Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati: Staff Predictions

Who wins Saturday and why?

Brian Kelly is in his 12th season as the head coach at Notre Dame and this Saturday’s game will be just the third regular season contest his Irish have hosted as a top-10 team against another top-10 squad.  The previous was a 38-17 win over No. 8 Stanford as Ian Book made his first Notre Dame Stadium start in 2018 while the other was last year’s double-overtime thriller that ended with an upset of No. 1 Clemson.

I’m not sure the odds you could have gotten when Kelly was hired that he’d win more games than any coach in program history, but the odds that he’d be taking on his former program in a 2021 top-10 matchup would have been even that much greater.

So what ultimately happens in this Saturday showdown between a pair of top-10 teams?  Here’s what the Fighting Irish Wire staff sees:

ESPN FPI projects Notre Dame-Cincinnati

On a scale of 1-10 how confident are you in a Notre Dame victory vs. Cincinnati?

When No. 9 Notre Dame hosts No. 7 Cincinnati it’ll be one of the most impactful games all season in terms of the College Football Playoff (CFP).  Whichever team ends up winning will have gotten through their seemingly most difficult opponent without a loss.

If either is to earn a CFP bid this season they’ll have to go undefeated. Cincinnati for obvious reasons, seeing as they did last year but were essentially capped by the committee as multiple two-loss teams still finished the regular season rankings ahead of the Bearcats.

So what happens Saturday?  Plenty of experts have made their predictions and ours at Fighting Irish Wire will drop soon but here is what ESPN’s FPI says:

ESPN FPI Projected Winner: Notre Dame at 57.9 percent

The FPI currently ranks Notre Dame 13th nationally while the Bearcats check in at 17.  Somehow Clemson ranks fifth despite being 2-2 and having scored just five touchdowns in three games against FBS opponents this season.

Related: How ESPN’s FPI sees Notre Dame’s remaining eight games

Next: Other Notre Dame-Cincinnati Preview Content to be sure to check out

Cincinnati reveals uniforms for Notre Dame showdown

Fan of these?

For just the third time during Brian Kelly’s 12 seasons at Notre Dame the Fighting Irish will host a game between two teams ranked in the top-10 this Saturday as Cincinnati makes the trip to South Bend.  It’s arguably the biggest game in the history of the Bearcats program and could be a huge step towards crashing the College Football Playoff (CFP) party.

Cincinnati is another Under Armour program and on Thursday took to social media to show off the uniforms they’ll wear as they head to Notre Dame Stadium this weekend.

I don’t really understand the whole lightsaber thing during the presentation as it’s not like wearing white uniforms for a road game is unique.  I don’t love that the helmet, jersey, and pants are three different base colors as I’m usually more for finding two base colors and sticking with them.

This now concludes the fashion police portion of Fighting Irish Wire for this week.  Enjoy the game.

Related:

ESPN FPI projects all eight remaining Notre Dame games

Notre Dame releases depth chart for test with No. 8 Cincinnati

Notre Dame running back returns to lineup for Cincinnati showdown

5 things Luke Fickell said ahead of Notre Dame-Cincinnati

Notre Dame-Cincinnati: Running back statistical comps

Rain on the way for Notre Dame-Cincinnati?

Kirk Herbstreit ranks college football’s top-six teams

5 things Luke Fickell said ahead of Notre Dame-Cincinnati showdown

Do you think Luke Fickell will be at Cincinnati for the long haul?

Catholics vs. Chili?

OK, maybe not every game needs a name but that doesn’t mean No. 7 Notre Dame’s clash with No. 8 Cincinnati this weekend isn’t huge.  For the Irish it would appear to be the toughest remaining test this season, not to say there aren’t challenges in the weeks and months to come.

For Cincinnati it’d be the marquee win that they must have if they hope to crash the College Football Playoff party at the end of the year.

Ahead of Saturday’s huge matchup here the five most important things Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell had to say:

Rain on the way for Notre Dame-Cincinnati showdown

Who does rain on Saturday favor: Notre Dame or Cincinnati?

No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 Cincinnati are set to meet in a showdown Saturday that has major College Football Playoff (CFP) implications. The winner doesn’t necessarily have a free path to the CFP but each will be clear of their biggest obstacles.

What will the weather be like as Cincinnati makes their first trip to Notre Dame Stadium for what is likely the biggest game in program history?

A perfect temperature but perhaps a chance of rain for part of the contest according to Meteorologist Matt Yarosewick of WNDU:

Gone are the days of natural grass at Notre Dame Stadium which means wet conditions no longer tear up the track quite like they used to.  However, the elements can still make for slipping issues and it more difficult to hold onto the football.

Related:

Notre Dame releases depth chart for test with No. 7 Cincinnati

Notre Dame’s 2022 football schedule nearly finalized

Notre Dame’s all-time winningest football coaches

Kirk Herbstreit releases new top-six rankings

Herbstreit releases his latest college football top-six

What is your current top 6?

Kirk Herbstreit likes to release his version of the College Football Playoff (CFP) standings each weekend following completion of play.  Each week he lists who he feels are the nation’s top-four teams and then the next two best, just like the CFP committee does on Tuesday nights as the season goes on.

Herbstreit released his top-six overall teams through the first four weeks of college football this season and despite an impressive showing over Wisconsin, the 4-0 Notre Dame Fighting Irish aren’t included.  Notre Dame’s opponent this weekend however is.

Here is how Herbstreit ranked the top-six squads:

1. Alabama

2. Georgia

3. Oregon

4. Penn State

It’s hard to argue as Alabama is Alabama, Georgia has the win over Clemson, Oregon has the road win over Ohio State, and Penn State has a road win over Wisconsin as well as a home victory over Auburn.

