This week on the show Andy and I talk about Torrey Pines, and despite mixed feelings about the golf course, it delivers every single time the PGA Tour is there. It’s uncanny.
We also dive in on Will Zalatoris and his, let’s just say less than confident, putting stroke from inside five feet.
Then we jump into our preview for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It’s always good to be back on the Monterey Peninsula, and not only is the PGA Tour back, but the amateurs are as well after a year hiatus due to COVID-19.
Our betting segment is loaded with players we’re targeting this week and hopefully, we can finally capitalize on an outright winner.
Listen, download, and subscribe to the show for free here: Apple | Spotify
Tyrrell Hatton continues to be one of the most electric players in golf.
For The Win’s Andy Nesbitt, co-host of this podcast, has a new favorite golfer: Tyrrell Hatton.
Hatton continues to show that he’s one of the most electric players in the game, and we think he might be worthy of an independent video stream every time he tees it up.
In this podcast, we recap the American Express and discuss the viral video of Jon Rahm explaining his frustration with the tournament setup.
This week is the Farmers Insurance Open and we discuss the field, course, key statistics, and our favorite bets for the week including the guy that Andy is all-in on at Torrey Pines.
Download and listen to this week’s episode here: Apple | Spotify
Can Tony Finau finally get it done at Torrey Pines?
It’s time to get into the meat of the season. The Hawaiin swing is always fun, it’s nice to see the desert every once in a while (we’ll be back there next week), but once the schedule turns to Torrey Pines it’s officially golf season.
If it feels like we were just here, we were. Not only is the Farmers Insurance Open held at Torrey Pines every season, but the U.S. Open was held there as well. World. No. 1 Jon Rahm, who finished outside the top 10 in a golf tournament for the first time in seemingly five years at the American Express last week, took home the trophy for his first major championship win last June.
Our arrival at Torrey means another thing: The season of big ballparks is here. It’d be extremely surprising if the likes of a Branden Todd type won the Farmers (Todd took a ricochet shot there, but just trying to paint the picture).
Course(s)
Torrey Pines (North)
7,258 yards
Par 72
Torrey Pines (South)
7,765 yards
Par 72
The field will play each course over the first two days of the tournament, but once the cut is made, the weekend rounds will be played exclusively on the South Course.
Another quick programming note: Tournament days are Wednesday, January 26 – Saturday, January 29 (Tour doesn’t want to compete with the NFL on Sunday, and after last Sunday, it’s tough to blame them).
Weather
Day
Conditions
Percent chance of rain
Wind & Direction
Tuesday
Partly Cloudy
9 percent
8 MPH (S)
Wednesday
Partly Cloudy
2 percent
7 MPH (WNW)
Thursday
Sunny
0 percent
10 MPH (NNW)
Friday
Partly Cloudy
0 percent
8 MPH (NNE)
Saturday
Mostly Sunny
1 percent
9 MPH (NW)
Sunday
Sunny
2 percent
9 MPH (WSW)
Key stats
Total driving: The North Course is not only the easier of the two venues (by a wide margin, in fact), but each player will only see it once. Success at the South Course is more vital to a player’s success this week so we’ll focus there. The South is a tight piece of property, with punishing rough, and for the cherry on top, is LONG. Because of all that, we’ll be targeting guys who are studs off the tee box.
Strokes Gained: Approach: Data Golf has approach play second to only driving distance this week. There will be a lot of long irons into greens and the guys will have to take advantage of opportunities when they find themselves with wedges in hand.
Data Golf information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Congaree Golf Club, 2. Quail Hollow, 3. Corales Golf Club
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (11.1 percent), 2. Justin Thomas (6.4 percent), 3. Bryson DeChambeau (4.5 percent)
Latest Twilight 9 episode
Listen to this week’s show where Andy and I recap The American Express/LPGA TOC/DP World Tour’s HSBC Championship, discuss Rahm’s viral video, and preview the Farmers Insurance Open.
