Tag: Betting Picks

2022 WM Phoenix Open odds, key statistics, best bets and PGA Tour picks

Will Viktor Hovland’s dominate run continue in the desert?

After an interesting week on the Monterey Peninsula, which included Jordan Spieth nearly falling 100 feet to his death, the PGA Tour heads to the desert for the 2022 WM Phoenix Open.

The rowdy crowds of Scottsdale, Arizona are being blessed this week with one of the best fields ever compiled for a non-major event. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is joined by the likes of Justin Thomas, the aforementioned Spieth, and defending champion Brooks Koepka.

Overall, six of the world’s top 10 players are in the field. Stacked.

Before jumping into some plays I like for the week, let’s cover some information about the course.

Golf course

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
Par 71
7,261 yards

Weather

I was going to put together my normal weather graph for the week, however, it’s the desert. Zero percent chance of rain every tournament day with nothing but sun. There ya go.

Key stats

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee: Having length and accuracy around this track is important, the guys won’t want to play from the desert all week.

Approach from 150-200: Almost 50 percent of approach shots hit at TPC Scottsdale over the last several seasons are from this range. Overall, we’ll be targeting tee-to-green studs this week and hope we run into a hot putter.

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Annandale Golf Club, 2. Southern Hills Country Club, 3. Silverado Resort and Spa

Trending: 1. Patrick Cantlay (Last three starts: 4, 9, T-4), 2. Viktor Hovland (T-30, T-4, 1), 3. Justin Thomas (T-5, T-5, T-20)

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (10.8 percent), 2. Patrick Cantlay (7.1 percent), 3. Justin Thomas (5.7 percent)

Latest Twilight 9 episode

This week’s episode of Twilight 9 will be released Wednesday (February 9th). This will be updated with links and player once available.

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Player Odds
Jon Rahm (+750)
Justin Thomas (+1200)
Patrick Cantlay (+1500)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
Jordan Spieth (+2000)
Viktor Hovland (+2000)
Xander Schauffele (+2000)
Brooks Koepka (+3000)
Daniel Berger (+3000)
Scottie Scheffler (+3000)

Betting card for the 2022 WM Phoenix Open

Last week’s results (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)

The only bet we cashed was Christiaan Bezuidenhout for Top South African at +180. Down 3.2 units last week. Time to bounce back.

+7.54 units in 2022.

Bubba Watson – Top 20 (+175)

Bubba Watson of the United States plays his shot from the third tee during the first round of the QBE Shootout at Tiburon Golf Club on December 10, 2021, in Naples, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

Watson finished runner-up to Harold Varner III at last week’s Saudi International.

The two-time Masters champ hasn’t made an official start this season on the PGA Tour but has played well at the WMPO in recent years. He’s finished inside the top five in two of the last three seasons.

Xander Schauffele – Top 20 (+115)

Xander Schauffele hits his tee shot on the 13th hole during the third round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions golf tournament at Kapalua Resort – The Plantation Course. (Photo: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

Schauffele finished T-34 at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago but is coming off a top 20 performance at the Saudi International.

He’s finished inside the top 20 at the last four installments of this event, including a runner-up effort to Brooks Koepka last season.

Scottie Scheffler – Top 20 (+135)

Scottie Scheffler hits his tee shot on the second hole during the third round of The Farmers Insurance Open on the South Course at Torrey Pines Golf Course on January 28, 2022, in La Jolla, California. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images)

I will not stop betting on Scottie until he wins. So he’s on the card again.

Scheffler’s last start was at Torrey and he tied for 20th. Last season, the Texan cashed a top 10 check at the WMPO. Come on Scottie, let’s get it done.

Other bets to consider

Andrew Putnam (Top 20, +320): He’s trending in the right direction. His last 3 starts: T-27, T-14, T-6 (Pebble). Last season, Putnam finished 7th at the WMPO after missing the cut in two consecutive appearances there.

Luke List (Top 20, +240): List is coming off a win at the Farmers Insurance Open and hasn’t finished outside the Top 22 in his last four starts. He’s finished inside the Top 30 in three of the last four Phoenix Opens.

*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, February 9th.

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2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds, key statistics, and best bets

After a solid week at Torrey Pines, can Jason Day return to his winning ways?

Despite personal feelings for the course, Torrey Pines delivered an amazing finish once again resulting in Luke List’s first win on the PGA Tour taking down the reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year Will Zalatoris in a playoff.

Another playoff loss for one of my outright picks. Hate to see it, but that just means we’re destined to land one soon.

Anyway, this week the PGA Tour heads down to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am won last year by Daniel Berger. He opens the week as the second betting favorite (+1200), only behind Patrick Cantlay (+750).

Like many of the tournaments we see in the early calendar year, several venues will be used throughout the week before the final round is back at Pebble.

Course(s)

Pebble Beach Golf Links
Par 72
6,972 yards

Spyglass Hill
Par 72
7,041

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Shore)
Par 71
6,957 yards

Weather

Day Conditions Percent chance of rain Wind & Direction
Tuesday Sunny 2 percent 13 MPH (N)
Wednesday Sunny 0 percent 11 MPH (NNE)
Thursday Mostly Sunny 3 percent 8 MPH (N)
Friday Sunny 3 percent 5 MPH (NW)
Saturday Mostly Sunny 3 percent 8 MPH (N)
Sunday Sunny 3 percent 7 MPH (N)

Key stats

Strokes Gained: Approach: Fairways are easy to find around these courses, so making sure the iron play stands above the rest is going to be critical.

Proximity from 100-150 yards: These three tracks are on the shorter side so the majority of the field is going to have a lot of wedges and short irons into greens. Stuffing those opportunities will maximize birdie potential.

Data Golf information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. La Quinta Country Club, 2. Cog Hill Golf and Country Club, 3. CordeValle

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Patrick Cantlay (13.5 percent), 2. Daniel Berger (7.8 percent), 3. Will Zalatoris (3.8 percent)

Latest Twilight 9 episode

This week on the show Andy and I dive into List’s win at the Farmers Insurance Open, how Zalatoris’ first win is coming soon, a preview for this week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and tons more. Listen, download, and subscribe to the show for free here.

Apple | Spotify

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Player Odds
Patrick Cantlay (+700)
Daniel Berger (+1000)
Justin Rose (+2000)
Jason Day (+2000)
Jordan Spieth (+2000)
Maverick McNealy (+2000)
Seamus Power (+3000)
Cameron Tringale (+3000)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3000)
Kevin Streelman (+4000)

Betting card for the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Last week’s results (Farmers Insurance Open)

Tony Finau (Top 20): Miss
Maverick McNealy (Top 20): Miss
Will Zalatoris (Top 20): Hit, +155
Joaquin Niemann (Top South American): Hit, +250
Ryan Palmer (Top 20): Hit, +300
Luke List (Top 20): Hit +300

+802 (8.02 units) at the Farmers Insurance Open

+10.74 units in 2022

Jason Day – Top 20 (+115)

Farmers Insurance Open 2022
Jason Day plays his second shot on the fourth hole during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines South Course in San Diego. (Photo: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)

Day, after a hole-out eagle on the 14th, tied for the lead in the final round at the Farmers. After a few late bogeys, he dropped, but still finished inside the top five (T-3).

Day’s last seven starts at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T-7 (2021), 4 (2020), T-4 (2019), T-2 (2018), T-5 (2017), T-11 (2016), and T-4 (2015).

Maverick McNealy – Top 20 (+150)

Sony Open in Hawaii
Maverick McNealy hits his tee shot on the 11th hole during the first round of the Sony Open in Hawaii golf tournament at Waialae Country Club. (Photo: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

Despite his finishing position, McNealy continued his stretch of good play at the Farmers Insurance Open. He ended the week T-30, but really only struggled on Sunday making six bogeys before pouring in a birdie on 17 and an eagle on 18.

Mav finished solo runner-up to Berger at the Pro-Am last year and signed for T-5 the year before. The California native feels comfortable at Pebble and is in great position for another solid week.

