Super Bowl LIV: Why you should bet 49ers to beat Chiefs

Assessing the San Francisco 49ers chances of beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, with NFL betting picks, tips and best bets.

After a 4-12 season in 2018, the San Franciso 49ers are just one win away from capturing their sixth Lombardi Trophy at Super Bowl LIV in Miami Sunday. Standing in their way are the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, who have one of the most dangerous offenses in NFL history.

Despite the 49ers finishing the season at 13-3 and blowing through the NFC side of the playoff bracket, they are slight underdogs in Super Bowl LIV. However, that could prove to be foolish as the 49ers have continually proven they are the best team in the NFL. Here are three reasons why should bet on the 49ers to win Super Bowl LIV.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

There’s no stopping the 49ers offense

There has been a lot of talk about how good the Chiefs offense is and rightfully so; however, that ignores the fact the 49ers actually had a better offense this season as they averaged 29.9 points per game to the Chiefs’ 28.2 PPG. Additionally, no team in the NFL had more plays of 20 or more yards than the 49ers (43) this season, as they are one of the fastest teams in the NFL.

If this game happens to get into a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair, have no fear of the 49ers failing to keep up. They scored 31 or more points in nine of their 18 games this season, including two playoff contests. This is an offense with no problem putting points on the board via the air or on the ground.

Defense wins championships

You can certainly make the case that both offenses are comparable, but the same can’t be said about the other side of the ball. San Franciso allowed 19.4 points per game in the regular season, all while compiling 48 sacks and 27 takeaways.

The 49ers have an elite pass-rush and a secondary that knows how to create big plays. Their defense will be easily the toughest unit the Chiefs have dealt with all season long.

The 49ers will control the lines

There aren’t many teams in the NFL that can match up well with the Chiefs given their talent on offense. However, the 49ers are one of those few teams with the personnel to match up with the AFC champions.

The way to beat the Chiefs is to pressure QB Patrick Mahomes. Due to his mobility and his offensive line, that hasn’t happened very often. The 49ers have the pass-rushers up front to make life difficult for Mahomes. If San Franciso can get pressure with their front four, like they have all season, that could go a long way in slowing down the Chiefs’ offensive attack.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ defense has been hit-or-miss this season. While they slowed down Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship, dealing with Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan’s wide-zone rushing attack is a whole different animal.

During the 2019 season, the Chiefs allowed 128.2 rushing yards per game. That could be a problem against a 49ers team running the ball at will against just about anyone. If the Niners can run the ball effectively like they did against the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, this game could turn into a blowout in San Franciso’s favor.

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

How to bet on the coin toss in Super Bowl LIV

How should you bet on the Super Bowl LIV coin toss?

[jwplayer hDNWPlIL]

One of the most popular prop bets of the Super Bowl will be the coin toss.

It’s also one of the most difficult to predict because it’s purely luck. Neither the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs will have any impact on the flip, other than the fact that San Francisco (the visiting team) will be the one calling heads or tails; and, unless you’re superstitious, that doesn’t impact which side of the coin will be face up.

So should you bet on the Super Bowl coin toss? And if so, is heads or tails the better call?

The former is completely up to the bettor, while the answer to the latter can be surmised by looking at past history. For starters, though, let’s take a look at BetMGM‘s betting lines for heads and tails – which are predictably the same:

Heads -104
Tails -104

New to sports betting? -104 juice means if you bet $10 on either heads or tails, you’ll profit $9.62.

Looking back at past Super Bowls, tails has come up more often.

In the big game’s history, the coin toss result has been tails 28 times and heads 25 times. More recently, though, tails has been the better pick.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

Since Super Bowl XLVIII, which was played in 2014, tails has come up five times in six years. The only time in that span heads came up was in Super Bowl LII between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons.

Right before that six-year stretch, however, heads was riding a hot streak. From Super Bowl XLIII to XLVII, heads won five years in a row, and six of seven years.

