Alabama vs. Mississippi State: Predictions and analysis

Check out analysis and predictions for the Mississippi State vs. Alabama men’s basketball showdown in Tuscaloosa.

Things have continued to go right for the Alabama men’s basketball program. The Crimson Tide have won seven of the last eight games. Nate Oats’ squad is trending in the right direction at the right time.

Despite some early struggles, Alabama has seemingly found its identity — shoot at a high rate and do just enough on defense to come away with a win. That seems to be the formula for success, at least it has been as of late.

Alabama is coming off of a grind-it-out win against Georgia on the road. Mississippi State is coming off of a gut-wrenching loss at the hands of Ole Miss.

In the first meeting between the two programs this season, Alabama came away with a hard-earned 82-74 win over the Bulldogs inside Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville. It might have been a key turning point for the Crimson Tide.

The Bulldogs have lost three of their last five games. All three losses came on the road. Given the fact that Coleman Coliseum is not the easiest place to play, I will give Alabama the advantage.

It will not be easy given Mississippi State’s defensive prowess. However, Alabama has certainly come along on the offensive end of the floor since the two teams’ last meeting.

Mississippi State is led by the scoring tandem of Josh Hubbard and Tolu Smith. The two of them combine to average 31.4 points per game.

Alabama’s guard play will be too much for the Bulldogs to handle for two halves. Mississippi State also struggles to keep their big men out of foul trouble. For these reasons, I will have Alabama winning Saturday night’s matchup by a final score of 80-68.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, Game Preview

Alabama vs Mississippi State prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 16

Alabama vs Mississippi State prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 16


Alabama vs Mississippi State How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 16
Game Time: 7:00 ET
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
How To Watch: ESPN
Record: Alabama (5-1), Mississippi State (3-2)
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Alabama vs Mississippi State Game Preview


Why Alabama Will Win

The offense still works.

It didn’t run the ball like it needed to late against Texas A&M, and the 153 yards overall on the ground weren’t enough, but Bryce Young and the passing game were enough to hang up 522 yards of overall total offense.

That should’ve been enough to win.

Against Mississippi State the job is simple. Be Alabama.

The Bulldogs have been inconsistent on pass defense. Oddly enough, the two losses came on two of the team’s best games of the season on third downs – on both sides of the ball – but LSU was able to hit the big play in its 28-25 win, and Memphis got the one weird punt return for a score ad was able to throw just well enough when it had to.

The Alabama passing attack is averaging over nine yards per throw with 21 touchdowns and three picks. Young wasn’t as sharp as he needed to be against A&M, but as long as he’s hitting close to 65% of his throws, he should be okay.

There’s zero Mississippi State running game to worry about, so it’s just about stopping the short-to-midrange throws and getting the D off the field. However …

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Why Mississippi State Will Win

This isn’t your 2020 Mississippi State.

Last year’s offense gave the ball away for the asking. QB Will Rogers and the O have had their moments, but for the most part they’ve been able to keep the mistakes to a minimum. The biggest key, though, has been the offense’s consistency.

The Bulldogs under Mike Leach are going to throw it a bazillion times, and Rogers has been great with three touchdown passes in every game but the win over NC State – he threw two.

Even in the losses he hit more than 75% of his passes and bombed away up and down the field. He’ll get his yards, and he has to be excellent when the offense gets its chances. For all of the good things the Alabama defense has done – and it has done good things – it’s got a problem in the red zone.

Over the last four games, it’s allowed ten touchdowns in 13 trips inside the 20.

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What’s Going To Happen

The 2019 Alabama team lost to Joe Burrow and the epic LSU squad. A week later it won at Mississippi State 38-7.

In 2018, the Tide lost to Auburn, but went on to its next game to thump Clemson in the College Football Playoff on the way to the national title.

In 2015 – it’s hard to find Tide regular season losses – the team followed up a loss to Ole Miss with a 34-0 win over ULM, and it rocked Mississippi State 24-7 a week after losing to LSU 9-6 in 2011.

The blowout outlier was a 14-13 win over Arkansas in 2014 a week after losing to Ole Miss, but in general, the Tide fix the glitch whenever there is one.

2013 was the last time Bama lost back-to-back games, and that came on the Kick Six against Auburn followed up by a totally heartbroken loss to a jacked Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl.

Same thing in 2008 – a brutal SEC Championship loss to Tim Tebow and Florida led to a lifeless Sugar Bowl loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl.