Mito Pereira – Top 20 (+250)

Mito Pereira of Chile plays his shot from the tenth tee during the first round of the Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 11, 2021, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Pereira has three straight top 30 finishes, with another one coming last week at the Farmers (T-25). He’s seventh on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach.

He finished solo third at the Fortinet Championship earlier this season on poa anna greens. On top of everything, the Chilean has won a pro-am event before on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout – Top South African (+180)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout hits his drive on the 10th hole during the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. (Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)

Bezuidenhout grabbed a top 20 earlier this season at the Sony before two consecutive mediocre performances (T-40, T-46 the last two weeks). He has a thing for performing well at short golf courses.

*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday

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Twilight 9 podcast: Luke List’s first PGA Tour win, Torrey Pines delivers again, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview with betting outlook

Yet another week losing an outright pick in a playoff.

Busy week in the golf world. Lydia Ko gets No. 21. Luke List gets No. 1. And Riley lost another outright winner in a playoff.

Sick!

This week on the show Andy and I talk about Torrey Pines, and despite mixed feelings about the golf course, it delivers every single time the PGA Tour is there. It’s uncanny.

We also dive in on Will Zalatoris and his, let’s just say less than confident, putting stroke from inside five feet.

Then we jump into our preview for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It’s always good to be back on the Monterey Peninsula, and not only is the PGA Tour back, but the amateurs are as well after a year hiatus due to COVID-19.

Our betting segment is loaded with players we’re targeting this week and hopefully, we can finally capitalize on an outright winner.

Listen, download, and subscribe to the show for free here: Apple | Spotify

Listen here:

Follow the guys on Twitter: Riley | Andy

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Twilight 9 podcast: A proposed ‘Tyrrell Hatton cam’, Farmers Insurance Open preview, betting picks, and more

Tyrrell Hatton continues to be one of the most electric players in golf.

For The Win’s Andy Nesbitt, co-host of this podcast, has a new favorite golfer: Tyrrell Hatton.

Hatton continues to show that he’s one of the most electric players in the game, and we think he might be worthy of an independent video stream every time he tees it up.

In this podcast, we recap the American Express and discuss the viral video of Jon Rahm explaining his frustration with the tournament setup.

The LPGA season opener was fantastic as Danielle Kang added another piece of hardware to her trophy case.

This week is the Farmers Insurance Open and we discuss the field, course, key statistics, and our favorite bets for the week including the guy that Andy is all-in on at Torrey Pines.

Download and listen to this week’s episode here: Apple | Spotify

Follow the guys on Twitter: Riley | Andy

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2022 Farmers Insurance Open odds, key statistics, and best bets

Can Tony Finau finally get it done at Torrey Pines?

It’s time to get into the meat of the season. The Hawaiin swing is always fun, it’s nice to see the desert every once in a while (we’ll be back there next week), but once the schedule turns to Torrey Pines it’s officially golf season.

If it feels like we were just here, we were. Not only is the Farmers Insurance Open held at Torrey Pines every season, but the U.S. Open was held there as well. World. No. 1 Jon Rahm, who finished outside the top 10 in a golf tournament for the first time in seemingly five years at the American Express last week, took home the trophy for his first major championship win last June.

Our arrival at Torrey means another thing: The season of big ballparks is here. It’d be extremely surprising if the likes of a Branden Todd type won the Farmers (Todd took a ricochet shot there, but just trying to paint the picture).

Course(s)

Torrey Pines (North)
7,258 yards
Par 72

Torrey Pines (South)
7,765 yards
Par 72

The field will play each course over the first two days of the tournament, but once the cut is made, the weekend rounds will be played exclusively on the South Course.

Another quick programming note: Tournament days are Wednesday, January 26 – Saturday, January 29 (Tour doesn’t want to compete with the NFL on Sunday, and after last Sunday, it’s tough to blame them).