Matthew Wolff (Top 20): Miss
Scottie Scheffler (Top 10): Miss
Talor Gooch (Top 20): Miss
Adam Hadwin (Top 20): Miss
Seamus Power (Top GB+Ireland): Hit (+220)
Overall, down 1.8 units in the desert. Tough week, but we can bounce back.
+2.69 units on position plays in 2022.
Tony Finau – Top 20 (+135)
Tony Finau lines up a shot on the 17th hole during the third round of the American Express at the Stadium Course at PGA West on January 22, 2022, in La Quinta, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Finau is second to only Rahm in cumulative scoring at the Farmers since 2017 (Rahm -51, Finau -46). He didn’t have his best stuff at the Amex last week finishing in a tie for 40th.
However, his worst finish at the Farmers is T-24 (2015) and has since signed for four T-6 performances or better.
Maverick McNealy – Top 20 (+230)
Maverick McNealy of the United States plays his shot from the second tee during the first round of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba on the El Camaleon course on November 04, 2021, in Playa del Carmen. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
McNealy is off to a great start this season with five finishes of T-27 or better (including a solo 2nd to Max Homa at the Fortinet).
He doesn’t have a long resume at the Farmers Insurance Open, however, he’s two for three making the weekend including a top 20 finish in 2020 (T-29 in 2018).
Ryan Palmer – Top 20 (+300)
Ryan Palmer hits his tee shot on the fourth hole during the final round of the 2020 Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club. (Photo by Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports)
Palmer’s last start came at the Sony Open where he finished T-12. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open last year, but at Farmers, Palmer has finished T-21 or better in four consecutive starts (including 2 runner-ups). He’s 45 but still averages 307 off the box, long enough to keep up at Torrey.
Will Zalatoris – Top 20 (+155)
Will Zalatoris plays a shot on the 16th hole during the second round of The American Express at the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West on January 21, 2022, in La Quinta, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Coming off a top 10 in the desert, Willy Z finished T-7 here last season. Seems to play better at tough venues, evidenced by his top 10s at Augusta, Bay Hill, Kiawah Island, Winged Foot, and Torrey last season.
Joaquin Niemann – Top South American (+250)
Joaquin Niemann plays his shot from the tenth tee during the second round of the RSM Classic golf tournament at Sea Island Golf Club – Plantation Course. (Photo: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)
Niemann is three-for-three making the cut here. His ball-striking is always good, the issue is the putter. If he’s tightened up his short game over the last few months (hasn’t made a start on Tour since the RSM in November) he should play well.
Luke List – Top 20 (+300)
Luke List hits from the second hole tee box during the second round of The Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Riviera Country Club. (Phot: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
His last four starts at the Farmers, starting in 2018: T-12, T-40, T-36, and T-10. In his last seven starts on Tour: five starts of T-22 or better including four T-17 or better finishes with two of those being top 10s.
AKA: He’s playing really good golf and is headed to a venue where he feels comfortable.
Hideki, American Express, LPGA starting, Steve Scott and Kuz — big week for T9.
Welp, there isn’t much to say.
When you have Russell Henley to win at +3000, and he’s up five shots on Hideki Matsuyama making the turn, you can start counting your money. Or not. The Masters champ stormed from behind, forcing a playoff where he stuck a 3-wood from 276 yards to three feet.
My $100 bet on Russell Henley to win was suddenly a loser. That three grand would have been nice to put towards my student loans scheduled to start back up here in a month or so.
Tough scene.
Anyway, it’s a new week. The PGA Tour is finally back on the mainland and headed to the west coast for the American Express. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is back, along with fellow stars Patrick Cantlay and Phil Mickelson. Andy and I go through our favorite plays for the week, and who we think will contend.
Steve Scott, Golfweek‘s Director of Instruction, joins the show for the first time to discuss which players have an advantage in the desert this week, and who he thinks will win (hint, he went chalk).
