Tag: AFC Championship

Should you bet on the Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Buffalo Bills’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

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AFC East teams besides the New England Patriots don’t typically make the playoffs. They certainly don’t usually go 10-6 or challenge New England for the division crown very often. Yet, that’s exactly what the Buffalo Bills did this season, giving the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East and becoming just the third wild-card team from the division since 2011.

But do the Bills have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl? According to the oddsmakers, not really.

Buffalo Bills playoff futures

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 12:30 pm. ET.

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BetMGM has the Bills at +6000 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February, the longest odds of any team in the playoffs. That’s the result of them having a young, inconsistent sophomore quarterback under center in Josh Allen, a tough matchup in the first round against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, and a second-round date with either the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs if they were to advance to the Divisional Round.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Bills to win Super Bowl LIV would return a profit of $600 should Buffalo win the Super Bowl.

Allen had a solid season. He threw 20 touchdown passes with only nine interceptions, rushing for another 510 yards and nine touchdowns, as well. However, he only completed 58.8% of his passes and his 5.71 adjusted net yards per attempt – a good measuring stick of a quarterback’s aggressiveness and success – ranked 23rd among qualified quarterbacks.

(Photo Credit: Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports)

The Bills defense is what helped carry them to the postseason, ranking second in points and third in yards allowed, but how many top offenses did they truly face? The Dallas Cowboys and Ravens were the only teams that really stand out offensively from Buffalo’s schedule, though it was impressive that they were held to a combined 39 points in consecutive weeks.

The Bills aren’t exactly coming into the postseason riding high, either. They lost three of their last four games, one of which was the season finale with Matt Barkley at quarterback. There isn’t much momentum behind the Bills heading into this wild-card matchup with the Texans, especially on offense. In the last three games that Allen completed, the Bills had fewer than 300 yards of offense in each, including fewer than 200 yards passing.

Why You Shouldn’t Bet On the Bills to win Super Bowl LIV

(Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire – USA TODAY Sports)

So that begs the question again: Should you bet on the Bills to win Super Bowl LIV? In short, no. Unless the Tennessee Titans go on a deep run, Buffalo will be on the road for the entire postseason run. Winning four straight games away from home is no easy task for any team, let alone one that faced only three playoff teams in the regular season – including a Philadelphia Eagles squad that barely got in.

Save your money and put it on a team like the Ravens, San Francisco 49ers or New Orleans Saints. The Seahawks at +2500 or the Patriots at +1200 are better bets than the Bills and still come with financial upside on a small wager.

So unless you just want to lay $10 down on a Bills Cinderella story, it’d be wise to pass on this wager.

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Should you bet on the Baltimore Ravens to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Baltimore Ravens’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

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The Baltimore Ravens cruised through the 2019 NFL regular season to a 14-2 record and a second straight AFC North crown. They won their final 12 games of the year after a 2-2 start and nine of their 14 wins were decided by at least a two-score margin. Now, they head into the postseason as +225 favorites to win Super Bowl LIV in Miami Sunday, Feb. 2.

The Ravens, led by MVP frontrunner QB Lamar Jackson, locked down the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will host the Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills or Houston Texans in the Divisional Round Saturday, Jan, 11.

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 12:30 pm. ET.

Baltimore Ravens playoff futures

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AFC Champion: -112

The Ravens are the only team in either conference getting a negative number to advance to Super Bowl LIV. The Kansas City Chiefs are the next closest favorite in the AFC at +200, while the Buffalo Bills are the biggest long shot at +3000. The books are putting the juice on a Ravens team, which obtained the NFL’s best regular-season record, controls home field through the AFC playoffs and enters the postseason on a 12-game winning streak.

The Ravens’ two losses this season came at the Chiefs (33-28) and at home to the rival Cleveland Browns (40-25) in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively. Baltimore and KC may meet in the AFC Championship Game, but it’ll be Baltimore with the home advantage in the rematch.

(Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan – USA TODAY Sports)

The Ravens led the NFL with 33.2 points per game and ranked second in total yards of offense per game at 407.6. Defensively, they ranked third in PPG allowed (17.6) and fourth in YPG allowed (300.6.). Only six teams had a better turnover differential than Baltimore’s plus-10.

These merits aside, there’s zero value in placing a futures bet on the team getting the juice. There’s too much that can happen, even in a three-game sample. It’s a hard PASS for me on the conference title odds. It’s Super Bowl or bust for John Harbaugh’s Ravens.

Super Bowl: +225

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Ravens to win Super Bowl LIV would return a profit of $22.50 should Baltimore win the game.

