Tag: Astros Mariners odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Seattle Mariners (52-47) welcome the Houston Astros (51-46) to T-Mobile Park Saturday for the 2nd of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 5-3

The Astros won the series-opening game 3-0, scoring all 3 in the 3rd inning. They closed as a +102 underdog on the moneyline. They have won 4 of their last 6 on the road. Houston is 23-25 in away games this season. It has won 5 of its last 7. The Astros are 53-44 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Mariners have been strong at home this season, having a 30-19 record at T-Mobile Park. Despite that, they are just 2-7 over their last 9 at home. Seattle has lost 4 straight and 6 of its last 9, dropping to 2nd in the AL West. The Mariners are 42-57 ATS on the season.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP George Kirby

Valdez (8-5, 3.66 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 98 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 9-1 win over the Miami Marlins July 10
• 2024 away splits: 4-3, 3.97 ERA (47 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 2 HR, 7.0 K/9 in 8 starts
• Career vs. Mariners: 5-3, 3.49 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 14 appearances (12 starts)

Kirby (7-7, 3.29 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 117 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-1 road loss to the Los Angeles Angels on July 13
• 2024 home splits: 5-2, 2.63 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 1 HR, 10.0 K/9 in 9 starts
• Career vs. Astros: 2-0, 1.57 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 5 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros +106 (bet $100 to win $106) | Mariners -124 (bet $124 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-210) | Mariners -1.5 (+172)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 2

Moneyline

BET MARINERS (-124).

Kirby has a strong track record against the Astros in his 3-year career and at home this season. The Mariners are 6-3 in his 9 home starts. He has had 2 ER or fewer in 6 of those starts as well. Seattle has been streaky this season but has not had a 5-game losing streak this year, riding a 4-game one now. It has also performed well at home this season.

The Astros have lost 2 of their last 3 on the road and have scored 3 or fewer in 3 straight games. Considering their shaky offensive play and Seattle’s strength at home, back MARINERS (-124).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Mariners have been steamed up to a run-line favorite, but Valdez is a quality starter for Houston. Keep it simple with the ML play.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7 (-110).

The Astros are 38-55-4 O/U on the season and have gone Under in 3 straight games, scoring 3 or fewer in each and allowing 4 or fewer in each. They have allowed 4 or fewer in 8 straight games.

The Mariners have gone Under in 3 straight as well and are 41-52-6 O/U on the season and have scored 3 runs in their last 3 games combined. With both teams having strong starting options and struggling offensively, back UNDER 7 (-110).

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The Houston Astros (50-46) and Seattle Mariners (52-46) open a 3-game set at T-Mobile Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 5-2

The Astros lost 2 of 3 games at home vs. the Texas Rangers before the All-Star break. Houston wrapped up the series with a 4-2 loss as -120 favorites Sunday with the Under (8) hitting.

The Mariners had a disappointing finish to the 1st half of the season, losing 3 of 4 games at the Los Angeles Angels July 11-14. However, Seattle is still in 1st place in the AL West, with an ever-so-slight 1-game lead over the 2nd-place Astros.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Hunter Brown vs. TBD

Brown (7-6, 4.39 ERA) makes his 19th start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 98 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-3 home victory over Rangers July 12
• 2024 road stats: 3-4, 5.70 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 9 appearances (8 starts)
• 2024 vs. Mariners: 0-0, 2.61 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 2 starts
• Career vs. Mariners (regular season): 0-2, 7.88 ERA (16 IP, 14 ER), 2.13 WHIP, 15.2 K/9 in 4 starts

The Mariners had not yet announced a starter, but RHP Luis Castillo (8-9, 3.53 ERA) is expected to make his 21st start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 117 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 11-0 victory at Angels July 11
• 2024 home stats: 5-3, 2.98 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 10 starts
• 2024 vs. Astros: 0-0, 3.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 4-2 home win May 28
• Career vs. Astros (regular season): 2-1, 3.66 ERA (32 IP, 13 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 5 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:13 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Mariners -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 3

Moneyline

The MARINERS (-135) are 24-13 as home favorites this season, and Brown hasn’t recorded a win vs. Seattle in 4 career starts. Since losing his 1st 3 home starts this season, Castillo has won his last 5 decisions at T-Mobile Park, with the Mariners going 6-1 in those outings.

