Tag: Betting NFL Super Bowl

Super Bowl LIV: How many receiving yards will Travis Kelce have?

Looking at prop bets centered around Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce’s receptions and receiving yards in Super Bowl LIV.

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Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is expected to be one of the stars of Super Bowl LIV against the San Francisco 49ers Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Below, we’ll look at BetMGM‘s prop betting odds and lines for Kelce’s reception and yardage projections in the big game, and make our best bets for Super Bowl LIV.

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 11:50 a.m. ET.

Travis Kelce’s Super Bowl LIV receptions: 5.5

After catching 10 of 12 targets for 134 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs’ 51-31 comeback victory over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, Kelce was held to three catches and 30 yards on four targets in the AFC Championship against the Tennessee Titans.

The five-time Pro Bowler totaled 97 receptions, 1,229 yards and five touchdowns in the regular season. He recorded more than five receptions on 10 occasions.

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Only four teams allowed fewer receptions per game to tight ends than the 49ers’ 4.1. Kelce will be heavily targeted by QB Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid as the Chiefs’ No. 1 option in the passing game, but the Niners do a great job of limiting yards after the catch.

I’d expect a drop in his efficiency after averaging 12.8 yards per reception in the regular season, but I’m taking the OVER 5.5 (-147) as Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy scheme to keep him involved, especially on third downs and near the goal line.

Travis Kelce’s Super Bowl LIV receiving yards: 76.5

Photo Credit: Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports

No team allowed fewer receiving yards per game to tight ends in the regular season than the 49ers. They surrendered just 34.5 yards per game to the position. Kelce topped this projection in each of his first four games of the regular season, but he did so just thrice more through the final 12 games and in only one of the Chiefs’ two playoff games.

As mentioned above, I like Kelce to stay involved on key possessions and stay closer to the line of scrimmage. The Niners will wrap him up down the field and limit his yards after the catch. Take the UNDER 76.5 (-111) as Mahomes and his go-to target are forced more into more of a possession-based passing attack.

Also see:

Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Super Bowl LIV prop bet: Who will win MVP of Super Bowl LIV?

Forecasting the odds on who will win Super Bowl LIV MVP, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets.

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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will square off on Sunday night in Super Bowl LIV. It’s a game that’s chock full of prop bets for viewers to wager on. One of the more common prop bets is the winner of Super Bowl MVP, which can be difficult to predict.

Just like the regular-season MVP award, it’s a quarterback-favored honor. However, there have been more than a few instances where a non-quarterback has won it.

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Will this year be one of those cases? First, let’s look at the odds and who’s favored to win it.

  • Patrick Mahomes +110
  • Jimmy Garoppolo +250
  • Raheem Mostert +750
  • George Kittle +1400
  • Travis Kelce +1400
  • Tyreek Hill +1600
  • Damien Williams +1600
  • Nick Bosa +2000
  • Deebo Samuel +2500
  • Emmanuel Sanders +3300
  • Sammy Watkins +3300
  • Tevin Coleman +5000
  • Frank Clark +8000
  • Mecole Hardman +8000
  • Richard Sherman +8000
  • Chris Jones +8000
  • Arik Armstead +10000
  • Tyrann Mathieu +10000
  • DeForest Buckner +10000
  • Dante Pettis +10000
  • Kendrick Bourne +10000
  • Matt Breida +10000

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the award. He has carried the Chiefs offense that ranked fifth in passing and 23rd in rushing, throwing for 26 touchdowns and five interceptions with 4,031 yards in only 14 games.

But when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl MVP, you first have to start with who you believe will win the game. Only one player in the history of the game has won Super Bowl MVP on the losing team (Chuck Howley, Super Bowl V).

So if you feel strongly about the Chiefs knocking off the 49ers on Sunday, Mahomes is a good bet. He’s going to get a ton of opportunities to throw the ball, attempting at least 25 passes in every game he started and finished this season; he averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game in 2019.

Mahomes is most likely going to score at least one touchdown, too. There have only been three games in his career where he didn’t throw at least one touchdown pass, and in one of those games, he scored a rushing touchdown.

