3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Chiefs in the AFC championship

3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Chiefs in the AFC championship

The Buffalo Bills will play the Kansas City Chiefs on the road at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC championship game this Sunday.

These teams clash while on hot streaks. The Bills have won 12 of their last 13 meaningful games while the Chiefs have won 20 of their last 21 meaningful games. Their lone loss over that time was to the Bills.

The Bills beat them 30-21 in Week 11 this year. Quarterback Josh Allen accounted for 317 total yards and a pair of touchdowns while the team converted on 9 of 15 third-down plays in the victory.

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Patrick Mahomes threw a pair of interceptions in the loss, but the Chiefs have won the last three playoff games over the Bills and it will be tougher to force them into mistakes this time around. Kansas City are favored by 1.5 points at home.

To slay the dragon and advance to the Super Bowl, the Bills will need to execute their game plan.

Here are three keys to a Bills win vs. the Chiefs:

Execution in pass coverage

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Mahomes is good enough in the pocket that he can beat you even when everyone is covered. He’s great at buying an extra second or two and finding someone uncovered down the field, and in the playoffs, tight end Travis Kelce has often been that person.

The two have incredible rapport and always find open grass when things break down. It will take multiple defenders every pass play to shut them down.

The Bills defense will need to communicate purposefully and rapidly, especially in the middle of the field, where Kelce likes to roam. If there’s one man out of place, he’ll make you pay like he has in the past.

The good news for Buffalo is the middle of their defense is much healthier this postseason compared to last. During the 2023 playoffs, they were down both linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, this year they are both expected to be out there occupying the middle.

Keep feeding James Cook

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Handing the ball to James Cook might have been included in about ten weekly “keys to victory” this year. And it continues to prove effective under offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

The Bills went up against two of the best run defenses in their first two playoff matchups and were able to control the game on the ground. The Bills handed both the Denver Broncos (wild card) and Baltimore Ravens (divisional) the most rushing yards they’ve allowed this season.

The Bills have averaged 178.5 yards on the ground this postseason. This figure would have been good for third-most in the league during the regular season.

The Chiefs ranked ninth in defense rushing DVOA this year and eighth in rushing yards allowed per game. They’ve been a decent group, but haven’t stuffed the run like Baltimore or Denver.

Igniting Cook and the rushing game will open things up for the Bills’ passing game, especially in the middle of the field where the Chiefs have allowed the most yards to tight ends in the NFL this year (1,191).

Win matchups on the defensive line

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Getting to Mahomes and taking him down for a sack is easier said than done. But, getting consistent pressure could force errant passes or throwaways, which can make a big difference in the playoffs.

While there has been a lot of talk about the Chiefs rotating pieces on the offensive line this year and that they’ve struggled at times, Mahomes has a way of masking their offensive line’s deficiencies. They rank 16th in the NFL in sacks allowed this year (41), and if they had someone who couldn’t manipulate the pocket or make off-script plays, they’d be much higher on the list.

The Bills had 224 total pressures in the regular season, good for eighth in the NFL. They’ll need to mix things up at times by showing different fronts and blitzes, but the Bills also have some guys who can win their one-on-one matchup.

Von Miller, Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, AJ Epenesa, and others will need to capitalize on chances to get after Mahomes Sunday.

If they can force the Chiefs into unfavorable down-and-distances and make Mahomes uncomfortable in the pocket during those plays, it would go a long way toward their chances at making the Super Bowl.

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Bills’ AJ Epenesa post-Jets win: ‘It just shows that this is what we can do’

Bills’ AJ Epenesa post-Jets win: ‘It just shows that this is what we can do’

The Bills won the second of their two regular-season matchups 40-14 Sunday, bringing the Jets a game closer to landing in their offseason.

The Buffalo defense returned to form following a three-game stretch in which they allowed 1,357 yards, 86 first downs, and 107 points.

“I thought coach (Bobby) Babich and the defensive staff did a great job during the week,” Bills HC Sean McDermott said to the media. “Players played extremely fast, physical. And then when you play physical and you play fast, the ball tends to come out and to find you.”

The Bills held Aaron Rodgers to 112 passing yards. They caused two interceptions by corner Christian Benford and defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, as well as a safety by defensive end Greg Rousseau.

“That was awesome,” Bills QB Josh Allen said about the defensive effort. “Playing on short fields, it makes the game a lot easier, I’ll tell you that. Our defense, man, they played lights out today. They had juice, they had energy.”

Defensive tackle Ed Oliver added three tackles, three for a loss, and a sack, and forced a Rodgers fumble that linebacker Matt Milano recovered. Defensive end A.J. Epenesa added four tackles, two for a loss, and a sack that led to a safety. And outside linebacker Von Miller had a sack, two tackles, and a tackle for a loss.