The last time the University of Alabama lost back-to-back regular season games was all the way back in 2007. That was the last time the school lost to Mississippi State, too.

The Bulldogs will get a few passing yards to keep this interesting, and the better-than-you-think defense will keep this from getting out of hand, but you’re messing with history here if you think Nick Saban is about to lose two straight regular season games.

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Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, Line

Alabama 38, Mississippi State 20
Line: Alabama -17, o/u: 57.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

Must See Rating: 4

5: Caramel apple anything
1: Pumpkin spice anything

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Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, Game Preview: SEC Tournament

SEC Tournament: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction and college basketball game preview.

SEC Tournament: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction and college basketball game preview.


Alabama vs Mississippi State Broadcast

Date: Friday, March 13
Game Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Bridgestone Arena, Indianapolis, IN
Network: ESPN

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Alabama (21-6) vs Mississippi State (15-13) Game Preview

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Why Mississippi State Will Win

Mississippi State overcame a hard second half charge by Kentucky to win 74-73 to get here. The Bulldogs couldn’t hit from three well enough, but they made 49% of their shots from the field and helped stay in it on the free throw line when things were breaking down.

They lost twice to the Tide with absolutely nothing happening from three in either game. The defense worked fine and they were able to stay in both games, and now if they can just get anything from the outside, they’ve got the ability to make this a battle.

Why Alabama Will Win

Yeah, Mississippi State can’t hit the three lately.

It’s not a bad shooting team from the outside overall, but it doesn’t take a ton of outside shots and it’s only been able to get to 40% once in the last eight games.

On the flip side, Alabama can bomb its way out of a jam or into control. They’ve taken the second-most threes of anyone in the country and made the fourth most.

Combine that with their ability to force turnovers – and Mississippi State’s problems with too many mistakes and giveaways – and that should be just enough to move on.

What’s Going To Happen

Mississippi State will be plucky.

It’s good on the inside and great on the boards, forcing Bama to hit from the outside – and that plays into the strength. The Tide won’t be perfect, but they’ll go on the scoring runs that the Bulldogs won’t.

Like the first two meetings, this will be a battle with Bama having just a wee bit more in the bag.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, Line

Alabama 68, Mississippi State 61
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Line: Alabama -9, o/u: 141
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

Must See Rating: 3

5: The other 17 holes at the TPC
1: The focus on the TPC 17th

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Alabama vs Mississippi State College Basketball Game Preview

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction and college basketball game preview.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction and college basketball game preview.


Alabama vs Mississippi State Broadcast

Date: Saturday, February 27
Game Time: 6:00 ET
Venue: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS
Network: SEC Network

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Alabama (18-6) vs Mississippi State (13-11) Game Preview

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Why Alabama Will Win

The Crimson Tide might have flopped against Arkansas the other night, but before that it was on a three-game winning run and the offense has been strong enough to bomb its way out of just about everything.

It has a problem with turnovers, it fouls a lot, and the team isn’t good enough from the field, but it leads the nation in made three-pointers. It might have had its problems over the last few weeks with its consistency, but again, it makes up for it from three in game after game.

Mississippi State isn’t bad at stopping teams from three, but lost to LSU and Vanderbilt when giving up double-digit made threes in each game.

Alabama hit 14 of them in the 81-73 win in late January.

Why Mississippi State Will Win

This is a quirky Bulldog team with just enough good parts to pull this off.

Start with its ability to hit the boards and continue with the ability to hit from three.

Miss State came up with a whopping 46 rebounds in the win over South Carolina a few days ago including ten on the offensive glass. The shots have been dropping lately – hitting close to 50% from the field over the last four games – but the potential is there to do just enough to make up for the misses.

Yeah, Alabama is great on the boards, but the Bulldogs were dead even in rebounding margin in the first game.

What’s Going To Happen

Can Bama get its groove back on the road?

The last four road games have been rough with three loss and a close call against a South Carolina team that Mississippi State pantsed twice over the last few weeks.

Bama will make up for the Arkansas loss by shooting well enough from three to survive, but it’s going to get pushed really, really hard.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, Line

Alabama 78, Mississippi State 74
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Line: Alabama -5.5, o/u: 143.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 3

5: Above freezing temperatures
1: People doing Zoom calls from Florida, Cabo, etc.

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Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, College Basketball Game Preview

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction and college basketball game preview.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction and college basketball game preview.


Alabama vs Mississippi State Broadcast

Date: Saturday, January 23
Game Time: 6:00 ET
Venue: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
Network: SEC Network

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Alabama (12-3) vs Mississippi State (9-6) Game Preview

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Why Mississippi State Will Win

The Bulldogs don’t screw up enough to allow easy points.

They have a whole lot of problems at both ends of the court, but they can rebound relatively well – that’s what happens when you have a slew of misses – and they don’t turn the ball over. It’s careful enough to not commit a whole slew of fouls, and in this keeping Bama off the line matters.

The Bulldogs have to grind for points, and that includes at the free throw line.

Why Alabama Will Win

Mississippi State doesn’t shot from three, it doesn’t make threes when it does, and it doesn’t generate enough steals and big defensive plays to come up with easy scores.

This isn’t a good enough shooting team to keep up if Alabama gets going, but it somehow finds ways to to generate points. That’s a problem considering the Tide are great at bombing away from the outside, and they’re terrific at coming up with rebounds for the second-chance points when the shooting is off.

They have the O that Mississippi State can’t keep up with.

What’s Going To Happen

It’s a fun Alabama team that scores in bunches. Mississippi State would prefer to play a slower, defensive battle, but that’s not happening after the Tide get up fast with a slew of quick threes.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, Line

Alabama 80, Mississippi State 64
Bet on college basketball with BetMGM
Alabama -11, o/u: 149
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

Must See Rating: 2.5

5: A red button for butler-delivered Diet Coke
1: Diet Coke out of a can with a straw

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BAMA BEAT: Alabama-Mississippi State game recap (Ep. 366)

Clint Lamb and Brett Hudson sit down to discuss Alabama’s most recent game against Mississippi State.

Clint Lamb and Brett Hudson sit down to discuss Alabama’s most recent game against Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide moved to 6-0 with a 41-0 victory over the Bulldogs, and it was a complete performance from all three facets of the game.

 

Stay tuned for more episodes of The Bama Beat podcast, brought to you by Wickles Pickles through The Tuscaloosa News and TideSports.com!

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Alabama vs. Mississippi State: Postgame Report

The Alabama Crimson Tide beat Mississippi State 41-0 in Week 6 of the SEC season. The team dominated on both sides of the football.

Alabama moved to 6-0 on Saturday night in a 41-0 blowout against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. There were a few lulls throughout the game without points, but overall, it was a solid performance.

The Alabama defense was absolutely dominate throughout. They held Mississippi State to only 200 yards of offense and only allowed them to convert on 2-of-12 third-down attempts (16.7 percent).

The Crimson Tide only came up with two sacks (Christopher Allen, Phidarian Mathis), but they also racked up eight quarterback pressures. The pressure, for the most part, was absolutely there.

In fact, that pressure was a major reason why Alabama was able to force two interceptions, one of which was returned for a score.

Alabama’s offense only managed seven points in the second half, but an explosive 27-point first half helped make maintaining that blowout victory possible.

Mac Jones was 24-of-31 (77.4 percent) for 291 yards and four scores. That is good for 9.4 yards per attempt. His favorite target with Jaylen Waddle was senior DeVonta Smith, who hauled in 11 of the 24 completions for 203 yards and all four touchdowns.

This was the second time in Smith’s career that he put up four or more receiving touchdowns in a single game. Unsurprisingly, that is a SEC record.

Another notable aspect of the game was the impact from some of the freshmen.

Outside linebacker Will Anderson Jr. had five tackles, two tackles for loss and two quarterback pressures. He consistently showed burst and explosiveness of the snap while also flashing elite bend when putting pressure on the quarterback.

Defesive back Malachi Moore led the team in tackles with eight. He also added a tackle for loss and two pass breakups while providing multiple underrated plays against the Bulldogs.

Offensively, redshirt freshman running back Trey Sanders finally got things going on the ground. Najee Harris led the team in carries (21) and rushing yards (119), but Sanders had a better yards-per-carry mark (6.7 versus 5.7 for Harris).

On the night, Sanders turned 12 carries into 80 yards.

Alabama will be off next Saturday before traveling to LSU on Nov. 14 to take on the Tigers in Baton Rouge. After another loss by LSU to Auburn, the game won’t have the same level of excitement as last year’s matchup, but it will still be a chance for revenge.

Follow Clint Lamb on Twitter @ClintRLamb.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State: Halftime Report

The Alabama Crimson Tide is currently up on the Mississippi State Bulldogs at halftime. The team is dominating both sides of the football.

Alabama did not have its best start offensively on Saturday against Mississippi State. The first two drives ended in a field goal and a punt for the Crimson Tide, but things took off from there.

Heading into halftime, Alabama is up 27-0 on the Bulldogs.

Even without star receiver Jaylen Waddle, the Crimson Tide offense has continued to thrive. DeVonta Smith, the undisputed No. 1 option now, hauled in nine catches for 159 yards and threes scores.

The senior might actually beat his receiving record set against Ole Miss in 2019 when he posted 11 catches for 274 yards and five touchdowns against the Rebels.

Quarterback Mac Jones, while having a shaky start to the game, got things going with an efficient first-half performance. He finished the half 17-of-23 for 217 yards with those three touchdowns to Smith.

The defense was also fantastic. On seven drives, Mississippi State went three-and-out on six of them. The sixth drive only went four plays for 13 yards before a punt as well. State has totaled only 38 yards and are 0-for-7 on third downs.

The time of possession has heavily favored Alabama as well. They held onto the ball for 19 minutes and 44 seconds to only 10 minutes and 16 seconds for State.

Here is how the entire state sheet looks for both teams at halftime, thanks to the hard work at Stats.Broadcast.com.

Stay tuned for more updates from Roll Tide Wire, part of the USA TODAY Sports College Wire network!

Follow Clint Lamb on Twitter @ClintRLamb.

Roll Tide Wire staff score predictions for Alabama vs. Mississippi State

The staff at Roll Tide Wire give their predictions for the Alabama game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Who wins the Week 6 matchup?

We have officially reached Week 6 of the SEC football season. Alabama (5-0) is coming off an impressive 48-17 win against Tennessee, but Mississippi State (1-3) will present a whole new set of challenges.

Yes, the offense has struggled for the Bulldogs. And yes, the Crimson Tide is a 30.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM.

Alabama is fighting complacency, however. Despite the massive loss of star wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, the team seems to be moving in the right direction. But with that movement can create overconfidence, and that is something head coach Nick Saban wants to avoid.

The crew here at Roll Tide Wire decided to bring you our predictions for Saturday’s matchup. Check it out below.

AJ Spurr, Contributor

Despite Jaylen Waddle being out, Alabama’s depth and ability to reload will keep the Crimson Tide offense alive. The Bulldogs defense has proven to be weaker than needed in order to contain Najee Harris and defend against Mac Jones’ impressive season.
The Mississippi State run game will finally make Pete Golding’s defensive line look like the front we all expected to see. Mike Leach and his pass-first offensive style could cause an issue for the Alabama secondary, but pressure on KJ Costello will force him to get rid of the ball quickly.

Final score: Alabama 56, Mississippi State 10

Clint Lamb, Managing Editor

There are a lot of signs pointing towards Alabama blowing out Mississippi State. The offense has been unstoppable for the Crimson Tide, and the Bulldogs haven’t been able to get anything going offensively since a record-setting performance against LSU in Week 1. Advantage goes to Alabama.

Defensively, the Tide seem to be moving in the right direction.

Yes, the  opposing offenses haven’t been spectacular, as Georgia and Tennessee both bring more of a vanilla style than some of the other teams Alabama has played this season. But third-down efficiency and tackling looks improved — at least on paper.

The Bulldogs also seems to have a formidable defense. It doesn’t compare to Georgia’s defense, however, and the Crimson Tide still wasn’t consistently slowed down. In other words, it is unlikely that State defense has much — if any — success on Saturday.

With all that being said, this game isn’t won on paper. It’s won on the field, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bulldogs make a backdoor cover. I could easily see Alabama cruising to a large lead early before pulling starters late and allowing that to be the difference.

Final score: Alabama 47, Mississippi State 17

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BAMA BEAT: College football picks for Week 6 (Ep. 365)

Cecil Hurt, Clint Lamb and Hunter Johnson are back with picks for Week 6 of the SEC football season.

Cecil Hurt, Clint Lamb and Hunter Johnson are back with picks for Week 6 of the SEC football season. Some of the top games include LSU-Auburn, Missouri-Florida, Georgia-Kentucky, Penn State-Ohio State and, of course, Alabama-Mississippi State.

 

Stay tuned for more episodes of The Bama Beat podcast, brought to you by Wickles Pickles through The Tuscaloosa News and TideSports.com!

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