Harbaugh should be viewed as the Coach of the Year favorite, much like Jackson ran away with the MVP honors. Additionally, the Ravens tied an NFL record with 12 Pro Bowl selections this season. Behind Jackson, free-agent additions RB Mark Ingram and S Earl Thomas received nods, as did in-season trade acquisition CB Marcus Peters. Nine of the team’s sections were either drafted by the Ravens (six) or signed as undrafted free agents (three).

Photo Credit: Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports

At +225, the books still aren’t offering much value on the Ravens to win it all in early February. The Ravens opened with +2000 odds of winning Super Bowl LIV last February, with those rising all the way to +4000 by the end of the preseason. To all those who acted at the right time, congratulations. Sit back, and hold your ticket tight.

For those needing action entering the postseason, go ahead and back the Ravens on a multi-unit bet. Hedge it by backing a long shot out of the NFC such as the Minnesota Vikings (+1600) or Seattle Seahawks (+1200).

Alternatively, try predicting the exact Super Bowl LIV matchup. Baltimore Ravens v Green Bay Packers (+800) will be getting some of my money.

Want action on this bet? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Should you bet on the New England Patriots to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the New England Patriots’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

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For most of the 2019 season, it appeared the New England Patriots were locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC as they rode their hot defense to another 12-win season. After a colossal collapse against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, the Patriots will now have to play on Wild Card weekend against the red-hot Tennesee Titans.

Given their history, it’s hard to count out the Patriots as long as they are still in the playoffs. Below are the reasons you should or shouldn’t bet on the New England Patriots to win their seventh Super Bowl.

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 11:45 a.m. ET.

Why You Should Bet On The Patriots to win Super Bowl LIV

(Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIV: +1200 

Get some action on the games by betting at BetMGM. New customer offer: RISK-FREE First Bet (up to $500!) paid in free bets.

The case for why you should bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl is simple; head coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady. The two are nearly unstoppable in the playoffs and have proven time and time again they can flip the switch when it matters the most. They have shown they can go on the road and win, something many of the other AFC playoff contenders can’t say.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Patriots have the best defense in football, allowing just over 14 points per game this season. New England can create takeaways at will and give their offense short fields with which to work. While it may not always look pretty, it’s awfully tough to not bet on the Patriots to come out of the AFC this season. And with their current odds, they actually present some excellent value, as well. Their +1200 odds to win Super Bowl LIV seem almost too good to be true.

Why You Shouldn’t Bet On The Patriots to win Super Bowl LIV

(Photo Credit: David Butler II – USA TODAY Sports)

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Patriots to win Super Bowl LIV would return a profit of $120 should the Patriots win the Super Bowl.

Despite six Super Bowl wins over the last 20 seasons, the Patriots have never made it to the Super Bowl, let alone win one when they were forced to play on Wild Card weekend. It’s just too difficult to make it through the AFC gauntlet when you have to play two or three games on the road in order to make the Super Bowl.

On top of that, the 2019 Patriots don’t resemble anything we are accustomed to seeing. The Patriots have scored more than 24 points just once in their last 10 games, and their offense can be shut down relatively easily. It’s also concerning how Brady appears to be in the worst slump of his career as he has a passer rating of only 80.8 over the last eight games of the season.

While it’s hard to count out Belichick and Brady, this does appear to be one of their weaker teams in recent memory. But don’t be surprised if New England finds a way to come out of the AFC for the fourth-straight season.

Want action on this bet? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Should you bet on the Houston Texans to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Houston Texans’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

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Should you bet anyone to win the Super Bowl? That’s a personal question I suppose. Some would say no. I’d definitely argue yes. In the spirit of trying to break the BetMGM book, let’s take a look at the Houston Texans’ case to win Super Bowl LIV.

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET.

Houston Texans playoff futures

Get some action on the games by betting at BetMGM. New customer offer: RISK-FREE First Bet (up to $500!) paid in free bets.

AFC Champion: +1800

If you’re anything like me, then seeing a quadruple-digit betting line for a relatively healthy, division-winning team with a franchise quarterback is very exciting. The Texans have been well-coached and structured enough to have a winning record in five of the six seasons Bill O’Brien has been their head coach.

Also, the Texans have won the AFC South and made the playoffs in four of six seasons under O’Brien, but this time, they have a legitimate franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson to help them advance in the postseason. Also, the 21-7 drubbing to the Indianapolis Colts last year in the playoffs gave Watson much needed postseason experience.

(Photo credit: Christopher Hanewinckel – USA TODAY Sports)

The 2019 Texans are the most balanced offense in their team’s history, statistically and personnel-wise. Thousands of words have been written about the explosiveness of the passing game featuring Watson, and WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, but little has been said about an elite run game.

