Bills Chiefs odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Buffalo Bills (4-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) face off in a much-anticipated Week 6 matchup Sunday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Bills vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

This matchup between 2 AFC juggernauts is a rematch of one of the best postseason matchups in recent memory. The Chiefs beat the Bills in the divisional round last season 42-36, winning the game in overtime after QB Patrick Mahomes only needed 13 seconds to lead the Chiefs down the field to tie things up with a field goal in the 4th quarter.

The Chiefs have beaten the Bills in 3 of their last 4 matchups with the lone loss coming during the 2021 regular season. Kansas City is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Bills during that span, and the Over is 3-1 as well.

The Chiefs and Bills are the top teams in the AFC — no other team in the conference has 4 or more wins. They boast the league’s 2 best offenses in points per game, and the Bills boast the league’s best defense in points allowed. Both squads also suffered their only losses this season in Week 3: Kansas City lost to the Indianapolis Colts, while the Bills were beaten by the Miami Dolphins.

Also see: All Week 6 odds and lines

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Bills at Chiefs odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:18 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bills -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Chiefs +117 (bet $100 to win $117)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills -2.5 (-125) | Chiefs +2.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Bills at Chiefs key injuries

Bills

WR Jake Kumerow (ankle) out
DT Jordan Phillips (hamstring) questionable

Chiefs

S Bryan Cook (concussion) out
CB Rashad Fenton (hamstring) out
DL Tershawn Wharton (left knee) out

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Bills at Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 34, Chiefs 31

Moneyline

This matchup was anticipated so much that CBS refused to let it off its network and reach prime time. That’s understandable since this game features the 2 best teams in the AFC and 2 of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

It’s a tough matchup to predict. Both offenses are rolling, but the Chiefs defense has allowed so many more points than the Bills and struggled against Raiders QB Derek Carr in Week 5. The Chiefs also struggle to contain running quarterbacks, and QB Josh Allen is Buffalo’s best runner on offense. Not to mention the Chiefs will be missing suspended LB Willie Gay Jr., who would normally be the main player called to contain Allen’s running ability.

I’m leaning toward the BILLS (-140) to edge out the Chiefs.

Against the spread

The 2.5-point spread is tricky because this will likely be a close game that could easily be decided by 1 or 2 points. Plus, the line could jump up or down before game time. With the juice on the moneyline so close to the spread, you’re better off AVOIDING the spread and putting your bet directly on the moneyline.

Over/Under

OVER 54.5 (-105) seems like a lock, so that’s my FAVORITE PICK for this matchup. The last 3 matchups between the Chiefs and Bills have gone Over 55 points — even the regular-season game last year when the Chiefs offense was mostly dominated by Buffalo.

Even with the Bills allowing the fewest points per game in the league, the Chiefs should be able to run up the score and keep up with the Bills. Kansas City put up 41 points on the Buccaneers defense, which has allowed an average of just 10.5 points per game in its other 4 matchups. All the signs point to this being a shootout.

More NFL Week 6 odds, picks and predictions

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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs AFC Divisional Round odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The third-seeded Buffalo Bills (12-6) face the second-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (13-5) Sunday in a rematch of last season’s conference championship in the AFC Divisional Round. Kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (on CBS). Below, we look at the Bills vs. Chiefs odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The third-seeded Bills won their fifth straight game by crushing the New England Patriots 47-17 in an AFC Wild Card game as 4.5-point road underdogs. The Bills are 10-6-2 against the spread (ATS) and 9-9 Over/Under (O/U).

The Chiefs, the No. 2 seed, handled business as 11-point home favorites in their Wild Card matchup by dismantling the Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21 for their 10th win in the past 11 games. The Chiefs are 9-9 ATS and 11-7 O/U.

The Bills whooped the Chiefs 38-20 in Week 5 as 2.5-point road underdogs. Buffalo had 3.1 more yards per play than K.C., was better in the red zone and on third down and had a plus-4 in turnover margin.

Also see: All Divisional Round odds and lines

Bills at Chiefs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:04 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bills +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Chiefs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread: Bills +1.5 (-108) | Chiefs -1.5 (-112)
Over/Under: 53.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Bills at Chiefs key injuries

Bills

None

Chiefs

None

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Divisional Round Weekend

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Bills at Chiefs odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 34, Chiefs 24

Money line

I’m sticking with my preseason guns and ROLLING with the BILLS (+102) for 1.25 units.

I predicted Buffalo would meet the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI on Bet Slippin’s final NFL season preview podcast and see no reason to change my pick.

Bills QB Josh Allen is a bona fide alpha, head coach Sean McDermott is an elite tactician and has paid his playoff dues, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is perhaps the hottest head coaching candidate.

Buffalo is fantastic in high-leverage situations. The Bills have the best third-down conversion differential in the NFL and the sixth-best, red-zone scoring differential.

Buffalo is structured perfectly to go against Kansas City. The Bills have possibly the best safety tandem in the league (FS Micah Hyde and SS Jordan Poyer) and one of the best coverage linebackers in Matt Milano.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce playing well is crucial for K.C.’s offense and the Bills have the coaching and players to neutralize Kelce.

Buffalo’s defense can force Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes into being precise up-and-down the field. We’ve seen Mahomes get antsy and throw the ball into tight windows if opponents eliminate the big play.

Mahomes threw 2 interceptions and just 272 yards on 54 pass attempts in the Week 5 loss to the Bills. Mahomes’ 4.11 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt in that game was his lowest in 63 career starts.

More importantly, the Bills have higher expected points added per play, yards per play differential and pressure rate differentials than the Chiefs.

The only fat on Buffalo’s resume is it had the easiest schedule in the NFL (according to Football Outsiders) and a weird 9-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9.