The nine years before that, tails dominated. From Super Bowl XXXII to XL, tails won eight out of nine times.

Also see:

So in the last 22 years, it’s been all about the streaks. Heads and tails haven’t alternated in four straight years since 1994-1997. If heads wins Sunday, it’ll be the first time the call has alternated four years in a row since then.

If you’re going to bet on the toss, there’s really no strategy. It’s all personal preference, but if you like to ride hot streaks, tails is probably the better pick.

After all, tails never fails.

Want some action on the coin toss or other prop bets? Visit BetMGM and place your bets on the big game.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl LIV odds: Kansas City slight favorite over San Francisco

Super Bowl LIV is here, and the Kansas City Chiefs are slight favorites over the San Francisco 49ers. What do these sports betting odds and lines mean?

[jwplayer 2XgmjwzG]

Get your popcorn ready, Super Bowl LIV is here. Sports bettors rejoice at what should be the largest sports betting day of the year, while the oddsmakers have made this year’s Super Bowl odds very, very close across the board.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the ever-so-slight 1.5-point favorite entering the matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. The two teams meet Sunday, Feb. 2, at 6:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.

Oddsmakers at BetMGM sportsbook haven’t changed the odds much around this game since it hit the board over a week ago. The Chiefs, with a moneyline of -121, have implied odds of 54.75% to win Super Bowl LIV. The 49ers, meanwhile, are at +105, making them slight underdogs from a betting point of view. San Francisco has an implied 47.78% win probability.

In other words, this one has some razor-thin margins to work around on the base sports betting odds.

Just as interesting is the projected points total. BetMGM oddsmakers have the base line at 54.5 points scored, with a steady -110 tax on both sides.

Also see: Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide

Super Bowl LIV Betting Odds

Are you new to sports betting? No problem, we’ve got your back:

A $100 moneyline wager on the Chiefs would return a profit of $82.64 with a Kansas City Super Bowl LIV championship. The same $100 wager on the 49ers would return a profit of $105 should they come out on top.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

If you’re betting against the spread, the 1.5-point margin basically puts you in a moneyline-like betting situation because there’s next to no wiggle room. For the Chiefs, at -1.5 (-106), a $100 wager is almost at even money, paying a profit of $94.34 with a Kansas City victory over San Francisco by 2 or more points.

On the flip side, San Francisco +1.5 (-112) would pay $89.29 profit if the Niners lose by just 1 point or win the game outright as underdogs. If you’re considering betting the spread, utilizing one of many alternate lines BetMGM offers would be the route to go to find a better return for either team. After all, it’s tough to bank on a one-point loss, as that doesn’t provide you much insurance. If you think the 49ers win outright, you’re better off placing your bet on the ML, which is at plus-money ($105 ML profit vs. $89.29 ATS profit on a $100 bet).

As for the Over/Under, at -110 juice on the 54.5 points, a $100 wager on either side of the line returns a $90.91 profit. For the Over to hit, both teams would need to combine to score at least 55 points during Super Bowl LIV. For an Under wager to win, both teams would need to combine to score 54 points or less.

Want some action on this game? Visit BetMGM and place your bets on the big game now.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

How to bet Super Bowl LIV: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs betting guide

Looking at the multitude of ways to bet Super Bowl LIV, and how to get NFL action on the San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup.

[jwplayer 2XgmjwzG]

Legal sportsbooks across the USA have rolled out the red carpet this week for those looking to get their NFL betting action on the Super Bowl LIV matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Our friends at BetMGM have a wide array of sports betting options for the big game, ranging from the outright winner to the result of the opening coin toss and everything in between and beyond.

Viewers and bettors don’t even need to be fans of either of this year’s participants to get a piece of the pie. Whether you’re looking to dip your toes in the water or dive headfirst into the sports betting pool, we at SportsbookWire have you covered. Here’s everything you need to know about betting Super Bowl LIV:

Super Bowl LIV betting: Outrights

As with any other game, the three main bet types are the Moneyline, Against the spread and the Over/Under. Here, we’re looking for the game winner, the winner against the points handicap and the total points scored in the game. The same betting logic applies as to any standard game, and you should be sticking by the same research methods which got you here.

