Tag: boogie basham

When the Buffalo Bills signed veteran edge-rusher Von Miller to a six-year, $120 million contract with $45 million contract this offseason, it was seen by the organization as perhaps the final piece of the puzzle to get the Bills to their first Super Bowl since the 1993 season — and perhaps their first league title since 1965, when their league was the American Football League. Miller had already helped the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 50 with an MVP performance, and he helped the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LVI with a game that was MVP-worthy.

But if the Bills are to win their first Super Bowl, they’ll have to do it with Miller on the bench. On Wednesday, the team announced that Miller will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL — discovered during exploratory surgery to try and clean up issues the team hoped wouldn’t lead to this result.

“Very unfortunate situation for Von, obviously, and our team,” head coach Sean McDermott said. “We care for him obviously, like we would any player. We know how much this means to him in terms of playing and being with the team. So we look forward to getting him back, obviously off the field for the rest of the season and his leadership. And we’re certainly thinking about him as he recovers here.”

In his inaugural season with the Bills, Miller was on the field for 390 snaps, and off for 292. On passing downs, he was on the field for 278 snaps, and off for 184. Miller’s snaps came about equally on first to third down, so it wasn’t as if his new team was saving him for what are generally seen as obvious passing situations — although, when the Bills’ offense is humming, every down might be an obvious passing down for an opponent.

In any event, the on-off splits don’t indicate that this defense will fall apart without Miller. There’s always more to these splits than the presence or absence of the player in question, but with Miller on the field, the Bills have allowed an overall Offensive EPA of 0.02. Without him? -0.22. Their passing EPA allowed with Miller is 0.06, and -0.19 without him. Their rushing EPA allowed is -0.06 with him, and -0.26 without him. And they’re still the fourth-best defense overall by DVOA, with or without him.

The pass-rush splits are also interesting. The Bills have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 33.6% of their dropbacks with Miller on the field, and 33.7% without him. Their sack rate is 7.3% with him, and 6.0% without, and their total opponent blown block rate was 15.6% with him, and 15.4% without.

This is not to say that Miller wasn’t a great addition to this defense when healthy. He finishes his season leading the team in sacks (eight) and total pressures (45). But this isn’t the kind of thing that should take the Bills out of the Super Bowl equation.

As McDermott also said, “We care for Von in this case and we’ll miss him. But as I said last week when he was out, it’s a time and an opportunity for other guys to step up.”

Fortunately for the Bills, that stepping-up scenario looks far more feasible than one might imagine. When you look at this defense without Miller on the field, that becomes abundantly clear.