“Yeah, it was dope just for us to go out there and reap the benefits of our hard work, the work that we put in week after week,” said Rousseau who blew up a play for a turnover-on-downs and tipped a pass for the Jordan Phillips interception on another. “To have one of these games, it was great.”

The Bills built a 40-0 lead, shutting out the Jets for the first 53 minutes of the game until the 6:59 mark of the 4th quarter when former Bills QB-turned Jets backup Tyrod Taylor scored twice in relief of Aaron Rodgers.

“I wouldn’t say need … and I don’t want to say reassurance, either,” explained Epenesa about the type of game the defense had. “But it just shows that this is what we can do and this is the standard that needs to be upheld.”

For the Bills to have a chance at winning in the three rounds of the playoffs to make it to and compete in the Super Bowl, their defense will need to keep this type of performance going as just that type of standard game-to-game.

“Sometimes you just need that win to kind of refresh your mind on who you really are,” Oliver said. “Everybody had fun [and] everybody got a piece of the action.”

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Bills’ AJ Epenesa records safety vs. Jets (video)

Bills’ AJ Epenesa records safety vs. Jets (video)

The Jets were down to their backups at both tackle positions on their offensive line for a moment against the Bills in Week 17. It cost them.

With first-round rookie Olu Fashanu (foot) on injured reserve and veteran Morgan Moses (knee) briefly leaving the contest, Bills pass rushers AJ Epenesa and Greg Rousseau were chomping at the bit. Especially since the Jets offense was on their own goal line.

Epenesa made them pay.

Near the end of the first half, the Bills went up 9-0 over the Jets as Epenesa blew by backup Max Mitchell and sacked quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the end zone. It was his first-career safety.

Check out the play below:

Slow-starting Bills hope to get it going early in Week 8

Slow-starting Bills hope to get it going early in Week 8

Despite the Buffalo Bills jumping out to an impressive 5-2 record to start the 2024 NFL season, there has been one thing that they have constantly had to overcome.

We know what you’re thinking. They’ve had to overcome a bunch of injuries. But that is something you can’t control. What you can control, however, is how fast you start games, and the Bills have been starting slow for much of the season.

Through seven weeks, the first-half Bills and second-half Bills have looked like totally different teams. They have a +6 point differential in the first half and a plus-57 point differential in the second half. Although it is mostly the defense struggling out of the gate, the offense has started slowly in games as well.

“In all but maybe one or two games we really haven’t clicked early on,” said quarterback Josh Allen after practice this week. “It’s taken us a couple drives to feel out what the defense is doing and getting into a rhythm. Getting off to a fast start is the utmost important thing going forward.”

On the other side of the ball, opposing teams have scored 95 first-half points against the Bills and just 41 second-half points. The team has allowed just three second-half touchdowns all year.

The adjustments by the defense are paying off later in games, but still, it is taking time to settle in.

“Once you get settled in and get that feeling, it just starts to be in flow mode,” said defensive end A.J. Epenesa via WKBW-TV. “We definitely have the capability of hitting that sooner, it’s just a matter of being disciplined.”

Head coach Sean McDermott, even with the great start to the year, knows there is always room to improve.

“There’s always something to work on, even when you’re winning,” he said. “We gotta get back to the process… make sure we’re dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s and ready to execute.”

The Bills will need to be mindful of how they start the game in Week 8. The Seattle Seahawks (4-3) have the type of pass-heavy offense and crowd environment that can run you out of the building if you can’t get it going quickly enough. The Bills face a difficult task on the road.

What would really help the Bills is a fast start that helps take the air out of the crowd early on at Lumen Field.

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ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky: Bills defensive line is ‘starting to show itself’

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky: ‘(Bills’) defensive line is starting to show itself’

After a slow start in the first half of Week 1, the Buffalo Bills’ pass rush has been dominant to start the season, and it has national media personalities buzzing about their potential this year.

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky joined the Bills’ radio program “One Bills Live” this week and complimented the Bills’ D-line, more specifically the pass rush.

“It’s two weeks into the season, but I do think the [Bills’] defensive line is starting to show itself when it gets to Ed [Oliver], [AJ] Epenesa, Greg [Rousseau], and Von [Miller] in some of those obvious pass situations,” Orlovsky said.

There were concerns about the pass rush going into the season after losing Leonard Floyd to the San Francisco 49ers, but Rousseau has taken his game to another level in year three and Miller looks like his old self. Parlay that with a steady force in Oliver in the middle, and this puts their pass rush among the best in the league to start the season.

“I think the way that Buffalo is handling Von is really smart… I think Greg is really starting to show himself… Ed obviously had another big game,” Orlovsky said.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Bills have the fourth-best pass-rush grade in the NFL, trailing only the Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. The run defense has looked middle-of-the-pack thus far, but it has done enough to put the opposing offenses in second-and-long and third-and-long situations. That is when the pass rush is getting there in a blink, some ending in sacks but most affecting the throw from the quarterback.

Through two weeks, the Bills are tied for tenth in sacks (6), and tied for fourth in interceptions (3).

The Bills’ pass rush will try to disrupt the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense on “Monday Night Football,” much like the Browns did in Week 2 when they posted ten hurries and four sacks on 17 total pressures.

“You do not want either of those tackles single blocking Rousseau and or Von right now,” warned Orlovsky regarding the Jaguars’ offensive tackles.

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Bills create cap space by restructuring A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones contracts

#Bills create cap space by restructuring A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones contracts:

On the brink of the 2024 NFL regular season, Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane gave himself a little wiggle room on the salary cap incase a move comes during the upcoming year.

According to ESPN’s Field Yates, the team has restructured the contracts of pass rusher AJ Epenesa and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones. Reportedly the moves have opened $2,78 million in salary cap space:

Prior to restructuring, Over The Cap had the Bills over the current salary cap. Now updated, Buffalo as $2.7M in cap space moving forward.

Both Epenesa and Jones re-signed in Buffalo this offseason. Epenesa inked a two-year , $12M deal this spring which was followed by Jones’ two-year, $16M extension.

Beane likely does not have a pending move in mind, but he has not been scared to make in-season moves which require salary cap space. In 2023, Buffalo traded for cornerback Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline.

Bills Wire will provide all roster and salary cap updates throughout the 2024 season.

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PFF: Bills made good decision in re-signing AJ Epenesa

PFF: #Bills made good decision in re-signing AJ Epenesa:

The Buffalo Bills have gotten the Pro Football Focus for one of their offseason decisions: Re-signing AJ Epenesa.

Epenesa’s rookie contract expired this offseason and the Bills had a decision with a tight budget. Bring Epenesa back or let him walk in free agency?

In the end, Epenesa is back on a two-year extension and the likes of Leonard Floyd left. He signed with the San Francisco 49ers.

Epenesa finished 2023 with 6.5 sacks and was up-and-down, however, the football analytics outlet believes it was the right decision to re-sign him. PFF named a favorite move in free agency for every NFL team. Buffalo bringing back Epenesa was their choice for the Bills.

Here’s why PFF was a fan of the move:

2023 PFF Grade: 75.8 (31st/112)
2023 PFF WAR: 0.06 (49th)
Fit/need grade: A
Value grade: A

Contract: Two years, $12 million ($6 million per year), $10.06 million total guaranteed

PFF projected contract: Three years, $22.5 million ($7.5 million per year), $14.5 million total guaranteed

Epenesa has two straight seasons with strong pass-rush production, notching pressure rates above 10% and pass-rush grades above 70.0. He’s a big edge who has gotten faster off the ball as he’s developed, and he’ll still be just 25 in Week 1 of 2024, so there could be more improvement ahead.

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Projecting market value for Bills pending free agents

Projecting market value for #Bills pending free agents:

The Buffalo Bills have several important players who are on the cusp of leaving via free agency. General manager Brandon Beane has some difficult decisions to make, as he needs to balance a challenging salary cap situation. At this time, Spotrac highlights the Bills are still $41 million over the cap.

The Bills still have some time to ink these players to extensions. However, several of these players are on the verge of a big payday.

The legal tampering period begins on March 11. Once this date hits, it’s a good chance that these players will be finding new homes for the 2024 season.

Here is a look at the projected market value for the Bills top pending free agents based off Spotrac’s projections:

5 pending free agents the Bills should consider re-signing in 2024

5 pending free agents the #Bills should consider re-signing in 2024:

The Buffalo Bills have plenty of free agents slated to hit the open market.

The Bills have time to still sign players to extensions, but it’s never so cut-and-dry. According to Over The Cap, Buffalo is estimated to be more than $40 million over the 2024 NFL salary cap.

Moves must be made to get there and general manager Brandon Beane will earn his salary with the decisions ahead.

But Beane’s work is not the type of operation that’s never been completed before. Teams and players can restructure contracts, move dollars and cents around, and create cap space.

Once that’s done, Beane will then consider who to bring in and who to re-sign. Here are five pending free agents the Bills should take a look into re-signing this offseason:

Full list of Bills players who will be free agents this offseason

Who will stay and who will go?

As another season of Buffalo Bills football has come to an end, so have another series of contracts that have been signed.

Whether it be grizzled veterans or players seeing the end of their rookie contracts, there are plenty of faces who will not long be under contract in Buffalo in March when free agency opens.

The Bills have plenty of time until then to sign players to extensions, but it’s never so cut-and-dry. According to Over The Cap, Buffalo is estimated to be $49 million over the 2024 NFL salary cap.

Moves must be made and general manager Brandon Beane will earn his own salary with the decisions ahead.

But what you’re here for: The full list of Bills free agents following the 2023 season is below: