Tag: Air Force Falcons

Air Force vs. Robert Morris: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Air Force vs. Robert Morris: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction Can Air Force Win Their 17th Consecutive Season Opener Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire The 2023 Season Kick’s Off for Air Force Against the Robert Morris Colonials. …

Air Force vs. Robert Morris: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Can Air Force Win Their 17th Consecutive Season Opener

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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The 2023 Season Kick’s Off for Air Force Against the Robert Morris Colonials.

WEEK 1: Air Force Falcons 0-0 (0-0) vs. Robert Morris Colonias 0-0 (0-0)

WHEN: Saturday, September 2nd — 11:00 A.M. MT/ 10:00 A.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 92F. WNW winds shifting to SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

TV: Altitude Sports

STREAM: GoAirForceFalcons.com / MWNetwork

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver; SIRIUS 388, SXM App 978

Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force has never played Robert Morris.

WEBSITES: RMUColonials.com, the official Robert Morris athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Robert Morris | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 44.8

FEI PROJECTION: Not Available

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Not Available

In what seems to be a tradition, Air Force opens their season against an FCS opponent yet again. The 2023 edition of FCS opener comes by way of the Robert Morris University Colonials.

A once proud contender out of Northeast Conference, now playing in the Big South, RMU, affectionately known locally as Bobby Mo is coming off of a dreadful season. Dreadful may actually be kind. The Colonials were winless in 2022, going 0-11.

Entering his sixth years as the head coach at RMU, Bernard Clark is in desperate need of a turnaround. With just one winning season coming back in 2019, he’s posted an overall record of 13-34, going just 9-23 in Conference games.

By complete contrast, Troy Calhoun and Air Force enter the 2023 campaign having recorded double digit wins each of the last three full seasons. On top of that, they’ve never lost a contest against an FCS opponent.

It would be a monumental stumble if the Falcon’s fell victim to the Colonials at home in this season opener. But stranger things have happened. Or have they? To avoid validating either way, here are a few keys to this years home opener.

Keys to an Air Force Victory

give nothing

Give nothing, and that means absolutely nothing. Air Force is superior to this team in every conceivable facet of the game. So to do anything that gives RMU any dissolution that they are a threat leave Colorado Springs victorious is unnecessary and unacceptable.

Don’t give the ball away, take penalties or offer a special teams freebee. There should be absolutely no reason starters are needed to carry a helmet onto the field in the second half. Avoiding these things will help ensure that.

the chemistry lab

One of the great advantages to playing an inferior opponent to open the season is it allows you find your identity. We all know who Air Force wants to be offensively; a relentless ground and pound attack.

The thing is, they are going to be breaking in a new quarterback, full-back and multiple offensive lineman. This is a great opportunity to allow the Diesels up front to gel, and let all those skilled players behind them work on their trade. As the game wears on, you should hope to see these units coming together.

arrive healthy – leave healthy

While merely “staying healthy” isn’t going to put points on the board or keep them off, it is still a critical objective in week 1. The Falcons have a few players still nursing injuries entering the season, so adding any names to the infirmary by way of a game against Robert Morris would not be good.

We all expect a vanilla game plan, hopefully simple execution is a good recipe for a clean bill of health at the games end.

Prediction

My good friend John Steilner was a three year starter on the offensive line for Robert Morris during a run that the program saw a lot of success. Behind Johnny’s steady blocking, I could all but guarantee the Colonials would crack the end zone against Air Force.

But John is now a family man and has a very successful career in the Energy Technology industry.

While Robert Morris on the other hand, couldn’t muster 10 points per game on offense last year, and the defense they face on Saturday are not going to do any favors for improving that number.

Offensively, Air Force is breaking in a few new starters in key positions, namely quarterback and fullback. The stable of runners at fullback in tandem with the NCAA’s leader in yards per carry for 2022, John Lee Eldridge III should allow the run game to excel in spite of the departure of all time great, Brad Roberts.

The quarterback competition between a trio of seniors should play out well into this game as Zac Larrier, Jensen Jones and Ben Brittan should all see significant playing time. I don’t know if this is the kind of game that validates a starting quarterback for the season, but live game action will only help the process.

Enjoy the rest of Colorado, Robert Morris. Because I don’t think you’ll find ‘The Springs’ very hospitable. Air Force takes this one by as much as they want.

Air Force ‘a lot’ – Robert Morris 6

 

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Air Force football’s new alternate jersey is a cringey homage to a WWII raid in Japan

This is just cringey.

If you have the opportunity to make light of war by associating it with a football game, my guess is you should probably just not.

Apparently, Air Force didn’t get the memo.

The academy unveiled its new alternate football uniforms this week, paying homage to the 1942 Doolittle Raid in Japan during World War II, and while the uniforms themselves are probably fine, everything Air Force had to roll out alongside the uniforms for context are why the idea should have been ditched.

“An ambush,” read an uncomfortable tweet from Air Force with a quote from Lt. Col. James Doolittle that, when viewed through the lens of a football game, is just as cringeworthy considering the severity of devastation from the war.

The actual context is that Doolittle’s Raid was the first American retaliation for the attack on Pearl Harbor. The damage was comparatively minor to other devastation of the war, but the raid is said to have provided an important boost to American morale.

Of course, this is all important history. It happened, and I’m not saying we need to act like it didn’t. But we also don’t need to honor an airstrike as part of a football game.

Air Force has been doing this Airpower Legacy Series since 2016, rolling out alternate uniforms that honor some piece of its history. And past uniforms, as I recall, have pulled this off quite well. This year’s, however, honoring an actual attack that proceeded the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki — fresh on people’s minds with the release of Oppenheimer in theaters this summer — falls short of that.

Last year’s uniform paid homage to Space Force, and it was incredible. In 2021, Air Force honored the B-52 Stratofortress — a piece of equipment, not an actual raid. The 2020 uniforms were a moving tribute to the Tuskegee Airmen. In the future, they should return their focus to honoring those who stepped up in horrific circumstances and not glorify the horrors themselves.

Jay Johnson names LSU baseball’s Friday night starter

Paul Skenes will be the Tigers’ ace on the mound to start the season.

Tiger fans, it’s the most wonderful time of the year once again.