Don’t get bogged down in the added volume of analysis and predictions around the Super Bowl. Everyone has a prediction. Look for values and if the line seems too close to call, step away and simply avoid the bet.

Be sure to investigate alternate lines, as well. The Super Bowl, like most games, brings with it a broad array of secondary options, such as lines for each half or quarter. Like the underdog to win the game outright? Bet them on more profitable lines to win by 1-6 points or exactly 3 points. These secondary lines can often be overlooked by the sportsbooks and are great sources of value as the betting public generally looks only at the principle lines and odds.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

Super Bowl LIV betting: Prop bets

Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox – USA TODAY Sports

Player props

There’s no better way to stay involved in every single play of the Super Bowl than with player props. Options exist for the first touchdown of the game, last touchdown, total touchdowns and yardage totals for most offensive players involved. Defensive players aren’t left out, either. Get action on the number of sacks recorded by key defenders, or “will they or won’t they” record an interception.

As usual, quarterbacks are the stars of the show. Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo will be front and center in head-to-head competitions for statistical production, or on individual props estimating their yardage, touchdown and interception totals.

The main attraction, of course, is for Super Bowl MVP. Most players involved in the game are listed with corresponding odds from Mahomes’ +110 as the odds-on favorite to longshot Chiefs P Dustin Colquitt at +50000. Be sure to research the trends and play the odds. A QB has been named the MVP of 29 of the 53 Super Bowls to date.

Also see:

Team props

If you don’t like the risk of the player props, despite more profitable odds, team props can be the better route to take. These look at the precise winning margin, which team will score first, last or most often, as well as total touchdowns or field goals for either side.

Bets can be broken down by team or combine the two sides. Look at the season-long trends for both teams to get an idea of how many times they run, pass or punt per game. How many sacks did they record and how many points did they give up on average?

Keep in mind, the Super Bowl features the best teams from the AFC and NFC. Make sure to discount outlier stats racked up against an inferior, bottom-feeding opponent early in the season.

Game props

Here, bettors can get action right from the get-go by betting on the result of the coin toss. From there, bet between the first play of the game being a run or pass, the first scoring play being a field goal, touchdown or safety.

Game props can also look at total penalties in the game or which penalty will be called first, or most often. Keep checking BetMGM throughout the week, as more and more betting options are being posted as we near Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

With all these bets, it’s important to remember the odds at the sportsbook are reflective of which side is getting the most betting action. The Super Bowl typically draws in bets in hopes of high-scoring exciting games. Always be on the lookout for the best values. The most likely result isn’t always the most exciting. Know when to be contrarian and bet against the public.

Super Bowl LIV betting: Bankroll management

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports

Despite all the build-up and hype around the event, it’s important to remember for betting purposes the Super Bowl is just another game. Sure, it marks the end of the NFL season, but sports bettors still have plenty of options throughout the year and the MLB season is just around the corner.

While there are more betting options available than any other game thus far this season, the size of your wagers shouldn’t be any different than they’ve been up to this point. Whatever your standard betting unit may be (i.e. $1, $5, $10 or $100) you should still be sticking to the same number of units for any wager as you did in Weeks 1 through 17.

Also, know your budget going into this. Carefully peruse the available betting options, take notes of bets which may be of interest, and whittle down your final choices rather than placing bets on the fly. It can be easy to get sidetracked while “window shopping.” Look for the best values and be selective.

Want action on the big game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

NFL Prop Bet Payday: 7 Super Bowl LIV player props to bank on

Analyzing seven Super Bowl LIV player props that should be exploited for easy wins.

The Super Bowl that many thought they were going to see has happened, as the pass-happy Kansas City Chiefs offense is countered by a San Francisco 49ers rush offense that has been nothing short of dominant in the postseason.

