Tag: Braves Marlins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (38-50) host the Atlanta Braves (44-44) for the finale of their three-game series Sunday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta is trying to complete the sweep of Miami after winning Saturday, 5-4, but regardless of the series outcome the story of the weekend will be Braves All-Star OF Ronald Acuna Jr. suffering a season-ending knee injury.

Season series: Tied 6-6.

RHP Ian Anderson makes his 18th start for the Braves. Anderson is 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA (93 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 4 K in Atlanta’s 2-1 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday.
  • Anderson picked up a no-decision vs. Miami April 15 with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 6 K in Atlanta’s 7-6 loss.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 55 at-bats with a .255/.339/.327 slash line, 14/7 K/BB, 0 HR and 7 RBIs.

RHP Pablo Lopez is Miami’s projected starter. Lopez is 4-5 with a 2.94 ERA (95 IP, 31 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 across 18 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Miami’s 2-1 win vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday.
  • Lopez is 0-2 against Atlanta this season with a 14.14 ERA (7 IP, 11 ER), 3 BB and 8 K in three starts.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 153 at-bats with a .248/.308/.425 slash line, 37/11 K/BB, 6 HR and 21 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+170) | Marlins +1.5 (-210)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Braves 3, Marlins 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES (-105) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Anderson has performed much better against the Marlins than Lopez has against Atlanta.

However, since Miami has a significant edge in bullpen pitching I’m sticking with Atlanta’s First 5 Innings money line. The Marlins relievers have the best FIP in the majors and sixth-best WAR.

Also, it’s only a “lean” towards the Braves because the injury of Acuna could have a carryover effect and even if it doesn’t the fact remains that Atlanta still lost a top-5 player in the league.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because both Atlanta’s full game and First 5 Innings run lines don’t provide the value needed to take a stab at.

The Braves are 8-15 ATS as a road favorite and 17-28 ATS vs. NL East foes while the Marlins are 21-12 ATS in division games and 11-7 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

GIMME the UNDER 7 (-115) for 1 unit.  This is my favorite play in the Braves-Marlins game.

Atlanta has played to the highest rate of Unders on the road this season going 16-25-1 O/U in away games and is 19-23-3 O/U vs. NL East foes. Miami is 13-18-2 O/U in divisional games and 18-21-3 O/U at home.

In addition, the Braves have scored the fifth-fewest runs on the road and the Marlins have scored the fourth-fewest runs at home.

Also, the weather forecast is predicting 12 mph winds blowing in from centerfield so we shouldn’t expect many dingers here.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (43-44) and Miami Marlins (38-49) play the second game of a three-game set Saturday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Max Fried is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 5-5 with a 4.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 over 67 2/3 IP across 13 starts.

Fried was knocked around for six runs, seven hits and two walks with five strikeouts across five innings in a loss at Pittsburgh Monday. He has faced Miami twice this season going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and .341 opponent batting average.

LHP Trevor Rogers is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 7-5 with a 2.22 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 over 97 1/3 IP through 17 starts.

Rogers allowed two runs, six hits and no walks with eight strikeouts across five innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers Monday. He hasn’t won in four starts since June 10 against the Colorado Rockies.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Marlins -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+155) | Marlins +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Marlins 6, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

The MARLINS (-110) are a decent play in their home park as they look to level this series after a 5-0 setback to the Braves (-110) in the series opener. I don’t like the way Fried has looked in his previous two appearances against Miami, and the bats for the Fish should come alive after getting blanked in the opener.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARLINS +1.5 (-190) is a little more expensive than I’d like as I usually try to limit my plays to -180 or lower. However, I like this for a little insurance as Miami’s offensive woes lately are concerning. They have scored two or fewer runs in three of the past four.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 7 (-115) is the lean here despite the fact Miami has had a power outage lately. They should be able to get well against a pitcher they have handled well in their previous two meetings this season.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (42-44) head to South Beach Friday to start a three-game series with the NL East rival Miami Marlins (38-48) at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Marlins lead 6-4.

RHP Charlie Morton is on the mound for the Braves. Morton is 7-3 with a 3.91 ERA (92 IP, 40 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 across 17 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Atlanta’s 8-7 victory over the Marlins Sunday.
  • Morton is 0-1 against the Marlins this season with a 7.63 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.57 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB rate in three starts.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 74 at-bats with a .230/.314/.338 slash line, 28/8 K/BB, 2 HR and 15 RBIs.

RHP Zach Thompson is Miami’s projected starter. Thompson is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 over five starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 8-7 loss at the Atlanta Braves Sunday.
  • Thompson is 1-0 vs. the Braves this season with a 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 0.91 WHIP and 12.0 K/BB rate in two starts.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 42 at-bats with a .214/.233/.357 slash line, 12/1 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 6, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

BET the MARLINS (-105) for 1 unit because we are seeing “sharp” line movement in Miami’s direction, Morton got shelled in his first appearance in Miami and Thompson has been lights out in his few home starts.