The problem with betting Mahomes is that he’s only +110 to win it. That doesn’t provide much upside, because you’ll have to bet $10 just to win $11.

The quarterback on the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo, provides much greater value at +250. But he has only thrown 27 passes in the 49ers’ two wins this postseason with one touchdown and 208 yards. There have been eight games this season where he threw for 200 yards or less.

And as much as quarterbacks are favored for Super Bowl MVP, a non-QB has won it in three of the last six years – most recently with Julian Edelman taking home the award last year. If you’re going to bet on Garoppolo to win, I wouldn’t wager much because there’s a chance the 49ers will run the ball 30 times and only attempt 15 or so passes.

Instead, I’d rather go with someone like Raheem Mostert, who’s +750 to win MVP. He became the favorite option in the 49ers’ crowded backfield after Tevin Coleman injured his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game. Coleman would’ve been listed as questionable if the game were played yesterday, and it’s unclear what his status will be for the Super Bowl.

Watch Coleman’s status closely as the week progresses, because if he’s available, Mostert’s odds decrease – which will be reflected in the betting line.

Other good values for Super Bowl MVP include Nick Bosa (+2000) because of his pass-rushing ability against a team that throws the ball often, Coleman (+5000) if he’s healthy and plays, and even Richard Sherman (+8000) because of how often Mahomes is going to throw the ball. If Sherman has an interception or two, or a pick-six in a low-scoring game, he could win it.

A real long shot who might be worth putting a small wager on is Chiefs receiver/return specialist Mecole Hardman (+8000) because of his ability to make an impact as a returner. If he takes a kickoff or punt back for a touchdown and there aren’t many other scores, he could sneak in and win the award.

It’s not worth betting on a Chiefs defender because unless he forces a fumble on a running back, there isn’t a great chance of one making enough impact plays against the 49ers’ run-first offense.

Follow @camdasilva and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Super Bowl LIV: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and best bets

Previewing the Super Bowl LIV matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets.

The matchup is set for Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, as the San Francisco 49ers (15-3) will do battle with the Kansas City Chiefs (14-4) for the Lombardi Trophy. The big game takes place Sunday, Feb. 2, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the 49ers-Chiefs odds and sports betting lines, while providing NFL betting tips and advice on the Super Bowl LIV matchup.

49ers vs. Chiefs: Super Bowl LIV preview, betting trends and notes

  • Both teams have cruised through the playoffs. The 49ers beat the Minnesota Vikings 27-10 in the Divisional Round before taking down the Green Bay Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship. The Chiefs beat the Houston Texans 51-31 and Tennessee Titans 35-24 in the second and third rounds, respectively.
  • The Chiefs are riding a seven-game winning streak dating back to Week 11. The Niners have won four straight games.
  • Kansas City played one neutral site game this season, beating the Los Angeles Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City in Week 11.
  • Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw for a season-low 77 yards while completing six of just eight pass attempts against the Packers in the NFC Championship. The 49ers didn’t need more out of him, as RB Raheem Mostert rushed 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns.

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  • Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes played the hero in the AFC Championship to get Kansas City to its first Super Bowl since 1969 (SB IV). The 2018 MVP completed 23 of 35 pass attempts for 294 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for a team-high 53 yards and another score.
  • San Francisco’s last Super Bowl appearance was Super Bowl XLVII, which it lost 34-31 to the Baltimore Ravens. The Niners last Super Bowl win was Super Bowl XXIX. They beat the San Diego Chargers 49-26, with QB Steve Young being named MVP.
  • The two teams last met in Week 3 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs won 38-27. Garoppolo passed for 251 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Mahomes went 314-3-0.
  • The Niners ranked second in the NFL with 29.9 points per game in the regular season. The Chiefs were fifth with 28.2 PPG.
  • The Chiefs (19.3) and 49ers (19.4) ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in points per game allowed.

49ers vs. Chiefs: Super Bowl LIV odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, Jan. 20, at 8:20 a.m. ET.

Prediction

49ers 32, Chiefs 29

Moneyline (?)