The next two up are a bit more controversial as Herbstreit ranks them the following:

5.  Florida

6. Cincinnati

Florida’s one loss is the most impressive loss by any squad as they came very close to forcing overtime against unstoppable Alabama.  Cincinnati overcame a slow start at Indiana to roll to a victory two weeks ago before having last week off.

The best part of this if you’re an upset Notre Dame fan?

The Irish have a chance in their own house to change them this Saturday.

Related:

Notre Dame releases depth chart for test with No. 7 Cincinnati

Notre Dame’s 2022 football schedule nearly finalized

Notre Dame’s all-time winningest football coaches

Best photos from Notre Dame’s 41-13 win over Wisconsin

 

No. 7 Notre Dame’s depth chart ahead of No. 8 Cincinnati

What are your initial thoughts about the showdown with Cincinnati?

No. 8 Notre Dame faced their toughest opponent to date Saturday as a fourth quarter blitz gave the Irish a 41-13 victory over Wisconsin.  Things don’t get any easier this week as a No. 8 Cincinnati team with dreams of crashing the College Football Playoff party are headed to South Bend.

Here is the depth chart Notre Dame released on Monday ahead of the showdown with a few things of note.

Notre Dame gets running back back for Cincinnati showdown

How much will this addition help going forward?

Notre Dame has scratched and clawed its way to a 4-0 start this fall but awaiting them will be perhaps the toughest foe of the 2021 campaign in the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Cincinnati makes their first trip to Notre Dame Stadium this Saturday and is listed as a slight favorite over the Irish.  Notre Dame will be getting and addition to its roster Saturday though as veteran running back C’Bo Flemister is set to make his season debut.

Flemister missed the first four games of the season and was involved in an overnight car accident back in the spring, but Brian Kelly made it clear that he’ll be available to play versus the Bearcats.

Flemister ran 58 times for 299 yards and five touchdowns as the third running back on the depth chart last season.

Notre Dame has averaged just 2.3 yards per carry through the first four games of 2021.

Related:

Notre Dame puts it On Wisconsin: 5 instant takeaways


Notre Dame football: C’Bo Flemister legal update

Every former Notre Dame player’s Madden ’22 rating

How all of Notre Dame’s 2021 opponents fared in week four

How have your expectations for 2021 changed after this weekend?

Notre Dame moved to 4-0 on the year behind a 31-0 run to close the game against Wisconsin on Saturday.  Next up for the Irish is the only unbeaten team remaining on their schedule, the Cincinnati Bearcats.

How did all of Notre Dame’s 2021 opponents fare this weekend?

Check it out below as a few bounced back while others suffered difficult setbacks.

Fallout of Ohio State’s cancellation at Illinois

Who gains the most from Ohio State’s misfortunes? Three teams are probably a bit happier than any others after Friday night’s news.

News came out Friday night that No. 4 Ohio State would not be playing at Illinois on Saturday due to a COVID-19 outbreak on their team.

With the Big Ten getting to their season late and not allowing for any bye weeks it means that Ohio State will only have a maximum of six regular-season games in 2020, but that is certainly no guarantee which means the Buckeyes likely trip to the Big Ten Championship Game yet again is also hardly a certainty.

In order to be eligible for the Big Ten Championship Game a team must play at least six conference games this season.  Ohio State has had two of their eight canceled and with the way things are sounding in Columbus combined with the Big Ten guidelines for players being able to return to play, it’s anything but a guarantee that the Buckeyes will be ready to take on Michigan State next week.

So what does it mean and who then gains from this?

Factor in Oregon’s unlikely loss at Oregon State Friday night and with all due respect to Colorado, USC and Washington, its nearly impossible to see a Pac-12 team making the College Football Playoff, not that I thought it was likely before.

But what about Ohio State?

Say the Buckeyes get their final two games in and are eligible for and win the Big Ten Championship, I have trouble believing they don’t get in, even if I’d have a real issue with a team only playing seven games having done enough to prove itself compared to teams who have played 11 or 12.

But if Ohio State doesn’t get their six games in then there is probably nobody in college football happier than the folks in Evanston, Cincinnati and College Station.

Ohio State would still be eligible to play the Week 9 crossover game the Big Ten is doing this year and would likely face Wisconsin.  But assuming if there is an unbeaten Big Ten champ does that really matter?

Northwestern would get a chance to go to the Big Ten Championship Game unbeaten and play Indiana instead of Ohio State.  The Wildcats and their backers would have to be thrilled as they’ve lost 32 of their last 33 meetings with Ohio State dating back to 1971.  Northwestern has been able to do a lot since Gary Barnett turned their program around in the mid-nineties but compete with Ohio State is not one of them.

If the Wildcats win the Big Ten at 9-0 and you can’t leave Northwestern out of the College Football Playoff and you’re certainly not letting two Big Ten teams in.

Cincinnati fans have to be thrilled as well because they now have more than just an outside chance at the College Football Playoff.  The Bearcats sit at 8-0 and if they beat Tulsa next weekend will have wins over three teams that were ranked when they met.

For comparison, Ohio State has one.

The folks in College Station, Texas have to like these developments as well seeing as it’s virtually impossible to expect them to be able to catch Alabama after getting boat-raced by the Tide, but Ohio State potentially only having five wins is hard to sell.  If Northwestern were to get to the Big Ten Championship but fall to Indiana then Texas A&M and Cincinnati are very likely battling it out for a spot.

Now how does all of this affect Notre Dame?

It doesn’t guarantee anything but their wiggle room to get in even if they lose the ACC Championship Game certainly got bigger with today’s news and results.