Tag: Braves Nationals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (97-55) and Washington Nationals (68-85) begin a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Nationals Park is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 4-2

Atlanta has lost 5 of its last 6 games allowing nearly 9 runs per game over this stretch. They come to the nation’s capital for the 1st time since April 2 and will play the Nationals 7 times over the last 10 games of the season. The Braves have already clinched the N.L. East.

The Nationals have won 2 of the 1st 3 games of their 7-game homestand. Their series victory over the Chicago White Sox was their 1st at home since Aug. 20. Washington is 33-44 at Nationals Park this season.

Braves at Nationals projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Jake Irvin

Fried (7-1, 2.64 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 71 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-6 road victory at the Philadelphia Phillies on Sept. 12
  • 2023 road stats: 5-0, 1.74 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 8 ER), .219 opponent batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
  • 2023 vs. Nationals: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 7-2 road win March 30

Irvin (3-6, 4.34 ERA) will make his 24th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 118 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 6 K in a 5-3 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Friday
  • 2023 home stats: 2-4, 4.10 ERA (83 1/3 IP, 38 ER), .241 OBA in 16 starts
  • Has never faced the Braves as a starter

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Braves at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:51 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -2.5 (+105) | Nationals +2.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Braves at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Nationals 2

Moneyline

PASS.

The Braves will win this game but I’m not going to bet 2 1/2 units to win back 1. That’s just never a good bet anyway you slice it.

Run line/Against the spread

BET BRAVES -2.5 (+105).

You don’t see the -2.5 run line very often when it comes to MLB games. I don’t mind taking the extra run in this matchup.

Fried has been stellar on the road this season. And since 2021, he is 5-2 with a 4.14 ERA against the Nationals. In Atlanta’s 4 wins over Washington this season, they have won by multiple runs in 3 of them.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9 (+100).

I love that you are getting plus odds on this bet. In their 7 meetings this season, the total runs scored has been 9 or less in 6 of them.

The Nationals have also been under this total in 5 of their last 6 games.

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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals open their season’s with a Thursday matchup at Nationals Park. First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First of 13 meetings in 2023; Braves won 2022 season series 14-5 and outscored the Nationals by 49 runs in the 19 games.

The Braves were 101-61 last year, winning the NL East. Their season came to an end in the NL Divisional Series, where they lost 3-1 to the eventual NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

Washington finished 2022 with a MLB-worst 55-107 record, their worst mark since 1976 when they were still the Montreal Expos.

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Braves at Nationals projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Patrick Corbin

Fried went 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA last year. He had a 1.014 WHIP, 1.55 BB/9 and 8.26 K/9 in 185.1 IP.

  • Went 2-2 in his 4 starts in March/April games last year, posting a 3.00 ERA through 24 IP
  • In away games last year he was 6-3 in his 12 starts with a 2.55 ERA and 0.876 WHIP

Corbin went 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA last year. He had a 1.697 WHIP, 2.89 BB/9 and 7.55 K/9 in 152.2 IP.

  • Went 0-4 in his 5 March/April starts last season, clocking a 8.69 ERA in 19.2 IP
  • In home games last year he was 4-8 in his 16 starts, with a 5.17 ERA and 1.523 WHIP

Braves at Nationals odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:12 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Nationals +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -2.5 (+105) | Nationals +2.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)

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Braves at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Nationals 3

Moneyline

AVOID. 

The Braves (-250) should be able to pick up a win against the worst team in baseball last year. The line here is not as lopsided as I thought it might be but it is still too risky for this bet, the risk here is not worth the reward.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN BRAVES -2.5 (+105).

The Braves won 7 of the last 10 meetings and 5 of those 7 wins came by 2 or more runs, making this a fairly safe bet when the line was -1.5. But 2.5 is something diifferent. Still, the Braves big bats should be able to take advantage of a poor Washington bullpen that underperformed in spring training, but go lightly.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-114).

The Over is the safest bet for this game as 6 of the last 10 meetings between these teams went Over 7.5 total runs, and the Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The Over is also 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Washington.

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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (55-37) continue their series against the Washington Nationals (30-62) Saturday with the 3rd game of a 4-game set at Nationals Park. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Atlanta leads 9-2.

Atlanta has won 6 of its last 8 games, including 5 contests against the Nats over the last 8 days. They’ve pulled within 2 games of the NL East-leading New York Mets after going 20-10 over their last 30 contests. Atlanta has really taken care of business within the division with a 21-13 record.

The Nationals have lost 9 games in a row and you have to wonder if manager Dave Martinez’s seat is heating up. They’re just 7-23 over their last 30 games. OF Juan Soto, a .292 career hitter, is having a down season with a .247 average, 19 homers and 42 RBI. It’s no coincidence he’s on pace for 140 walks with little protection around him in the lineup.

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Braves at Nationals projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Paolo Espino

Fried (9-3, 2.56 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 112 1/3 IP.

  • Has struggled with a 4.90 ERA in 2 starts against the Nationals this season
  • Is a road warrior with a 2.27 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 6 road starts vs. a 2.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 12 home starts.
  • Current Nats are hitting .252 in 183 plate appearances off him.

