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AL Wild Card Series Game 2: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals look to advance and eliminate the Baltimore Orioles in Game 2 of their best-of-3 Wild Card Series Wednesday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 4:3 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Royals lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Orioles won 4-2

Kansas City took Tuesday’s opener 1-0 as +125 road underdogs with the Under (7) easily cashing. Royals SP Cole Ragans was brilliant, striking out 8 over 6 shutout innings. MLB batting champ SS Bobby Witt Jr. brought home the game’s lone run in the 6th inning with a 2-out, RBI single. RP Lucas Erceg closed the door on the Orioles, striking out 2 of the game’s final 3 batters after allowing a leadoff walk in the bottom of the 9th.

The Orioles are on the brink of getting eliminated for the 2nd consecutive year in their 1st-round matchup. The bats fell silent Tuesday, mustering only 5 hits and stranding 3 runners in scoring position — Baltimore finished 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. SP Corbin Burnes was the hard luck loser, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits and a walk over 8 innings with 3 strikeouts.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Zach Eflin

Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA) made 33 starts in 2024 with a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 206 2/3 innings. With a playoff spot clinched, the 9-year veteran only worked 2 innings as a tuneup for Wednesday’s start.

Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss at Atlanta Braves Saturday
2024 road splits: 9-3, 2.62 ERA (99 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 16 starts
Career vs. Orioles: 0-1, 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K in 3 games, including 1 start
2024 vs. Orioles (1 start): Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K in 5-0 home defeat April 21
Career postseason: 0-0, 1 save, 0.00 ERA (2 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 3 relief outings for Mets in 2022

Eflin (10-9, 3.59 ERA) made 28 starts between the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays this season. He posted a 1.15 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 165 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 1 K in 9-7 victory at New York Yankees Sept. 25
2024 vs. Royals (1 start): Win, 5 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 10-8 road victory as member of Rays July 4
Career vs. Royals: 3-1, 5.09 ERA (23 IP, 13 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 17 K in 4 starts
Career postseason stats: 0-1, 5.17 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 22 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 15 K in 11 games (1 start) for Phillies in 2022 and Rays in 2023

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Royals at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 2:25 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Royals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Orioles -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-165) | Orioles -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 3, Orioles 2

Moneyline

BET ROYALS (+130).

The young Orioles are still searching for that elusive postseason breakthrough. After winning 101 games last year, they were swept in a best-of-5 ALDS by the Texas Rangers, and the playoff pressure seems to be getting to them again. They needed to make a statement in Game 1 vs. the Royals, especially at home with their ace Burnes on the mound, but they couldn’t get it done. It’s starting to feel like the moment is still too big for this young Orioles squad.

On the other hand, the Royals are rolling out their best starter in Lugo for Game 2. Lugo has been impressive, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. He’s the kind of reliable arm you want in a game like this. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Eflin hasn’t looked good against the Royals, giving up 5 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts against them.

With the Royals coming in as underdogs and considering the recent form of both teams, TAKING KANSAS CITY (+130) on the moneyline feels like the right move. The Orioles (-155) still need to prove they can handle the postseason spotlight.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’ll keep my bet to the Royals on moneyline getting those plus odds.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).

Playoff baseball is a different beast — players are more cautious, the intensity is higher and runs are often harder to come by. That’s why it’s wise to lean toward the Under in these kinds of games.

The recent trends are also in our favor. The Under has hit in the last 2 meetings between these teams and is 3-2-1 in the last 6.

The Royals have been in a low-scoring groove, with the Under hitting in 7 of their last 8 games. Lugo has been a big part of that trend, with the Under cashing in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Orioles are also coming off 2 straight Under games.

With both sides likely to lean on strong pitching and playoff nerves in play, UNDER 7.5 (-110) is the smart choice here.

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AL Wild Card Series Game 2: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers continue their best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series with Game 2 in Houston Wednesday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Tigers lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Astros won 4-2

The Tigers took Game 1 of the series 3-1 Tuesday — as +128 road underdogs — behind a sensational performance from SP Tarik Skubal and 4 relievers. Detroit’s ace tossed 6 shutout innings around 4 hits and 1 walk with 6 K’s before the bullpen finished the job, holding Houston to 1 run over the final 3 innings as the Under (6.5) cashed.

The Astros scored in the bottom of the 9th — C Yainer Diaz RBI single — and had the tying run on 2nd with 1 out, but a flyout to left and a lineout to 1st base 2 batters later with the bases loaded ended the game.

Detroit scored all 3 of its runs in the top of the 2nd inning on consecutive, 2-out RBI singles by C Jake Rogers, SS Trey Sweeney and 3B Matt Vierling off of Houston SP Framber Valdez (4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K).