Here are seven yardage-related Super Bowl LIV prop bets we’re going to be all over:

Saint Patrick

Photo Credit: Paul Rutherford – USA TODAY Sports

The Over/Under on passing yards for Patrick Mahomes is 295½ (-125 over, 100 under), giving the impression that they want bettors to take the under. In his two postseason games, Mahomes has thrown 35 passes and completed 23 in both – throwing for 321 and 294 yards. It’s a big number to hit, but Mahomes won’t get conservative against an attacking defense that leaves cornerbacks on an island. Take the Over.

King James Version

Photo Credit: Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports

If you combine both of his postseason games, Jimmy Garoppolo has had a number similar, albeit short, to his passing yardage Over/Under of 238½ (-112 for both the Over and Under). In two games, he has COMBINED to throw just 27 times for 208 yards in eight quarters.

The 49ers are going to try to do what got them to the Super Bowl and not re-invent the wheel in the biggest game. The only logical way Garoppolo hits the over is if the 49ers fall behind by double digits early and forced to throw. That hasn’t happened yet in the postseason; they will try to establish the run and keep it established. Take the Under.

King of the Hill

Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports

There is no more dangerous receiver in the league in terms of big plays as Tyreek Hill. Because of his big-play ability, he consistently gets a big number and this week in no exception at 74½ yards (-112 for both the Over and Under). But, the reality of his situation is that he hasn’t hit that number in his last seven games, posting weekly yardage totals of 0, 55, 62, 67, 41 and 67. The 49ers may try to let cornerback Richard Sherman go one-on-one with him, but more likely is rolling a safety his way and making Mahomes look to other receivers. Take the Under.

Curious George

Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports

Two things go against George Kittle’s Over/Under of 70½ yards (-112 on both sides). First is that the 49ers have found the secret to their success is eating up the clock with long drives featuring an onslaught of rushes instead of passes. Kittle has just four receptions for 35 yards in two postseason games. Second, if the Chiefs defense is going to pay special attention to any receiver on the 49ers, it will be Kittle who gets double-teams. Take the Under.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

Andy’s Travis

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been up-and-down over the last month or so because teams that don’t double him get burned and teams that do have the ability to shut him down. He has an Over/Under for receiving yards of 76½ (-112 on both sides). The feeling is that the 49ers are going to pay special attention to the deep portion of the field to prevent the splash play that can turn the tide with one throw. As a result, Kelce is likely going to settle into soft spots of the intermediate zone and catch a handful of passes or more, which should allow him to hit the Over.

I’ll Buy a Vowel, Pat

Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson – USA TODAY Sports

49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk is the world’s worst “Wheel of Fortune” puzzle name, but has a very attainable receiving yardage over/under of 12½ (-112 on both). The problem is that Juszczyk has had a role in the postseason offense, but it has been as a blocker. He likely would have to catch at least two check-down passes to hit 13 receiving yards and he has topped that number just once in the last six games and has no receptions in four of the six. Take the Under.

Where There’s a Williams, There’s a Way

The Over/Under on Damien Williams’ rushing total is 49½ yards (-118 for the Over, -106 for the Under). It’s a solid number because in two postseason games, Williams has yardage totals of 47 and 45 yards. But, against the Titans, he rushed 17 times. San Francisco’s defense is going to key on the downfield passing game and won’t be stacking the box. If Kansas City gets a lead, the Chiefs will look to run the ball more. This is a very attainable number, especially if Williams can hit the 15-attempt mark. Take the Over.

Run, Raheem, Run

Photo Credit: David Kohl – USA TODAY Sports

Against the Green Bay Packers, Raheem Mostert was almost unstoppable, rushing 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns. In the 49ers first playoff game against Minnesota, Tevin Coleman went over 100 yards. If San Francisco is going to have a chance of slowing Kansas City’s offense down, it will mean running the ball early and often. While Mostert’s straight Over/Under is just 60½ yards, there is an enhanced bet that pays out +450 if he tops 100½. That’s a nice return, especially with Coleman recovering from a significant shoulder injury that could greatly limit his playing time availability. Take the Over and hope for a big run or two to pad his stats.

