The Washington Nationals (57-80) meet the Atlanta Braves (72-64) Tuesday to start a three-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Braves lead 12-4.
RHP Paolo Espino is Washington’s projected starter. Espino is 4-4 with a 4.08 ERA (86 IP, 39 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 14 starts and 16 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in Washington’s 7-6 home loss to the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- Espino lost to Atlanta Aug. 15, 6-5, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 3 K. He has a 5.00 ERA (9 IP, 5 ER) in one start and four bullpen outings against the Braves this season with 8 H, 3 HR allowed, 2 BB and 7 K.
- vs. Braves on the current roster (38 PA): 8.69 FIP with a .257 batting average (BA), .391 wOBA, .657 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.1 K% and 87.6 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Max Fried makes his 24th start for the Braves. Fried is 11-7 with a 3.51 ERA (130 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 9 K in Atlanta’s 4-3 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday.
- Fried is 3-1 this season against Washington with a 4.76 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.54 WHIP and 5.6 K/BB in five starts.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster (68 PA): 1.61 FIP with a .258 BA, .267 wOBA, .259 xSLG, 26.5 K% and 80.0 mph EV.
Nationals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Braves -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-103) | Braves -1.5 (-117)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Braves 9, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
PASS because Atlanta’s likelihood of winning this game is accurately priced with the Braves (-260) number.
This money line is too expensive to add as a parlay leg even though I cannot make a pro-Washington argument in this spot. The only case I can make for the Nationals (+205) is their lineup has impressive advanced hitting numbers against left-handed pitching and Washington has chased Fried early in two outings already.
However, the Nationals are just 16-26 overall vs. lefty starters and Fried has been dialed in lately so PASS on the money line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME the BRAVES -1.5 (-117) for 1 unit because these teams are headed in opposite directions, Fried has been lights out following the All-Star Game and both sides of the betting market have steamed Atlanta’s price up.
The Braves are peaking as fall approaches while the Nationals were trade deadline sellers. Atlanta’s recent losses came at the Colorado Rockies (tough place to play), at the Los Angeles Dodgers and against the San Francisco Giants. Whereas Washington is just 9-24 since the start of August.
Furthermore, Fried is 5-2 in the second half of the season with a 2.02 ERA (4.71 first-half ERA), 0.91 WHIP (1.39 first-half WHIP) and 5.9 K/BB (2.9 first-half K/BB).
Both the “pros” and “Joes” are backing the Braves -1.5 (-117), which has caused oddsmakers to push Atlanta’s run line price up from -106 on the opening line to the current number according to Pregame.com.
BRAVES -1.5 (-117) is the best bet in this contest due to Atlanta’s sky-high money line price.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” OVER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because Atlanta is 32-19-4 O/U as a home favorite and both sides are barreling into the Over hence it being more expensive.
Since I like the Braves to handle the Nationals easily in this spot, we could see some of Atlanta’s less effective relievers against a Washington lineup that still has pop and could send this game Over in the late innings.
However, my favorite play remains Atlanta’s run line.
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