The Tigers, who made the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, were among the hottest teams in baseball over the last few months — 17-11 in August and 17-8 in September. They won 10 of their last 13 games, including 6 of the last 8, to close out the season. The Tigers finished 88-74 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, tying for 2nd best in the majors, according to Teamrankings.com. Cincinnati was 1st (90-72), followed by Detroit, Baltimore, Kansas City and Washington — all 88-74.

The AL Central champion Astros, who are in their 8th consecutive postseason and 9th in the last 10 years, now have their backs up against the wall in this best-of-3 setup. While they finished 83-78 ATS, they also ended the regular season on a high note, beating the Cleveland Guardians in the final 2 games and winning 6 of their last 9.

Houston was 46-35 at home before Tuesday’s loss, while Detroit was 43-38 on the road.

Tigers at Astros projected starters

LHP Tyler Holton vs. RHP Hunter Brown

Holton (7-2, 2.19 ERA), set to make his playoff debut, made 66 appearances, including 9 starts in 2024. He has a 0.78 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 across 94 1/3 innings.

Last outing: No-decision, 1 IP in relief, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-1 home win vs. Chicago White Sox Friday
Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-3 victory at Baltimore Orioles Sept. 22
2024 road stats: 3-2, 1.54 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.65 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 36 appearances, including 6 starts
Career vs. Astros: 0-0, 6.35 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K in 3 appearances
2024 vs. Astros: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 2 relief outings

Brown (11-9, 3.49 ERA) made 31 appearances and 30 starts this season. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 170 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 6-1 home loss vs. Seattle Mariners Sept. 23
2024 home stats: 5-5, 3.35 ERA (86 IP, 32 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 15 starts
Career vs. Tigers: 3-0, 2.93 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 in 4 starts and 1 relief outing
2024 vs. Tigers: 1-0, 0.75 ERA (12 IP, 1 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 0 BB, 16 K in 2 games, including 1 start (7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 9 K in 4-0 home shutout June 14)
Career in postseason: 0-0, 1.69 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 7 K in 7 relief appearances since 2022

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Tigers at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:50 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Tigers +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Astros -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Tigers +1.5 (-160) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Tigers at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Tigers 1

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no value here. Houston (-165) is too expensive of a favorite to play to win outright on the moneyline. Similarly, Detroit (+140) is a bit risky of an underdog to play as well.

Look to the spread for better value.

Run line/Against the spread

BET ASTROS -1.5 (+135).

The Astros won and covered in 4 of their last 8 home games. Their offense struggled Tuesday, but they have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 9 games. They should be able to find some traction Wednesday, especially as they’re set to take on many Tigers relievers. Even more impressive regarding the run line: Houston is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 wins.

The Tigers lost their last 2 games of the regular season — as big favorites vs. the lowly Chicago White Sox — yielding 13 runs in those 2 games. They received a masterpiece from Skubal in Game 1, which will be tough to repeat.

Expect Houston to prevail behind its pitching advantage Wednesday. TAKE ASTROS -1.5 (+135).

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

The Astros didn’t get much going Tuesday, but they have had a consistent offense over the last several weeks. In 3 of their last 8 regular-season games, they scored at least 8 runs and went 4-3-1 O/U.

The Tigers have a similar story. While they only scored in 1 inning Tuesday — though the 3-run inning was enough — they have been more consistent as of late, scoring at least 4 runs in 4 of the last 5 regular-season games.

Look for both offenses to find some rhythm in Game 2. BACK OVER 7.5 (-115).

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NL Wild Card Series Game 1: Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres meet in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Padres won 4-3

The Braves saved their best for last. In a makeup doubleheader against the New York Mets on Monday, Atlanta lost 8-7 in a wild Game 1. In Game 2, the Braves needed a win, and they notched a 3-0 victory as a heavy favorite (-275) as the Under (9) cashed.

Atlanta wrapped up the regular season 8-3 in the final 11 games, while the Under went 7-1-1 in the last 9 outings. The Braves allowed 1 or 0 runs in 4 of the final 6 contests, too.

LHP Chris Sale missed the regular-season finale due to back spasms, and he will not be available to pitch until at least the NLDS, should the Braves qualify.

The Braves have not yet announced a starter for Game 1 at the time of publishing.

The Padres lost 11-2 on Sunday to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the regular-season finale, but they managed an 11-4 record since Sept. 13. The Under went 10-2-1 in the final 13 contests.

Braves at Padres projected starters

TBD vs. RHP Michael King

The Braves have 3 options for Game 1. RHP Ian Anderson, RHP Bryce Elder and RHP AJ Smith-Shawver.

