritized bringing back Crosby and are now in wait-and-see mode with Bulaga.

In 2019, Bulaga helped shut down high-profile pass-rushers such as Khalil Mack, Danielle Hunter and Demarcus Lawrence while holding down the right tackle position for an offensive line with the highest pass-blocking win rate in the NFL.

The Packers may have a better idea of Bulaga’s market and potential price tag coming out of the combine in Indianapolis.

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The future of soon-to-be free agent right tackle Bryan Bulaga might be the most difficult among the Green Bay Packers’ group of veteran free agents to predict this offseason.

Bulaga, who turns 31 in March, plays a premium position and is coming off one of his best seasons for a team that won 14 games and got within one game of the Super Bowl, but any examination of his value must include his worrisome injury history, especially for a player over the age of 30. Teams pay for a projected future, not past production, even if the two are intertwined.

So many questions need to be answered. How aggressive will the Packers be about bringing him back? How in-demand will Bulaga be on the open market? Will his injury history scare teams away? Is Bulaga willing to take a little less money to return to Green Bay?

Based on his overall body of work, the quality of his 2019 season and other deals signed by right tackles around the NFL, Bulaga is likely worth $10 million or more per season over a two- or three-year deal. And the interest on the open market will likely be high. It’s a simple supply and demand equation; there are more NFL teams looking for quality pass-protecting offensive tackles than there are quality pass-protecting offensive tackles available. When demand is higher than supply, prices must rise – a simple Econ 101 concept that plays out every spring at offensive tackle (and other premium positions) in free agency.

Unlike a truly free market, however, the Packers will get the first crack at signing Bulaga. And it’s possible the Illinois native and Iowa grad will want to remain in Green Bay, where he began his professional life and started a family. Human factors are at play in any big decision. No player wants to give away millions of dollars, and no player really should, given the short money-making window for NFL players, but comfort and convenience are valuable, too.

GM Brian Gutekunst already said the Packers want Bulaga back. He knows the Packers have an open Super Bowl window, and keeping Bulaga would help keep his aging quarterback upright in upcoming years, but even he acknowledged how many layers of the process must still be peeled back before a decision is made.

One thing is certain: Bulaga is coming off a terrific year. He won a number of individual battles against a few of the NFL’s best pass-rushers, including Khalil Mack, Danielle Hunter and Demarcus Lawrence. Pro Football Focus graded him out as the 15th best offensive tackle in the NFL. Bulaga also avoided a major injury and played in 17 of 18 games, and although he left several games with injuries, he also started 17 games, and his only missed start was due to the flu bug that spread around the Packers locker room over the final two months of the season. He proved he can still play at a high level and stay on the field.

Spotrac compared Bulaga’s age and statistical production to other right tackles and estimated him to be worth roughly $10.1 million per year, with a contract guess of three years and $30.4 million.

Bulaga’s agent will come to the bargaining table with that information and more, and the Packers will have to determine if they’re willing to meet a certain price before the start of free agency. Russ Ball and his team will have all the information on his ability, health status and potential longevity and should be able to construct a reasonable risk-benefit ratio.

It’s possible the Packers will be willing to get close to $10 million annually over a three-year deal if the contract is structured in such a way as to give the team an out after one or two years. Or, the Packers might decide to offer something much more team-friendly in total value – say, a three-year, $25 million deal, or a two-year, $17 million deal, for example – and hope that’s enough to get a deal done, and if not, let him test the market.

One team to watch if Bulaga gets to free agency: the Los Angeles Chargers. Former Packers offensive line coach James Campen took the job in Los Angeles, and Bulaga spent his first eight NFL seasons working under the highly respected coach in Green Bay. A reunion is possible with the Chargers, who need offensive line help.

The NFL Scouting Combine will provide important pieces of information for both sides. In Indianapolis, Bulaga’s agent will get a gauge on the league’s interest in his client, and the Packers, if interested, can start working on the early stages of the negotiation process.

Bulaga’s future is complicated and clouded by many factors. In a perfect world for the Packers, he’d return on a team-friendly third deal, stay healthy and keep Aaron Rodgers protected for a few more runs at the Super Bowl. But the economics of professional football are tricky and may force the Packers into an uncomfortable place. Does Gutekunst and the Packers want to pay a premium price for a great but aging and injury-prone player, or do they want to start over at a premium position one year after getting one game from the Super Bowl? Good luck, Brian.

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T.J. Lang. Josh Sitton. Scott Wells. Aside from Chad Clifton, the Packers’ tendency is to refrain from signing offensive lineman to third contracts.