And finally, NBA star Kyle Kuzma joined the program to discuss picking up golf a few years ago when the NBA was in a bubble during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Download this week’s episode here: Apple | Spotify
Can Scottie Scheffler finally get it done on the PGA Tour?
Last week hurt, not going to lie to you. Russell Henley, who was not only on the card for a top 20 but an outright win, was leading Hideki Matsuyama by five shots at the turn. Five. But the Masters champ came storming back, eventually beating the Bulldog in a one-hole playoff after sticking a 3-wood from 276 yards to about three feet.
Tough pill to swallow.
Anyway, it’s time to move on. This week is the American Express, and after COVID-19 forced the tournament into numerous changes in 2021, it’s back in full force this year. The tournament’s three-course rotation returns, along with a pro-am. For the first three rounds, the pros will be paired with a group of amateurs before a 54-hole cut is made and the remaining professionals will play their final round at the Stadium Course.
It’s also the first week where we get a glimpse of the new ESPN+ PGA Tour live service (we had it in Hawaii but in a limited capacity). Oh, and the field’s loaded.
Course(s)
PGA West (Stadium): Par 72, 7,113 yards La Quinta Country Club: Par 72, 7,060 yards PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): Par 72, 7,159 yards
Last year’s top 5
Si Woo Kim
Patrick Cantlay
Cam Davis
Tony Finau
Abraham Ancer, Doug Ghim, Michael Thompson
Weather
Day
Conditions
Percent chance of rain
Wind & Direction
Tuesday
Sunny
2 percent
8 MPH (NW)
Wednesday
Sunny
2 percent
4 MPH (WNW)
Thursday
Sunny
0 percent
7 MPH (NW)
Friday
Sunny
0 percent
6 MPH (NNW)
Saturday
Sunny
0 percent
12 MPH (NNW)
Sunday
Sunny
0 percent
7 MPH (NW)
Key stats
It’s difficult to know what’s important at this event. It’s played on three courses and only one of them records ShotLink data (Stadium). Course history and recent form will play a lot into the picks this week. However, Data Golf does note driving distance as an important aspect while playing the Stadium Course — something to keep in mind.
Data Golf information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Accordia Golf Narashino CC, 2. TPC Louisiana, 3. Caves Valley Golf Club
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (13.1 percent), 2. Patrick Cantlay (9.2 percent), 3. Scottie Scheffler (4.6 percent)
Betting card for the 2022 American Express (& Abu Dhabi HSBC)
Last week’s results (Sony Open)
Corey Conners – Top 20: Cash, +130
Charles Howell III – Top 20: Miss
Kevin Kisner – Top 20: Cash, +162
Russell Henley – Top 20: Cash, +162 +354 (+3.54 units) at Waialae
+4.49 units in 2022.
Rory McIlroy — Top 10 (EVEN)
Rory McIlroy watches his tee shot on the fourth tee during the second round of the Hero World Challenge PGA Tour at the Albany Golf Club, in New Providence, Bahamas, Friday, Dec. 3, 2021.(AP Photo/Fernando Llano)
Rors has played in this event since 2014 — he hasn’t finished worse than T-3. Pretty good.
He’s also my guy, so have to have him on the card somewhere.
Matthew Wolff — Top 20 (+155)
Matthew Wolff plays his shot from the third tee during the final round of the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 14, 2021, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Wolffy hasn’t played since the Houston Open, but he’s off to a tremendous start to the season. In four events so far, he’s finished T-17 (Sanderson Farms), 2 (Shriners), T-5 (Mayakoba), and T-11 (Houston Open).
He has yet to post a top 40 finish here, but it’s impossible to ignore this guy at an event that requires you to make an immense amount of birds. He’s 11th on Tour in birdie average, and first in scoring average.