Anderson (4-0, 1.26 ERA) 35 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 20 H (1 HR), 17 BB, 40 K, .159 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 0.94 WHIP in 8 postseason starts. Hasn’t appeared in MLB since 2022
Elder (2-5, 6.52 ERA) 49 2/3 IP, 36 ER, 64 H (8 HR), 17 BB, 46 K, .311 OBA, 1.63 WHIP in 10 MLB starts in 2024
Smith-Shawver (0-0, 0.00 ERA), 4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K, .188 OBA, 1.15 WHIP in 1 MLB start in 2024

King (13-9, 2.95 ERA) made 30 regular-season starts and 1 relief appearance. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 4-2 road victory vs. LA Dodgers Sept. 24
2024 home splits: 4-5, 3.32 ERA, 78 2/3 IP, 29 ER, 8 HR, 29 BB, 109 K, .223 OBA, 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts
Last 7 games: 3-3, 2.11 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 32 H, 16 BB, 40 K, 1.25 WHIP
Career vs. Braves: 0-0, 0.00 (3 2/3 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 relief appearance in 2023
Career postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 1 relief appearance with New York Yankees in 2020

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Braves at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:28 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Braves +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Braves at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Braves 2

Moneyline

The PADRES (-165) are a moderate favorite against the Braves (+140), who are feeling fortunate to have made the postseason, but they’re likely to be a bit exhausted, too.

Atlanta had to expend a lot of energy to split a doubleheader against the Mets just to get into the postseason, and then it jumped a Delta Airlines charter flight which left Atlanta at 10:19 p.m. ET, arriving into San Diego at 2:24 a.m. ET. That’s a super-tough turnaround.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more ‘brave’, forget the moneyline and go straight to the PADRES -1.5 (+135) at plus-money.

Adrenaline will only go so far for the Braves +1.5 (-160), and they’re facing a tough customer in King. While the San Diego right-hander doesn’t have the postseason experience, he was red-hot down the stretch. And, Atlanta is scrambling for a starter after using top-tier pitching in the double dip just to get here.

Over/Under

UNDER 7 (-120) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play.

The Padres didn’t have to travel far from Arizona on Sunday, and they’ll likely have their hitting shoes on. However, expect the Braves to be a bit sluggish after the double dip, and the overnight travel. It’s a good combination to go low.

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NL Wild Card Series Game 1: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the 1st game of a best-of-3 NL Wild Card Series Tuesday at American Family Field. First pitch is slated for 5:32 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers won 5-1

The Mets (89-73) grabbed 1 of the final Wild Card spots by splitting a doubleheader with the Atlanta Braves Monday. They took the opening game 8-7 and dropped the finale 3-0, which got the Braves into the postseason as well. SS Francisco Lindor, the team’s MVP, hit a 2-run shot in the top of the 9th for the eventual win in the opener Monday.

The Brewers (88-72) just finished a series with the Mets over the weekend and took 2 of 3 with 8-4 and 6-0 victories and a 5-0 loss Sunday. 1B Rhys Hoskins is in a zone, hitting .294 with 2 HRs and 9 RBIs over the last 12 games.

Mets at Brewers projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Freddy Peralta

Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) made 31 starts and had a 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 182 IP.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K Tuesday against Atlanta Braves
Career vs. Brewers: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 3 starts

Peralta (11-9, 3.68 ERA) made 32 starts and had a 1.22 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K Wednesday against Pittsburgh Pirates
Career vs. Mets: 3-0, 2.60 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 3 starts

Mets at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated 12:53 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mets at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 5, Mets 4

Moneyline

The Brewers have the extra rest, have dominated the series and have home-field advantage. Peralta has been great against the Mets. I really don’t see any reason to not go BREWERS -140.

Run line/Against the spread

No value here so PASS. But Peralta had 9 and 7 K’s in his last 2 starts. He also had 8 K’s in his 1st start of the season against the Mets. So I’ll take FREDDY PERALTA OVER 5.5 K’S (-150).

Over/Under

It’s expected to be 65 degrees with a fierce 17-mph wind blowing out to center field at gametime if they have the roof open. That could lead to some fireworks. I look for runs to come aplenty. Take the OVER 7.5 (-115).

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AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros meet in a best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series Tuesday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is set for 2:32 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Astros won 4-2

The Tigers (86-76) won 10 of 13 games to end the regular season — 2 losses came after they had already clinched a Wild Card spot. Detroit’s 3.61 ERA is the 4th-lowest in MLB, but its 4.21 runs per game (RPG) ranks 19th and last among playoff teams.

The Astros (88-73) entered the season with the 3rd-shortest odds to win the World Series at +800, but now have the 5th-shortest odds (+900 at BetMGM Sportsbook) after a somewhat disappointing year. Houston managed to turn its season around after starting 7-19, but its 4.60 RPG (10th in MLB) is a letdown after averaging 5.09 last year, which was 5th in the majors.

