FSGA National Conference experts draft recap

A pick-by-pick review of The Huddle’s team in a prominent industry league.

The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) organizes several industry expert leagues, with the 14-team “Champions League,” hosted by RTSports.com, being the crown jewel.

I had the honor of competing in the premier grouping for a decade, making the postseason six of my last eight years, including a close loss in the finals. Understanding the necessity to take calculated risks on draft day is among the reasons for my consistency. Being afraid to take a chance or reach for a player — especially in this 14-team variant filled with excellent drafters — is a fast-track to being demoted from the league. Yeah, demoted. The bottom four teams get relegated to the next league down the chain.

Thus, there is a need to take bold actions at a level unprecedented in arguably any other professional draft. In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I covet than playing it too safe. Of course, there’s a nuanced blend of risk to work into a roster design, but it all comes down to making intelligent gambles.

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All of the FSGA leagues are performance-based PPR formats, and drafting a live league this early in the summer makes for a fun tightrope walk in some regards. Drafting in late June forces gamers to make a larger number of educated guesses on appropriate value of unsettled situations. These leagues do not allow trades, so the draft’s importance is paramount.

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My aggressive nature didn’t work out in 2022, and I was relegated to the National Conference draft. Last year’s bid to return to the Champions League was off to a hot start, going 6-0 before the wheels came off and I stumbled to an 8-6 finish. A fresh start puts me right back into the same position, so let’s look at the foundation I get to work with in 2024.

Full roster by round

Ovrl Rnd Player Pos Tm
8 1:08 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET
21 2:07 Josh Jacobs RB GB
36 3:08 Cooper Kupp WR LAR
49 4:07 Dalton Kincaid TE BUF
64 5:08 Zack Moss RB CIN
77 6:07 Najee Harris RB PIT
92 7:08 Jared Goff QB DET
105 8:07 Courtland Sutton WR DEN
120 9:08 Quentin Johnston WR LAC
133 10:07 Chase Brown RB CIN
148 11:08 Darnell Mooney WR ATL
161 12:07 Dylan Laube RB LV
176 13:08 Will Levis QB TEN
189 14:07 Baker Mayfield QB TB
204 15:08 Miami Dolphins D/ST MIA
217 16:07 Greg Zuerlein PK NYJ

Pick-by-pick review

Check out the entire draftboard here!

1:08) WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: I probably would have taken my chances with Justin Jefferson and all that is Minnesota’s QB situation had he made it one more pick, but I’m in no way upset with Brown. He’s a PPR machine in an offense that will continue to feed him on all three downs.

2:07) RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: While Jacobs comes with some durability concerns, he’s a workhorse who can contribute in the passing game and is the unquestioned starter in an offense that remains committed to the run. I expect a refreshed Jacobs looking to rebound from a down year.

3:08) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: Round 3 feels maybe a tad early, but it’s a 14-team PPR format. I’m banking on a return to health and one more top-flight season from the veteran. Puka Nacua‘s emergence surely is a concern, but his numbers weren’t all that impressive when Kupp was on the field a year ago.

4:07) TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills: This could be the most pivotal pick of my draft. Kincaid will challenge for TE1 overall in 2024. Round 4 is earlier than I prefer to address the position, and it my prove to cost me dearly at running back. It cost me Rhamondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and Zamir White as my RB2. I can live with that risk-reward decision.

5:08) RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals: After missing out on that aforementioned quartet of No. 2 running backs, I turned to Moss – one of my favorite contenders for a breakout season. He has limited talent behind him and flashed in prior stops. Cincinnati will feed him enough touches to post RB3 numbers as long as he’s remotely decent, but midrange No. 2 returns are in play.

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6:07) RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: Many owners prefer Jaylen Warren over Harris, and it’s tough to argue against it, yet I opted for Harris instead. I briefly considered Austin Ekeler here, but Pittsburgh hiring Arthur Smith to run the offense solidified my decision to err on the side of caution after risking my RB2 spot on Moss. Even with Warren’s strong play, Harris managed an RB2 finish in 2024 and is entering a contract year.

7:08) QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: I was set on taking Brock Purdy but lost out on him by a couple of picks. It led me to stacking Goff with St. Brown. The Lions return just about everyone of note from last year’s prolific offensive showing, and the drop-off to the next QB on my list was significant.