Weather

Day Conditions Percent chance of rain Wind & Direction
Tuesday Partly Cloudy 9 percent 8 MPH (S)
Wednesday Partly Cloudy 2 percent 7 MPH (WNW)
Thursday Sunny 0 percent 10 MPH (NNW)
Friday Partly Cloudy 0 percent 8 MPH (NNE)
Saturday Mostly Sunny 1 percent 9 MPH (NW)
Sunday Sunny 2 percent 9 MPH (WSW)

Key stats

Total driving: The North Course is not only the easier of the two venues (by a wide margin, in fact), but each player will only see it once. Success at the South Course is more vital to a player’s success this week so we’ll focus there. The South is a tight piece of property, with punishing rough, and for the cherry on top, is LONG. Because of all that, we’ll be targeting guys who are studs off the tee box.

Strokes Gained: Approach: Data Golf has approach play second to only driving distance this week. There will be a lot of long irons into greens and the guys will have to take advantage of opportunities when they find themselves with wedges in hand.

Data Golf information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Congaree Golf Club, 2. Quail Hollow, 3. Corales Golf Club

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (11.1 percent), 2. Justin Thomas (6.4 percent), 3. Bryson DeChambeau (4.5 percent)

Latest Twilight 9 episode

Listen to this week’s show where Andy and I recap The American Express/LPGA TOC/DP World Tour’s HSBC Championship, discuss Rahm’s viral video, and preview the Farmers Insurance Open.

Apple | Spotify

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Player Odds
Jon Rahm (+700)
Justin Thomas (+1300)
Xander Schauffele (+1500)
Dustin Johnson (+2000)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
Daniel Berger (+2000)
Scottie Scheffler (+2000)
Sam Burns (+2000)
Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
Marc Leishman (+3000)

Betting card for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open

Last week’s results (American Express)

Matthew Wolff (Top 20): Miss
Scottie Scheffler (Top 10): Miss
Talor Gooch (Top 20): Miss
Adam Hadwin (Top 20): Miss
Seamus Power (Top GB+Ireland): Hit (+220)

Overall, down 1.8 units in the desert. Tough week, but we can bounce back.

+2.69 units on position plays in 2022.

Tony Finau – Top 20 (+135)

Tony Finau lines up a shot on the 17th hole during the third round of the American Express at the Stadium Course at PGA West on January 22, 2022, in La Quinta, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Finau is second to only Rahm in cumulative scoring at the Farmers since 2017 (Rahm -51, Finau -46). He didn’t have his best stuff at the Amex last week finishing in a tie for 40th.

However, his worst finish at the Farmers is T-24 (2015) and has since signed for four T-6 performances or better.

Maverick McNealy – Top 20 (+230)

Maverick McNealy of the United States plays his shot from the second tee during the first round of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba on the El Camaleon course on November 04, 2021, in Playa del Carmen. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

McNealy is off to a great start this season with five finishes of T-27 or better (including a solo 2nd to Max Homa at the Fortinet).

He doesn’t have a long resume at the Farmers Insurance Open, however, he’s two for three making the weekend including a top 20 finish in 2020 (T-29 in 2018).

Ryan Palmer – Top 20 (+300)

Ryan Palmer hits his tee shot on the fourth hole during the final round of the 2020 Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club. (Photo by Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports)

Palmer’s last start came at the Sony Open where he finished T-12. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open last year, but at Farmers, Palmer has finished T-21 or better in four consecutive starts (including 2 runner-ups). He’s 45 but still averages 307 off the box, long enough to keep up at Torrey.

Will Zalatoris – Top 20 (+155)

Will Zalatoris plays a shot on the 16th hole during the second round of The American Express at the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West on January 21, 2022, in La Quinta, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Coming off a top 10 in the desert, Willy Z finished T-7 here last season. Seems to play better at tough venues, evidenced by his top 10s at Augusta, Bay Hill, Kiawah Island, Winged Foot, and Torrey last season.

Joaquin Niemann – Top South American (+250)

Joaquin Niemann plays his shot from the tenth tee during the second round of the RSM Classic golf tournament at Sea Island Golf Club – Plantation Course. (Photo: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)

Niemann is three-for-three making the cut here. His ball-striking is always good, the issue is the putter. If he’s tightened up his short game over the last few months (hasn’t made a start on Tour since the RSM in November) he should play well.