Scottie Scheffler — Top 10 (+210)
Scottie Scheffler reacts on the 5th hole during the third round of The RSM Classic on the Seaside Course at Sea Island Resort on November 20, 2021, in St Simons Island, Georgia. (Photo: Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
Scheffler wasn’t around for the weekend a year ago, but back in 2020, the Texan snagged a solo third in the desert. He’s played in six events so far this season, three of which ended in top 4 finishes (two runner-ups).
The Ryder Cupper ranks inside the top 15 in birdie average on Tour, which again, will help around these tracks.
Talor Gooch — Top 20 (+125)
Talor Gooch hits his tee shot on the 11th hole during the second round of the Sony Open in Hawaii golf tournament at Waialae Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Gooch holds the second-best cumulative score at the American Express over the last three seasons. He’s also finished no worse than T-21 in those appearances highlighted by a solo fourth in 2019.
He’s coming off two solid weeks in Hawaii, shooting in the 60s seven of his eight rounds.
Welcome to the annual Charles Howell III Invitational.
It was so good to have PGA Tour golf back last week.
Cameron Smith outlasted a loaded leaderboard, including World No. 1 Jon Rahm, to capture his second win in Hawaii (Sony Open 2020).
This week, the boys are still in Hawaii for the Sony Open for the first full-field event of the new calendar year. Kevin Na took home the trophy last season and is once again in the field coming off a T-13 performance last week in Maui.
Smith has opened as the betting favorite at +1000. Bryson DeChambeau, who was originally in the field, has withdrawn from the event due to a wrist injury.
Course
Waialae Country Club
Par 70
7,044 yards
Seth Raynor design, Tom Doak restoration (2017)
Bermuda greens
Weather
Day
Conditions
Percent chance of rain
Wind & Direction
Tuesday
Partly Cloudy
2 percent
15 MPH (NNE)
Wednesday
Partly Cloudy
10 percent
8 MPH (ENE)
Thursday
Mostly Sunny
13 percent
9 MPH (NE)
Friday
Partly Cloudy
11 percent
6 MPH (W)
Saturday
Sunny
6 percent
8 MPH (NE)
Sunday
Sunny
10 percent
10 MPH (ENE)
Key stats
SG: Putting: Na was the first winner of the Sony since 2014 to not rank inside the top six in SG: Putting for the week. Have to roll the rock around this track.
SG: Approach: Five of the last six winners at Waialae have ranked inside the top 10 in SG: APP, with Smith being the lone outlier (ranked 53rd).
Data Golf information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. LaCantera GC, 2. Harbour Town Golf Links, 3. TPC Sugarloaf
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Cameron Smith (8.2 percent), 2. Sungjae Im (5.2 percent), 3. Webb Simpson (4.2 percent)
Last week’s results (Sentry Tournament of Champions)
Jordan Spieth – Top 10: Miss
Xander Schauffele – Top 5: Miss
Justin Thomas – Top 5: Hit, +155
Sungjae Im – Top 10: Hit, +140 +.95 units for the week
Corey Conners – Top 20 (+130)
Corey Conners prepares to putt on the first hole during the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 07, 2021, in Orlando, Florida. (Photo: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
It’s hard to believe we can get this guy for plus odds for a top 20, so we have to take it. Conners has played well here recently with a T-12 in 2020, and a T-3 in 2019.
He hasn’t played much this season with his last appearance coming at the RSM Classic in November. However, Data Golf has Conners ranked fifth in their CH index (average strokes-gained at the course). It’s a comfy fit for the Canadian, expect him to play well.
Charles Howell III – Top 20 (+220)
Charles Howell III hits his tee shot on the 2nd hole during the first round of The Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. (Photo: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)
There’s not much to say for this pick, let’s just take a look at this tweet from Justin Ray.