Atlanta opened up as a -135 favorite but the market has steamed the Braves down 20 cents on the dollar to the current number despite them having the more experienced starter on the hill.

Part of the reason why big money is going on the Marlins is that they raked Morton for 4 earned runs on 4 hits and 4 walks in 4 innings in his first start at Miami this season.

Also, Thompson is 2-0 at home this season with a 0.82 ERA (3.46 road ERA), 0.91 WHIP (1.08 home WHIP) and an 8.5 K/BB rate at home (2.8 K/BB road rate).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Miami’s full game and First 5 Innings run lines are both out of my price range even though Atlanta has the third-lowest cover rate this season (35-51 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-105) for a quarter unit as a “contrarian play” against a market in which 80% of the money at the time of publication has been wagered on the Under (according to Pregame.com).

Moreover, Miami’s bullpen is a little overcooked while Atlanta’s bullpen is one of the lesser units in the majors. The Braves relievers are 26th in runs allowed per nine innings, 22nd in both K-BB% and SIERA and 24th in xFIP.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (28-35) host the Atlanta Braves (29-32) for the second game of their three-game set at loanDepot park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami won the first game of this series 4-3 to extend Atlanta’s losing streak to three games. SS Jazz Chisholm was the standout for the Marlins Friday, hitting 2-for-3 with two RBIs.

Season series: Marlins lead 4-1.

LHP Max Fried is on the mound for the Braves. Fried is 3-3 with a 4.63 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across 9 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2, in 6 IP with 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday.
  • Fried lost vs. the Marlins on April 13 with 4 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 2 BB and 3 K in Miami’s 14-8 victory.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 93 at-bats with a .355/.413/.656 slash line, 19/7 K/BB, 6 HR and 20 RBIs.

RHP Zach Thompson makes his second major league start for the Marlins. Thompson took a loss at Boston Monday with 3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, and 1 K in his first career start as the Red Sox won 5-3.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:59 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 6, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the MARLINS (+140) for a quarter unit because Miami +1.5 (-120) is a strong play and the Marlins have a much better pitching staff.

For instance, Miami’s bullpen is top-10 in xFIP, SIERA and WAR whereas Atlanta’s is below-average in all of those categories.

The Braves (-165) are overpriced because they are a public favorite, Fried is coming off a stellar 2020 campaign, and he had a winning quality start against the Dodgers in his last appearance.

However, besides his last start, Fried is in the midst of a disappointing 2021 and he’s gotten drilled by the Marlins throughout his young career.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the MARLINS +1.5 (-120) heavier than or instead of Miami’s money line because of the aforementioned reasons and the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing the Marlins’ run line big time.

According to Pregame.com, 90% of the money is on Miami’s run line but 55% of the bets placed are on Atlanta’s run line and typically it’s wiser to follow the money when it’s opposite of the crowd.

Furthermore, the Marlins have a winning home record, the Braves have a losing road record, and Atlanta are just 5-9 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-2.5 run line margin.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Over but the total is ticking up because the market is barreling into the Over and I don’t want to follow a crowd of people into what could be a trap bet.

Fried is having an off-year but the Braves are 3-5 O/U in his starts and you could make an argument that Thompson making his second career start is to his advantage vs. Atlanta because its lineup doesn’t have familiarity with his stuff.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (29-31) and Miami Marlins (27-35) will begin a three-game series Friday night at loanDepot Park, with first pitch coming at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 5-2 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 62 IP over 12 starts.

The Braves are 4-1 in Morton’s last five starts, a span in which he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a single outing. His last time out, he had 5 IP, allowing 2 ER, while recording 5 K and 1 BB in a 6-4 Braves win vs. the Dodgers Saturday. The Braves have scored at least four runs in four of his last five starts.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 3-5 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 79 IP over 13 starts.

Despite some strong outings by Alcantara recently, the Marlins are just 2-3 in his last five starts. His last start, he allowed 0 ER in 8 IP with 6K and 2 BB in the Marlins’ 3-1 win at Pittsburgh Sunday. In his career against the Braves, he’s 0-0 with a 2.88 ERA in four starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:31 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Braves 5, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The Braves dropped two of three to the Phillies this week, but they’re still 4-3 in their last seven games – which compares favorably to the Marlins’ 3-7 stretch in the last 10. Alcantara has been pitching well, but he hasn’t received the best run support from the Marlins.

I like the BRAVES (-130) to win outright tonight with Morton on the mound and the offense looking to bounce back from a lull in the last two games.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

In their last 10 games, the Braves have covered the spread seven times. While they’ve been excellent against the spread lately, their ATS record still sits at only 26-34 this season.

Though I’d much rather bet on the money line, I’d give a slight lean toward the BRAVES -1.5 (+135) tonight on the road.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Braves have scored the ninth-most runs per game this season, which compares favorably to the Marlins who are just 23rd. The total has only gone Over in four of the Braves’ last 10, and in six of the Marlins’ 10 most recent games.

Give me the OVER 7.5 (-110) tonight, but only make it a small wager.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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