Luke List – Top 20 (+300)

Luke List hits from the second hole tee box during the second round of The Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Riviera Country Club. (Phot: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

His last four starts at the Farmers, starting in 2018: T-12, T-40, T-36, and T-10. In his last seven starts on Tour: five starts of T-22 or better including four T-17 or better finishes with two of those being top 10s.

AKA: He’s playing really good golf and is headed to a venue where he feels comfortable.

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Twilight 9 podcast: Hideki Matsuyama cost Riley $3K, American Express betting preview, and Kyle Kuzma joins the show

Hideki, American Express, LPGA starting, Steve Scott and Kuz — big week for T9.

Welp, there isn’t much to say.

When you have Russell Henley to win at +3000, and he’s up five shots on Hideki Matsuyama making the turn, you can start counting your money. Or not. The Masters champ stormed from behind, forcing a playoff where he stuck a 3-wood from 276 yards to three feet.

My $100 bet on Russell Henley to win was suddenly a loser. That three grand would have been nice to put towards my student loans scheduled to start back up here in a month or so.

Tough scene.

Anyway, it’s a new week. The PGA Tour is finally back on the mainland and headed to the west coast for the American Express. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is back, along with fellow stars Patrick Cantlay and Phil Mickelson. Andy and I go through our favorite plays for the week, and who we think will contend.

Steve Scott, Golfweek‘s Director of Instruction, joins the show for the first time to discuss which players have an advantage in the desert this week, and who he thinks will win (hint, he went chalk).

And finally, NBA star Kyle Kuzma joined the program to discuss picking up golf a few years ago when the NBA was in a bubble during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Download this week’s episode here: Apple | Spotify

Follow the guys on Twitter: Riley | Andy

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2022 American Express best bets, odds, key statistics, and more

Can Scottie Scheffler finally get it done on the PGA Tour?

Last week hurt, not going to lie to you. Russell Henley, who was not only on the card for a top 20 but an outright win, was leading Hideki Matsuyama by five shots at the turn. Five. But the Masters champ came storming back, eventually beating the Bulldog in a one-hole playoff after sticking a 3-wood from 276 yards to about three feet.

Tough pill to swallow.

Anyway, it’s time to move on. This week is the American Express, and after COVID-19 forced the tournament into numerous changes in 2021, it’s back in full force this year. The tournament’s three-course rotation returns, along with a pro-am. For the first three rounds, the pros will be paired with a group of amateurs before a 54-hole cut is made and the remaining professionals will play their final round at the Stadium Course.

It’s also the first week where we get a glimpse of the new ESPN+ PGA Tour live service (we had it in Hawaii but in a limited capacity). Oh, and the field’s loaded.

Course(s)

PGA West (Stadium): Par 72, 7,113 yards
La Quinta Country Club: Par 72, 7,060 yards
PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): Par 72, 7,159 yards

Last year’s top 5

  1. Si Woo Kim
  2. Patrick Cantlay
  3. Cam Davis
  4. Tony Finau
  5. Abraham Ancer, Doug Ghim, Michael Thompson

Weather

Day Conditions Percent chance of rain Wind & Direction
Tuesday Sunny 2 percent 8 MPH (NW)
Wednesday Sunny 2 percent 4 MPH (WNW)
Thursday Sunny 0 percent 7 MPH (NW)
Friday Sunny 0 percent 6 MPH (NNW)
Saturday Sunny 0 percent 12 MPH (NNW)
Sunday Sunny 0 percent 7 MPH (NW)

Key stats

It’s difficult to know what’s important at this event. It’s played on three courses and only one of them records ShotLink data (Stadium). Course history and recent form will play a lot into the picks this week. However, Data Golf does note driving distance as an important aspect while playing the Stadium Course — something to keep in mind.