That’s right, I said elite. What else do you call the ninth-ranked team in total rushing yards (2,009), eighth in yards per carry (4.6) and with 17 rushing touchdowns with a multi-faceted run game? Carlos Hyde was a great offseason pickup—245 carries for 1,070 yards and six touchdowns—but Duke Johnson provides a dual-threat spell back and Watson added 413 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns.

Taking the TEXANS +1800 to come out of the AFC is a tremendous value, and gives you a plethora of hedge options (betting the other side against the Texans to minimize financial exposure and/or ensure a profit) should they advance to the AFC title game.

Super Bowl: +3300

New to sports betting? A $100 wager on the Texans to win Super Bowl LIV would return a profit of $3,300 should the Texans win the Super Bowl.

Talk about value, betting TEXANS +3300 to win Super Bowl LIV is a juicy play. Playoff competition isn’t new to the Texans and they’ve already beaten three AFC playoff teams in the regular season: the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 (31-24), the New England Patriots in Week 13 (28-22) and the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 (24-21).

(Photo credit: Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports)

Also, their emotional leader, and best defensive player, DE J.J. Watt is coming back for the postseason. The defense took a noticeable dip with Watt out of the lineup since Week 8 due to a pectoral injury. Sans Watt, the Texans gave up more yards per game, yards per play, points per game and were minus-31 in point differential compared to a plus-24 point differential with Watt playing.

All the teams in the playoffs have a worthy argument of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, but only the Texans are getting a first-ballot Hall of Fame player back for the postseason.

Want action on this bet? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL futures betting: AFC Champion odds, picks and best bets

Previewing the NFL AFC champion futures odds with 1 week left in the regular season, with NFL futures, betting odds, picks and best bets

Though there remains some jockeying to be done in terms of seeding, the teams that make up the top five spots in the AFC playoffs are locked in. The Baltimore Ravens are also locked into the conference’s top seed (and thus hold home-field advantage to the Super Bowl), and New England will likely finish with the No. 2 seed.

Today, we take a look at how to bet on the AFC in terms of who will emerge as the conference champion, and which teams present the most value for winning the conference. Here are the top five teams in AFC championship odds heading into the final week of the season.

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1. Baltimore Ravens (-112)

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. (Photo credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)

As you would expect, the Ravens are the favorites to win the AFC this season. Every game they will play up to the Super Bowl will be at home — which is only two games thanks to their first-round bye. They have the likely NFL MVP at quarterback in Lamar Jackson and a veteran team that is loaded with talent.

However, there just isn’t a ton of value in betting the Ravens here unless you are combing them in another parlay. At -112, the Ravens are a bet to avoid despite how much you make like them to advance to the Super Bowl.

2. New England Patriots (+250)

Patriots coach Bill Belichick. (Photo credit: Raj Mehta – USA TODAY Sports)

This number, +250, is larger than what we’re used to seeing the Patriots at to win the AFC with one week to go in the regular season. They will have a home playoff game in the divisional round, and that game will likely be against the Chiefs. A bye week would certainly help the Pats given their age, and if they get that then it’s tough to bet against them. The value here may be too good to pass up.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (+375)

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. (Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing – USA TODAY Sports)

Having to win three straight games — with at least one and likely two on the road — isn’t a recipe for success when it comes to getting to the Super Bowl. However, few — if any — teams have ever had a player like Patrick Mahomes on their roster.

The Chiefs have shown they belong with the AFC’s best, having beaten the Ravens and Patriots this season, making them are fascinating pick at +375. But for them to get to the Super Bowl, they will likely need to beat both the Nos. 1 & 2 seeds on the road. It’s certainly not impossible, but the odds just aren’t quite good enough to bet on them. You are better off betting the Kansas City moneyline each week rather than picking them now to win the conference.

4. Houston Texans (+1600)

Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (10) and QB Deshaun Watson (4). (Photo credit: Christopher Hanewinckel – USA TODAY Sports)

The team with the fourth-best odds to win the conference is the Houston Texans. While they have been mighty inconsistent this season, they also have the talent to compete with just about any team. And when you compare their talent vs. the Chiefs to their odds relative to the Chiefs, there is a lot more value in betting the Texans to come out of the AFC. Consider betting on Houston as a potential longshot.

5. Buffalo Bills (+2500)

Bills RB Devin Singletary. (Photo credit: Mark Konezny – USA TODAY Sports)

You can make a strong case that the Bills are the third-best team in the conference despite being the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They have one of the best defenses in all of football, and their offense seems to be improving by the week. Unfortunately, their road to the Super Bowl will be incredibly difficult as they would need to win three straight games in three straight weeks and, barring a miracle, all three games will be on the road. And if the seedings hold, their opponent will have the better quarterback each time, too. The Bills are certainly a great story and a fun team, but don’t count on them making much noise in the playoffs.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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