Charles Howell III career at the Sony Open
20 starts 20 made cuts 10 top 10s $3M earned 59 rounds in the 60s 190-under-par
Justin Thomas, an Alabama alum, makes Kevin Kisner, a Georgia alum, make good on his bet to wear an Alabama jersey after the Tide beat the Bulldogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship during the 2018 Sony Open at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo: Cal Sport Media via AP Images)
You’re going to tell me Georgia’s national championship win isn’t going to affect Kiz in the best way possible this week? Dude’s on cloud 9 and will be buzzing on and off the course. And, his approach play seemed to be back last week in Maui.
He struggled mightily last season with the blades, but his T-8 performance at the TOC is quite literally the best he could have done at that golf course, as he doesn’t have the length to keep up at the monster that is the Plantation Course.
He’s finished T-4 here twice in recent memory (2017, 2020), and loves Bermuda greens. Let’s ride with the Bulldog.
Russell Henley – Top 20 (+162)
Russell Henley of the United States lines up a putt on the 17th green during the third round of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba on El Camaleon golf course on November 06, 2021, in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Henley is a past champion of this event, winning all the way back in 2013. His results since have been a mixed bag, however, he does have three top 20s since 2015.
With the soft conditions expected at Waialae, Henley’s driving accuracy will be even more important as he’s found the short grass 69.93 percent of the time this season (17th on Tour). He also ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach on Tour.
Let’s play some team golf. The QBE Shootout is the last PGA Tour tournament on the schedule for the remainder of 2021, so we won’t see the guys again until Hawaii.
Last season, Matt Kuchar and Harris English broke their own scoring record in the unofficial event, a mark they originally set back in 2013, finishing at 37 under in the three-round event. They will partner again this time around with hopes to win the QBE for the fourth time.
Tiburon Golf Club
Par 72
7,382 yards
Bermuda grass greens
Greg Norman design
Weather
Day
Conditions
Percent chance of rain
Wind & Direction
Tuesday
Sunny
3 percent
8 MPH (NW)
Wednesday
Sunny
10 percent
10 MPH (S)
Thursday
Mostly Sunny
9 percent
8 MPH (S)
Friday
Partly Cloudy
9 percent
8 MPH (SSE)
Saturday
Sunny
9 percent
10 MPH (SSE)
Sunday
Partly Cloudy
20 percent
11 MPH (W)
Format
Friday: Scramble
Both players hit tee shots, the team then decides which drive is better, then both play from that position. That process is repeated until the team finishes the hole.
Saturday: Alternate shot
One player will tee off, the other will hit their second, and the alternation will repeat until the team finishes the hole. However, it’s determined before the round which player will tee off on even holes, and which will tee off on odd holes.
Sunday: Best ball
Each player will play the hole normally, and the team will take the best score.
Twilight 9
Listen to this week’s episode of Twilight 9 where Andy and I discuss the Hero World Challenge, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Tiger Woods grinding on the range, the QBE Shootout, and more.
Despite his best effort to ruin my plan last week, Collin Morikawa finished inside the top 5 and cashed +130. However, my guy, Rory McIlroy borderline finished last. So, for the week, we were up .3 units in the Bahamas. Let’s see what we can do in Naples.
Sam Burns and Billy Horschel to win (+380)
Billy Horschel and Sam Burns walk to the 10th green during the first round of the 2021 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. (Photo: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
There’s a reason why these guys are the betting favorite. Horschel has been in decent form, but Burns, he’s been on a different level. His finishes this season: 1, T-14, T-5, T-7, T-3.
Max Homa and Kevin Kisner to win (+750)
Kevin Kisner putts as Max Homa looks on from the 18th green during the continuation of play before the third round of the BMW Championship. (Photo: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports)
This is going to be the most enjoyable pair to watch on TV over the weekend. They’re going to go out there and have a good time, and I think that will translate into a solid result. Kisner hasn’t had his best stuff so far this season, but his partner already has a win (Fortinet Championship).