Want some action in any of these prop bets? Visit BetMGM and place your bets on the big game.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

Super Bowl LIV: Which players will score a touchdown in the game?

Looking at the best prop bet picks to score the a touchdown in Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.

One of the most popular prop bets every year for the Super Bowl is picking which players will score a touchdown in the game. Over the years, there have been some surprising touchdown scorers, such as Malik Jackson, Gary Russell, Brandon LaFell, and, of course, L.J. Smith.

With Super Bowl LIV just a few days away, here are some of our favorite picks to score a touchdown on Sunday night:

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (+105)

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. (Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports)

The best bet to score a touchdown on Sunday has to be Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce, who has now scored five touchdowns in his last five playoff games. When the Chiefs get close to the end zone, they often will target their big tight end. Andy Reid will also draw up plays for Kelce as a wildcat runner, making him even more dangerous in the red zone. Consider him basically a lock to reach the end zone at least once against the 49ers.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (+110)

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill. (Photo credit Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports)

While Tyreek Hill has yet to have a monster playoff game during his NFL career (no games with at least 90 yards receiving), Super Bowl LIV seems like the perfect opportunity for him to shine. In the last two seasons with Patrick Mahomes, Hill has scored 20 touchdowns in 28 contests. When Mahomes is looking to throw the ball deep, you can bet he is searching for Hill.

Given that 49ers have an older secondary, look for the Chiefs to attack them down the field and for Hill to have multiple chances at scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl.

49ers TE George Kittle (+120)

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle. (Photo credit: Stan Szeto – USA TODAY Sports)

Arguably the best non-quarterback in this game on Sunday is 49ers tight end George Kittle, who was named first-team All-Pro this season. While Kittle has never scored more than five touchdowns in a season, the team may need to rely on him to do some of the heavy lifting on offense in this game. Look for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to target his superstar tight end early and often during the Super Bowl.

49ers WR Deebo Samuel (+200)

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. (Photo credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)

Much like the Chiefs with Hill, the 49ers do everything in their power to make sure rookie receiver Deebo Samuel touches the ball plenty. He’s a dynamic player who is explosive with the ball in his hands. During the 2019 season, Samuel scored six touchdowns on just 71 offensive touches. If this game turns into a shootout like many people expect, look for Samuel to get quite a few looks inside the red zone.

Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman (+390)

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman. (Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing – USA TODAY Sports)

If you are searching for better odds on a touchdown bet, look no further than the Chiefs’ Mecole Hardman, like Samuel a rookie tight end. His role in the offense continues to grow and he has already proven himself as a return threat. In the team’s two playoff games, he racked up 228 kickoff return yards. He has outstanding speed, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the rookie took a jet sweep for a touchdown or caught a bomb from Mahomes at some point in the game. At nearly 4-1 odds, Hardman is a fun long-shot prop bet.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Marcus_Mosher and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship, and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

Super Bowl LIV prop bet: Who will win MVP of Super Bowl LIV?

Forecasting the odds on who will win Super Bowl LIV MVP, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets.

[jwplayer 2XgmjwzG]

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will square off on Sunday night in Super Bowl LIV. It’s a game that’s chock full of prop bets for viewers to wager on. One of the more common prop bets is the winner of Super Bowl MVP, which can be difficult to predict.

Just like the regular-season MVP award, it’s a quarterback-favored honor. However, there have been more than a few instances where a non-quarterback has won it.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

Will this year be one of those cases? First, let’s look at the odds and who’s favored to win it.