The Chiefs (-118) are favorites for a sixth consecutive game as the official home team in Super Bowl LIV. The 49ERS (+100) are even-money as slight dogs, despite their two 17-point wins in the playoffs. Both teams were 3-1 straight up against cross-conference opponents this season. San Francisco won those games by an average of 13.2 points per game, while Kansas City won by 5.8 PPG against four NFC opponents.

I like the Niners as the slight underdogs. While the Chiefs were able to contain the NFL’s leading rusher in Titans RB Derrick Henry (69 yards, one TD) in the AFC Championship, the 49ers have a multi-headed attack with Mostert, Tevin Coleman (shoulder) and Matt Breida. San Francisco also led the NFL with just 169.2 passing yards allowed per game in the regular season and will force the Chiefs to turn to their little-used rushing game.

Back the underdog in Super Bowl LIV.

Against the Spread (?)

The NINERS (+1.5, -111) offer less value on the spread while being spotted just 1.5 points. The moneyline is the more profitable play with a $10 bet returning $10 in profit, while the same wager here fetches a return of just $9. If you need the extra insurance in case of a 1-point Chiefs’ win, back San Francisco on the spread as a safer play.

San Francisco was 3-1 against the spread in games against AFC opponents this year. Kansas City was just 2-2 ATS in those games. The two-week layoff favors a Chiefs side that went 6-4-1 ATS against teams with equal rest this year, while the Niners were a league-worst 2-5 ATS when playing on equal rest, but the 49ers were 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season.

Over/Under (?)

Those who didn’t enjoy Super Bowl LIII and the 13-3 win for the New England Patriots over the Los Angeles Rams should get their redemption this year. Back the OVER 52.5 (-118) with both teams happy to try their luck in a shootout. The two teams have scored at least 26 points in each of their last four games.

Both teams have hit the Under just eight times through 18 games. KC has topped the projected totals in each of its two playoff games. San Francisco went 1-1.

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Esten’s 2019 NFL betting record: 58-51

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Should you bet on the New England Patriots to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the New England Patriots’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

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For most of the 2019 season, it appeared the New England Patriots were locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC as they rode their hot defense to another 12-win season. After a colossal collapse against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, the Patriots will now have to play on Wild Card weekend against the red-hot Tennesee Titans.

Given their history, it’s hard to count out the Patriots as long as they are still in the playoffs. Below are the reasons you should or shouldn’t bet on the New England Patriots to win their seventh Super Bowl.

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 11:45 a.m. ET.

Why You Should Bet On The Patriots to win Super Bowl LIV

(Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIV: +1200 

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The case for why you should bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl is simple; head coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady. The two are nearly unstoppable in the playoffs and have proven time and time again they can flip the switch when it matters the most. They have shown they can go on the road and win, something many of the other AFC playoff contenders can’t say.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Patriots have the best defense in football, allowing just over 14 points per game this season. New England can create takeaways at will and give their offense short fields with which to work. While it may not always look pretty, it’s awfully tough to not bet on the Patriots to come out of the AFC this season. And with their current odds, they actually present some excellent value, as well. Their +1200 odds to win Super Bowl LIV seem almost too good to be true.

Why You Shouldn’t Bet On The Patriots to win Super Bowl LIV

(Photo Credit: David Butler II – USA TODAY Sports)

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Patriots to win Super Bowl LIV would return a profit of $120 should the Patriots win the Super Bowl.

Despite six Super Bowl wins over the last 20 seasons, the Patriots have never made it to the Super Bowl, let alone win one when they were forced to play on Wild Card weekend. It’s just too difficult to make it through the AFC gauntlet when you have to play two or three games on the road in order to make the Super Bowl.

On top of that, the 2019 Patriots don’t resemble anything we are accustomed to seeing. The Patriots have scored more than 24 points just once in their last 10 games, and their offense can be shut down relatively easily. It’s also concerning how Brady appears to be in the worst slump of his career as he has a passer rating of only 80.8 over the last eight games of the season.

While it’s hard to count out Belichick and Brady, this does appear to be one of their weaker teams in recent memory. But don’t be surprised if New England finds a way to come out of the AFC for the fourth-straight season.

Want action on this bet? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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