Kirk Cousins’ EPA is through the roof

It’s been a great start to the season for Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

EPA/play is defined as a measure of success that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense’s likelihood to score. According to Pro Football Focus, EPA is attributed equally to both teams, and the metric is fairly reliable in identifying the best teams in football.

When attributed to players, EPA/play measures the player’s performance and how they affect their team’s ability to score points and win the game.

Sumer Sports, a quantitative analysis firm focused on the NFL, reported the top ten quarterbacks in total EPA through the first two weeks. Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins ranked seventh, despite an 0-2 record for Minnesota.

Despite the struggles at the beginning of this season, the Vikings are still second in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns and fourth in net yards per attempt. Cousins and this passing game have tried to lead Minnesota to victory. The rest of the team needs to catch up.

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Data Dump: What the numbers say about the Browns

Let’s take a look at how the Browns look on paper after their Week 1 win

The end of the first week of the NFL season brings about the start of weekly analytic breakdowns. Cleveland Browns fans are lucky as there are multiple different people, groups, and businesses to help break down the numeric side of the game  Football is not a game played on spreadsheets, but it’s more easily digested that way.

In our inaugural data dump of the season, we are including stats about both the week 1 matchup specifically, and how the Browns compare to the rest of the NFL. We will be publishing updates every week to follow the Browns’ statistical movements as they vie for the AFC North title.

We’ll start by analyzing the game against the Bengals, before zooming out towards the macro state.

ESPN projects Cameron Jordan to lead Saints with his lowest sacks total since 2011

ESPN projects Cameron Jordan to lead the Saints defense in sacks again, but with his lowest single-season total since his 2011 rookie year:

Sports science is becoming a bigger factor in covering the NFL every day, with predictive models quickly carving out a niche. ESPN Analytics’ Seth Walder shared his projections for the top 50 pass rushers in the league this year, following the same model he’s used to some success in past seasons.

It’s not a great outlook for the New Orleans Saints. Despite having invested multiple contract extensions and early-round draft picks in their defensive line, just one player is projected to rank inside the top-50: defensive end Cameron Jordan.

That in itself isn’t much of a surprise. Jordan has led the team in sacks more often than not since his 2011 rookie year. But ESPN’s model forecasts just 7.4 sacks for Jordan in 2023, which both leads the team and ranks 22nd around the league. Jordan won the official Saints sacks record last season from Rickey Jackson, but pre-1982 charting at Pro Football Reference still awards Jackson with the unofficial franchise record (123). If this is an accurate prediction for Jordan, he’d come up half a sack shy of Jackson’s unofficial total.

Now, in real life the NFL counts half-sacks, so Jordan would either have 7.5 (if we round up) or 7.0 (which would be rounding down, of course). That latter number would be the move here, and it’s a dire picture. Jordan hasn’t had fewer than 7.5 sacks in a single season since he entered the league. For that number to set the pace for his teammates would be worrisome to say the least.

But it matches what we’ve seen so far. Carl Granderson peaked last year with 5.5 sacks as a part-time starter at defensive end. Payton Turner only has 3.0 sacks through his first two years as a pro. Tanoh Kpassagnon, Jordan’s primary backup, only had 2.0 sacks last season which lines up with his career average. Rookie draft pick Isaiah Foskey is looking like a typical slow-to-develop Saints defensive end.

Is this model legit? Last year it predicted Jordan and Marcus Davenport would have 6.5 and 6.4 sacks, respectively; they posted 8.5 and 0.5 each. A year earlier it called for 8.3 sacks for Jordan (he had 7.5), so it’s made more hits than misses.

Some other interesting names jump out from the 2023 projections. Davenport is expected to produce 6.8 sacks for the Minnesota Vikings this fall, while former Saints defensive end Trey Hendrickson is lined up for 9.5 sacks (he had just 8.0 sacks last year after bagging a career-high 14.5 of them the year before). One of the players picked immediately after Turner in 2021, Baltimore Ravens edge rusher Odafe Oweh, is predicted to bag 6.2 sacks. He has 8.0 sacks through his first two seasons.

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Analytics pioneer Warren Sharp heavily criticizes Commanders’ Rivera

Would analytics have helped the Commanders win more games in 2022?

Warren Sharp confidently supplied listeners with several analytics markers/statistics Wednesday when he was a guest on the “Al Galdi Podcast.”

In his opening comments, Sharp expressed that last season (2022) could have been much better for Washington had they utilized some emphasis on analytics.

Sharp has graded out the Commanders offense quite lowly amongst the 32 NFL teams. On the other hand, Sharp graded the Commanders defense much higher.

However, Sharp rated Ron Rivera as 28th out of 32 NFL head coaches.

Here are some selected quotes from Sharp directed at Ron Rivera.