Espino (0-2, 3.42 ERA) makes his 7th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 52 2/3 IP.

  • Has a 6.43 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 2 appearances (1 start) against the Braves this season
  • A little better at home with a 3.28 ERA vs. a 3.54 ERA on the road.

Braves at Nationals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -2.5 (+102) | Nationals +2.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Braves at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Nationals 3

Money line

Atlanta is too expensive on the ML, but they are just in range for the first half. Fried’s struggles against Washington this year are a little worrisome, especially in the second-to-last game before the All-Star break. So stick to a HALF UNIT on the BRAVES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-155).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Nats really haven’t been blown out that often despite how often they lose. Four of their last 9 losses have been by 1 run. They’re 8-15 in 1-run games. As mentioned, Fried has struggled against Washington, so NATIONALS +2.5 (-125) is a solid wager at home.

Over/Under

The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these sides in Washington. However, the Under has cashed in the last 4 for Washington against a left-handed pitcher. The Under has cashed in Fried’s last 5 starts with a total between 7 and 8.5. The Braves, for as good of an offense as they are, are 2-8 O/U the last 10 games. This feels like an UNDER 8.5 (+105).

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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (57-80) meet the Atlanta Braves (72-64) Tuesday to start a three-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Braves lead 12-4.

RHP Paolo Espino is Washington’s projected starter. Espino is 4-4 with a 4.08 ERA (86 IP, 39 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 14 starts and 16 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Washington’s 7-6 home loss to the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • Espino lost to Atlanta Aug. 15, 6-5, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 3 K. He has a 5.00 ERA (9 IP, 5 ER) in one start and four bullpen outings against the Braves this season with 8 H, 3 HR allowed, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster (38 PA): 8.69 FIP with a .257 batting average (BA), .391 wOBA, .657 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.1 K% and 87.6 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Max Fried makes his 24th start for the Braves. Fried is 11-7 with a 3.51 ERA (130 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 9 K in Atlanta’s 4-3 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday.
  • Fried is 3-1 this season against Washington with a 4.76 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.54 WHIP and 5.6 K/BB in five starts.
  • vs. Nationals on the current roster (68 PA): 1.61 FIP with a .258  BA, .267 wOBA, .259 xSLG, 26.5 K% and 80.0 mph EV.

Nationals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Braves -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-103) | Braves -1.5 (-117)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Braves 9, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

PASS because Atlanta’s likelihood of winning this game is accurately priced with the Braves (-260) number.

This money line is too expensive to add as a parlay leg even though I cannot make a pro-Washington argument in this spot. The only case I can make for the Nationals (+205) is their lineup has impressive advanced hitting numbers against left-handed pitching and Washington has chased Fried early in two outings already.

However, the Nationals are just 16-26 overall vs. lefty starters and Fried has been dialed in lately so PASS on the money line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

GIMME the BRAVES -1.5 (-117) for 1 unit because these teams are headed in opposite directions, Fried has been lights out following the All-Star Game and both sides of the betting market have steamed Atlanta’s price up.

The Braves are peaking as fall approaches while the Nationals were trade deadline sellers. Atlanta’s recent losses came at the Colorado Rockies (tough place to play), at the Los Angeles Dodgers and against the San Francisco Giants. Whereas Washington is just 9-24 since the start of August.

Furthermore, Fried is 5-2 in the second half of the season with a 2.02 ERA (4.71 first-half ERA), 0.91 WHIP (1.39 first-half WHIP) and 5.9 K/BB (2.9 first-half K/BB).

Both the “pros” and “Joes” are backing the Braves -1.5 (-117), which has caused oddsmakers to push Atlanta’s run line price up from -106 on the opening line to the current number according to Pregame.com.

BRAVES -1.5 (-117) is the best bet in this contest due to Atlanta’s sky-high money line price.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” OVER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because Atlanta is 32-19-4 O/U as a home favorite and both sides are barreling into the Over hence it being more expensive.

Since I like the Braves to handle the Nationals easily in this spot, we could see some of Atlanta’s less effective relievers against a Washington lineup that still has pop and could send this game Over in the late innings.

However, my favorite play remains Atlanta’s run line.

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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (59-56) have played their way into a tight battle atop the NL East. They’ll open a three-game series against the Washington Nationals (50-65) Friday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Braves RHP Charlie Morton (10-4, 3.52 ERA) makes his 24th start of the year. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 128 IP.

  • Morton has put up a 2.47 ERA and 10.6 K/9 with just 5 homers allowed in 62 IP while dominating across his last 10 outings.
  • His control has been a little suspect in nine road starts this year (3.8 BB/9) and he’s been helped a bit by a .256 BABIP. Regardless, Morton’s 3.10 ERA away from home is outstanding.

Nationals RHP Josiah Gray (0-0, 4.00 ERA) makes his fourth start and his fifth appearance. He has recorded 9 BB and 25 K while giving up 15 H and 6 HR in 18 IP.

