The Atlanta Braves (42-44) head to South Beach Friday to start a three-game series with the NL East rival Miami Marlins (38-48) at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Marlins lead 6-4.
RHP Charlie Morton is on the mound for the Braves. Morton is 7-3 with a 3.91 ERA (92 IP, 40 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 across 17 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Atlanta’s 8-7 victory over the Marlins Sunday.
- Morton is 0-1 against the Marlins this season with a 7.63 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.57 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB rate in three starts.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 74 at-bats with a .230/.314/.338 slash line, 28/8 K/BB, 2 HR and 15 RBIs.
RHP Zach Thompson is Miami’s projected starter. Thompson is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 over five starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 8-7 loss at the Atlanta Braves Sunday.
- Thompson is 1-0 vs. the Braves this season with a 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 0.91 WHIP and 12.0 K/BB rate in two starts.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 42 at-bats with a .214/.233/.357 slash line, 12/1 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.
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Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Marlins 6, Braves 3
Money line (ML)
BET the MARLINS (-105) for 1 unit because we are seeing “sharp” line movement in Miami’s direction, Morton got shelled in his first appearance in Miami and Thompson has been lights out in his few home starts.
Atlanta opened up as a -135 favorite but the market has steamed the Braves down 20 cents on the dollar to the current number despite them having the more experienced starter on the hill.
Part of the reason why big money is going on the Marlins is that they raked Morton for 4 earned runs on 4 hits and 4 walks in 4 innings in his first start at Miami this season.
Also, Thompson is 2-0 at home this season with a 0.82 ERA (3.46 road ERA), 0.91 WHIP (1.08 home WHIP) and an 8.5 K/BB rate at home (2.8 K/BB road rate).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Miami’s full game and First 5 Innings run lines are both out of my price range even though Atlanta has the third-lowest cover rate this season (35-51 ATS).
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-105) for a quarter unit as a “contrarian play” against a market in which 80% of the money at the time of publication has been wagered on the Under (according to Pregame.com).
Moreover, Miami’s bullpen is a little overcooked while Atlanta’s bullpen is one of the lesser units in the majors. The Braves relievers are 26th in runs allowed per nine innings, 22nd in both K-BB% and SIERA and 24th in xFIP.
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