Data Golf information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Accordia Golf Narashino CC, 2. TPC Louisiana, 3. Caves Valley Golf Club

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (13.1 percent), 2. Patrick Cantlay (9.2 percent), 3. Scottie Scheffler (4.6 percent)

Latest Twilight 9 episode

Apple | Spotify

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Player Odds
Jon Rahm (+550)
Patrick Cantlay (+900)
Tony Finau (+2000)
Corey Conners (+2000)
Scottie Scheffler (+2000)
Talor Gooch (+2000)
Sungjae Im (+2000)
Seamus Power (+3000)
Russell Henley (+3000)
Abraham Ancer (+3000)

Betting card for the 2022 American Express (& Abu Dhabi HSBC)

Last week’s results (Sony Open)

Corey Conners – Top 20: Cash, +130
Charles Howell III – Top 20: Miss
Kevin Kisner – Top 20: Cash, +162
Russell Henley – Top 20: Cash, +162
+354 (+3.54 units) at Waialae

+4.49 units in 2022.

Rory McIlroy — Top 10 (EVEN)

Hero World Challenge 2021
Rory McIlroy watches his tee shot on the fourth tee during the second round of the Hero World Challenge PGA Tour at the Albany Golf Club, in New Providence, Bahamas, Friday, Dec. 3, 2021.(AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

Rors has played in this event since 2014 — he hasn’t finished worse than T-3. Pretty good.

He’s also my guy, so have to have him on the card somewhere.

Matthew Wolff — Top 20 (+155)

Matthew Wolff plays his shot from the third tee during the final round of the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 14, 2021, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Wolffy hasn’t played since the Houston Open, but he’s off to a tremendous start to the season. In four events so far, he’s finished T-17 (Sanderson Farms), 2 (Shriners), T-5 (Mayakoba), and T-11 (Houston Open).

He has yet to post a top 40 finish here, but it’s impossible to ignore this guy at an event that requires you to make an immense amount of birds. He’s 11th on Tour in birdie average, and first in scoring average.

Scottie Scheffler — Top 10 (+210)

The RSM Classic 2021
Scottie Scheffler reacts on the 5th hole during the third round of The RSM Classic on the Seaside Course at Sea Island Resort on November 20, 2021, in St Simons Island, Georgia. (Photo: Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

Scheffler wasn’t around for the weekend a year ago, but back in 2020, the Texan snagged a solo third in the desert. He’s played in six events so far this season, three of which ended in top 4 finishes (two runner-ups).

The Ryder Cupper ranks inside the top 15 in birdie average on Tour, which again, will help around these tracks.

Talor Gooch — Top 20 (+125)

Sony Open in Hawaii 2022
Talor Gooch hits his tee shot on the 11th hole during the second round of the Sony Open in Hawaii golf tournament at Waialae Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Gooch holds the second-best cumulative score at the American Express over the last three seasons. He’s also finished no worse than T-21 in those appearances highlighted by a solo fourth in 2019.

He’s coming off two solid weeks in Hawaii, shooting in the 60s seven of his eight rounds.

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2022 Sony Open best bets, odds, course overview, key statistics, and more

Welcome to the annual Charles Howell III Invitational.

It was so good to have PGA Tour golf back last week.

Cameron Smith outlasted a loaded leaderboard, including World No. 1 Jon Rahm, to capture his second win in Hawaii (Sony Open 2020).

This week, the boys are still in Hawaii for the Sony Open for the first full-field event of the new calendar year. Kevin Na took home the trophy last season and is once again in the field coming off a T-13 performance last week in Maui.

Smith has opened as the betting favorite at +1000. Bryson DeChambeau, who was originally in the field, has withdrawn from the event due to a wrist injury.

Course

Waialae Country Club
Par 70
7,044 yards
Seth Raynor design, Tom Doak restoration (2017)
Bermuda greens

Weather

Day Conditions Percent chance of rain Wind & Direction
Tuesday Partly Cloudy 2 percent 15 MPH (NNE)
Wednesday Partly Cloudy 10 percent 8 MPH (ENE)
Thursday Mostly Sunny 13 percent 9 MPH (NE)
Friday Partly Cloudy 11 percent 6 MPH (W)
Saturday Sunny 6 percent 8 MPH (NE)
Sunday Sunny 10 percent 10 MPH (ENE)

Key stats

SG: Putting: Na was the first winner of the Sony since 2014 to not rank inside the top six in SG: Putting for the week. Have to roll the rock around this track.

