Tag: Analytics

Contract watch: Players that helped themselves over the last month

The NBA season is just over a third complete and it’s becoming clear which players are making great strides and having career years. Here are several players that are outperforming their current contract and are setting themselves up for new deals very soon. We used ProFitX to view what these players should be earning based on their level of play, and evaluate if these players are in a position to earn such a raise with their current team.

Lions, Dan Campbell now top the metric for best 4th-down decisions

Lions coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness on 4th downs is highly favorable to the analytical data

Dan Campbell has taken a lot of heat for his aggressiveness on fourth downs this season. But the analytical metrics strongly favor what Campbell is doing as the Detroit Lions head coach.

In fact, the Lions are now the NFL’s best at deciding when to go for it on fourth downs according to the analytical study from date expert Ben Baldwin. Detroit and Campbell moved to the top with a successful Week 16 slate of decisions.

Note that the data doesn’t track the success rate, just the choice to go for it versus giving the ball away on a punt or kicking a field goal attempt.

The Lions have gone for it on fourth down 36 times, more than any other team. They’ve converted 18, also the most in the league — a figure that includes the successful Jack Fox pass on a fake punt attempt in the Week 16 loss to the Falcons. Campbell’s aggressiveness could challenge the NFL record for most fourth-down offensive attempts with three more in the final two weeks.

Three in the Key: Explaining why Donovan Mitchell belongs in the MVP conversation

As part of an ongoing series at HoopsHype, we’re breaking down some of the most interesting trends we have seen around the NBA throughout the season.

Of course, the name of this column is derived from basketball’s three-second violation rule. With that in mind, the goal of this exercise is to find one of the most interesting subjects about the game and explain the three keys to why it is happening while also providing context on what makes it interesting.

For this edition, Three in the Key will take a look at someone that has been heating up of late. During the broadcast on Christmas, perhaps forgetting about John Stockton and Karl Malone, Stephen A. Smith called him the greatest talent in the history of the franchise. He also ranks as the NBA’s best player over the course of the last month, per HoopsHype’s Global Rating.

We’re talking about Utah Jazz superstar Donovan Mitchell – and why he might be a little bit underrated as perhaps the game’s most elite shot-creator based on these three elements:

MVP Race: Who are the best players based on advanced analytics and impact metrics?

As part of a new series at HoopsHype, we are examining who should win the NBA MVP award based on what we can learn from advanced analytics.

For this survey, each impact metric was included because it was considered among the most trustworthy by NBA executives when asked by HoopsHype during this past offseason.

The metrics pulled included Daily Plus-Minus (DPM), Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), LEBRON (BBall-Index), RAPTOR (FiveThirtyEight), Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) and Box Plus-Minus (Basketball-Reference). We also added the model of Box Plus-Minus from Backpicks.com as well as the newest impact metric, Daily-Updated Rating of Individual Performance (DRIP).

ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus was not included because the data has not been published yet this season. However, if it’s publicly available by our next update, RPM will also be calculated.

Because each of these metrics is graded on a per-100 possession scale, we adjusted for playing time by multiplying their impact contribution on each metric by the percentage of possible minutes they have played for their team so far this season.

As with the official vote, the top player received 10 points, the second received seven points, the third received five points, the fourth received three points, and the fifth player received one point. If a player finished outside of the Top 5, they didn’t receive any votes from that measurement.

Only players that made the Top 5 on least one of these eight metrics were included in our rankings below. Some of the most notable omissions include DeMar DeRozan, Trae Young, Zach LaVine, Karl-Anthony Towns, LaMelo Ball, Luka Doncic, Paul George and Devin Booker.

To see where our staff at HoopsHype feels the MVP race is as of right now, however, click here. To see who should make the All-NBA ballots based on HoopsHype’s Global Rating, click here.

After finishing fourth a year ago, the …

After finishing fourth a year ago, the Knicks are down to 22nd in defensive rating thus far. There have been declines in their ability to force turnovers and they aren’t protecting the defensive glass as well, but structurally, the defense is very similar. Unfortunately for them, that structure was a bit creaky last year. New York was bottom ten in the league in terms of allowing the most shots at the rim (21st), the most above the break threes (22nd) and corner threes (26th).

This season, Dallas has tumbled to 29th …

This season, Dallas has tumbled to 29th in LocEFG. This decline has largely been the result of their frequency of rim attempts dropping from 28th to a distant 30th. Combined with some poor shooting to open the season, the Mavs have fallen to 23rd in eFG. The paucity of rim attempts has affected their offense in more ways than just shooting efficiency, as they have dropped from about average (17th) in foul-drawing to 26th. With the team no longer able to generate easy points with any frequency, the overall attack is almost wholly dependent on the make-or-miss lottery of jump shots. If those jumpers don’t go down for a stretch, it can get ugly.

Three in the Key: Analyzing Luka Doncic, Dejounte Murray, Garrison Mathews

As part of an ongoing series at HoopsHype, we’re breaking down three interesting topics we have seen around the NBA throughout the season.

Of course, the name of this column is derived from basketball’s three-second violation rule. With that in mind, the goal of this exercise is to observe three subjects about the game. We want to explain the key to why it is happening while also providing context on what makes it interesting.

Here are three more of our highlights from the NBA’s 2021-22 season: