Alabama at Florida odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Alabama at Florida odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) and Florida Gators (2-0) meet Saturday at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Alabama vs. Florida odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

The Crimson Tide, No. 1 in the AFCA Coaches Poll, powered by USA TODAY Sports, won their first two games with relative ease. They worked over Miami 44-13 in a neutral-site game in Atlanta, before pushing past FCS Mercer by a 48-14 count.

The No. 9 Gators trail 26-14 in the all-time series and dropped each of the last seven head-to-head meetings. Each of the last three contests were in the SEC Championship Game, including a 52-46 loss last season.

Alabama at Florida odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at noon ET.

  • Money line: Alabama -600 (bet $600 to win $100) | Florida +420 (bet $100 to win $420)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Alabama -14.5 (-108) | Florida +14.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 59.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Alabama at Florida odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Alabama 41, Florida 24

Money line

Alabama (-600) will cost you six times your potential return, and that’s just too risky in a battle between Top 10 teams, especially taking the favorite on the road.

AVOID, and focus on the spread.

Against the spread

ALABAMA -14.5 (-108) heads into Saturday favored by more than two touchdowns. At the beginning of the season, this might have seemed like a crazy line; however, after completely burying Miami, and having an offense that looks like a well-oiled machine, it isn’t so crazy.

QB Bryce Young has looked tremendous so far. Florida also has a new quarterback. Actually, it has two; QB Emory Jones has been starting, but QB Anthony Richardson has shown tremendous athleticism and versatility. Both are dual-threat options, but facing a ‘Bama defense is much different than lighting up subpar FAU and South Florida defenses.

We’ll get a good idea where this Florida team is, and it’ll likely to go down by more than two touchdowns against a superior team.

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Over/Under

OVER 59.5 (-112) is the play. Remember, last season these teams met in an epic 52-46 battle, easily hitting the Over. Yes, QBs Mac Jones and Kyle Trask were under center for these teams, but the replacements have looked effective.

The Over is 7-3-1 in Alabama’s last 11 games against teams with a wining record, while the Over is 5-0 in Florida’s last five contests against winning teams. Look for plenty of fireworks.

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College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:

Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Florida / Georgia / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News

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WATCH: Alabama Crimson Tide At Florida Gators – Key Facts, Stats

The Florida Gators get another chance for their first win against the Alabama Crimson Tide since Tim Tebow was Florida’s quarterback.

The Florida Gators have lost seven consecutive games against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Only one of those games was Gainesville Fla., the site for Saturday’s showdown between the No. 9 Gators and No. 1 Tide. Their most recent meeting was the 2020 SEC championship game in Atlanta, which Alabama won 52-46.

Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll, powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Florida won 22 of its past 23 September home games, although most of those opponents weren’t exactly of Alabama’s caliber. (Then again, few teams are.) The Tide have won eight consecutive games against AP-ranked teams, which is among the reasons Alabama is favored in this one. Go to Tipico Sportsbook for the most updated odds:

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First look: Alabama at Florida odds and lines

Previewing the Alabama at Florida Week 3 matchup, with college football odds, trends and head-to-head records.

The Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) and Florida Gators (2-0) meet at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla., Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Alabama vs. Florida odds and lines; check back for our college football picks and predictions.

The Crimson Tide enter Week 3 at No. 1 in the AFCA Coaches Poll, powered by USA TODAY Sports. Alabama paddled Miami in a neutral-site game in Atlanta by a 44-13 count before topping FCS Mercer 48-14 last weekend. The Tide led 31-0 at halftime and powered down in the second half to help stay healthy for this week.

The Gators check in at No. 9 in the rankings, and they have coasted by two in-state foes. Florida opened with a 35-14 win over FAU at The Swamp Sept. 4, and they polished off South Florida in Tampa by a 42-20 count, although they failed to cover in each outing.

Alabama at Florida odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 5:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Alabama -650 (bet $650 to win $100) | Florida +440 (bet $100 to win $440)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Alabama -15.5, -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Florida +15.5, -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 58.5, O: -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | U: -108 (bet $108 to win $100)

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2021 betting stats:

  • ML: Alabama 2-0 | Florida 2-0
  • ATS: Alabama 1-1 | Florida 0-2
  • O/U: Alabama 1-1 | Florida 1-1

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Alabama at Florida head-to-head

These two institutions have met 40 times on the gridiron, with the Crimson Tide leading the all-time series 26-14. The past three meetings were in the SEC Championship Game, including an epic 52-46 Alabama win last season.

The last time these teams met in the regular season was Sept. 20, 2014 in Tuscaloosa, a 42-21 win by Bama. The last meeting in Gainesville was Oct. 1, 2011, a 38-10 win by the Tide. The Over cashed in five straight meetings.

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College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:

Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Florida / Georgia / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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SEC Championship Game: Alabama vs. Florida odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s SEC Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators, with college football betting picks, tips and predictions.

The Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) square off with the Florida Gators (8-2) in the SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Alabama-Florida college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The Crimson Tide are No. 1 and the Gators are No. 11 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Alabama vs. Florida: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Alabama -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100) | Florida +650 (bet $100 to win $650)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Alabama -17.5 (-115) | Florida +17.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 74.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Alabama vs. Florida: Three things to know

  1. It’s a little choppy how we got here, but this is Alabama’s fourth undefeated regular season since head coach Nick Saban took over the program in 2007. The Crimson Tide have crushed competition all year with the closest any opponent has come to beating them being a 63-48 win at Ole Miss Oct. 10.
  2. Florida ruined whatever chance it had at making the College Football Playoff by losing 37-34 lat home to LSU last week as a 24-point favorite. It is a program that is trending up with head coach Dan Mullen in his third season. The Gators have a 29-7 overall record and have won both of their bowl games since hiring Mullen in 2018.
  3. Alabama has lost once to Florida since Saban became head coach and it was all the way back in 2008. Since then, the Crimson Tide have won seven straight and covered the spread in five of those games against the Gators.

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Alabama vs. Florida: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Alabama 45, Florida 24

Money line (ML)

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. Alabama has won the SEC title game seven times in the Saban-era but there’s no way I am risking 10 times the return for a Crimson Tide outright win.

Against the spread (ATS)

As much as I loathe laying this many points, I cannot make a case for Florida covering in this game. Alabama has two Heisman Trophy candidates on offense in QB Mac Jones and WR DeVonta Smith.

Anyone could say if the Crimson Tide make mistakes then a good Florida team can hang around, but the Gators don’t have the defense to force any Alabama blunders. According to Football Outsiders, Alabama has the 11th-highest defensive FEI rating and Florida is 44th.

The Crimson Tide is on the plus side of the ATS margin in every situational trend I could find and has a 32.7-point average margin of victory this year. To Florida’s credit, it hasn’t played a bad offensive game all season and has scored at least 31 points in every game. So there’s that.

I’ll TAKE ALABAMA -17.5 (-115) for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

I LEAN slightly to the UNDER 74.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit because it’s just too many points and the clock should be ticking most of the game.

Jones has the second-highest completion percentage in the country and Florida QB Kyle Trask has the eighth-highest so it’s not like the ball will be hitting the ground a lot.

For as prolific as both offenses have been this season, they each rank in the middle of the pack in plays per game. The talent on both defenses plus the high-pressure situation should equal less than 75 points.

Also see:

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Additional college sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:

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