So will they break the pattern and re-sign Bryan Bulaga? The answer ultimately is general manager Brian Gutekunst’s call. For the purpose of this exercise, we’re going to make the case that they shouldn’t.

Let’s start by acknowledging the obvious: Bryan Bulaga is a really, really good football player when healthy. That qualifying statement can’t be understated, however. Bulaga injured his hip in November of the 2012 season, which led to his first stint in injured reserve. The next year, he tore his ACL in training camp, missing his first full season. Bulaga recovered the next couple seasons, earning a five-year, $33.8 million contract. In 2017, a hip injury led to another stint on the injured reserve. Among other minor injuries, Bulaga’s ability to stay on the field has been inconsistent.

Bulaga did start all 16 regular-season games this season, playing a key role in the team’s surprising success. Though he missed one playoff start at home in the NFC Divisional Round, the cause – a flu bug that had been floating around the locker room – was a benign one.

In a division where Green Bay sees Khalil Mack and Danielle Hunter twice a year, having excellent pass protectors is key. If the Packers decide to keep Bulaga, the decision is entirely defensible, but in offering the steelman argument against a new contract, we must reframe the argument on two factors – health and money.

Health concerns

When the Packers begin the 2020 season, Bulaga will be 31 years old. While 31 isn’t ancient by any stretch – Andrew Whitworth has given the Rams productive seasons deep into his late 30s – Bulaga might be an old 31 in NFL years. He played a bunch of snaps and endured some serious injuries that, over time, could place a ceiling on Bulaga’s viability as a two- or three-year solution. The tread might be dangerously thin; it’s a matter of time before the tire pops again.

The old adage is that injured players stay injured. This isn’t a slight against Bulaga but against biology. Some bodies are luckier than others and somehow stray from the extraneous wear and tear of the professional game. Add to that the unpredictable luck of not having players roll up on your knees and ankles and it’s almost a miracle players get through seasons unscathed.

Nonetheless, the Packers may receive a few more years of a very good player provided they sign him, but that only works if he’s on the field. Another early trip to the injured reserved could disrupt the offense, which leads to the next point.

Cost-benefit analysis

The Packers likely have some actuaries who deal with such risk-management, but the simple fact is that Bulaga is going to command a hefty salary. This is, most likely, his final real payday, relatively speaking.

Spotrac estimates Bulaga will sign a contract somewhere in the range of a three-year, $30 million deal. For reference, Kansas City Cheifs right tackle Mitchell Schwartz signed a three-year, $24 million deal at age 30. The probability is that Bulaga is somewhere around the $10 million range, maybe less if he’s willing to take some sort of home-town discount.

The Packers’ free agency splurge last offseason means that they have little room for error this offseason. Even after cutting Jimmy Graham and Lane Taylor to free up cap space, the Packers can conservatively expect to have about $20 million in spendable cap space once the draft class and some reserve cash for in-season acquisitions are accounted for. That doesn’t even include the impact a Kenny Clark extension could have on the 2020 cap.

$10 million for a high-quality starting right tackle in a division that features two of the league’s best pass rushers is more than reasonable. However, that assumes No. 75 is playing a majority of snaps. If injuries bubble to the surface, the cost-per-snap will rise to such a level that the effects would be untenable for the organization.

Additionally, the cap ensures all asset expenditures are zero-sum propositions. Every dollar spent on one player can’t be used on another. The Packers have clear and obvious needs at other places, specifically wide receiver and linebacker. The Packers are sure to add receiving talent in the draft, but Aaron Rodgers is notorious for requiring “trust” from his pass-catchers, a steep learning curve that can’t be assumed to be reached for a first-year player. Additionally, the Packers operated with just one main linebacker last year, but the West Coast bludgeonings suggest a need for a re-making of the defense’s off-ball interior, which means adding at least one more linebacker.  Free-agent upgrades at wide receiver, middle linebacker or tight end, an underrated need, would be much more difficult with Bulaga on the books for 2020.

Altogether, the organization needs to do the impossible: look into the future and determine whether or not their right tackle can give the team two or three more productive years sans major injury. Perhaps extensive use of veteran rest during the season, a tactic the Packers frequently utilized for their veteran players this year, may help. Still, the Packers have a lot less flexibility, and retaining Bulaga likely means Gutekunst isn’t looking for a starting tackle in the draft but more likely a developmental player. If injury strikes, the odds that another David Bakhtiari slides in as a franchise tackle drafted in the fourth round is, well, rare. For a reason.