Jason Kokrak and Kevin Na to win (+550)
Jason Kokrak (L) and Kevin Na (R) walk to the 10th green during the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am at the Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Shore Course) on February 11, 2016 in Pebble Beach, California. (Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images)
Last time Kokrak teed it up, he won. Na hasn’t played much this season, with a missed cut at the Fortinet Championship and a T-49 at the CJ Cup. However, he was one of the runner-ups last season when he played with Sean O’Hair.
Tiger Woods is back in full grind mode, and you love to see it.
This week on the newest episode of the Twilight 9 podcast, Andy Nesbitt and Riley Hamel discuss Viktor Hovland’s win at the Hero World Challenge. Hovland may have left with the trophy, but that was only possible because of Collin Morikawa’s 41 on the front nine.
Tiger Woods, the tournament host, was on the range almost every day last week. You love to see that. Is he just getting the swing back? Or is he preparing for something?
A loaded field makes for a fantastic week in the Bahamas.
It’s time for a trip to the Bahamas.
The biggest stars in the game are headed to Albany for a little getaway, where they’ll also play some golf.
Tiger Woods’ Hero World Challenge took a year off last season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but returns with an enormous amount of juice. Why you may ask?
Albany Golf Course
Par 72
7,309 yards
The Ernie Els design features a links-style layout, where the winning score will be somewhere around 18 under.
Weather
Day
Conditions
Percent chance of rain
Wind & Direction
Tuesday
Partly Cloudy
7 percent
8 MPH (NE)
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
11 percent
10 MPH (E)
Thursday
Mostly Sunny
9 percent
9 PMH (NNE)
Friday
Partly Cloudy
6 percent
12 MPH (ENE)
Saturday
Partly Cloudy
14 percent
10 MPH (E)
Sunday
Partly Cloudy
23 percent
9 MPH (E)
Key Stats
Data Golf has Strokes Gained: Approach as their far-and-away most important stat for the week, and it makes sense. If you look back at the players who have won at this golf course over the years (Henrik Stenson, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama), they’re all fantastic iron players.
At a course with relatively large fairways, I always like to keep an eye out for the bombers. I’m not saying you have to be a long-ball hitter to compete here, but distance doesn’t hurt when you need to go low to win.
Data Golf information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. PGA West (Palmer), 2. Warwick Golf and Country Club, 3. Detroit Golf Club
Trending (among the players in the field): 1. Justin Thomas (last three starts: 4, T-18, 3), 2. Bryson DeChambeau (T-31, 2, 7), 3. Rory McIlroy (T-14, 1, T-6)
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Justin Thomas (8.7 percent), 2. Viktor Hovland (8.3 percent), 3. Bryson DeChambeau (7.9 percent)
Twilight 9
Download this week’s episode to listen to Andy and my preview of the Hero World Challenge: Apple | Spotify
We got killed at the RSM Classic with Russell Henley missing a top 20 finish by a shot. Good news: We’re still in the green over the last five events. We’re going to have to hit a winner pick this week with only 20 players in the field.
Betting card for the Hero World Challenge
Rory McIlroy – Top 5 (+125)
Rory McIlroy celebrates after winning the CJ Cup golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
The last time we saw Mr. McIlroy on the PGA Tour, he was lifting a trophy on the 18th green at the CJ Cup in Vegas. However, the last time we saw McIlroy on the golf course, he went full Hulk-mode on his shirt after finishing T-6 failing to convert on yet another 54-hole lead.
This will be McIlroy’s first appearance at Albany, but I think his game fits the course pretty well. Plus, when he’s in the field, I will bet on him. Every time.
Collin Morikawa – Top 5 (+130)
Collin Morikawa of the United States celebrates with the Race To Dubai trophy following and the DP World Tour Championship trophy after winning the DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Golf Estates on November 21, 2021, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Here’s my thinking: One of these two guys will finish in the top 5. If both hit, great. If not, we’ll still pocket some cash.