“To me, the whole tenure of Ron Rivera has gone massively sideways.”

“Ron Rivera is a defensive-minded head coach. The concern, in general, is a defensive coach wants his defense to look good because that is why he was brought to town. He will sacrifice some things offensively to help the defense look a little bit better potentially. What they tend to sacrifice is quarterbacks passing the ball and trying to score quickly.”

“In lieu of this, they try to control the football, run the football, have time of possession because they feel it drives the defense to give them their rest to play better. It is such an old-school process.”

“Look, last year Washington executed it to a T. They had the most time of possession of any football team since 2019. They controlled the ball over 33:00 minutes a game. But the offense averaged .57 points per minute. (Ranked 31 in NFL).”

“You guys ranked 32 in pass rate in the first half of games. You were running the ball a ton and these runs were abysmal. Early-down runs in the first half you guys were last in the NFL.”

“He (Rivera) hasn’t delivered a single winning season in three years. He still hasn’t figured out the quarterback position.”

There was much more from Sharp being critical of Washington’s 2022 offense in general and Ron Rivera in particular. See the above link to listen.

However, one thing my father taught me while still in grade school: “There are two sides to every coin.” In response to this criticism of Rivera and the 2022 Washington offense.

I think Ron Rivera might perhaps man up and say, “Yes, we stunk on offense most of the time in 2022. Yes, our quarterbacks struggled last season, and that is why we have two other quarterbacks this season.

Yes, we ran the ball too much, and we have gone out and hired Eric Bieniemy to provide an entirely new offensive philosophy for this season. It will be his offense, and we needed to do this.

Yes, our two starting guards really struggled last season (Andrew Norwell, Trai Turner). This is why neither of them are with us this season. We need to be able to run the ball more effectively inside. Also, we need to be more athletic in our line to be able to throw screens behind the line of scrimmage to make it easier on Sam Howell as much as we can.”

Rivera has defended his use of analytics over the years. New owner Josh Harris is known for his reliance on analytics as owner of the Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils.

Saints add another member to Khai Harley’s front office department

The Saints added another member to Khai Harley’s department in the front office: former Vikings analytics director Scott Kuhn

Check the New Orleans Saints’ list of front office personnel and you’ll see just two people working in the department of football administration: vice president Khai Harley and director Scott Kuhn. Harley’s former assistant Tosan Eyetsemitan moved to the pro scouting department this offseason, opening a role for Kuhn. So who is he?

Kuhn was hired as a pro scout with the Minnesota Vikings back in 2007, where he worked under former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. Last season he was promoted to Minnesota’s director of football quantitative methods while continuing to work in the pro scouting department, where his work took a more analytical focus. The Vikings didn’t retain him after the 2022 season while new GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah restructures his front office.

Harley is known as New Orleans’ in-house salary cap expert, working to navigate the cap and maximize the team’s spending resources each year. But he won’t be around forever. It’s only a matter of time before other teams come sniffing around and seek to poach him for a general manager job of his own (ex-Saints executive Terry Fontenot tried to bring him to the Atlanta Falcons) and it’s worth investing in qualified candidates to replace Harley, if need be. Bringing in guys like Eyetsemitan and Kuhn could pay off in a big way.

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Watch: Cowboys’ newest big brain, Sarah Mallepalle, discusses analytics in football

A 2022 panel at MIT Sloan gives us a glimpse into the newest Cowboys’ front office hire and what she’ll bring to the table. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys continue to revamp their analytics department with quality hires who are well respected in the data community. John Park was brought in a few weeks ago to take over the division, and he’s wasted no time in beginning the rebuild. The Park hire was met with universal praise, not just for his own acumen, but for the network of other really intelligent people he was going to be able to tap into in order to build out that wing at The Star in Frisco.

His first hire, Sarah Mallapalle, hits on those sweet notes. Mallapalle is a Carnagie Mellon graduate with a BS in Statistics and Machine Learning from 2018. She spent a year in the Philadelphia Phillies organization before the NFL and has been with the Baltimore Ravens the last three seasons. In the below video, she was part of an esteemed panel at MIT Sloan, the Sports Analytics Conference. Various topics are covered with the panel, so you can spend 45 minutes and get a glimpse into the Cowboys’ newest big brain.

Reports: Saints part ways with longtime analytics chief in mutual split

Reports: Saints part ways with longtime analytics chief Ryan Herman in ‘cordial, mutual’ split

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Here’s a change to the New Orleans Saints’ front office, as first reported by Nola.com’s Jeff Duncan and confirmed by NewOrleans.Football’s Mike Triplett: analytics chief Ryan Herman is not returning after a six-year run with the team. Triplett adds that it was a “cordial, mutual” decision to go in a different direction once Herman’s contract ended, giving him an opportunity to devote more time to his family.

