Tag: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets odds predictions pick betting line spread

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves (18-9) will conclude a weather-plagued 4-game series against the New York Mets (15-12) on Sunday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0.

On Friday, the Braves defeated the Mets 4-0 in a game that was cut short in the 5th inning due to weather. Saturday’s matchup was postponed, so both teams will have different starters on the mound on Sunday than the ones that were scheduled.

Atlanta has won 4 of its last 5 contests while the Mets have lost 5 of their last 6 games. New York trails Atlanta by 3 games in the NL East.

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Braves at Mets projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Tylor Megill

Strider (3-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 0.83 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 14.7 K/9 in 30 IP.

  • Has at least 9 K’s in 9 straight starts dating back to last season
  • Has yet to allow more than 4 hits in a start this season

Megill (3-1, 3.96 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 25 IP.

  • Has given up multiple ER in 4 of his 5 starts
  • Has walked 2 batters or more in 4 of his 5 starts

Braves at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:26 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Mets +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-105) | Mets +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Braves at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Mets 2

Moneyline

PASS.

Unless you believe that the Mets will bounce back with a win at home against Strider, then I’d just avoid taking the moneyline in this NL East matchup.

Run line/Against the spread

BRAVES -1.5 (-105).

Atlanta has won by multiple runs in 4 of Strider’s 5 starts this season and Megill is struggling to strike batters out in recent starts.

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Over/Under

UNDER 7.5 (-110)

Strider is pitching at an elite level early in the season. While the Braves could score a decent number of runs on Megill, it won’t be enough to hit the Over in this contest.

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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (18-9) and New York Mets (15-12) tussle Saturday in game 2 of a 4-game series in Queens. First pitch from Citi Field is slated for 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0

Atlanta took Friday’s opener 4-0 in a rain-shortened 5-inning contest. The Braves are 4-1 over their last 5 games and 11-2 this season away from home.

The Mets have lost 5 of their last 6 contests. New York pitching — usually solid — has compiled a 6.00 ERA over that span.

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Braves at Mets projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Tylor Megill

Strider (3-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his 6th start of the 2023 campaign. He owns a 0.83 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 14.7 K/9 through 30 IP.

  • Posted a 4.38 ERA across 3 starts against the Mets last season
  • Has not allowed a run over his last 2 starts (14 IP)

Megill (3-1, 3.96 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has registered a 1.48 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 25 IP.

  • Has clocked a 3.24 ERA over his last 5 starts against Atlanta (2021-22)
  • Struggled on the Mets’ April 14-23 west coast road trip, allowing 7 runs on 13 hits and 5 walks over 9 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants

Braves at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Braves -162 (bet $162 to win $100) | Mets +136 (bet $100 to win $136)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+108) | Mets +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Braves at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

Give the Braves a big advantage on the mound in this one, more so than what shows in surface ERAs. Strider has been ultra-consistent so far and has the more supportable numbers. Megill has been buoyed by a .274 batting average on balls in play and a lofty strand rate.

Give Atlanta an edge in the bullpen as well. Both back ends are well-rested after Saturday’s Little League hours, but like Megill, the New York ‘pen has been aided by generous rates around the margins.

Consider split action on a favorably priced Braves team: perhaps half on the moneyline and half on the run line. BACK ATLANTA (-162), but move fast on this one before it takes on any more juice.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braces have won 7 of their last 8 against the Metropolitans. Six of those wins were by multi-run margins — 4 coming by 3 or more runs.

New York has a lackluster .690 OPS at home.

TAKE THE BRAVES -1.5 (+108).

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Over/Under

Multiple actual-vs.-expected-production factors fall on each side of this equation. AVOID.

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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves (17-9) and New York Mets (15-11) open up a 4-game set at Citi Field Friday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Mets won 10-9 last year

The Braves took 3 of 4 from the Miami Marlins, but dropped Thursday’s game 5-4. They were swept by the Houston Astros earlier in the week. Atlanta is 5-5 in its last 10. The Braves have thrived on the road, though, at 7-2 thus far.

The Mets are just trying to tread water until ace Max Scherzer‘s 10-game suspension is up. They snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 9-8 win over Washington Thursday. The Mets sit 2 games behind the division-leading Braves and are 5-4 at home this season.

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Braves at Mets projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. LHP David Peterson

Fried (1-0, 0.60 ERA) makes his 4th start this season. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 15 IP.

  • Last start vs. Houston Astros Sunday: 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 5 K
  • Last 5 GS vs. Mets: 3-2, 2.79 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 25 K in 29 IP

Peterson (1-3, 7.36 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.64 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 25 2/3 IP.

  • Last start vs. San Francisco Giants Saturday: 5 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K
  • Last 5 GS vs. Braves: 2-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 27 K in 23 1/3 IP

Braves at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:22 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mets +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Braves at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

The Braves have a decided advantage on the rubber, and they have won the last 4 meetings between the teams. Peterson has given up at least 5 runs in 3 of his 5 starts. That will be the difference in this game.

Take the Braves -140 or PASS and look to the spread.

Run line/Against the spread

Of the last 10 meetings between the clubs, the Braves have taken 6, and 9 of the 10 games ended in multiple-run finals. The Mets have the bullpen edge at 12th with a 3.55 ERA, and Atlanta is 17th at 3.88. Atlanta should get to Peterson as they’re 6-3 against lefties while the Mets are 5-6.

Take the BRAVES -1.5 (+125).

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Over/Under

There’s a 60-percent chance of rain, and it’s a chilly 53 degrees with a 14-mph wind blowing in from right-center. Those are risks with going Over here. But the Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York and 9-3-1 in the last 13 overall. The Braves have cashed an Over in 4 straight overall, on grass and against NL East foes.

If this number reaches 8, I’m out.

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (64-45) close out a 5-game series with the NL East rival New York Mets (69-39) Sunday at Citi Field with the 1st pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York has won 3 of the first 4 games of this series, including a doubleheader sweep of Atlanta Saturday. The Mets won 8-5 in the 1st game and 6-2 in the nightcap.

Season series: The Mets lead 7-4

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Braves at Mets projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Jacob deGrom 

Strider is 6-3 with a 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 87 IP over 12 starts and 11 relief appearances.

  • Last start: Won 13-1 Tuesday at home vs. the Philadelphia Phillies with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 13 K
  • 2022 vs. the Mets: 1 start, a no-decision in Atlanta’s 4-1 home win July 12 with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 8 K
  • Strider is a heavy favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year (-200

This is deGrom’s (0-0, 1.80 ERA) 2nd start of the season.

  • Last start: No-decision in Mets’ 5-1 loss at the Washington Nationals Tuesday with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 6 K
  • 2021 vs. the Braves: 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 20 K in 2 starts

Braves at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:43 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mets -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Braves at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 3, Mets 2

Money line

BET the BRAVES (+120) because Strider has some of the nastiest stuff in MLB and has allowed 1 or 0 earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts.

Also, this line is suspiciously low considering how much the betting public loves backing the Mets with deGrom on the bump. New York’s average line as home favorites with deGrom as the starter is -234 since the beginning of 2020.

Furthermore, nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Mets (-145) according to Pregame.com but Tipico Sportsbook hasn’t moved the line. In fact, several other oddsmakers have lowered New York’s ML, which is suspect considering the betting splits.

However, BET a HALF-UNIT only on the BRAVES (+120) because Strider is still just a rookie and the Mets are 11-5 overall as home favorites with deGrom on the mound since 2020.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Braves +1.5 (-190) is far too expensive considering 10 of their 11 meetings with the Mets -1.5 (+155) have been decided by at least 2 runs and New York is 44-37 RL as favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+110) since Strider has been dominant this year and deGrom has a 1.80 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Braves.

Also, the Under 6.5 (+110) appears to be the sharper play since slightly more money is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over 6.5 (-135), per Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wise to follow the cash column when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors wager a lot more dough.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) because the Braves-Mets total is sharp and there isn’t a lot of value in this number.

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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (63-42) and New York Mets (66-38) continue a 5-game Citi Field series with Game 2 Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 5-3

Before Thursday’s 6-4 loss, the Braves were 4-1 over their last 5 games and had a 1.60 ERA over that stretch and a 2.88 mark since July 1.

The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 games. The New York surge has been led by the club’s offense: the Mets batted .317/.378/.548 (.926 OPS) in the 9 games before Thursday’s series opener.

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Braves at Mets projected starters

RHP Ian Anderson vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Anderson (9-6, 4.99 ERA) has made 20 starts this season. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 101 IP.

  • Pitched 6 shutout innings in Saturday start vs. Arizona with 1 H, 1 BB and 9 K. Has held foes to 1 run or less in 3 of his last 5 turns.
  • Has held current Mets batters to a .611 OPS.

Walker (9-2, 2.79 ERA) has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 103 1/3 IP in 18 starts.

  • Has a 1.93 ERA at home.
  • Current Braves batters own an aggregate .638 OPS against him.

Braves at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-180) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Braves at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Mets 4

Money line

Walker’s line has been buoyed by an 88.7% success rate in preventing runs with runners in scoring position and by a .257 batting average on balls in play. Peg his expected ERA being closer to 4.00, and he’s coming off back-to-back 100-pitch games.

TAKE ATLANTA (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread

AVOID. The extra juice here nixes any potential value in getting the Braves by with a healthy cushion.

Over/Under

Mixed signals here: some Under in general when looking at the offenses.

With neither bullpen extended Thursday, this total isn’t worth revisiting as an Over lean. PASS.