SG: Approach: Five of the last six winners at Waialae have ranked inside the top 10 in SG: APP, with Smith being the lone outlier (ranked 53rd).

Data Golf information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. LaCantera GC, 2. Harbour Town Golf Links, 3. TPC Sugarloaf

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Cameron Smith (8.2 percent), 2. Sungjae Im (5.2 percent), 3. Webb Simpson (4.2 percent)

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Player Odds
Cameron Smith (+1000)
Webb Simpson (+1500)
Sungjae Im (+1500)
Marc Leishman (+2000)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
Corey Conners (+2000)
Kevin Na (+3000)
Russell Henley (+3000)
Abraham Ancer (+3000)
Talor Gooch (+3000)

Betting card for the Sony Open

Last week’s results (Sentry Tournament of Champions)

Jordan Spieth – Top 10: Miss
Xander Schauffele – Top 5: Miss
Justin Thomas – Top 5: Hit, +155
Sungjae Im – Top 10: Hit, +140
+.95 units for the week

Corey Conners – Top 20 (+130)

Corey Conners Arnold Palmer Invitational
Corey Conners prepares to putt on the first hole during the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 07, 2021, in Orlando, Florida. (Photo: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

It’s hard to believe we can get this guy for plus odds for a top 20, so we have to take it. Conners has played well here recently with a T-12 in 2020, and a T-3 in 2019.

He hasn’t played much this season with his last appearance coming at the RSM Classic in November. However, Data Golf has Conners ranked fifth in their CH index (average strokes-gained at the course). It’s a comfy fit for the Canadian, expect him to play well.

Charles Howell III – Top 20 (+220)

Charles Howell III hits his tee shot on the 2nd hole during the first round of The Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. (Photo: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)

There’s not much to say for this pick, let’s just take a look at this tweet from Justin Ray.

Howell has three straight top 20s in Honolulu.

Kevin Kisner – Top 20 (+162)

Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner
Justin Thomas, an Alabama alum, makes Kevin Kisner, a Georgia alum, make good on his bet to wear an Alabama jersey after the Tide beat the Bulldogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship during the 2018 Sony Open at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo: Cal Sport Media via AP Images)

You’re going to tell me Georgia’s national championship win isn’t going to affect Kiz in the best way possible this week? Dude’s on cloud 9 and will be  buzzing on and off the course. And, his approach play seemed to be back last week in Maui.

He struggled mightily last season with the blades, but his T-8 performance at the TOC is quite literally the best he could have done at that golf course, as he doesn’t have the length to keep up at the monster that is the Plantation Course.

He’s finished T-4 here twice in recent memory (2017, 2020), and loves Bermuda greens. Let’s ride with the Bulldog.

Russell Henley – Top 20 (+162)

Russell Henley of the United States lines up a putt on the 17th green during the third round of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba on El Camaleon golf course on November 06, 2021, in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Henley is a past champion of this event, winning all the way back in 2013. His results since have been a mixed bag, however, he does have three top 20s since 2015.

With the soft conditions expected at Waialae, Henley’s driving accuracy will be even more important as he’s found the short grass 69.93 percent of the time this season (17th on Tour). He also ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach on Tour.

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QBE Shootout: In-depth preview including betting odds, picks for the week, and more

It’s time for the final PGA Tour event of 2021.

Let’s play some team golf. The QBE Shootout is the last PGA Tour tournament on the schedule for the remainder of 2021, so we won’t see the guys again until Hawaii.

Last season, Matt Kuchar and Harris English broke their own scoring record in the unofficial event, a mark they originally set back in 2013, finishing at 37 under in the three-round event. They will partner again this time around with hopes to win the QBE for the fourth time.

Jason Day and Marc Leishman will also look to add a team championship to their resumes. Leishman won the Zurich Classic back in April with Cameron Smith, and the pair finished eighth at last year’s QBE.

