Tag: 49ers Lions odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Detroit Lions host the San Francisco 49ers for their Week 1 regular season openers at Ford Field with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the 49ers at Lions odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

San Francisco’s 2020 season was your standard “Super Bowl loser curse” as the 49ers finished 6-10 due in large part to a plethora of injuries to their starting lineup. San Francisco had by far the most adjusted games lost to injury, according to Football Outsiders.

Detroit moves into a new era after parting ways with head coach Matt Patricia and granting Matthew Stafford’s trade request by sending him to the Los Angeles Rams for QB Jared Goff and draft capital.

The Lions finished in the cellar of the NFC North with a 5-11 record and missed the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.

49ers at Lions odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:16 a.m. ET.

• Money line: 49ers -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Lions +330 (bet $100 to win $330)
• Against the spread (ATS): 49ers -8.5 (-112) | Lions +8.5 (-108)
• Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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49ers at Lions key injuries

49ers

• DT Javon Kinlaw (knee) doubtful
• CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee) doubtful

Lions

• LT Taylor Decker (finger) out
• DE Michael Brockers (shoulder) questionable

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49ers at Lions odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

49ers 24, Lions 20

Money line

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Lions (+330) because I love the value with their spread and, generally like to sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when taking them plus points.

Against the spread

Everyone and their grandmother is betting the 49ers -8.5, adding their money line as an odds booster to their parlay and teasing San Francisco down to a better number.

However, it’s typically profitable fading lopsided betting markets and heavy favorites in the NFL, especially early in the season. It’s rare that a road team is favored more than a touchdown in Week 1.

Road teams getting at least 7.5 points in Week 1 are 3-1 ATS since 2011, and the pricing makes the 49ers-Lions contest comparable to those games. Each contest pitted a preseason Super Bowl-favorite against a team expected to finish in the basement of the NFL standings. This spot is no different.

However, I have a hunch new Detroit head coach Dan Campbell will have his guys ready to play in Week 1. Campbell has a completely different vibe than Patricia and he’ll rally the Lions around the “nobody believes in us” narrative.

I’m skeptical San Francisco’s regains its defensive form from 2019 because the secondary is older and thinner and former defensive coordinator Robert Saleh was hired for head coaching vacancy with the New York Jets. Detroit’s offensive line has some talent and can keep Goff upright long enough for the Lions to have success on offense.

GIMME the LIONS +8.5 (-108) for 1 unit.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 45.5 (-105) for a one-third unit since my predicted score isn’t that far off of Tipico’s listed total.

I’m expecting San Francisco to struggle a tad out of the gate offensively because it’ll need to knock the rust off since QB Jimmy Garoppolo and many of his weapons missed most of last year with injuries.

If 49ers-Lions is as one-sided as the market action then UNDER 45.5 (-105) could serve as a slight hedge for our Detroit wager if San Francisco dominates. The 49ers ranked 25th and 29th in pace over the past two seasons, according to Football Outsiders.

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