BET MARINERS (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

Houston +1.5 (-190) will likely hit, as Seattle’s 29th-ranked home offense (3.58 runs per game) doesn’t score enough runs to regularly blow teams out. However, it’s hard to stay profitable long term betting into lines with this much vig.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

The Under is 17-9 (65.4%) this season when the Mariners play divisional opponents and 23-13-1 (63.9%) when they’re home favorites. Seven is a key number in MLB totals, though, and I wouldn’t look to play this unless you can find it at +106 or better.

LEAN UNDER 7 (-105).

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The Houston Astros (24-32) and Seattle Mariners (31-26) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 4-1

The Astros won the 1st meeting at Minute Maid Park in Houston on May 3, but the Mariners have won 4 straight meetings since, outscoring Houston by a 14-5 clip.

The Mariners walked it off in 10 innings on Wednesday, winning 2-1. It’s the 2nd consecutive comeback win in the late innings, as Seattle erased a 2-1 Houston lead with 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th on Tuesday.

Houston has dropped 3 in a row, while going 4-7 in the past 11 games since  May 18. The Under has cashed in 5 consecutive outings for the Astros.

Seattle has won 4 in a row, extending its lead to 3 1/2 games over the Texas Rangers in the AL West. The M’s are 18-10 at home, although they still have a minus-3 run differential on the season.

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Spencer Arrighetti vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

Arrighetti (2-5, 6.93 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.78 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K in 3-1 road loss vs. Oakland Athletics last Saturday
• 2024 road splits: 0-4, 10.26 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 2.28 WHIP, .360 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 4 HR, 11 BB, 21 K in 4 starts

Gilbert (3-2, 3.06 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 70 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 3-1 road loss vs. Washington Nationals last Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 1-1, 2.36 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.79 WHIP, .165 OBA, 2 HR, 6 BB, 30 K in 4 starts

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Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:48 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Mariners -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-184) | Mariners -1.5 (+152)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 7, Astros 2

Moneyline

The MARINERS (-134) look to cap off the 4-game sweep, and the pitching scales are strongly tipped in their favor.

The Astros (+114) turn to Arrighetti to stop the slide, and help avoid the broom, but he is easily the worst pitcher they’ve used in the series. Arrighetti has allowed just shy of 7 runs per every 9 IP, and he has been atrocious on the road.

Conversely, M’s manager Scott Servais hands the ball to Gilbert, arguably the team’s best starting pitcher.

Run line/Against the spread

The MARINERS -1.5 (+162) are a solid play, if you’re a little less conservative. Obviously, don’t play both the moneyline and run line together.

Again, Arrighetti has been terrible, especially on the road, and the M’s should stay hot with the sticks.

Over/Under

OVER 7.5 (-115) is worth a look in this series finale.

Again, this boils down to Arrighetti, who has a 10.26 ERA in 4 road starts. He has been very giving, and the Mariners should roll up plenty of runs early and often against the shaky right-hander.

The Under has dominated for the Astros lately, cashing in 5 in a row, but the Over is 4-1 in Arrighetti’s previous 5 assignments.

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The Houston Astros (24-31) and Seattle Mariners (30-26) play the 3rd game of a 4-game set Wednesday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 4-1

The Astros lost 4-2 as +111 underdogs in the 2nd game of the series Tuesday as the Under (7.5) hit. Houston has lost back-to-back games and is 4-6 over its last 10.

CF Julio Rodríguez and 3B Josh Rojas drove in runs during a 3-run 8th inning for the Mariners, who cashed as -120 favorites. Seattle has won 3 straight, bouncing back from a 4-game skid May 22-25.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP George Kirby

Verlander (3-2, 3.60 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 40 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 6-3 victory at Oakland A’s Friday
• 2024 road stats: 3-1, 3.18 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.20 WHIP in 5 starts
• Career vs. Mariners (regular season): 22-10, 3.02 ERA (253 IP, 85 ER), 1.04 WHIP in 38 starts, including 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA (8 IP, 1 ER) in 1 start last season

Kirby (4-5, 4.33 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 62 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-1 setback at Washington Nationals Friday
• 2024 home stats: 4-1, 2.97 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.82 WHIP in 5 starts
• 2024 vs. Astros: 0-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 5-3 road loss May 3
• Career vs. Astros (regular season): 2-0, 1.59 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.97 WHIP in 4 starts

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Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mariners -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+165) | Mariners +1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 3

Moneyline

The MARINERS (-115) have dominated the Astros this season. While Kirby has lost back-to-back starts on the road, he has been much better at T-Mobile Park this season (3-0 in last 3 home starts).

Verlander has allowed 12 hits over his last 2 starts (10 2/3 IP) and was somewhat lucky to only give up only 1 ER last time out in Oakland.