The Bills stomped the Chiefs earlier this season and are playing their best football entering this game. Buffalo’s beatdown of New England in the Wild Card Round is one of the greatest games any team has ever played.

BET the BILLS (+102). But if there’s late line movement toward Kansas City and Buffalo’s spread goes north of +2.5, then I’d sprinkle on the Bills outright and hammer them plus the points.

Against the spread

PASS with a heavy “lean” toward the Bills +1.5 (-108) and I’d take Buffalo’s spread if gets to +2.5 or higher. Either way, the Bills are the right side and I like them to advance to the AFC title game.

Over/Under

PASS because my heart says both offenses play an awesome game Sunday, but my brain says this 53.5 total is too high.

Plus, a majority of the market is betting the Over, which has steamed the total up from the 52.5-point opener, but I hate following the herd in sports betting.

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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday Night Football’s Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) host the Buffalo Bills (3-1) for Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bills vs. Chiefs odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Bills have stampeded their last three opponents in the Houston Texans (40-0 in Week 4), Washington Football Team (43-21 in Week 3) and Miami Dolphins (35-0 in Week 2).

K.C. cruised past the Philadelphia Eagles 42-30 last week as a 7.5-point road favorite after back-to-back losses to the Los Angeles Chargers (30-24) and Baltimore Ravens (36-35).

The Chiefs beat the Bills twice last season: 26-17 in Week 6 as 5.5-point road favorites and 38-24 at home in the AFC Championship Game, covering as 3-point favorites.

Bills at Chiefs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bills +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Chiefs -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills +2.5 (-105) | Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Bills at Chiefs key injuries

Bills

LB Matt Milano (hamstring) questionable
RB Taiwan Jones (hamstring) questionable
DE A.J. Epenesa (foot) questionable

Chiefs

DT Chris Jones (wrist) questionable
CB Charvarius Ward (quadriceps) questionable
LB Willie Gay (toe) questionable

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Bills at Chiefs odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Chiefs 34, Bills 30

Money line

“LEAN” to the CHIEFS (-140) only because I could listen to laying the points instead, but K.C. is the right side.

By betting on the Chiefs we are backing one of the best quarterbacks and coaching staffs in the game as well as fading the public. According to Pregame.com, roughly 70% of the action was on Buffalo at the time of writing, which is making K.C. cheaper. There are a few reasons to fade the Bills as well.

First of all, Buffalo hasn’t faced a quality opponent. The Bills have played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far while the Chiefs have played the third-toughest schedule. K.C. has underperformed its lofty expectations but losing at the Ravens on primetime and against a tough divisional opponent like the Chargers isn’t embarrassing.

Also, the possible absence of Milano is a major problem for the Bills. Milano is the highest graded linebacker by Pro Football Focus and its third-highest graded linebacker in pass coverage. If Milano is sidelined or compromised then TE Travis Kelce could tear this Buffalo defense apart.

The Bills have the best DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, because of their defense. But, they’ve played three of the worst offenses in the league. Offenses quarterbacked by Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke and Davis Mills.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the CHIEFS -2.5 (-115) based on the aforementioned analysis and because K.C.’s money line isn’t much more expensive.

Over/Under

PASS on the total because I could see both offenses trying to play keep away and eat the clock. K.C. should hide its terrible defense and Buffalo probably doesn’t want to get into a shootout with the Chiefs.

Furthermore, nearly 90% of the handle is on the Over but this total hasn’t moved much from the opener. It’s not very profitable following the crowd in sports betting.

That said, for me, it’s a little too “sharp” to back the Under. PASS.

Week 5 best bets

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Underdog corner: 3 best NFL ATS picks and predictions for Week 5

Assessing the NFL betting odds and lines for Week 5, with three predictions and picks for the best ATS underdog bets to make.

After a hot start, we cooled off here in Week 4, cashing in on only one of our three weekly selections. But, hey, 9-3 after four weeks? Certainly no hanging heads here. Below, we look at the top NFL underdog ATS picks and predictions of Week 5.

Also see: All Week 5 odds and lines

NFL underdog predictions: Week 5

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 4:15 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 (-125) vs. Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have bounced back nicely from their season-opening debacle against the New Orleans Saints, by reeling off three straight wins.

The Bengals are also 3-1 and have won with a promising mix of young offensive talent, led by second-year QB Joe Burrow and rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase, along with an improved and underrated defense.

That should be more than enough to at least keep it close — and possibly even win outright — at home against a banged-up Green Bay squad which likely will be without some key offensive linemen, its best pass rusher and top cornerback.

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San Francisco 49ers +5.5 (-112) at Arizona Cardinals

QB Kyler Murray and the Cards are the league’s final unbeaten team and are coming off a huge 37-20 win over the previously undefeated Los Angeles Rams as 3.5-point road underdogs.

That, however, makes this a prime letdown spot for Arizona as it hosts an angry 49ers squad hitting the road off two straight stinging home setbacks.

Even though it likely will be rookie Trey Lance starting at QB for the Niners, they have had recent success in this NFC West series, winning three of the last four meetings.

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Buffalo Bills +2.5 (-102) at Kansas City Chiefs

K.C. is favored by less than a field goal at home Sunday night for the first time ever in a game QB Patrick Mahomes is slated to start.

That’s a giveaway right there that the wrong team might be favored in this rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game won 38-24 by the Chiefs.

Both squads once again have top-three scoring offenses with top-level QBs, but the huge difference is defense as the Bills have surrendered the fewest points (44) and total yards (867) in the league while the Chiefs rank 31st in both categories, giving up 125 points and 1,751 yards.

With the spread under 3 points, take the Bills on the money line at +120 to earn a measure of revenge.

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