  • Gray was one of the big prizes the Nationals got in the blockbuster deadline deal with the Dodgers. He has already induced 15-plus swinging strikes in three of his four outings.
  • Gray has gone five frames in each of his first two starts with Washington. He has allowed 2 ER in those 10 IP along with 12 K, including 10 last time out against this same Atlanta team.

Braves at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:52 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-112) | Nationals +1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Prediction

Braves 5, Nationals 3

Money line (ML)

The Nationals are reeling, having lost nine of their last 10 games coming into Friday. Morton has been lights out lately and tossed 6 scoreless innings against Washington in his last outing.

Gray should be able to keep his team close while he’s in there but likely won’t go more than 5 innings before turning it over to a bullpen with the league’s worst xFIP and K-BB% in August.

The BRAVES (-180) should come away with the victory.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Atlanta’s last eight road wins have been by more than 1 run. They’re facing a tough pitcher today but will also get several cracks at a weak Washington bullpen, and Morton has a chance to put up zeroes again.

A small play on BRAVES -1.5 (-112) is the call.

Over/Under (O/U)

When these two pitchers squared off last week, Atlanta came out on top 3-2.

Morton completely shut down the Washington offense, continuing his run of outstanding pitching while Gray has made quite the impression with his new team and allowed just 1 run against Atlanta in last week’s meeting.

Neither offense is likely to have a big day with these two starters going and UNDER 9.5 (-135) is the strongest play in this game.

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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (13-16) play the Washington Nationals (12-13) Wednesday in Game 2 of their three-game set at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta beat Washington 6-1 Tuesday thanks to an outstanding game by RHP Huascar Ynoa both on the mound and in the batter’s box.

Ynoa pitched 7 scoreless innings and hit a 6th inning grand slam to put the game out of reach.

Season series: Braves lead 3-1.

LHP Max Fried makes his fourth start for the Braves. He is 0-1 with an 11.45 ERA (11 IP, 14 ER), 2.55 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 through 3 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 4 IP with 7 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 3 K in Atlanta’s 14-8 loss to the Miami Marlins April 13. Fried exited the loss with a right hamstring strain and this is his first start since.
  • Career vs. Nationals: 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA (25 IP, 18 ER), 1.72 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 across 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.
    • vs. Nationals on the current roster: 49 at-bats with a .388/.456/.571 slash line and 2 HR.
    • Career at Washington’s ballpark: 0-1 with a 14.21 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 3.16 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 over 3 starts.

RHP Erick Fedde gets the start for the Nationals. Fedde is 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 5 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 7 K in Washington’s 8-2 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Braves: 0-2 with a 14.06 ERA (16 IP, 25 ER), 3.00 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 across 4 starts and 1 relief appearance.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster: 45 at-bats with a .378/.517/.622 slash line and 2 HR.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Braves at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Nationals +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+120) | Nationals +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 9, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

GIMME the BRAVES (-135) for 1 unit because even though both projected starters haven’t looked good against their opponent, Fried has much better stuff than Fedde and Atlanta’s lineup is far more productive than Washington’s.

Fedde’s numbers against this Braves lineup are shockingly bad and Washington’s bullpen is a bottom-3 unit in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS despite my projected score because the payout of Braves -1.5 (+120) isn’t big enough.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (+100) alternate line for a half unit mostly based on the numbers of the starting pitchers against their respective opponent. Washington’s lineup is also top-3 in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS against left-handed pitching.

Also, the Braves and Nationals are 10-3-1 O/U in their last 14 meetings and the Over cashed in five of their past seven games in Washington.

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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals Game 1 odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (0-4) and Washington Nationals (1-0) tangle in a Wednesday doubleheader at Nationals Park. Game 1 is slated for a 12:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Max Fried draws the start for the Braves. In 2020, he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in 56 IP over 11 starts. Fried was solid in limiting hard contact in his 2021 debut; he allowed 2 ER on 6 hits in 5 IP at the Philadelphia Phillies on Opening Day.

RHP Erik Fedde is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, who are down two starters — LHP Patrick Corbin, LHP Jon Lester — due to COVID-19 protocols. Last year, Fedde went 2-4 with a 4.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 50 1/3 IP over 11 appearances. The 28-year-old righty had some control problems in a small-sample spring training.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Braves at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Nationals +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-110) |  Nationals +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 4, Nationals 3

Money line (ML)

After a COVID-related delay, Washington opened its season with a 6-5 win over Atlanta Tuesday. Wednesday’s double dip comes against a Braves club looking for its first victory of 2021.

With this pitching matchup, the Braves are the likable team in a vacuum but the -190 tag offers no value. The +155 for the Nats also misses the mark, though by a smaller margin.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Both games of the twin bill will be seven innings in accordance with MLB’s new doubleheader rule, which was first implemented last season. The price is right on the host Nationals, a team that figures to have its best foot forward against lefty pitchers.

BACK THE NATIONALS +1.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Nationals Park before the summer warm-up and on a slight breeze-in day: Consider the UNDER 6.5 if you can get plus money (+105 or better).

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