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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Atlanta Braves (63-42) and New York Mets (66-38) open a 5-game Citi Field series Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 4-3.

The Braves are 4-1 over their last 5 games. Atlanta owns a 1.60 ERA over that stretch and a 2.88 mark since July 1.

The Mets are 8-1 in their last 9 games. The New York surge has been led by the club’s offense: the Mets have batted .317/.378/.548 (.926 OPS) over the 9 games.

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Braves at Mets projected starters

RHP Kyle Wright vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Wright (13-4, 2.93 ERA) is lined up for his 21st start of the 2022 campaign. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 122 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 5.64 ERA over his last 5 starts against the Mets.
  • Averages 91 pitches per start. Has given Atlanta 6 innings-plus in 8 of his last 10 starts.

Carrasco (11-4, 3.79 ERA) owns a 1.31 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 111 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

  • Has not allowed a run since July 9 and owns an 0.90 ERA since July 3.
  • Current Braves batters own an aggregate .785 OPS against him.

Braves at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+165) | Mets +1.5 (-205)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Braves at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Mets 3

Money line

Wright has been pitching well on the road (2.72 road ERA), and Carrasco feels a bit overrated from his recent starts.

The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 series openers.

TAKE ATLANTA (+102). Consider a partial-unit play up until a full-trigger point of +107.

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Run line/Against the spread

AVOID: the juice is loose and likely drowns out true odds in the middle.

Over/Under

The Under is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games at home, and it’s 4-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 games.

Both starters are adept at inducing ground balls, which will be key on a warm, humid, wind-out night in Queens. Both bullpens are in good shape.

This one is worth a line watch. Take the UNDER 8.5 (-125) for a HALF UNIT, but feel free to go a full unit if the line hits -120.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (49-51) play the New York Mets (53-45) Tuesday in the third game of their five-game series at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams started their series by splitting a doubleheader Monday. Atlanta took the first game 2-0 and New York won the latter half 1-0.

Season series: Mets lead 7-6.

RHP Charlie Morton is Atlanta’s projected starter. He is 9-3 with a 3.65 ERA (111 IP, 45 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 20 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 8 K Thursday at the Philadelphia Phillies.
  • Morton is 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER) against New York this season with 8 H, 3 BB and 26 K through three starts.

The Mets haven’t officially announced their starter but RHP Nick Tropeano is projected to get the nod. He is 0-1 with 8 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 2 K this season while making a combined five appearances for the Mets and San Francisco Giants.

  • Last outing: No-decision in relief with 2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 0 K in New York’s 13-4 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates July 9.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Braves at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mets +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Braves 5, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

BET the BRAVES (-120) for 1 unit because Morton has been dealing lately and has pitched very well against the Mets this season.

Six of Morton’s previous seven outings were quality starts and over that span, he is 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 55/14 K/BB.

Furthermore, New York’s lineup has just a .197 wOBA against Morton this season with only 8 hits through 70 plate appearances on a hard-contact rate of 28.9%. Morton has a 2.49 xFIP and 32.9 K-BB% in his three starts against the Mets this season.

Also, this figures to be a bullpen day for New York, since Tropeano hasn’t pitched more than 2 innings in any outing, but New York’s bullpen is a bit overcooked heading into Tuesday’s game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t know enough about New York’s pitching situation to lay it with the Braves -1.5 (+135) especially because Atlanta is just 9-15 ATS as a road favorite this season and 22-30 ATS against divisional opponents.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a quarter unit because these teams have a combined 36-50-5 O/U record in NL East games, Atlanta is 8-15-1 O/U as a road favorite and New York is 3-8 O/U as a home underdog.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Game 2 odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (48-50) and New York Mets (52-44) play the second game of their Monday doubleheader at Citi Field in Queens, N.Y., with the first pitch coming shortly after 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Bryse Wilson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 2-3 with a 5.34 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 28 2/3 innings across 6 starts.

Wilson last appeared in the majors June 20 in a doubleheader start against the St. Louis Cardinals. He was knocked around for 5 runs on 8 hits with no walks across 4 innings.

RHP Nick Tropeano is one of several pitchers expected to work in a bullpen game for the Mets. He is 1-0 with 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 2 K over 8 innings across 5 relief appearances for the Mets (1) and San Francisco Giants (4) this season.

RPs Anthony Banda and Drew Smith are also expected to see some action for the banged-up Mets pitching staff.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Braves at Mets Game 2 odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-185) | Mets -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Mets 5, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

The METS (-140) are a good play in the nightcap against Wilson, who has been a little erratic this season.

New York hasn’t had a ton of success against Atlanta recently, but it has won five of its last seven games heading into the doubleheader and the Mets are playing well lately.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

METS -1.5 (+150) is worth a small-unit play in Game 2 at this price level. Wilson hasn’t been terribly effective this season, and the home side should get to him early and often.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 7.5 (-120) is the lean, ever so slightly.

While Wilson has been a little shaky and hasn’t been able to go deep into games, the Mets offense has struggled. They are averaging just 4.2 runs per game across their last five outings, and they have scored 20 total runs in the last seven head-to-head meetings coming into Monday’s double-dip.

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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Mets at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (41-34) and Atlanta Braves (37-41) continue their three-game series Wednesday at Truist Park in Atlanta. Game 2’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 6-3.

LHP David Peterson is on the rubber for the Mets. Peterson is 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA (63 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 across 14 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Friday.
  • Peterson got a no-decision earlier this season vs. the Braves (May 19) with a stat line of 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K in Atlanta’s 5-4 victory.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster: 47 at-bats with a .191/.283/.319 slash line, 17/5 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.

LHP Max Fried makes his 12th for the Braves. Fried is 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 9-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 6 K vs. the St. Louis Cardinals June 18.
  • Fried took a loss May 17 vs. the Mets in 6 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K in New York’s 3-1 win.
    • vs. Mets on the current roster: 114 at-bats with a .202/.287/.342 slash line, 32/11 K/BB, 2 HR and 10 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Mets at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Mets 4, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

TAKE the METS (+125) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in the pitching matchup and the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing New York.

First of all, New York’s bullpen is head and shoulders better than Atlanta’s. The Mets relievers are fifth in xFIP, sixth in SIERA and eighth in both K-BB% and left-on-base percentage. Whereas the Braves relievers are bottom-10 in the majors for all those categories.

Also, both Peterson’s basic numbers and pitching peripherals vs. active Braves hitters are slightly more impressive than Fried’s against Mets batters, but Peterson has a 1.46 FIP against Atlanta compared to Fried’s 3.24 FIP vs. New York.

Furthermore, Peterson’s pitching performance against Atlanta earlier this season was actually very good once you look under the hood.

For instance, Peterson had his best hard-hit rate vs. the Braves of any start in 2021, the second-highest K/BB rate and a 2.29 FIP on a 5.79 ERA. Peterson’s issue in that start was his unlucky .385 BAbip, which figures to regress to the mean in this meeting.

Lastly, according to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the money has been wagered on the Mets, but 70% of the bets placed are on the Braves. Typically it’s more profitable in sports betting to follow the money – especially when it’s flowing opposite of the public.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets +1.5 (-160) because New York’s run line is a little too pricy for me to bet outright, but I’d entertain incorporating it into a parlay with another similarly priced line for an even-money payout.

In addition, the Mets have a 70.0% cover rate as a road underdog (14-6 ATS) and the Braves have a 27.8% cover rate as a home favorite (10-26 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that’s betting the Over at a 76% clip (according to Pregame.com).

Moreover, these starters have solid numbers vs. their respective opponents, and most of the situational trends point to a lower-scoring affair.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (35-37) conclude their four-game series with the New York Mets (37-31) Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Kyle Wright makes his second start of the season for the Braves. Wright got a no-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Atlanta’s 5-2 win at the Chicago Cubs April 16.

  • vs. Mets on the current roster: 38 at-bats with a .368/.455/.711 slash line, 9/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 8 RBIs.

RHP Tylor Megill makes his MLB debut for the Mets. Megill is the 21st ranked prospect in the Mets organization (according to MLB.com) and is 2-1 with a 3.35 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 13.2 K/9 in eight Minor League starts.

Since New York won the first game of a seven-inning doubleheader Monday they’ve been held scoreless in consecutive Atlanta victories.

Season series: Mets lead 4-3.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:11 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Braves 5, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit since Wright pitched well vs. the Mets last year, has a diverse pitch arsenal, and Atlanta’s lineup is a lot more effective against right-handed pitching.

For instance, in those two starts, New York’s lineup’s slash line was .176/.282/.235 with a .244 wOBA and a 26.1% hard-hit rate.

Also, Wright was the fifth overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft and has a five-pitch arsenal with his most used pitches being a slider and sinker.

Furthermore, two of the Mets’ best hitters vs. the sinker and slider (OFs Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo) are on the IL and four of New York’s projected starters have a negative run value against both pitches.

Finally, against right-handed pitching, the Braves hitters rank seventh in BB/K rate, eighth in wOBA, and 11th in wRC+ while New York’s lineup ranks worse in all three categories, bottoming out at 20th in wOBA.

The reason why I’m on Atlanta’s First 5 Innings money line and not the full game is because New York’s bullpen is the much better of the two.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Braves +0.5 (-150) First 5 Innings run line because I’d love to have a little insurance with my Atlanta First 5 Innings money line, but it’s above my price range.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-110) for a quarter unit – if at all – as a “contrarian” play of the market and because the Mets have scored two or fewer runs in six of their last eight games.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]