Patrick Mahomes +110
Jimmy Garoppolo +250
Raheem Mostert +750
George Kittle +1400
Travis Kelce +1400
Tyreek Hill +1600
Damien Williams +1600
Nick Bosa +2000
Deebo Samuel +2500
Emmanuel Sanders +3300
Sammy Watkins +3300
Tevin Coleman +5000
Frank Clark +8000
Mecole Hardman +8000
Richard Sherman +8000
Chris Jones +8000
Arik Armstead +10000
Tyrann Mathieu +10000
DeForest Buckner +10000
Dante Pettis +10000
Kendrick Bourne +10000
Matt Breida +10000

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the award. He has carried the Chiefs offense that ranked fifth in passing and 23rd in rushing, throwing for 26 touchdowns and five interceptions with 4,031 yards in only 14 games.

But when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl MVP, you first have to start with who you believe will win the game. Only one player in the history of the game has won Super Bowl MVP on the losing team (Chuck Howley, Super Bowl V).

So if you feel strongly about the Chiefs knocking off the 49ers on Sunday, Mahomes is a good bet. He’s going to get a ton of opportunities to throw the ball, attempting at least 25 passes in every game he started and finished this season; he averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game in 2019.

Mahomes is most likely going to score at least one touchdown, too. There have only been three games in his career where he didn’t throw at least one touchdown pass, and in one of those games, he scored a rushing touchdown.

The problem with betting Mahomes is that he’s only +110 to win it. That doesn’t provide much upside, because you’ll have to bet $10 just to win $11.

The quarterback on the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo, provides much greater value at +250. But he has only thrown 27 passes in the 49ers’ two wins this postseason with one touchdown and 208 yards. There have been eight games this season where he threw for 200 yards or less.

And as much as quarterbacks are favored for Super Bowl MVP, a non-QB has won it in three of the last six years – most recently with Julian Edelman taking home the award last year. If you’re going to bet on Garoppolo to win, I wouldn’t wager much because there’s a chance the 49ers will run the ball 30 times and only attempt 15 or so passes.

Instead, I’d rather go with someone like Raheem Mostert, who’s +750 to win MVP. He became the favorite option in the 49ers’ crowded backfield after Tevin Coleman injured his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game. Coleman would’ve been listed as questionable if the game were played yesterday, and it’s unclear what his status will be for the Super Bowl.

Watch Coleman’s status closely as the week progresses, because if he’s available, Mostert’s odds decrease – which will be reflected in the betting line.

Other good values for Super Bowl MVP include Nick Bosa (+2000) because of his pass-rushing ability against a team that throws the ball often, Coleman (+5000) if he’s healthy and plays, and even Richard Sherman (+8000) because of how often Mahomes is going to throw the ball. If Sherman has an interception or two, or a pick-six in a low-scoring game, he could win it.

A real long shot who might be worth putting a small wager on is Chiefs receiver/return specialist Mecole Hardman (+8000) because of his ability to make an impact as a returner. If he takes a kickoff or punt back for a touchdown and there aren’t many other scores, he could sneak in and win the award.

It’s not worth betting on a Chiefs defender because unless he forces a fumble on a running back, there isn’t a great chance of one making enough impact plays against the 49ers’ run-first offense.

Follow @camdasilva and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

Super Bowl prop bets: Who will score the last TD of Super Bowl LIV?

Looking at the best prop bet picks to score the last touchdown of Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.

[jwplayer 2XgmjwzG]

The Super Bowl brings with it huge betting action, with traditional game bets and props. One such bet is on which player will score the last touchdown of the game.

Here are the odds for each possible player:

San Francisco 49ers

RB Raheem Mostert +650
TE George Kittle +850
RB Matt Breida +1200
RB Tevin Coleman +1200
WR Deebo Samuel +1300
WR Emmanuel Sanders +1300
WR Kendrick Bourne +1600
49ers defense/special teams +2100
RB Jeff Wilson +2100
FB Kyle Juszczyk +3900
QB Jimmy Garoppolo +5000
WR Rickie James +6500
RE Ross Dwelley +8000
TE Levine Toilolo +10000
WR Dante Pettis +10000
WR Jordan Matthews +10000

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Damien Williams +650
WR Tyreek Hill +750
TE Travis Kelce +800
WR Sammy Watkins +1500
QB Patrick Mahomes +2000
WR Mecole Hardman +2300
Chiefs defense/special teams +2400
WR Demarcus Robinson +3100
RB Darwin Thompson +2800
RB LeSean McCoy +4500
TE Blake Bell +7000
WR Byron Pringle +6500
TE Deon Yelder +7000
FB Anthony Sherman +10000
There are also +10000 odds for no touchdown in the game at all.