That’s right, It’s baseball season. We are less than three weeks away from first pitch against Western Michigan, and head coach [autotag]Jay Johnson[/autotag] met with the media on Friday to discuss some things about the team this season.

One of those things was the question of who will be the new No. 1 pitcher for the Tigers. [autotag]Blake Money[/autotag] was the Friday night starter last season, and he is back once again, but he is not going to be the No. 1 pitcher this time. That role is going to [autotag]Paul Skenes[/autotag], the transfer from Air Force.

Skenes is a 6-foot-6, 235-pound junior right-handed pitcher/utility player. Skenes actually played against LSU in 2021 when the Tigers started the season with Air Force. Since he arrived on campus, Skenes and fellow transfer [autotag]Tommy White[/autotag] have been garnering all types of hype and headlines.

If they live up to anywhere near as good as we think they are, this will be a special season.

Air Force vs. San Diego State: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Can the Falcons finally beat the Aztecs again?

Air Force vs. San Diego State: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Can The Falcons Win Their Season Finale?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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The Aztecs Host Air Force To End The Regular Season

WEEK 13: Air Force Falcons 8-3 (4-3) vs. San Diego State Aztecs 7-4 (5-2)

WHEN: Saturday, November 26th — 7:00 P.M. MT/ 6:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego, CA)

WEATHER: Mostly clear skies. Low 47F. Winds light and variable.

TV: CBS Sports Network Dave Ryan (play-by-play), Ross Tucker (analyst), Brandon Baylor (sidelines)

STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver; SIRIUS 388, SXM App 978

Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the all-time series vs. San Diego State, 19-18. The Aztecs defeated the Falcons last year 20-14, for their ninth consecutive win in the series.

LAST WEEK: Air Force defeated Colorado State 24-12. San Diego State beat New Mexico 34-10.

WEBSITES: GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): San Diego State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 6

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 10.6

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force Win Probability of 50.14%  (Projected Score 27.33- 27.28)

Where has the season gone? Somehow we have already arrived at the final week of the regular season. Wipe away those tears though, we are in for a treat as the Air Force Falcons head West to San Diego, to take on the Aztecs. These are two of the top teams in the Mountain West, despite being eliminated from Mountain West Championship contention.

San Diego State has hit their stride since Jalen Mayden took over at quarterback, six games prior. In that span the Aztecs are 5-1, and more importantly, the offense has found a much improved passing attack. Prior to Mayden taking the reigns, SDSU was 2-3, averaging just 14.25 points per game against FBS competition. They have nearly doubled that production since, at just over 26 per game.

Like the Aztecs, Air Force enters Saturday’s contest on a three game winning streak. Their formula for victory hasn’t changed much from game to game; feed Brad Roberts the ball, and play really stingy defense. For a majority of their games, this has been a winning recipe. However, they have yet to beat an FBS team with a winning record to date, and their season finale against San Diego State provides one last regular season opportunity.

A tall order when you consider that Air Force hasn’t been able to beat the Aztecs since 2009. On top of that, as much credit as we have given their quarterback play over the second half of the season, it’s the defense that has really doubled down. True to form, San Diego State has been stellar over the last five games, featuring the nations top run defense while forcing an average of two turnovers per game and eight TFL’s. The Falcons are going to need a complete game to have a chance at ending a brutal losing streak to the Aztecs.

Keys to an Air Force Victory

3rd down

One of the things that have really helped feed into the time-of-possession dominance that the Falcons has featured is their success on 3rd down. Air Force is 21st offensively and 22nd defensively on third down. That means Troy Calhoun’s bunch is ending the oppositions drives, while sustaining them when in they have the ball. This gives them a decided advantage when you consider the way the Falcons play, limiting opposition possessions.

By contrast, 3rd down is one of the few areas that the Aztec defense has been very marginal at, and offensively they have been down-right bad. Both units have improved as the season’s moved along, but their 118th ranked 3rd down offense will be up against it, facing Air Force.

Converting these critical downs provide a lot of obvious benefits. In a game that looks to have a razor thin margin for error for either team, everything is magnified. These drive extenders and enders don’t guarantee points,  but they are certainly enablers. And when they don’t result in points, they are constantly creating an advantage in an area that the Aztecs absolutely dominated the Falcons last year. Field Possession.

field position

As just mentioned, San Diego State kept Air Force in a hold all game long last year when it came to field position. This was certainly in part to having an all-time great punter, as well as a defense that was very stingy.

In another game that isn’t likely to see a ton of points scored, the Falcons have got to be better in this area. Carson Bay has played fine in the punting game for Air Force, and he doesn’t need to be Matt Araiza. It’s more about getting a few of those drives extended on offense to be able to flip field position without asking a guy to boom 75 yard punts.

The less yards the Falcons are challenged to march offensively, the better. It’s been documented just how stingy the Aztecs have been on defense, in particular against the run. A short field that could enable points will be at a premium on Saturday.

mental fortitude

Troy Calhoun coached teams typically are discipline and do not take many penalties. While they’ve had some critical ones hit at the most inopportune times this year, they have still been the sixth least penalized team in the country. Compared to Brady Hoke’s squad who are 111th nationally, getting assessed nearly twice the number of penalties per game as Air Force. Those penalties can hinder a team in so many ways, especially in a close contest.

The other part of mental makeup that has to be considered is decision making. Whether that is on the coaching staff or the players,  the Falcons must have full brain engagement on Saturday. Forcing throws into coverage, compromising pitches or blown assignments in the secondary could prove fatal in this game. It’s incumbent on the whole of the Company to do their part.

Prediction

The last time that Air Force beat San Diego State, Troy Calhoun was just in his third season as a head coach (2009). So to say they are overdue would be a drastic understatement. For the Falcons, ending this losing streak would mean beating a team with a winning record, unfortunately this is not something they have done this year.

And like two of the three teams that defeated the Falcons this year, the Aztecs feature a front seven that is going to be very difficult to run the ball against. That same defense has also forced 19 turnovers on the season, which could also be something to watch as this game plays out. Air Force’s fumbling issues have been well documented.

And the other major hurdle comes in the red zone. The Falcons have done a nice job ensuring they walk away with points when entering the red zone. However, San Diego State has done an even better job of stopping teams. Brady Hoke’s team has the third best defense in the country when teams get inside their 20.

While I do believe the Aztecs recent resurgence has a lot to do with their schedule, and who they have played in the back  half of their schedule, it’s not as if Air Force has played a slate full of titans themselves. In fact, it’s just the opposite, and even as double digit favorites, they’ve lost twice. If you like comparing success versus common opponents though, you will be very encourage when you compare scorecards. These two share the same record (3-1) against Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada and UNLV, but it was Air Force who clearly looked better in every instance.

I wish the common opponents theme felt like a better indicator for success in this game. Unfortunately, because of timing and styles of play that isn’t really the case. This is a team that until the recent nine game win streak, Air Force had dominated the series 19-9. The narrative has certainly changed and San Diego State has won a lot of football games in recent years. So while ending this losing streak to their in Conference foes would be great, and keep hopes of another double digit win campaign alive, it just feels like we may have to settle for ending the Commander-in-Chief’s drought this year.

Prepare for an absolute battle, and enjoy this one. Even if Air Force isn’t able to get the victory. These are two very good teams who represent the Mountain West Conference well.

Air Force 13 – San Diego State 16

 

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Air Force Football: The Falcons Defeat Colorado State 24-12

Air Force Wins Their Sixth Straight Versus The Rams The Falcons Are The Kings of Colorado- Again! Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire WE ARE THE KINGS OF COLORADO!!! https://t.co/FSU7GqvwZb – #GoAirForce (@AToastToTheHost) November 20, 2022 Air Force …

Air Force Wins Their Sixth Straight Versus The Rams

The Falcons Are The Kings of Colorado– Again!

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

Air Force continues their dominance over in-state rivals, Colorado State, defeating the Rams 24-12. It looked like the Falcons were going to engineer a complete blowout after they took a 24-0 lead, following their first possession of the second half. Such was not the case though, as the visiting Rams battled back behind some gutsy play from their quarterback Clay Millen, and his standout receiver, Tory Horton.

Two costly mistakes were catalysts to Colorado State hanging around in this game. A muffed punt in their own territory led to a touchdown surrendered. Then an intentional grounding penalty with possession near the Rams 30 yard pushed the Falcons back for a long 50+ yard field goal attempt, that was unsuccessful. This too led to a touchdown pass to who-else, but Tory Horton.

These counter punches were too little too late though, as the Falcons still controlled the ball and the clock for most of the game. Aside from those two scoring drives, Air Force really got after Millen, sacking the CSU quarterback seven times on the night.

Without registering a single pass yard, the Falcons secured their eighth win of the season behind 359 yards on the ground. The victory keeps the possibility of consecutive 10-win campaigns alive, while also keeping the Ram-Falcon Trophy, awarded to the winner of this intrastate matchup.

Next up is their season finale against San Diego State. It’s been a very long time since the Falcons have beaten the Aztecs. Keep an eye out for our game preview of this game in the coming week.

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Colorado State vs. Air Force: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Colorado State vs. Air Force: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction Can The Falcons Win Their Sixth Straight Against the Rams? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire The Ram-Falcon Trophy is on the Line in Colorado Springs! WEEK 12: Air …

Colorado State vs. Air Force: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Can The Falcons Win Their Sixth Straight Against the Rams?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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The Ram-Falcon Trophy is on the Line in Colorado Springs!

WEEK 12: Air Force Falcons 7-3 (3-3) vs. Colorado State Rams 2-8 (2-4)

WHEN: Saturday, November 19th — 7:00 P.M. MT/ 6:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Clear skies. High of 39F, Low 19F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

TV: FS2 Guy Haberman (play-by-play), Will Blackmon (analyst)

STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver; SIRIUS 388, SXM App 978

Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series vs. Colorado State, 37-21-1. The Falcons won year’s matchup 35-21.

LAST WEEK: Air Force defeated New Mexico 35-3. Colorado State lost to Wyoming 13-14.

WEBSITES: CSURams.com, the official Colorado State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Colorado State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 29.7

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 24.1

As we inch closer to the end of the season, we have another rivalry trophy on the line in week 12. For the 42nd time, these two Colorado based institutions will battle it out for the Ram-Falcon trophy. Air Force has dominated the series versus Colorado State of late, winning the last five matchups.

In his first year at Fort Collins, Jay Norvell has faced a lot of challenges. None more evident though, than the offensive side of the ball. A far cry from the success he and offensive coordinator, Matt Mumme enjoyed in Nevada the year prior. Playing the Rams means for the second straight week, the Falcons face one of the nations most anemic offenses. Well, technically, they are the nations worst offense on a points per game basis.

There were a number of players from that very same Wolf Pack team that Norvell previously coached, who followed him to Colorado State. But that has not always translated well on the field. Not yet anyways. It’s only year one, and while a lot players have transferred into Fort Collins, an alarming number have also departed throughout the year.

As for the Falcons, they are just looking to keep stacking wins as they march towards the finish line. Even though a Conference Championship is out of the question, 10 wins in consecutive seasons is not. If they want to record double digit win totals in back to back years, they have to take care of business at Falcon Stadium against their in-state rivals on Saturday.

Keys to an Air Force Victory

NO BODES OF CONFIDENCE

When Jay Norvell recruited Clay Millen to play for him back in Reno, he was a prized four star commit. While things haven’t necessarily gone as hoped for the coach and quarterback tandem just yet, the potential is there. In his first year as a starting quarterback, the redshirt freshman has started eight games this season, all while seeing the roster around him change pretty significantly.

Like we see quite often, teams that appear to be in a building phase use the opportunity to get critical experience and development for their quarterback. Especially those who are fortunate enough to have what they believe to be a program leader, like many feel Millen could be. This season is now very much about building his confidence.

A few of the bright spots on the offense during these growing pains for the Rams, have been the play of fellow Nevada transfers Tory Horton and Avery Morrow. Horton has been as good as any receiver in the Conference this season, racking up 965 receiving yards, with six touchdowns. The Falcons must account for Horton throughout the game.

Morrow has quietly come on, despite running behind a patchwork offensive line. With over 700 rush yards on the season, he’s provided a nice compliment on the ground.

