Though there remains some jockeying to be done in terms of seeding, the teams that make up the top five spots in the AFC playoffs are locked in. The Baltimore Ravens are also locked into the conference’s top seed (and thus hold home-field advantage to the Super Bowl), and New England will likely finish with the No. 2 seed.
Today, we take a look at how to bet on the AFC in terms of who will emerge as the conference champion, and which teams present the most value for winning the conference. Here are the top five teams in AFC championship odds heading into the final week of the season.
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1. Baltimore Ravens (-112)
As you would expect, the Ravens are the favorites to win the AFC this season. Every game they will play up to the Super Bowl will be at home — which is only two games thanks to their first-round bye. They have the likely NFL MVP at quarterback in Lamar Jackson and a veteran team that is loaded with talent.
However, there just isn’t a ton of value in betting the Ravens here unless you are combing them in another parlay. At -112, the Ravens are a bet to avoid despite how much you make like them to advance to the Super Bowl.
2. New England Patriots (+250)
This number, +250, is larger than what we’re used to seeing the Patriots at to win the AFC with one week to go in the regular season. They will have a home playoff game in the divisional round, and that game will likely be against the Chiefs. A bye week would certainly help the Pats given their age, and if they get that then it’s tough to bet against them. The value here may be too good to pass up.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (+375)
Having to win three straight games — with at least one and likely two on the road — isn’t a recipe for success when it comes to getting to the Super Bowl. However, few — if any — teams have ever had a player like Patrick Mahomes on their roster.
The Chiefs have shown they belong with the AFC’s best, having beaten the Ravens and Patriots this season, making them are fascinating pick at +375. But for them to get to the Super Bowl, they will likely need to beat both the Nos. 1 & 2 seeds on the road. It’s certainly not impossible, but the odds just aren’t quite good enough to bet on them. You are better off betting the Kansas City moneyline each week rather than picking them now to win the conference.
4. Houston Texans (+1600)
The team with the fourth-best odds to win the conference is the Houston Texans. While they have been mighty inconsistent this season, they also have the talent to compete with just about any team. And when you compare their talent vs. the Chiefs to their odds relative to the Chiefs, there is a lot more value in betting the Texans to come out of the AFC. Consider betting on Houston as a potential longshot.
5. Buffalo Bills (+2500)
You can make a strong case that the Bills are the third-best team in the conference despite being the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They have one of the best defenses in all of football, and their offense seems to be improving by the week. Unfortunately, their road to the Super Bowl will be incredibly difficult as they would need to win three straight games in three straight weeks and, barring a miracle, all three games will be on the road. And if the seedings hold, their opponent will have the better quarterback each time, too. The Bills are certainly a great story and a fun team, but don’t count on them making much noise in the playoffs.
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