More: Everything you need to know about the QBE Shootout

Golf course

Tiburon Golf Club
Par 72
7,382 yards
Bermuda grass greens
Greg Norman design

Weather

Day Conditions Percent chance of rain Wind & Direction
Tuesday Sunny 3 percent 8 MPH (NW)
Wednesday Sunny 10 percent 10 MPH (S)
Thursday Mostly Sunny 9 percent 8 MPH (S)
Friday Partly Cloudy 9 percent 8 MPH (SSE)
Saturday Sunny 9 percent 10 MPH (SSE)
Sunday Partly Cloudy 20 percent 11 MPH (W)

Format

Friday: Scramble
Both players hit tee shots, the team then decides which drive is better, then both play from that position. That process is repeated until the team finishes the hole.

Saturday: Alternate shot
One player will tee off, the other will hit their second, and the alternation will repeat until the team finishes the hole. However, it’s determined before the round which player will tee off on even holes, and which will tee off on odd holes.

Sunday: Best ball
Each player will play the hole normally, and the team will take the best score.

Twilight 9

Listen to this week’s episode of Twilight 9 where Andy and I discuss the Hero World Challenge, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Tiger Woods grinding on the range, the QBE Shootout, and more.

Apple | Spotify

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Sam Burns & Billy Horschel (+380)
Jason Kokrak & Kevin Na (+550)
Harris English & Matt Kuchar (+600)
Jason Day & Marc Leishman (+750)
Max Homa & Kevin Kisner (+750)
Ian Poulter & Lee Westwood (+1000)
Corey Connors & Graeme McDowell (+1000)
Brian Harmon & Hudson Swafford (+1200)
Matt Jones & Ryan Palmer (+1200)
Sean O’Hair & Will Zalatoris (+1200)

Betting card for the QBE Shootout

Despite his best effort to ruin my plan last week, Collin Morikawa finished inside the top 5 and cashed +130. However, my guy, Rory McIlroy borderline finished last. So, for the week, we were up .3 units in the Bahamas. Let’s see what we can do in Naples.

Sam Burns and Billy Horschel to win (+380)

Billy Horschel and Sam Burns walk to the 10th green during the first round of the 2021 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. (Photo: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

There’s a reason why these guys are the betting favorite. Horschel has been in decent form, but Burns, he’s been on a different level. His finishes this season: 1, T-14, T-5, T-7, T-3.

Max Homa and Kevin Kisner to win (+750)

Kevin Kisner putts as Max Homa looks on from the 18th green during the continuation of play before the third round of the BMW Championship. (Photo: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports)

This is going to be the most enjoyable pair to watch on TV over the weekend. They’re going to go out there and have a good time, and I think that will translate into a solid result. Kisner hasn’t had his best stuff so far this season, but his partner already has a win (Fortinet Championship).

Jason Kokrak and Kevin Na to win (+550)

Jason Kokrak (L) and Kevin Na (R) walk to the 10th green during the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am at the Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Shore Course) on February 11, 2016 in Pebble Beach, California. (Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images)

Last time Kokrak teed it up, he won. Na hasn’t played much this season, with a missed cut at the Fortinet Championship and a T-49 at the CJ Cup. However, he was one of the runner-ups last season when he played with Sean O’Hair.

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Twilight 9 podcast: Viktor Hovland wins the Hero, Collin Morikawa’s Sunday collapse, Tiger Woods is grinding, and more

Tiger Woods is back in full grind mode, and you love to see it.

This week on the newest episode of the Twilight 9 podcast, Andy Nesbitt and Riley Hamel discuss Viktor Hovland’s win at the Hero World Challenge. Hovland may have left with the trophy, but that was only possible because of Collin Morikawa’s 41 on the front nine.

Tiger Woods, the tournament host, was on the range almost every day last week. You love to see that. Is he just getting the swing back? Or is he preparing for something?

The fellas also preview the QBE Shootout, the last tournament on the men’s schedule for 2021.

Here are all the different ways you can listen to episode 70 of the Twilight 9 podcast.

Download here: Apple | Spotify

Follow the guys on Twitter: Riley | Andy

Thank you for listening!

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