8:07) WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: After going top-heavy at WR, I waited until the midpoint to address the position again. Sutton was the final receiver on the board with whom I had any real comfort in selecting as my third, and he isn’t without concerns. Nevertheless, someone has to catch the ball in Denver, even if it’s from a rookie quarterback.

9:08) WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers: A polarizing selection, Johnston gets a fresh start to showcase his skills after a disappointing rookie campaign. The new offensive design isn’t exactly conducive to a pass-heavy script, though the former first-rounder has a legit quarterback and a largely unproven cast of receivers to battle for the top spot.

10:07) RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals: This one is purely a handcuff selection. Let’s say I’m wrong about Moss breaking out … that creates a fine opportunity for Brown to exploit. The 2024 fifth-round selection displayed some chops as a rookie, albeit in extremely limited work (58 touches), and Brown has little behind him in the way of competition.

11:08) WR Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears: Meh. Mooney’s best days are behind him in all likelihood, though he can muster a few flex fill-in performances with Kirk Cousins at the helm. There’s a small chance for a regular role if Drake London were to get injured, and another Kyle Pitts letdown isn’t unfathomable.

12:07) RB Dylan Laube, Las Vegas Raiders: Laube injects youth into my offense and offers a pass-catching option not found ahead of him on the depth chart in Vegas. He has turned heads in OTAs and makes for a fine flier this late in a 14-teamer.

13:08) QB Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: Levis has all the physical tools to excel. One of my favorite sleepers, the second-year pro has upgraded receivers and a quarterback-friendly offense being installed. Both running backs and the primary tight end can make splash plays in the passing game, too. Levis’ upside is too good to pass up.

14:07) QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Here’s where things get a little funky! Levis shares a bye week with my starter, Goff. Had it been a late-season bye I wouldn’t have batted an eye, but the Week 5 hiatus makes things a little precarious, hence the selection of a third QB. Mayfield, who faces Atlanta in Week 5, gives me added insurance if Levis struggles early on and/or Goff gets hurt. The takeaway here is embracing flexibility with your draft plans can lead you down unforeseen but profitable paths.

15:08) D/ST Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins: Despite lingering injuries and notable personnel losses across on three levels, Miami is a decent pick after waiting on the position in a 14-team draft in which owners started drafting DTs in the 12th and had seven off the board by Round 14. The early-season schedule is acceptable.

16:07) PK Greg Zuerlein, New York Jets: The last kicker off the board, Zuerlein is entirely expendable if he struggles early in the year. New York should be much more capable on offense with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. The big-legged booter offers distance value and is automatic inside 40 yards.

Roster composition

Pos Player Team Bye
QB Jared Goff DET 5
QB Will Levis TEN 5
QB Baker Mayfield TB 11
RB Josh Jacobs GB 10
RB Zack Moss CIN 12
RB Najee Harris PIT 9
RB Chase Brown CIN 12
RB Dylan Laube ® LV 10
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 5
WR Cooper Kupp LAR 6
WR Courtland Sutton DEN 14
WR Quentin Johnston LAC 5
WR Darnell Mooney ATL 12
TE Dalton Kincaid BUF 12
PK Greg Zuerlein NYJ 12
DT Miami Dolphins MIA 6

Will Rams RB Kyren Williams pick up where he left off?

Will the 2023 breakout back repeat his success in the upcoming season?

Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams was a breakout star last season as he quickly supplanted former starter Cam Akers and the stage was set for a huge season.

After a rookie season in which he had just 35 carries for 139 yards in 10 games. At best, he was viewed as a handcuff for Akers — until a strong training camp led to Williams winning the starting job and never looking back. In 12 games, he had 228 carries for 1,144 yards, caught 32 passes for 2016 yards, and scored 15 touchdowns. He had 20 or more carries in seven of his final nine games, which was unsurprising given head coach Sean McVay’s history.

McVay has consistently leaned on a lone back to have more than 15 carries a game – and often more than 20. It started with Todd Gurley and transferred to C.J. Anderson, Sony Michel and Akers. Williams earned his turn last season and averaged 19 carries a game.

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The critical factor is that McVay has always had someone waiting in the wings to replace the starter if he fell to injury or was ineffective. This year is no different. Despite Williams’ monster 2023 season, the Rams created a succession plan in the draft, using a third-round pick on Blake Corum from Michigan. Prior to the draft, several analysts drew comparisons of Corum’s skill set to Williams. On film, they looked like the same player in different uniforms. If something were to happen to Williams, the Rams offense wouldn’t have to change dramatically to switch over to Corum.

