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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday at 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS) at Citizens Bank Park for Game 4 of their NL Division Series. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Phillies lead 2-1 after a 10-2 in Game 3 on Wednesday
Atlanta headed to Philly after a brilliant comeback in Monday’s Game 2. But that momentum unraveled quickly when the Phils landed a 6-spot in the bottom of the 3rd and never relinquished the lead.
Philadelphia set a franchise postseason record with 6 round-trippers Wednesday. RF Nick Castellanos and 1B/DH Bryce Harper each homered twice for a Phillies club that is now 9-1 over its last 10 games, including the regular season.
Braves at Phillies projected starters
RHP Spencer Strider vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9 in 186.2 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-0 loss vs. Phillies Saturday (NLDS Game 1)
- 2023 regular-season road stats: 12-2, 3.36 in 93 2/3 IP across 16 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 4-1, 2.18 ERA in 33 IP (includes postseason)
- Postseason career: 5.79 ERA in 9 1/3 IP over 2 starts (2022-23)
- Dinged by a .316 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) during the regular season (.402 BABIP in inning leadoff situations)
Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA across 22 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 IP.
- Last start: Win, 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-0 win vs. Phillies Saturday (NLDS Game 1)
- 2023 regular-season home stats: 1-3, 5.45 ERA in 66 IP across 12 starts
- 2023 vs. Phillies: 1-0, 9 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 11 K across 2 starts (including Saturday)
- Postseason career: 2-0, 0.98 ERA in 18 1/3 IP across 4 starts and 2 relief appearances (2022-23)
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Braves at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 8:58 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Braves -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+110) | Phillies +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 3
Moneyline
The Phillies are on a roll, but Strider makes for enough of an antidote for the back-against-the-wall Braves. He has excellent numbers against Philadelphia, and the Atlanta offense has a good history against lefty pitchers, logging and MLB-best .870 OPS in the regular season.
Green check marks and red Xs are filling both columns in this one.
STEER CLEAR.
Run line/Against the spread
The Phillies play a lot of 1-run games. PHILADEPHIA +1.5 (-130) is a nice price for a game with an attractive Under. Watch for movement toward Philly, though. Grab this price at -130; pass above -135.
Over/Under
Both starters have expected-ERA figures lower than surface numbers in the regular season. The culprits? The .402 inning lead-off BABIP yielded by Strider (those situations have a large effect on run probabilities and are a hidden clutch situation in analysis), while Suarez was undone by a .327 BABIP overall (.333 when batters leading off an inning, .313 in high-leverage situations).
On a cool evening in Philadelphia with the back ends of both bullpens rested, TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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