Herman worked in the player personnel department in football research and strategy, primarily focusing on weekly in-season studies on developing trends around the league as well as advanced scouting on future opponents. He wore a couple of different hats, also assisting Khai Harley in managing the salary cap, and the Saints will need to replace him and his contributions to the team.

Maybe they’ll more fully embrace the analytical side of the game and build a more robust advanced-stats team, as has become more popular around the league. Ex-Saints head coach Sean Payton talked up the resources available to him now with the Denver Broncos compared to those in New Orleans, and it’s an area the team could improve upon. They left a lot of meat on the bone last year with conservative in-game decisions on fourth down, and Dennis Allen could benefit from stronger information to help him out in that phase.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index likes the Saints to win a weak NFC South

ESPN’s Football Power Index likes the Saints to win a weak NFC South, but the worldwide leader in sports’ analytical arm is in a bit of a rut:

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It’s been a rough month for ESPN’s analytical arm. The worldwide leader in sports misfired on its predictions for the 2023 NFL draft, giving former Kentucky quarterback Will Levis a 92% chance of being picked in the top-10, and less than 0.1% that he wouldn’t be picked in the first round at all (he wasn’t, in fact, and was picked up in a trade in Round 2).

Things haven’t gotten much better for ESPN’s analytical models, which (so far) botched their predictions for the NBA playoffs and currently have the Boston Celtics with a 65% chance of rallying back to win a series with the Miami Heat they currently trail 2-0. They probably need to put that cake back in the oven.

So what does this mean for the New Orleans Saints? ESPN Analytics’ Seth Walder, whose Football Power Index (or FPI) likes the Saints to win a vulnerable-looking division, which feels ominous given how poorly ESPN has predicted everything else as of late:

The woebegone NFC South might not have a ton going for it in 2023 — every team ranks 22nd or worse in the FPI — but it is very much up for grabs. The New Orleans Saints, with new quarterback Derek Carr at the helm, are the projected winners but at just 42% — the shortest favorites in any division. The Atlanta Falcons (29%), Carolina Panthers (22%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9%) follow, each with at least a feasible path to the division title. But every NFC South team has a mean projected win total under nine.

Sure, there are benefits to playing in a division with three actively-rebuilding teams and two without viable starting quarterbacks. But that weak schedule extends beyond their division; Walder observed that New Orleans “doesn’t face a single team in the FPI’s top 10 the entire season.” The 2022 campaign was tough to watch, but a third-place finish does have its perks in determining future opponents.

If there’s any consolation, it’s that every other outlet is predicting something similar. Many NFL experts have the Saints winning the NFC South with eight, nine, or ten victories and hosting a playoff game in January. If the Saints can at least meet those expectations and enjoy better health than they struggled with last year, the division is theirs for the taking.

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Global Rating rankings: The best players of the NBA playoffs

The 2023 NBA playoffs are in full swing, featuring 16 teams vying for the championship title. Based on our advanced Global Rating metric, we present the most outstanding players of the postseason so far.

The 2023 NBA playoffs are in full swing, featuring 16 teams vying for the championship title. Based on our advanced Global Rating metric, we present the most outstanding players of the postseason so far.

Sean Payton says Broncos analytics ‘on a different level here’ compared to Saints

Sean Payton says the Broncos analytics department is ‘on a different level here’ compared to the one he installed with the Saints:

To reference Tim Robinson’s stellar (and not safe for work) I Think You Should Leave sketch, “We’re all trying to find the guy who did this.” That’s what keeps coming to mind every time Sean Payton talks up his new Denver Broncos team over the New Orleans Saints squad he quit on a year ago.

Payton’s latest comments on the differences between the two organizations touched on the Broncos analytics department, which he said “Is on a different level here,” compared to what he was working with in New Orleans during his pre-draft press conference this week.

“I’m like that driver of a new car that still hasn’t figured out how to get the seat warmers on,” Payton continued. “It’s pretty impressive, and it’s new for me in a good way. I’m talking about the efficiency of the process. We weren’t as far ahead (in New Orleans) when we were looking at some of these players as to being able to pick up and access the information as quickly.”

What exactly that means remains to be seen. It could be as simple as the Broncos installing a fancy touchscreen big board like the Minnesota Vikings compared to the magnets and whiteboard used in New Orleans. Maybe Denver has just digitalized more of the process than the Saints to conserve paper and ink. Or they could have a high-tech database full of scouting reports, film clips, and advanced grading metrics. Who knows?

Either way, it isn’t the best look for Payton, who was responsible for many of the decisions the Saints made over the last 15 years. If he wanted to embrace the analytical side of the sport more strongly in New Orleans, all he would have had to do is ask. It’s too bad. Maybe a heavier emphasis on studying draft pick value would have swayed Payton from trading two first rounders for Marcus Davenport in 2018.

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