Tag: Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds predictions pick betting line spread

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The Atlanta Braves (2-0) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (0-2) in the finale of a 3-game set Sunday at Citizens Bank Park at 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 2-0

Atlanta mopped the floor with the Phightin’ Phils Saturday afternoon in a 12-4 final. DH Marcell Ozuna and 2B Ozzie Albies each homered and drove in 3 runs. They only got 2/3 of an inning out of starter Max Fried, but RHP Jesse Chavez pitched 3 solid innings to lend a hand.

RHP Aaron Nola was tattooed for 7 ER on 12 hits in 4 2/3 IP in the loss Saturday. 2B Bryson Stott went 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs. The Phillies’ top 3 hitters, DH Kyle Schwarber, SS Trea Turner and 1B Bryce Harper, are a combined 2 for 18 (.111) to start the season.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

LHP Chris Sale vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Sale went 6-5 in 20 starts last year with a 4.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 102 2/3 innings.

• Went 5-4 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 in 11 road starts with the Boston Red Sox last year vs. 1-1 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 12.3 K/9 in 9 home starts
• Beat the Phillies in his only start against them last year with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 10 K

Suarez went 4-6 in 22 starts last year with a 4.18 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 over 125 IP.

• Had trouble at home last year: 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in 12 starts vs. 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 10 starts on the road
• Has decent numbers against ATL in last 5 starts: 1-1, 1.82 ERA, 26 K in 29 2/3 IP

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Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at at 12:50 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+120) | Phillies +1.5 (-145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 3

Moneyline

The Phils’ big bats are struggling, and facing a lefty with as good of an arsenal as Sale isn’t exactly what the doctor ordered. That said, Suarez has pitched well against Atlanta. He held it to 1 run and struck out 7 in 6 IP in his lone start against it last year. So I think he’ll keep them in it, but Atlanta is just too much.

Take the BRAVES -140.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves have outscored the Phils 21-7 in the 1st 2 games. Their lineup is so deep, and as long as Sale doesn’t walk the park, BRAVES -1.5 (+120) remains at a solid value.

Over/Under

We’ve had 30 runs in the 1st 2 games, and I think we regress to the mean a little Sunday afternoon. I’d probably wait and see if the total reaches 9 before you strike.

Otherwise, LEAN UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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The Philadelphia Phillies (0-1) welcome the Atlanta Braves (1-0) to Citizens Bank Park Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0

The Braves finished atop the NL East a season ago with a 104-58 record. That was their best season since winning 106 games in 1998. Atlanta finished a strong 52-29 both on the road and at home, and it kicked off its 2024 season with a strong 9-3 win over the Phillies Friday, scoring all 9 in the 7th and 8th innings.

The Phillies were able to capitalize on 6 scoreless innings from ace RHP Zack Wheeler. Philadelphia held the lead for most of the game after a 2-run 5th. With a plethora of strong bats like SS Trea Turner and 1B Bryce Harper, it will again have playoff aspirations, finishing last season 2nd in the NL East with a 90-72 record. The Phillies were 49-32 at home in 2023.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Fried (8-1, 2.48 ERA) made 14 starts in 2023. He owned a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 77 2/3 innings.

• 2023 road splits: 6-0, 1.71 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 9 ER — 3 HR), 9 BB, 56 K in 9 starts
• 2023 vs. Phillies (excluding playoffs): No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 7-6 road win in extra innings Sept. 12

Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA) made 32 starts in 2023. He finished the season with a a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.

• 2023 home splits: 6-3, 3.29 ERA (87 2/3 IP, 32 ER — 20 HR), 28 BB, 97 K in 14 starts
• 2023 vs. Braves (excluding playoffs): 0-0, 3.50 ERA (18 IP, 7 ER — 3 HR), 4 BB, 20 K in 3 starts
• Philadelphia was 1-2 in his regular-season starts in 2023 vs. Atlanta

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Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Braves -134 (bet $134 to win $100) | Phillies +114 (bet $100 to win $114)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+125) | Phillies +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES (+114).

Prior to the 8th-inning explosion, the Phillies held the Braves to just 2 runs through 7 innings in the series opener. Philadelphia has another strong pitcher on the mound and was significantly better at home than it was on the road last season.

The combination of Turner and Harper going 0 for 7 from the plate again is unlikely, so expect more production from the Philadelphia offense. Atlanta struggled for most of the game and is facing a familiar Nola Saturday.

Expect Philadelphia to come alive, and back PHILLIES (+114).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s just no real value here.

The Phillies are too expensive to take and not worth the value against a high-octane Braves side. Atlanta has some value with Fried on the mound, but it didn’t show enough in the majority of Friday’s win to take as a run-line favorite.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8 (-105).