BET MARINERS (-115).

Run line/Against the spread

Seattle +1.5 (-200) should hit, but laying -200 in MLB is a losing proposition long term.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

The Astros have scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 6 games, and Seattle has put up 4 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. Neither offense has been impressive lately, and with Kirby starting at home, I would learn toward the Under. However, 7 is a key number in MLB totals, and this line is a bit too low for me to commit.

LEAN UNDER 7 (+100).

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The Houston Astros (24-29) take on the Seattle Mariners (28-26) Monday in the opener of a 4-game set at T-Mobile Park at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 2-1

The Astros took 2 of 3 at the Oakland A’s over the weekend and are 6-4 over their last 10. After a miserable start to the year, they’re now just 3½ back from the AL West lead. 3B Alex Bregman picked the worst time for a massive slump. The contract-year star is hitting .210 with 4 homers and 21 RBIs.

OF Julio Rodriguez doesn’t have to worry about a contract, but he opened the year flat as well. He’s showing signs of turning it around with homers in 2 straight games — he’s hitting .260 with 4 homers and 19 RBIs. The Mariners snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 9-5 win as -172 road favorites at the Washington Nationals Sunday. Rodriguez had 4 RBIs to go with a homer in the win.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Bryce Miller

Valdez (3-2, 4.32 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 41 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K in 9-7 home setback vs. Los Angeles Angels May 20
• Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 0-2, 6.26 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.65 WHIP, 9/2 K/9

Miller (3-5, 3.53 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 58 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 7-3 setback at New York Yankees Wednesday
• Career vs. Astros: 2-1, 3.22 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 in 4 starts

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Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:49 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 6, Astros 4

Moneyline

The M’s are 7-3 in their last 10 against the ‘Stros. It’s a little curious that Houston would be favored on the road here. Yes, Valdez is on the mound, but he got lit up by the lowly Angels last time out and hasn’t fared well against Seattle in his last 5 turns against them.

TAKE MARINERS (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS on the run line as we’re on the Seattle ML above.

However, I like FRAMBER VALDEZ UNDER 5.5 K’S (+100) here. He has only fanned 6 or more in 2 of his last 7 starts. Plus, he struck out just 3 in 5 1/3 innings against Seattle May 4.

Over/Under

It’s slated to be 65 degrees with a very light breeze headed out to right-center. Both starters gave up 5+ runs in their last outings, and we had 8+ runs in 2 of the 3 head-to-head meetings earlier this season.

With this number being fairly low, I like OVER 7.5 (-105).

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The Houston Astros (86-72) and Seattle Mariners (85-72) meet for the Wednesday finale of a key 3-game AL West series. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 9-3

Houston took the series opener 5-1 and then dropped a 6-2 decision Tuesday. The Astros are just 1-4 over their last 5 games and 2-6 across their last 8.

Seattle had won 4 straight games against Houston before Monday’s setback. In winning 9-of-12 from the Astros so far, the Mariners have won a season series against Houston for the 1st time since 2018.

The Astros head into Wednesday 2 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the race for the AL West flag and a half-game ahead of Seattle for the final AL Wild Card berth.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Bryce Miller

Valdez (12-11, 3.39 ERA) is tabbed for his 31st start of the season. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 194 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 H, 7 R (6 ER), 3 BB, 10 K in 7-5 home loss vs. Kansas City Royals Friday
• 2023 road stats: 8-3, 3.42 ERA in 92 IP across 14 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 1-1, 3.98 ERA in 31 2/3 IP (2021-23)

Miller (8-6, 4.17 ERA) makes his 25th start. He owns a 1.12 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 127 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K in 8-5 loss at Texas Rangers Friday
• 2023 Home stats: 5-2, 3.34 ERA in 70 IP across 13 starts
• Career starts vs. Astros: 2-0, 0.00 ERA in 12 1/3 IP in 2 starts (2023)

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Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 4

Moneyline

The Astros lineup went just 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position Tuesday, and clutch failures like that one are frequent in the club’s recent losses.

The 2 starters in this meeting have just some slight fade in their analytics. but Miller carries a bit more due to perhaps a bit more luck despite some unattractive barrel rates. Add in a bit of a recent slide for the Seattle bullpen, a unit likely more fatigued at the back end than its counterparts in this game.

Houston is 5-1 in its last 6 season finales. BACK THE ASTROS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

Peg the Astros as a lean here. In a game with an Over lean, consider a line watch: back the Astros -1.5 at +140 or better. AVOID otherwise.

Over/Under

The Over was a losing lean Monday. Tuesday’s game was a no-lean push. The lean is back on the Over for the finale. But PASS unless you find a better price on the Over 8.

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The Houston Astros (86-71) and Seattle Mariners (84-72) meet Tuesday as they continue a key 3-game AL West series. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is slated for 10:05 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 8-3

Houston was swept by the Kansas City Royals over the weekend, but the Astros bounced back to take this series opener 5-1.  Astros pitching had clocked a 4.94 ERA over its previous 8 games, but SP Justin Verlander and RP Bryan Abreu combined to allow just 3 hits Monday.

Seattle is just 5-11 since Sept. 8. The Mariners had won 4 straight games against Houston before Monday’s setback.

The Astros head into Tuesday 2 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the race for the AL West flag and 1 1/2 games ahead of Seattle for the final AL Wild Card berth.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP George Kirby

Javier (9-4, 4.74 ERA) is tabbed for his 30th start this season. He owns a 1.28 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 146.1 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 11 K in 8-7 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
• 2023 road stats: 4-2, 5.40 ERA in 84 1/3 IP across 16 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 3-1, 2.48 ERA in 29 IP (2020-23)

Kirby (10-10, 3.57 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 171.2 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K in 6-3 win at Oakland Athletics Wednesday
• 2023 Home stats: 6-4, 3.10 ERA in 81 1/3 IP across 13 starts
• Career starts vs. Astros: 1-0, 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 IP in 2 starts (2022-23)

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Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mariners -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Mariners -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Astros 4

Moneyline

The Mariner Moneyline has been a winner in 46 of the club’s last 76 games (+7.20 units, 6% ROI).

Peg the Mariners as slightly underplaying their scoring profile of 4.72  average runs for and 4.11 against. And Seattle has dominated this season series. Kirby on the mound is a plus: he has registered a 3.18 ERA at home the last 2 seasons but is making just his 2nd start at T-Mobile since Aug. 12.

Javier has had some struggles away from Minute Maid. Overall, he’s been the beneficiary of a .275 batting average on balls in play. Of late, he’s yielded loud contact more often.

Seattle has scored 0-2 runs 7 times since Aug. 15. In the games that followed, the Mariners averaged 5.86 runs per game.

TAKE SEATTLE (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

More juice here. AVOID.

Over/Under

The Over was a losing lean Monday. The pitching Tuesday makes for mostly a crisscross past the number and back. PASS.

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The Houston Astros (85-71) and Seattle Mariners (84-71) meet Monday as they open a key 3-game AL West series. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 8-2

Houston is coming off being swept by the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. The Astros head into this week 2 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the race for the AL West flag and a half-game ahead of Seattle for the final AL Wild Card berth. Astros pitching owns a 4.94 ERA over its last 8 games.

The Mariners were swept by the Rangers over the weekend. Seattle is a paltry 5-10 since Sept. 8, bus has won 4 straight games against Houston and 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Verlander (11-8, 3.39 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 149 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K in 8-7 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles last Monday
• 2023 Road stats: 5-3, 3.71 ERA in 63 IP across 11 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 4-1, 2.88 ERA in 34 1/3 IP IP (2022)

Castillo (13-7, 3.08 ERA) is making his 31st start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 181 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 8 K in 7-2 win at Oakland Athletics Tuesday
• 2023 Home stats: 8-3, 2.52 ERA in 96 1/3 IP across 16 starts
• Career starts vs. Astros: 2-0, 2.70 ERA in 20 IP in 3 starts (2019-23)

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Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.

• Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mariners -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Mariners -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Astros 4

Moneyline

Figure the prices here as being fair. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Again, the public has this one surrounded. Here on the Run Line, the public is near the true odds and there is a moat full of juice around that. AVOID.

Over/Under

The Over is 3-1 across the last 4 series games played in Seattle.

The Seattle offense is swung around to its best platoon splits — especially for power — against right-handers. The Houston offense owns a 4-for-30 mark (.133) with runners in scoring position during its current 3-game losing streak.

The back ends of both bullpens likely have a few bodies either unavailable or not available for much due to activity over the weekend. And both starters have surface numbers a bit too far over their skis. Both are quality pitchers, but Verlander’s line is tamped down by a .272 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), a .266 BABIP in inning lead-off situations and a .264 BABIP with runners in scoring position. Castillo also has favorable BABIPs: .258 total, .225 at home and .215 with runners in scoring position.

BACK THE OVER 7.5 (+100).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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