The Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) square off with the Florida Gators (8-2) in the SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Alabama-Florida college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Crimson Tide are No. 1 and the Gators are No. 11 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Alabama vs. Florida: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Alabama -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100) | Florida +650 (bet $100 to win $650)
- Against the spread/ATS: Alabama -17.5 (-115) | Florida +17.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 74.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Alabama vs. Florida: Three things to know
- It’s a little choppy how we got here, but this is Alabama’s fourth undefeated regular season since head coach Nick Saban took over the program in 2007. The Crimson Tide have crushed competition all year with the closest any opponent has come to beating them being a 63-48 win at Ole Miss Oct. 10.
- Florida ruined whatever chance it had at making the College Football Playoff by losing 37-34 lat home to LSU last week as a 24-point favorite. It is a program that is trending up with head coach Dan Mullen in his third season. The Gators have a 29-7 overall record and have won both of their bowl games since hiring Mullen in 2018.
- Alabama has lost once to Florida since Saban became head coach and it was all the way back in 2008. Since then, the Crimson Tide have won seven straight and covered the spread in five of those games against the Gators.
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Alabama vs. Florida: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Alabama 45, Florida 24
Money line (ML)
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. Alabama has won the SEC title game seven times in the Saban-era but there’s no way I am risking 10 times the return for a Crimson Tide outright win.
Against the spread (ATS)
As much as I loathe laying this many points, I cannot make a case for Florida covering in this game. Alabama has two Heisman Trophy candidates on offense in QB Mac Jones and WR DeVonta Smith.
Anyone could say if the Crimson Tide make mistakes then a good Florida team can hang around, but the Gators don’t have the defense to force any Alabama blunders. According to Football Outsiders, Alabama has the 11th-highest defensive FEI rating and Florida is 44th.
The Crimson Tide is on the plus side of the ATS margin in every situational trend I could find and has a 32.7-point average margin of victory this year. To Florida’s credit, it hasn’t played a bad offensive game all season and has scored at least 31 points in every game. So there’s that.
I’ll TAKE ALABAMA -17.5 (-115) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
I LEAN slightly to the UNDER 74.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit because it’s just too many points and the clock should be ticking most of the game.
Jones has the second-highest completion percentage in the country and Florida QB Kyle Trask has the eighth-highest so it’s not like the ball will be hitting the ground a lot.
For as prolific as both offenses have been this season, they each rank in the middle of the pack in plays per game. The talent on both defenses plus the high-pressure situation should equal less than 75 points.
Also see:
- 5 bold predictions for the SEC Championship (Roll Tide Wire)
- Here’s what Florida must do on offense against Alabama (Gators Wire)
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