The Rams are going to have to find a way to score points against a very stingy Air Force defense. This trio of inbound transfers are going to be the most likely of culprits if they are to succeed. If the Falcons can mitigate the impact that Morrow and Horton have, it’s really hard to see CSU’s offense find their way.

beware their playmakers

It feels odd to say it about a Jay Norvell team, but aside from Tory Horton, the playmakers of the Rams really reside on the defensive side of the ball. You may not know it by looking at their win-loss record, or the defenses statistical standing, but they have some dudes.

Similar to the Falcons opponent last week, Colorado State’s defense has been victimized largely in part due to an offense that has very rarely showed up. There are guys at every level of the defense who can impact the game though.

C.J. Onyechi and Mohamed Kamara bookend the defensive line as a formidable duo. Kamara is having an All-Conference type season, registering 7.5 sacks and 14 TFL’s. The two are responsible for 45 career tackles behind the line of scrimmage. While at linebacker, Cam’Ron Carter and Dequan Jackson are starting their combined 99th game. This tandem of tacklers have a ton of game experience that will be vital to helping try and stop the Air Force ground attack.

Similar to the Falcons, CSU features a solid tandem of safeties in Henry Blackburn and Jack Howell. A tackling machine, Howell will probably eclipse his 100th tackle on the season in the Falcons first offensive possession. Also like Taylor and Goff for Falcons, these two will return next season, assuming they do not transfer. Ayden Hector is another guy to watch in the secondary, as he’s picked off three passes from the nickel spot.

Prediction

When you look at just how bad the Colorado State offense has been, it’s easy to start thinking about a much more imposing San Diego State game in waiting on the Falcons schedule. However, with the exception of their game against Boise State, the Rams have really showed up in Conference play. They’ve won two of those games, and were highly competitive against some very credible competition in Wyoming and San Jose State.

It’s not the rivalry they have with Wyoming, but playing Air Force is an important game for a variety of reasons. Unfortunately for the Rams, I think that close loss to Wyoming is going to have a lingering effect and carry over to their contest in Colorado Springs. Winning the that game against the Pokes could have been a turning point for this young team, but such was not the case.

The Falcons just seem to really have CSU’s number, winning 13 of their last 15 against their neighboring rivals. It’s also worth mentioning, if the Rams were to succeed in pulling off the upset, it would be their first victory in Colorado Springs since 2002. I just don’t see there being enough offense on the Colorado State sideline to get it done. Air Force ranks 1st in rushing offense and pass defense, 6th in scoring defense and 5th in total defense. I’ll save you time looking it up, the Rams are last nationally in multiple categories that have significant bearing on the outcome of a football game.

Make it six in a row for the Bolt Brotherhood against CSU, that Ram-Falcon Trophy isn’t going anywhere.

Air Force 30, Colorado Springs 13

And if you want a little more content on this Mountain West matchup between the Falcons and Lobos, give a listen to ‘First and 505 with Ryan Tomari’ HERE! The Podcast host was gracious enough to have me on to talk about this weeks game, and he is constantly putting out great content, so give him a listen!

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New Mexico vs. Air Force: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Falcons take on the Lobos this week in Colorado Springs!

New Mexico vs. Air Force: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Can The Falcons Win Their Fifth Straight Against the Lobos?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force Even Their Conference Record?

WEEK 11: Air Force Falcons 6-3 (2-3) vs. New Mexico Lobos 2-7 (0-5)

WHEN: Saturday, November 12th — 1:30 P.M. MT/ 12:30 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. High 47F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network

STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver; SIRIUS 388, SXM App 978

Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series vs. Army, 25-14. The Falcons won year’s matchup 38-10.

LAST WEEK: Air Force defeated Army 13-7. New Mexico lost to Utah State 10-27.

WEBSITES: GoLobos.com, the official New Mexico athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): New Mexico | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 27

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 25.5

PARKER FLEMING ADVANCED STATS PROJECTION: Air Force win probability of 78.35% (21.80- 10.98).

The Falcons are flying high after securing the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy last week, while also earning Bowl Eligibility with their sixth win of the season. Opposing them Saturday, is a New Mexico Lobo’s team that is reeling to say the least, having lost their sixth straight contest. And as if losing six consecutive games isn’t bad enough, they’ve not even been able to close out a contest within two scores.

If New Mexico wants to end this skid, they’re going to have to do so in Colorado Springs. In case your wondering, they’ve not won at Falcon Stadium in over 20 years, back in 2000. They are just 2-13 playing at “The Springs”. A tall ask for Danny Gonzales’ bunch.

Never shying away from bringing in JUCO players, the Lobos are going to have quite a few starting this week again. None more impactful though, than their transfer from Fresno City Junior College, Justin Holaday, fresh off of his first career start.

Perhaps the change at quarterback can spark a very anemic New Mexico offense on Saturday. They are going to need it facing one of the nations stingiest defenses. The defense that the Falcons will be facing is no pushover either, so they may have their work cut out for them. And let’s be honest, the Lobos defensive coordinator Rocky Long has had success against Troy Calhoun’s bunch. With a 2-3 record in Conference play, there don’t appear to be any hand-outs for Air Force in Mountain West play.

Three Keys to an Air Force Victory

get the offense on track early

For as bad as the Lobos have been this year, the defense has performed quite admirably, especially when you consider the difficult circumstances their offense has put them in. It will be important for Air Force to find its way offensively early in the game to avoid any letdowns.

It’s well documented, the struggles they have had when playing some of the better defenses on their schedule. The Falcons don’t need to do New Mexico any favors by letting them stick around late into the game for an inability to put points on the board. That exactly the kind of blueprint a struggling team follows to an upset.

Leave the scoring ineptitude to the visitors. With the nations top rushing attack and the best running back in the Mountain West, go to work early and make the Lobos stare down a multi-score deficit in the second half. With just three passing touchdowns on the year (and 14 total offensive touchdowns), New Mexico could be looking at a severe beatdown if the Falcons offense is rolling.

dont ignore special teams

In their win over Army, the Falcons were extremely fortunate that a punt wasn’t blocked deep in their own territory. Somehow the kick got off with the defender soaring over the outstretched leg of Carson Bay. And for just the second time this season, there was also a missed field goal attempt off of the steady foot of Matthew Dapore.

The Lobos have one of the best punters to come through Albuquerque, in Aaron Rodriguez. And man, does this guy get a lot of work. He leads the country in punts, which means a whole lot of fair catch opportunities for Air Force if the defense stays strong.

While the Falcons aren’t likely to return many, if any kicks at all, registering a muffed punt turnover would be ill-advised. New Mexico has a punter that can flip field position, so even if your starting a drive near the shadow of your own end zone, it’s much better than handing it over as a red zone try.

no encore for jones

One of the bright spots in last weeks losing effort for the Lobos, was Nate Jones. The talented running back has gotten out of Danny Gonzalez’s dog house it seems, breaking out for almost 150 yards last week against Utah State. This is exactly the kind of performance New Mexico desperately needs to breath some life into their offense.

This is a guy who saw time as a true freshman in 2020, and looked like he could be that next outstanding back that they so desperately have been needing in Albuquerque. He ran for 232 yards and four touchdowns in the COVID shortened season, where he also chipped in on special teams.

After redshirting last year, Jones has now become the primary ball carrier for New Mexico. JUCO transfer, Sherod White and true freshman Chrstian Washington will also see carries throughout the game. If the Lobos are going to push for an upset in this game against Air Force, they are going to need Jones to build on last weeks career best performance.

Prediction

Statistics aren’t always going to dictate the outcome of a game. There are just far too many variables that can come in to play. However, this far into the season, it is fair to conclude were well past single data points. We have arrived at trends. And in nearly every conceivably meaningful statistic, the advantage arrow zeroes in on the home team this week.

For any outcome other than an Air Force win this Saturday, I really believe it will be more about mistakes on the part of the Falcons, or what they aren’t able to do offensively. I’m not sure there is enough offense on the New Mexico sideline to win this game, so short of keeping Air Force out of the endzone altogether, winning will be tough.

I am a believer in the Lobos defense, and they’ve been a more than capable bunch. But the offense has been so woefully bad, it has just made things really difficult for their mates on the other side of the ball, often leaving them in un-winnable situations.

And lets be honest, it’s not as if the Falcons can’t put up points. In fact, if the defense continues to standout, they could heap on the points at Falcon Stadium this weekend. Even with last weeks emotional win, I don’t think it will derail the focus and setup for the kind of monstrous letdown it would take to have the birds fall prey.

Make it five in a row against the Lobos, Air Force wins.

Air Force 31, New Mexico 10

And if you want a little more content on this Mountain West matchup between the Falcons and Lobos, give a listen to ‘First and 505 with Ryan Tomari’ HERE! The Podcast host was gracious enough to have me on to talk about this weeks game, and he is constantly putting out great content, so give him a listen!

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Air Force vs. Army: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Air Force vs. Army: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is on the Line for Air Force Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Welcome to the Commanders’ Classic WEEK 10: Air Force Falcons 5-3 (2-3) vs. Army …

Air Force vs. Army: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is on the Line for Air Force

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Welcome to the Commanders’ Classic

WEEK 10: Air Force Falcons 5-3 (2-3) vs. Army West Point 3-4

WHEN: Saturday, November 5th — 9:30 A.M. MT/ 8:30 A.M. PT

WHERE: Globe Life Stadium (Arlington, TX)

WEATHER: Game Played Indoors

TV: CBS

STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver; SIRIUS 388, SXM App 978

Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series vs. Army, 37-18-1. Army won last year’s matchup in Overtime, 21-14.

LAST WEEK: Both teams were on bye.

WEBSITES: GoArmyWestPoint.com, the official Amy West Point athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Boise State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 7

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 11.7

PARKER FLEMING ADVANCED STATS PROJECTION: Air Force win probability of 73.48% (31.01- 21.44).

The calendar has barely turned to November, but make no mistake, the fate of Air Force’s season is decided on Saturday, November 5th. With dreams of a division title long gone, the ultimate goal of Falcons is still within reach. The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.

Since the inception of the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy in 1971, the Falcons have dominated ownership shares with a 20 (AF) – 16 (Navy) – 9* (Army) tally. Overall, Air Force is 64-37 in CiC trophy games against their military brethren. Now that we’ve celebrated all that historical success in this rivalry, it’s time to acknowledge some hard truths.

In recent years, Air Force has been getting lapped by their peers, in particular those guys from West Point. The Falcons have lost four of their last five matchups with Jeff Monken’s squad, and they haven’t hoisted the coveted Commander-in-Chief’s trophy since 2016. For their fortunes to change in 2022, Troy Calhoun and the Falcons are going to have dig deep and take hold of the CiC. Army isn’t going to just hand it over.

Three Keys to an Air Force Victory

Exceed two touchdowns

In two of their three losses this year, the Falcons have scored just 14 points. This is less than half of their season average of 30.9 points per game. Anyone who follows Academy football understands that possessions are limited, and therefore points are harder to come by. This is especially magnified when two military schools face one another.

It’s no coincidence that the last time Air Force scored more than two touchdowns against Army, they won. Unfortunately, they’ve not been able to do that since 2016. In 2019, they scored 17 points to narrowly escape with the victory. In these low scoring affairs, the ability find the end zone three times feels like an awfully good avenue to singing second.

run the option, don’t veer

It’s no secret what both of these teams want to do; run the ball. These are the countries two leading rush offenses, and they are only separated by two yards per game. They both run the ball with similar triple option philosophies. Each offense has wrinkles, making them unique, but at the end of the day, these are two throwback, physical option attacks.

For the Falcons to be successful, they won’t just need to run the ball effectively, but execute with precision. In recent years there have been some very head-scratching plays from the Air Force offense when playing Army, that seem to either decide or significantly impact the game in the Black Knights favor. Whether it’s puzzling slot back pass near the Army 20 yard line, or low percentage pass plays in possession of the lead, these are the types of decisions that have helped keep the CiC in quarantine from Colorado Springs.

Nobody expects yards to come easy, but a steadfast commitment to who you are, and what you do well should at the core of Mike Thiessen’s offense. That is something the rivals on the opposing sideline have done with near unwavering success in these matchups.

win fourth down

Converting attempts on fourth down is in the fabric of each of these teams design for success. Successfully extending drives that are typically long and physical in nature, can have a compounding factor in the toll it will take on an opposing defense. In last year’s win for Army, they stopped the Falcons on three separate occasions, which they went for it on fourth down. Air Force was able to hold the Black Knights just once.

On the year, Air Force has the 8th ranked offense when it comes to converting on fourth down, at a rate of .769 on 13 attempts. Compare that to .550 when Army has the ball and has gone for it on fourth, which ranks 55th. Now, West Point also has a lot more tries, with 20, while playing just seven games so far.

Defensively Air Force has been able to hold teams that have gone for it on fourth down at a percentage rate of .429, good enough for 33rd nationally. Army’s fourth down defense is ranked slightly better than their offense at 52nd, holding teams at a clip of .471.

It’s not as if these two teams make more attempts than most other schools when it comes to fourth downs. But it’s more about when and where their willingness to go for it rears, compared to the rest of the nation. You also have to consider the number of attempts they have recorded is significantly marginalized by the fact that they limit possessions, and therefore the opportunity rate is suppressed. One thing that is for sure, fourth down success on both sides of the ball will be a major factor in declaring this years winner of the Commanders’ Classic.

Prediction

In my opinion, the Falcons game against Army is the most difficult to predict a winner each and every season. Especially in recent history, team records, statistical rankings and player notoriety has meant little when it comes to deciding a winner. I say that because in most regards, Air Force has presented a more talented and complete roster in recent years, with more distinguished players and a better standing statistically as a team; yet it has not translated to wins.

This year has another wrinkle in evaluating the matchup, and that is the teams records. Army has just three wins, and two of them have come against FCS opponents (Colgate and Villanova). Their lone FBS victory came against Louisiana-Monroe. Maybe it’s worth noting, Villanova did beat Navy to start the year?

Before piling on Army for yet another underwhelming Independent schedule, the Falcons record is starting to look a little suspect despite being a game away from bowl eligibility just seven games into the season. Of the five games that Air Force has won, the only team currently holding a winning record is the Northern Iowa Panthers of the FCS.

All of that is to say, getting late into the season there are more questions than answers as to just how good Troy Calhoun’s 2022 team is. The season began with really high expectations, but as the season has unfolded, there have been more disappointments than most may have anticipated. Their opponents on Saturday have experienced plenty of letdowns as well, but their ultimate objective is very much achievable yet, and it comes with the highest of prices to Air Force; The Commander-in-Chief’s trophy. That one Trophy can make a successful campaign of even the bleakest of seasons.

It’s week 10, and everything is still right in front of both of these teams. A truly compelling proposition when you think of Army’s overall record, and Air Force’s division mark.

Both of these teams enter the Commanders’ Classic with the only rushing attacks averaging more than 300 yards per game, placing them to little surprise as the nations top running games. There are a few things that I’ve found concerning for Air Force, the more I look at the two teams.

West Point only averages two less yards per game on the ground than the Falcons, though they are earning almost .5 more per rush attempt. The Black Knights are actually scoring almost three points per game more than Air Force also, averaging 32.7. The other thing I couldn’t help but notice was how Army’s offense performed in their losses. And in losses to two very respectable teams in Coastal Carolina and UT- San Antonio, they scored 28 and 38 respectively. Similar to Air Force, their offense had clunkers in defeats to Wake Forest and Georgia State, where they failed to exceed 14 points in either affair. Sound familiar? If not, go look at the Falcons results against Boise State and Wyoming.

These are all parallels that I believe add to an already very compelling matchup, despite Army’s record. But with all the relatability made between these two squads offensive production, defense is certainly the divergent point. And for Air Force, this is where you have to expect your team to show up, and substantiate why their defensive unit is ranked as one of the best in the country in a number of categories. Unfortunately, rush defense isn’t one of those areas they have distinguished themselves, but it has performed much better than Army’s as statistics go. Entering the contest, Jeff Monken’s defense is 126th against the run. That is a 1 in front of the 26l one hundred and twenty sixth.

I’ve been sweating a Falcon rush defense in recent weeks that had fallen outside of the top 50. Well they’ve slowly improved versus the run, and still rank very well where it counts, surrendering just 16.8 points per game, good for 9th nationally in both scoring and total defense. That dreadful standing of Army’s run defense has contributed to a 92nd ranked scoring defense, as they have allowed 29.4 points per game. That number is awful close to what Air Force has been scoring on a per game basis.

You may notice there aren’t mentions of specific players who may impact the game, be missing or starting for the first time. That is not due to a lack of elite players in this matchup. It has more to do with the fact that the composition of the rosters and the individuals have not necessarily dictated the results of this game in my opinion. Coaching, decision making and the overall play of units (to no surprise) bare far more burden to success in this game. Not to mention, you cannot trust a depth chart either of these teams put out.

Air Force has had a quality of team in recent years that had no business losing to Army. Yet despite that, they found themselves watching their peers from West Point sing second more often than not. It’s really hard to compel a Falcons victory seeing how these games have gone. A win would end an unprecedented drought of the CiC Trophy since 2016, and also award Bowl eligibility. If an Air Force offense that has the top rushing attack in the country cannot lead them to victory against a defense that has been shredded by the run on a weekly basis, I’m not sure they can ever secure that coveted trip to the White House. There are certainly no guarantees in this one.

With great reservation, I declare an end to this recession! I mean drought!

Air Force 21, Army 20

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Boise State vs. Air Force: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Boise State vs. Air Force: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction Can the Falcons Make it Two in a Row Against the Broncos? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can the Falcons Stay Perfect at Home? WEEK 8: Boise State Broncos 4-2 (3-0) …

Boise State vs. Air Force: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Can the Falcons Make it Two in a Row Against the Broncos?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can the Falcons Stay Perfect at Home?

WEEK 8: Boise State Broncos 4-2 (3-0) vs. Air Force Falcons 5-2 (2-2)

WHEN: Saturday, October 22nd — 5:00 P.M. MT/ 4:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Plentiful sunshine. High 72F. Winds WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver; SIRIUS 388, SXM App 978

Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the all-time series 6-4. Last season Air Force defeated the Broncos 24-17

LAST WEEK: Air Force defeated UNLV 42-7, while Boise State was on a bye week.

WEBSITES: BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Boise State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 3.8

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 7.7

PARKER FLEMING ADVANCED STATS PROJECTION: Air Force win probability of 54.57% (31.10- 29.52).

The rollercoaster that has been the Mountain West Conference football season is about to hit what should be one of it’s most thrilling peaks in Week 8; Boise State at Air Force. Despite a 2-2 start, the Broncos are comfortably in the drivers seat of the Mountain Division as the only undefeated team remaining in Conference Play. The Falcons by contrast are battling to keep even a remote possibility to win the division alive.

The Hank Bachmeier era is over in Boise, and they have gone all in on Redshirt Freshman Taylen Green at quarterback. This transition has led to a revelation in the Broncos running game, which is really starting to shine with Green’s running ability paired with one of the best tandem of running backs in the country in George Holani and Ashton Jeanty.

Air Force knows all about elite running back duos, as they have one of their own in Brad Roberts and John Lee Eldridge III. These workhorses behind their standout offensive line are going to really be challenged this week. Despite some prolific performances, there have also been a few games that kept the rushing attack quite honest. The patron example would be their rock fight in Laramie, as the Cowboys defensive front was dominant.

As good as the Pokes are in the front seven, the Broncos look to be just as stout. Overall, the Boise defense really does not look to have any blaring deficiencies, so yards and points could be at a premium. There is going to be a lot of pressure on both offensive and defensive line play for the Falcons this week. They’ll have to pair those groups with some other elements if they want to issue Boise State their first Conference loss of the season.

Three Keys to an Air Force Victory

1. 20 is the magic number

The number 20 will be at key indicator for success if Air Force is to win this contest. The most obvious reason is that one of the nations best ball carriers, Brad Roberts wears number 20, and as he goes, so will this offense. In last seasons victory of the Broncos, Roberts ran for 138 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. That was too obvious though, right?

Well  then, consider the fact that in three of the four victories the Falcons have secured over Boise, they’ve held the Bronco offense to 20 points or less. Of more recent relevance, Boise state is 0-2 this season when scoring fewer than 20, and 1-2 when the opposition scores 20+.

Air Force on the other hand, has held their opponents to 20 points or fewer all but one this season. Of those six games, they lost only one, and that was to the aforementioned Wyoming Cowboys. Keeping the Broncos scoring in that 20 or below range isn’t just suggested, but likely necessary for victory.

2. CONSUME CLOCK

Owning the time of possession battle is a hallmark of the Air Force offense. Considering they’re opponent has rekindle their love for pounding the rock, the Falcon’s need to keep drives alive to ensure they aren’t on the wrong side of that time of possession metric. Boise hasn’t won this year when they’ve lost the time of possession battle (0-2), and with an offense that doesn’t look to be as dangerous throwing the ball, a hefty dose of the run may be waiting.

Coach Knorr’s defense has posted some really fantastic numbers this year so far. But one of the areas of concern appears to be the run defense. It’s not as if they’ve gotten gashed every game, but they are a middle of the road team statistically, as rush defense goes. Maybe that has helped inflate their pass defense that is ranked 4th nationally? It’s hard to say because there haven’t been overwhelming offenses in either category to oppose them yet. Beware though, the Broncos have recruited very well at the skill positions residually.

One thing is for sure, Boise has started to feature a very multiple rushing attack that could create problems. If they flip the script and are able to gash the Falcons and minimize Air Force possessions, it will be really difficult to find enough opportunities to score the volume of points necessary to win. That diesel powered run game is going to be critical on Saturday, against a very good defense.

3. success in the trenches

Last season the Falcons were able to make hay on the ground against Boise, in particular between the tackles. This is the ‘Brad Zone’. The ‘Brad Zone’ is cultivated, fostered and tended by a collection of interior Diesels; Wesley Ndago, Ayden McCollough, Thor Paglialong, Steven Iles, Ethan Jackman and Mid Season All-American, Isaac Cochran.

This collection of platooning interior lineman have another tall task ahead of them, carving out running crevices in the Boise State interior defensive line. Their defense is surrendering just over 100 yards per game on the ground, and is anchored by a very deep, experienced and talented core of players, led by Scott Matlock, George Tarlas, Herbert Gums, Demitri Washington, Jackson Cravens and Divine Obichere. Matlock was one of my top three players in the pre-season poll, while George Tarlas may find himself in conversations as the Conference’s newcomer of the year.

The Boise State offensive line has been a bit of a different story. While the running game has found their footing in recent weeks, this unit was maligned much of last year and early in the 2022 season. Whether it’s the mobility of Green, or a change in scheme, the group has been playing well. This would be a great time for the Falcons defense to add to that tackle for loss total of 21.

Air Force’s defensive front, in particular the interior is going to need to hold their ground in this matchup. They got pushed around quite a bit by Wyoming and Utah State, and that provided next level blocking on the Falcons highly productive linebackers. If that happens Saturday, it will be very problematic. Especially since it looks like Alec Mock will still be out of the lineup.

Prediction

I feel very strongly that the keys to victory mentioned above are going to dictate this game. It’s hard to discern whether either of these teams have really beaten a high quality opponent to date. San Diego State and UNLV looked at times this season, as if they would be very respectable wins. I’m not so sure that holds true at this point in the season, and those are possibly each of these squads marque wins to date.

What should cause the most concern for Air Force fans is the struggles they have had against teams who are clogging up the interior of their line. Wyoming didn’t just make it messy, they were penetrating into the backfield with regularity. That crew of game wreckers on Boise’s defense could be very problematic, especially in the absence of speed and ability to get the ball on the edges.

Something that shouldn’t get lost in all this gritty discussion around the players in the trenches, is the treat we should be in for regarding secondary play. Three of the best safeties in the Conference will be playing in this game. J.L. Skinner, Trey Taylor and Camby Goff are all playing at an All-Conference level, so if you appreciate high level play from the safety spot, there might not be a better game to view on Saturday.

Much like the Mountain West has been in general, it’s really  hard to tell just how good these two teams are. The way in which Air Force has lost creates serious concerns, relative to the task ahead in Colorado Springs. A jolt in the passing game could be a major difference maker. But there haven’t been reasons to necessarily anticipate that, with what our good friend Matt Kenerly pointed out in this weeks preview podcast, a slightly digressed passing game. I will point out, at just over 23 yards per completion, Air Force leads the country. But the volume of those completions is what creates hesitation on confidence.

Last year I leaned towards Boise in our predictions, and was very pleasantly proven wrong. I’m going to lean that way again, in what should be as close a contest as it gets. Never would I be happier to be wrong again, nor would it come as a surprise. The Falcons have the ingredients to win this matchup, but so does Boise State. This is what makes the Mountain West such an exciting Conference!

Air Force 17, Boise State 21

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Air Force vs. UNLV: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Can Air Force beat UNLV to remain in the Mountain division hunt?

Air Force vs. UNLV: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Will Air Force Ruin the Rebels Homecoming?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can the Falcons Avoid a Hangover in Vegas?

WEEK 7: Air Force Falcons 4-2 (1-2) vs. UNLV Rebels 4-2 (2-1)

WHEN: Saturday, October 15th — 7:30 P.M. MT/ 6:30 P.M. PT

WHERE: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, NV)

WEATHER: Game Played Indoors: Abundant sunshine. High around 90F. Winds light and variable.

TV: CBS Sports Network

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver; SIRIUS 388, SXM App 978

Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the all-time series 17-6. Last Year Air Force defeated UNLV 48-14.

LAST WEEK: Air Force lost to Utah State 27-34 | UNLV was defeated by San Jose State 40-7

WEBSITES: UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): UNLV | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 4.5

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 16

PARKER FLEMMING PROJECTION: Air Force win probability 77.00% (38.87-28.67)

One of the last games played on Saturday night should be one of the most intriguing. Air Force will find themselves at one of the most popular destinations in the U.S. this week, as they head to Las Vegas to take on the UNLV Rebels. Prior to last week, these were two teams feeling good about their chances to win the respective divisions they compete in.

A lot can change in a single week.

Both the Falcons and Rebs entered last week with great optimism, but they certainly didn’t conclude their weekend with the same zeal. Air Force got shredded once again by division foes, Utah State for the second year in a row. While UNLV went absolutely broke in San Jose.

There is a major difference in the letdown each team experienced recently, though. Despite getting crushed by their division rivals, UNLV lost their starting quarterback, Doug Brumfield early in the game, and it just got away from them against what is affirmed a serious Mountain West Contender, in the San Jose State Spartans. Air Force on the other hand lost yet another divisional game on the road, despite being double digit favorites over their opponent.

So while both teams still could fight their way back atop the Mountain and West divisions; UNLV requires far less help than their opponents. The Falcons find themselves two games back in he division already, with questions continuing to mount. For Air Force to cling to any chance at a division title, they have to put a complete game together in a conference road contest.

Three Keys to an Air Force Victory

1. PROTECT THE FOOTBALL

Nobody wants to hear it, but the importance of ball security cannot be overstated. Only three teams in the country have lost more fumbles than Air Force. UNLV has forced 12 turnovers on the season, while surrendering just four of their own. Three of their four turnovers have come in the last two games, coincidentally.

2. STOP THE RUN

The Falcons ability to run the ball is rarely if ever in question. In recent years, the same could be said for the ability of their defense to stuff the oppositions rushing attack. That has not been the case this year defensively, as they rank 65th nationally. The very definition of mediocre. This has got to improve if they want to get back in the divisional hunt, starting with their matchup with UNLV.

The Rebels feature a bruiser of a running back in Aidan Robbins, yet another FBS transfer player (Louisville). Robbins has been a key component to a highly effective offense in Las Vegas. With nine touchdowns on the year, the UNLV back ranks fourth nationally. Yes, that’s even ahead of the Falcon’s own Brad Roberts.

According to their depth chart, whatever injury Rebels quarterback Doug Brumfield suffered last week is still ailing him. Cameron Friel appears to be getting the nod to start against Air Force on Saturday. Unless of course, you believe the (or) placed between he and Harrison Bailey, the Tennessee transfer on UNLV’s released depth chart.

Friel didn’t look good in his time against the Spartans last week, nor did he impress against the Falcons in 2021. They can’t allow the Rebels to establish a run game, taking the pressure off of Friel and the pass attack. They have playmakers at receiver that could be dangerous if the offense is able to play complimentary football.

3. REDZONE TOUCHDOWNS

One of the most pleasant surprises this season has been the kicking of Matthew Dapore. He’s playing as well as anyone in the Conference at the position. Hopefully a majority of his work on Saturday comes by way of extra points. In nearly every metric these two mirror each other in red zone play; within 2% of each other offensively and defensively.

They’ve both kept their opposition out of the end zone better than 50% of the time. On offense, UNLV is clicking at 75% of their trips inside the 20 resulting in touchdowns. Compare that to the Falcons, who are cashing in tuddies on 63% of their trips. When you consider how these are the two highest scoring offenses in the Conference (UNLV 1st- Air Force 2nd), the difference between winning and losing could very well come down to who cashes in for six, versus who settles for three.

Air Force needs to make the Cadet wing do the extra push-ups every time they visit the red zone on Saturday.

Prediction

Last season UNLV entered their contest against Air Force with little to play for. The Falcons by contrast were still alive in the Division hunt, and that motivation showed on the scoreboard. This year should be a little bit different from a motivation standpoint. It’s not that the Falcons will be any less motivated, but despite their lopsided defeat last week, the Rebels are very much alive in their division.

Air Force’s hopes of a division title, and thus Mountain West crown are essentially on life support at this point. Losing in Las Vegas would all but pull the plug. UNLV isn’t going to be a pushover like last year, even if Doug Brumfield isn’t able to go (which appears to be the case). But if we are being honest, Brumfield was playing at a very high level, potentially as a Mountain West Player of the Year Candidate, and that production is going to be very difficult to replace.

I realize a far less experienced backup in Cooper Legas, helped Utah State exploit the Falcons defense last week. But the style of offense he operates is different from that which Cameron Friel (or Harrison Bailey) will be conducting. The drop off in quarterback play can’t be ignored.

The Falcons have injury issues of their own that they’ve been dealing with since the injury bug has hit dynamic playmakers Dane Kinamon, Deandre Hughes and Zach Larrier. Since their absence, Air Force has split their last four games. The biggest difference I see in their ability to overcome those losses is they still have the most settling force on their side, the Conference’s leading rusher in Brad Roberts and the nations top running game. UNLV is still looking for their stabilizer in Brumfields stead. Maybe they’ll find it this week, but I’m not betting on it.

Air Force 28, UNLV 24

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