The starting pitchers in the 1st game of the series combined for 11 IP and 2 ER. Nola and Fried are certainly capable of repeating those types of performances. Philadelphia was 39-41-9 O/U at home a season ago.

Take away the top of the 7th inning, when Atlanta scored 7 runs, and there would’ve been just 5 runs scored Friday. Expect the high-quality pitching to own the spotlight here, and back UNDER 8 (-105).

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The Philadelphia Phillies welcome the Atlanta Braves on Friday after Thursday’s Opening Day game was postponed. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Braves won 8 of 13 regular-season meetings last season

The Braves finished on top of the NL East last season with a 104-58 record, also the best record in the MLB. They went 52-29 on the road. Atlanta earned a 1st-round bye in the playoffs before being eliminated by the Phillies 3-1 in the NLDS.

Philadelphia finished 2nd in the NL East last season with a 90-72 record, 14 games behind the Braves. The Phillies went 49-32 at home. They fell 1 game short of the World Series, losing 4-3 against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 32 starts last season. He had a WHIP of 1.09 and in 186.2 IP, he had a 4.8 K/BB with 281 total strikeouts.

• In his 2nd season as a starter, Strider went from 11 to 20 wins
• Pitched 55 more innings in 2023 than 2022; ERA jumped from 2.67 to 3.86

Wheeler was 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 32 starts last season with a WHIP of 1.08. In 192 IP, he had a 5.4 K/BB with 212 total strikeouts.

• Entering 10th season and is coming off a career-best .684 W% and his 5.4 K/BB tying a career high.
• Eclipsed 200 strikeouts for just the 2nd time in his career

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Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:37 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Braves -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+140) | Phillies +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Braves 5

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES (+105).

While Atlanta should have the better season overall, Philadelphia has a true home-field advantage opening up the season in front of its fans. The Phillies have a sour taste in their mouth from how last season ended and will look to come out swinging. They bested the Braves in 4 of the final 5 matchups between the 2 last season.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There is no value here.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (+100).

While Friday will be a battle between 2 aces, the Phillies and Braves both have good offenses. At even money for a lower total, this is worth a wager. The Braves had an Over record of 91-68 last season and will be looking to pick up where they left off. Four of the last 6 games played between these 2 has resulted in more than 9 runs.

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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday at 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS) at Citizens Bank Park for Game 4 of their NL Division Series. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Phillies lead 2-1 after a 10-2 in Game 3 on Wednesday

Atlanta headed to Philly after a brilliant comeback in Monday’s Game 2. But that momentum unraveled quickly when the Phils landed a 6-spot in the bottom of the 3rd and never relinquished the lead.

Philadelphia set a franchise postseason record with 6 round-trippers Wednesday. RF Nick Castellanos and 1B/DH Bryce Harper each homered twice for a Phillies club that is now 9-1 over its last 10 games, including the regular season.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9 in 186.2 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-0 loss vs. Phillies Saturday (NLDS Game 1)
• 2023 regular-season road stats: 12-2, 3.36 in 93 2/3 IP across 16 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 4-1, 2.18 ERA in 33 IP (includes postseason)
• Postseason career: 5.79 ERA in 9 1/3 IP over 2 starts (2022-23)
• Dinged by a .316 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) during the regular season (.402 BABIP in inning leadoff situations)

Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA across 22 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 IP.

• Last start: Win, 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-0 win vs. Phillies Saturday (NLDS Game 1)
• 2023 regular-season home stats: 1-3, 5.45 ERA in 66 IP across 12 starts
• 2023 vs. Phillies: 1-0, 9 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 11 K across 2 starts (including Saturday)
• Postseason career: 2-0, 0.98 ERA in 18 1/3 IP across 4 starts and 2 relief appearances (2022-23)

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Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 8:58 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Braves -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
• Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+110) | Phillies +1.5 (-130)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

The Phillies are on a roll, but Strider makes for enough of an antidote for the back-against-the-wall Braves. He has excellent numbers against Philadelphia, and the Atlanta offense has a good history against lefty pitchers, logging and MLB-best .870 OPS in the regular season.

Green check marks and red Xs are filling both columns in this one.

STEER CLEAR.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies play a lot of 1-run games. PHILADEPHIA +1.5 (-130) is a nice price for a game with an attractive Under. Watch for movement toward Philly, though. Grab this price at -130; pass above -135.

Over/Under

Both starters have expected-ERA figures lower than surface numbers in the regular season. The culprits? The .402 inning lead-off BABIP yielded by Strider (those situations have a large effect on run probabilities and are a hidden clutch situation in analysis), while Suarez was undone by a .327 BABIP overall (.333 when batters leading off an inning, .313 in high-leverage situations).

On a cool evening in Philadelphia with the back ends of both bullpens rested, TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies head to the City of Brotherly Love to untangle their NL Division Series. First pitch in Wednesday’s Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 5:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Tied 1-1

Atlanta heads to Philly after a brilliant comeback — complete with a wild, game-ending double-play — in Monday’s Game 2. Home runs by C Travis d’Arnaud and 3B Austin Riley helped the Braves battle back from a 4-0 deficit in an eventual 5-4 triumph.

Monday’s setback snapped a 4-game Philadelphia winning streak. Dating back to the regular season, the Phillies have lost 11 games since Sept. 8 and 7 of those have been by 1-run margins.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Elder went 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA across 31 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 174 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 2 K in 7-6 win vs. Chicago Cubs Sept. 26
• 2023 regular-season road stats: 5-3, 4.05 ERA in 80 IP across 14 starts
• Career starts vs. Phillies: 0-0, 3.38 ERA in 10 2/3 IP (2 starts in 2023)
• Making his 1st postseason start

Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-1 win vs. Miami Marlins Wednesday (NLWCS Game 2)
• 2023 regular-season home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 2-0, 2.10 ERA in 30 IP
• Postseason: 3-2, 3.86 ERA in 32 2/3 IP (2022-23)

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Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:53 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

The Phillies are a sliver of a lean in a vacuum, but the starting pitching is the big tilt for this match-up in Game 3. Elder is making his playoff debut, and his surface numbers in the regular season were suspect due to a .275 batting average on balls in play and a .255 BABIP with runners in scoring position.

The Braves hurler is also making this start on extended rest. During the regular season, he clocked a 3.39 ERA on 4-day rest. a 3.42 ERA on 5-day rest and a 5.83 ERA when pitching on 6-plus days’ rest.

Nola was a bit unlucky in the regular season with 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard. A cooled-off Philadelphia evening would not hurt his prospects for this one, but expect better control of the long ball for a pitcher who has been less frequently barreled up over the last month or so. Nola was also undone by a .340 BABIP with runners in scoring position in the regular season.

Nola was solid last week against Miami. He gives the Phils value at -130 or better.

Grab the FanDuel Sportsbook on this one: TAKE THE PHILLIES (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies play a lot of 1-run games. AVOID the cushion proposition here.

Over/Under

No leverage on either side here: PASS.

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The Atlanta Braves (95-50) and Philadelphia Phillies (79-66) play the finale of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 6-3

The Braves evened this 3-game set with a 7-6 victory in extra innings Tuesday night. Atlanta was up 6-1 but allowed 5 runs in the 7th-9th innings to blow the lead before OF Eddie Rosario singled home the eventual winning run in the top of the 10th. Atlanta is just 5-5 over its last 10 games as it continues to cruise to October, but it’s still 21-9 over the last 30.

Philadelphia took the series opener 7-5 Monday and nearly stole Tuesday’s game. The Phils are 11-9 over their last 20 games and hold the top NL Wild Card spot. They’ve had trouble within the division at 18-23 on the season but are 43-30 at home.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Strider (16-5, 3.83 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 13.9 K/9 through 162 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K last Wednesday against St. Louis Cardinals
• Last 5 regular season starts vs. Phillies: 5-0, 1.76 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 47 K in 30 2/3 IP

Sanchez (2-3, 3.26 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 80 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K Friday against Miami Marlins
• Home/road splits: Home: 2-3, 3.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 11 starts; Away: 0-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 4 starts

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Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Phillies +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-115) | Phillies +1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

This is a big start for Strider, who has allowed at least 4 ER in 3 of his last 6 outings. He is well past his career high in innings and is showing signs of fatigue and a loss of command. I’m still going to side with the Braves though, because the Phillies have not hit him historically. He has allowed just 17 hits with a 1.76 ERA in 30 2/3 IP over his last 5 starts against them. We’re not paying -185, though.

Take the BRAVES ML + SPENCER STRIDER 6 K’s (-150) at a reduced rate instead.

Run line/Against the spread

I don’t like taking RL favorites at less-than-even-money odds. The Phils have played the Braves tough, too. I could make a case to take Philadelphia here, but I’m just going to stick with the aforementioned ML and K parlay.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Braves are 8-2 O/U over the last 10, and Philadelphia is 5-5. The Over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings. Strider has pitched in 2 straight Overs, and he allowed 10 ER in 8 2/3 IP. There’s some concern there, but he has been so lights-out against the Phils, I feel a low-scoring game here.

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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