Morikawa will become the No. 1 player in the world if he wins in the Bahamas this week. He’d become the second-fastest player in history to reach the top – you could probably guess who was the fastest.
His last start ended with new hardware for his trophy case.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – To win (+2000)
Matt Fitzpatrick of England tees off on the 10th hole during the first round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course on October 28, 2021 in Southampton, . (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
I wanted to select a guy who comes into the week under the radar. Great in the wind, fantastic ball-striker, and can absolutely roll it.
Fitzy won in Spain a month and a half ago, and finished runner-up to Morikawa in Dubai in his last start.
Consecutive winning weeks in Mexico and Houston, up 4.5 units over those two events, let’s keep it going.
After a week in Texas, the PGA Tour heads to the east coast for the RSM Classic. Robert Streb—yes, Robert Streb—returns as the defending champion after taking down Kevin Kisner in a playoff last season. Streb is in good form, recording a pair of top 10s in his last three starts.
Scottie Scheffler (+1200) enters the week as the betting favorite, and like Streb, is in fantastic form. After turning in a solo fourth in Mexico, the Texan was a red-hot Jason Kokrak away from capturing his first Tour win in Houston last week (Scheffler finished T-2).
Both courses will be used on Thursday and Friday, while weekend play will be exclusively on the Seaside course.
Weather
Day
Conditions
Chance of rain
Wind and direction
Tuesday
Sunny
1 percent
7 MPH (SE)
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
7 percent
7 MPH (ENE)
Thursday
Partly Cloudy
19 percent
6 PMH (SE)
Friday
Partly Cloudy
9 percent
18 MPH (NNE)
Saturday
Partly Cloudy
17 percent
17 MPH (NE)
Sunday
Partly Cloudy
14 percent
13 MPH (NNE)
Key stats
Driving accuracy: I said it a few weeks ago, but on short golf courses, it’s important to find the fairway. Data Golf agrees with me, as it lists driving accuracy as the most important stat for the week.
Putting (Bermuda): If you listen to Twilight 9, or if you read the in-depth previews every week, you know what’s coming next. Some guys hate Bermuda greens, some love them. Just look at Kisner’s record at this place — dude loves Bermuda more than anyone on Earth.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. TPC Twin Cities, 2. The Concession Golf Club, 3. Detroit Golf Club
Trending (among the players in the field): 1. Cameron Smith (last three starts: T-14, T-9, T-15), 2. Talor Gooch (T-5, T-11, 60), 3. Scottie Scheffler (T-38, 4, T-2)
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Scottie Scheffler (5 percent), 2. Louis Oosthuizen (4.4 percent), 3. Cameron Smith (4.3 percent)
Scottie Scheffler plays his shot from the 14th tee during the second round of the Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 12, 2021, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
He’s going back on the card. He’s hot. I refuse to be off the Scheffler bandwagon when he finally gets it done. He led going into the final round in Mexico, but couldn’t overcome Kokrak, finishing T-2.
Scheffler has made just one start at the RSM Classic, but he cashed a T-5. A week before his runner-up in his home state, Scheffler finished solo 4th in Mexico.
Russell Henley — Top 20 (+150)
Russell Henley watches his tee shot on the sixteenth hole during the third round of the Wyndham Championship. Photo by Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
When he’s on a heater, you have to bet the heater. He played well in Houston and cashed a T-7. He finished T-30 at this event last season, but grabbed consecutive top 10s in 2016 and 2015. Not much else to say, let’s go, Henley.
Robert Streb — Top 20 (+320)
Robert Streb celebrates with the trophy after winning in a sudden-death playoff against Kevin Kisner during the final round of The RSM Classic at the Seaside Course at Sea Island Golf Club on November 22, 2020, in St Simons Island, Georgia. Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
Value play! And what a value play it is. Streb is in great form with two top 10s in his last three starts. He’s won at this golf course twice, his only wins on Tour, including last season. Form + course history = top 20? I think so.