Tigers at Astros projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Framber Valdez

Skubal made 31 starts this season, going 18-4 with an AL-best 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 192 IP.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 home victory over Tampa Bay Rays Sept. 24
2024 road stats: 8-3, 2.86 ERA (88 IP, 28 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 15 starts
2024 vs. Astros: 1-1, 4.26 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 2 starts
Career vs. Astros: 1-1, 3.16 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 4 starts

Valdez made 28 starts this season, going 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 176 1/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home victory vs. Seattle Mariners Sept. 24
2024 home stats: 9-2, 2.53 ERA (96 IP, 27 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 15 starts
2024 vs. Tigers: 1-0, 1 road start (May 10), 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-2 win
Career vs. Tigers: 2-2, 2.49 ERA (47 IP, 13 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 8 appearances (7 starts)

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Tigers at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Monday at 11:32 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Tigers at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 3, Astros 2

Moneyline

It’s hard to fade the TIGERS (+125) with Skubal on the mound — especially at plus money. Detroit used a 15-3 run Sept. 7-27 to clinch a Wild Card spot, allowing 3 or fewer runs in 12 of the 18 games.

Skubal ended the regular season as a -5000 favorite (bet $5,000 to win $100) at multiple books to take home the AL Cy Young Award. He’s allowed 2 or fewer ER in 10 of 12 starts since the All-Star break and has won 6 straight decisions over his last 9 starts.

Valdez went 0-3 in 3 playoff starts last year — all at home — giving up a total of 12 ER in 12 IP. While he did go 3-0 over 4 starts when the Astros won the 2022 World Series, his most recent postseason data points are slightly concerning.

Getting the red-hot Tigers at plus money with the AL Cy Young favorite on the mound is worth a play. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch — who was fired by the Astros in 2020 — has a good shot at getting his revenge Tuesday.

BET TIGERS (+125).

Run line/Against the spread

Detroit +1.5 (-200) should hit, but the bid-ask difference is too high.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

The Tigers are 3-0 to the Under in Skubal’s last 3 starts, and the Under is 1-0-1 in Valdez’s last 2. However, laying -120 without even getting the key number of 7 isn’t recommended. Don’t play this line unless you can get it at -108 or cheaper.

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-120).

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AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles clash Tuesday in Charm City as they swing into the postseason. First pitch in the opener of their best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Orioles won 4 of 6 games

Kansas City (86-76) overcame a pair of late-season losing streaks to earn the No. 2 AL Wild Card slot. The Royals sport an average offense but a top-notch pitching-and-defense combo. Kansas City’s 3.98 runs per game allowed ranks 6th in MLB.

Baltimore (91-71) was under-.500 (34-38) over its last 72 games, but did finish September on a strong note. The Orioles swept the Minnesota Twins over the weekend and went 5-1 over their last 6 games. Baltimore is the No. 1 AL Wild Card.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

LHP Cole Ragans vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Ragans made 32 starts this season, going 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 186 1/3 IP.

Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 1-0 win at Washington Nationals last Tuesday
Career vs. Orioles: 0-2, 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 6 BB, 14 K in 4 games (2 starts)
Notched a 1.08 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .515 OPS in 25 September innings
Making his 1st career postseason appearance

Burnes made 32 starts, going 15-9, with a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 194 1/3 IP.

Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 10-1 loss at New York Yankees Thursday
Career vs. Royals: 3-0, 2.15 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 21 H, 6 BB, 32 K in 5 starts
Owns a 1.29 ERA on the strength of a .550 OPS allowed since Aug. 28
Has registered a 2.84 ERA across 19 career postseason innings

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Royals at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Monday at 9:18 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Orioles -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Royals 3

Moneyline

PASS: look to the run line for a best-value opportunity.

Run line/Against the spread

The Orioles are 8-2 over their last 10 games while Kansas City is just 4-9 with a .531 OPS over its last 13 games. And the Royals are 1-3 over their last 4 series openers.

Ragans has benefitted from some low batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures of late. Per ESPN, current Baltimore bats own an aggregate .837 OPS against him.

Burnes has a postseason pedigree. Per ESPN, current K.C. bats own an aggregate .595 OPS against him.

Baltimore righting the ship late should give the Orioles a shot of confidence in this October opener.

BACK THE ORIOLES -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under

The Over is 4-2-1 across the last 7 series meetings. The last 5 Baltimore games have seen the Over cash 4 times (4-1).

The pitching matchup here certainly has the potential to make the rested-bullpen opener a pitchers’ duel. But recency bias has the bats not getting quite enough attention (or more likely has the pitchers getting just too much sway).

Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 7 (+100).

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