Expecting something bad happening to Williams isn’t paranoia. It may be inevitable. Williams has missed time in both of his first two seasons with foot and ankle injuries. Running backs with foot/ankle problems rarely have a long shelf life, because the injuries tend to recur over and over again.

Williams missed OTA practices this spring with another foot injury – attributed to his aggressive offseason workout program. That marked the fourth time since joining the NFL just over two years ago that Williams has been slowed with foot issues.

Fantasy football outlook

There are mixed feelings on draft day about handcuffing the top fantasy running back with his backup. Some believe it’s a critical investment, while others think it’s a wasted pick. In the case of Williams, however, there should be more unanimity about making sure whoever ends up with him also lands Corum (even if it means reaching for him).

McVay has built a history of saddling up one run back and riding him until he drops and then doing the same with his replacement. In 2021, Akers missed the entire regular season until the final game, yet had 67 carries in the postseason – more than twice the carries as the other Rams running backs combined.

Coming off his amazing 2023 season, Williams deserves to be an RB1 – some analysts have him as a top-five back. Given Williams’ troubling penchant for foot/ankle injuries, he can’t be counted on to play the entire season, so grabbing Corum as an RB4 – while too high for a backup – not only makes sense, it might be necessary. Only one of them will be the workhorse, but having both of them is required for sustained success.

Is there fantasy value to be found among Indianapolis Colts TEs?

Could a sleeper emerge from Indy’s tight end lot?

The Indianapolis Colts are still waiting to fully turn the page to a new era with quarterback Anthony Richardson, who flashed his dynamic ability as a rookie but was limited to just four games due to injuries. As a result, we have yet to see how he will mesh with his tight ends, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox.

Potentially one of the deeper tight end rooms in the league, the problem for fantasy production may be that none of them will be viewed as head-and-shoulders better than the other two. A TE-by-committee rarely produces fantasy stars.

Fantasy football preview: Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks

Geno Smith gets some competition, but will it even matter in fantasy football?

The Seattle Seahawks were expected to make a big splash were they parted with Russell Wilson in 2022. Instead, then-head coach Pete Carroll said he had the replacement in-house – veteran journeyman Geno Smith.

Smith was a pleasant surprise in 2022, throwing for almost 4,300 yards and 30 touchdowns. He took a backward step in 2023, dropping to 20 touchdown passes in 15 games. With Carroll gone, the loyalty to Smith isn’t as strong and the Seahawks showed that by swinging a trade with the Washington Commanders to acquire Sam Howell, who started every game last year.

For now, it is Smith’s starting job to lose, but the front office has made it clear that there is a succession plan in place.

Fantasy football: Cincinnati Bengals running back breakdown

What does life after Joe Mixon look like in Cincy?

For most of the last seven seasons, the Cincinnati Bengals‘ rushing attack has gone through running back Joe Mixon, who averaged 1,331 combined yards and 9.7 touchdowns during his six full years on the job — 2020 was omitted since he played just six games. Cincy decided it was time to turn the page during the offseason, however, shipping Mixon off to the Houston Texans for a seventh-round pick.

That move came shortly after the Bengals agreed to a two-year, $8 million contract with free-agent RB Zack Moss, who was immediately penciled into the lead role in Cincinnati’s backfield. Beyond that, the club will be relying on low-usage RBs Chase Brown, Trayveon Williams, and Chris Evans, all of whom were on the roster in 2023.

While Mixon was the bell cow during his time in the Queen City, that doesn’t mean we should expect Moss to simply step into that role. With that in mind, let’s take an early look at how Cincinnati’s running back room will look in the upcoming season.

Fantasy football outlook: New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers

Just what should we expect from a 40-year-old Rodgers in 2024?

The New York Jets rolled out the red carpet for Aaron Rodgers in 2023 seeking to repeat the Super Bowl magic Peyton Manning and Tom Brady captured after leaving the franchises they made famous. However, Rodgers’ first season in New York lasted just four plays before he tore his left Achilles – lending itself to a league-worst 13th straight year missing the playoffs.

His Hall of Fame resume is undeniable. Prior to last year, in 15 seasons as a starter, Rodgers has topped 4,000 passing yards 10 times and threw 30 or more touchdowns eight times.

The Jets have surrounded Rodgers with plenty of talent, and he’s now fully recovered. Third-year man Garrett Wilson has posted a pair 1,000-yard seasons with suspect quarterbacks, and they signed veteran Mike Williams (knee) away from the Chargers to give the Jets a potent one-two punch at the top of the depth chart. But Rodgers has potent weapons aside from just his top two receivers.

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Running back Breece Hall caught 76 passes for 591 yards to finish second on the team. Tight end Tyler Conklin added 61 receptions – Rodgers has a history of utilizing tight ends at a high level. The team drafted Malachi Corley in the third round – a player who has drawn comparisons to Deebo Samuel for his run-after-the-catch ability. Rodgers has no shortage of weapons at his disposal.

However, the biggest change the Jets made in the offseason was to overhaul the offensive line protecting Rodgers. They added three veteran offensive starters – tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses and guard John Simpson. Those moves allow Alijah Vera-Tucker to move back to guard (where he can dominate). Center Joe Tippmann is a highly effective run blocker. The team committed so much to the offensive line that it used the 11th pick of the draft on tackle Olu Fashanu to provide immediate tackle depth, in case of injury, and a succession plan.

With one of the league’s best defenses already in place, if Rodgers comes back as strong as can be expected, the Jets have the best chance in a long time to end their playoff drought.

Fantasy football outlook

The fantasy prospectus for Rodgers is tempered somewhat as the warning signs of decline were evident when the Packers decided to move on from him. He had the fewest passing yards in any full season of his career, threw the most interceptions since his first season as a starter, and had the lowest passer rating of his career. If there was a time for Green Bay to go in a different direction, Rodgers gave them the justification.

The ADP number for Rodgers has him landing at about QB20, which would make him the last quarterback taken in 10-owner leagues or a reasonable backup investment in conventional 12-team formats. It’s certain someone will take Rodgers markedly higher than his ranking, because he’s a Hall of Fame player and brings big-play nostalgia.

Rodgers offers little as a rusher, so most weeks his production will come exclusively from his arm. In the modern NFL, dual-threat quarterbacks are the prototype. The Jets have made moves in the draft and free agency to maximize Rodgers’ talents, but he isn’t an every-week fantasy starter. As a QB2 on a fantasy roster to plug-and-play when necessary? The line will be waiting to land him there.

Which Green Bay Packers backup RB should you target?

Josh Jacobs is the clear RB1, but who is his best handcuff target?

With the youngest offense in the NFL last year and a first-year starting quarterback in Jordan Love, the Green Bay Packers endured some growing pains. They rounded into form late, however, winning eight of their final 12, including a rout of the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs. While most of that group returns intact, the team made changes in the backfield.

Gone is running back Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings), who was released after refusing a pay cut. For as good as Jones has been, durability was an issue. The team hopes free-agent signee RB Josh Jacobs will be sturdier in the RB1 role. Although he had mediocre production a season ago, he’s just one year removed from a 2,053-yard, 12-touchdown overall performance that earned him first-team All-Pro honors.

Even with the switch from Jones to the younger Jacobs, don’t expect head coach Matt LaFleur to alter his approach when it comes to utilizing two backs. In five seasons on the job, MLF has given his lead back an average of 203 carries to 145 for RB2 — a 58/42 split in terms of percentage. Perhaps that skews a little heavier to Jacobs’ side, but there should still be plenty of work for whoever emerges as the No. 2 option.

Can Baker Mayfield build on last year’s success?

A new OC but returning personnel puts Mayfield in an intriguing scenario.

Baker Mayfield entered last season at the crossroads of his career. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were his fourth team in three seasons. He was unceremoniously exiled from Cleveland four years after being the first overall pick in the 2018 draft and had stops with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams in 2022. When he showed up in Tampa Bay to replace Tom Brady it had all the looks of a placeholder quarterback on a one-year, prove-it deal with no guarantees.

What followed was a career year for Mayfield. He set personal highs for attempts (566), completions (364), completion percentage (64.3), passing yards (4,044), and touchdowns (28). He led the Buccaneers to a 5-1 record in their final six games to win the NFC South, and Mayfield became a made man in Tampa. That performance set him up to sign a three-year, $100 million deal that all but assures that he will be the quarterback for the next two years and more than likely all three.