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday, Jan. 26, at 6:00 p.m. ET.

Which player should get your bet? That will depend on the type of game you think the Super Bowl will be.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

First of all, don’t even worry about the no-touchdown prop. Both teams will score touchdowns.

I anticipate a close game with both teams making plays in the final quarter, meaning the biggest playmakers will be the ones making plays.

For the 49ers, that means Mostert, Kittle or Samuel. For the Chiefs, that would be Williams, Kelce or Hill.

As all players will provide a big payout — even the shortest odds of +650 will win $65 in profit for every $10 wagered. As such, hedging becomes very easy.

Two sleeper picks would be the 49ers’ Kendrick Bourne and the Chiefs’ defense. Bourne has had a postseason score. Jimmy Garoppolo can be prone to turn the ball over, and if the 49ers are behind late in the game, it is highly possible someone like safety Tyrann Mathieu could pick off a pass and return it for a score to put the game away. There could also be a strip-sack and fumble returned for a touchdown.

If you have $100 to bet on this prop, here is how I would go:

$20 each on Mostert, Kittle, Williams and Kelce
$10 on the KC defense
$10 on Samuel

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

Super Bowl LIV Prop Bets: Which player will score first TD?

Looking at the best prop bet picks to score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.

[jwplayer 2XgmjwzG]

Super Bowl LIV is at the doorstep as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs prepare to do battle at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. All week here at SportsbookWire we’ll be breaking down the most enticing prop bets for the big game at BetMGM. Below, we’re looking at which players from the 49ers and Chiefs are the best bets to score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIV.

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday, Jan. 26, at 5:45 p.m. ET.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, 49ers (+1800)

Six 49ers have lower odds than Bourne to score the game’s opening touchdown, including WRs Deebo Samuel (+1300) and Emmanuel Sanders (+1300), and TE George Kittle (+850). Kittle (19) and Samuel (8) each have more red-zone targets than Bourne, but he leads the team with five red-zone touchdowns off of just six targets.

Bourne scored the game’s opening touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round. If the Chiefs can stop the Niners near the goal line on their opening drive, Bourne will very much come into play.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Kendrick Bourne to score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIV will return a profit of $180.

Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs (+2200)

Hardman has nearly a 50-50 chance of being the first player to get his hands on the football in Super Bowl LIV as the primary kick returner of the Chiefs. He has a postseason long of a 58-yard kickoff return against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, and he had a 104-yard touchdown return in the regular season.

If he doesn’t get to the end zone on a return, he also had six receiving touchdowns this season and a long reception of 83 yards as a rookie. Only two Chiefs receivers had more receptions of 20-plus yards than his nine in the regular season.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

Jeff Wilson, RB, 49ers (+2500)

49ers RB Tevin Coleman (+1100) led the team with five red-zone rushing scores this season, but Wilson was right behind with four. Coleman is expected to play in Super Bowl LIV, but he’s battling through a dislocated shoulder suffered in the NFC Championship. Raheem Mostert is coming off a big four-touchdown game and Matt Breida should also get some more work behind Coleman, but Wilson is worth a small play in hopes of a goal-line plunge.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Chiefs (+4000)

McCoy hasn’t played since Week 15, but it’s hard to see head coach Andy Reid keeping his long-time running back out of the Super Bowl. Should he draw into the lineup, he’ll be fresh and motivated, and he led the Chiefs in both red-zone carries (18) and touchdowns (four) this season. He’s a nice hedge against the big-play threat of Hardman and a $10 bet fetches $400 in profit.

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]