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Looking at his overall numbers last season, Mayfield gave fantasy managers much more than expected, finishing seventh in passing touchdowns and ninth in passing yards – overperforming his draft status (in leagues where he was drafted at all). His numbers really shouldn’t have come as a surprise, because he was surrounded by an extremely talented supporting cast.

Mike Evans shattered the preexisting record for consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start a career. His first year with Mayfield was his 10th straight with more than 1,000 yards, which produced his most receptions and receiving yards since 2018 — exceeding his numbers during Brady’s pass-happy run. Chris Godwin added 83 receptions for 1,024 yards, giving the Buccaneers a 1-2 punch at wide receiver that compares favorably to any tandem in the league for their sustained effectiveness.

But it doesn’t end there. Running back Rachaad White caught 64 passes (two or more receptions every game). Tight end Cade Otton caught 47 passes and scored four touchdowns, and Trey Palmer had 39 grabs (at least one in every game). Mayfield spread the ball around, appeasing both the star players and the supporting cast by making sure they all saw their share of opportunities.

Fantasy football outlook

Most ADP rankings have Mayfield ranked in the low 20s, among quarterbacks, which would mean he likely isn’t drafted in 10-team leagues but is a solid QB2 in standard formats. His weekly numbers smack in the face of that ranking. Mayfield had six games with 275 or more passing yards (five in eight home games) and 10 games with two or more touchdown passes (seven in nine road games). He didn’t have a glaring weakness at home or on the road.

Mayfield will be available deep into fantasy drafts and may again go undrafted. For someone who invested in a star QB early or plays the matchups, Mayfield looks like an ideal QB2. He is surrounded by too much talent – both in terms of high-end players and quality depth – to ignore. He has a new offensive coordinator (Liam Coen), but they worked together in his time with the Rams, giving Mayfield a leg up on the transition.

It may take an injury or byes for Mayfield to get in weekly lineups, but he has the supporting cast to once again surpass fantasy expectations.

Evaluating Justin Herbert’s fantasy football outlook

Will Herbert rebound with a new coaching staff and weaker receiving corps?

Based purely on talent, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is near the top of the heap, boasting plus athleticism, a great arm, and the confidence to attempt just about any throw. His numbers haven’t been as impressive. After passing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in his sophomore season, the former Oregon Duck saw his output dip to 4,739 yards and 25 TDs in 2022, and then 3,134 yards with just 20 TDs last year. A

finger injury cost Herbert the final four games, but even projecting his numbers comes out to a relatively disappointing 4,098 yards and 26 TDs.

The only constant throughout Herbert’s four seasons has been change, playing under a trio of offensive coordinators (Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi, and Kellen Moore). That continues in 2024 as new head coach Jim Harbaugh has brought Greg Roman along as OC. On the personnel side, the standout receiver tandem of Keenan Allen (Chicago Bears) and Mike Williams (New York Jets) are both gone, as is tight end Gerald Everett (Bears).

On the field, Allen, who caught 380 passes over the last four seasons, is the biggest loss. It’s the change off it that could make an even bigger difference, however, as the tandem of Harbaugh and Roman have made no secret about their desire to control the line of scrimmage and run the football. It’s a philosophy that was driven home by the selection of offensive tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft. LA also overhauled the running back room, signing former Baltimore Ravens J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards as the top two backs.

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At receiver, the Bolts will try to replace Allen and Williams with returning talent Joshua Palmer (38-581-2 in 2023) and last year’s first-rounder Quentin Johnston (38-431-2), free-agent signee DJ Chark Jr. (35-525-5) with the Carolina Panthers), and second-round selection Ladd McConkey. There are some interesting names here, particularly if Johnston can develop into the player that thought they were getting with the 21st overall pick a year ago, but nobody comes with the track record of Williams, much less Allen.

Fantasy football outlook

A change in coaching, a change in offensive philosophy, and a change in personnel. Add it all up and it’s a lot to overcome for anyone, especially when you consider that Herbert has already seen his numbers trend in the wrong direction the past couple of years. That’s the glass half-empty perspective.

The optimistic viewpoint centers on Herbert’s skill set and a belief that you don’t pay a quarterback north of $50 million per season to have him throw 20 passes a game. He’s a tremendous talent, and he has shown a willingness throughout his career to target whoever is on the field in any situation, so don’t expect him to be gun shy with lesser known wideouts. Whether they can deliver is yet to be known.

While he’s best viewed as a QB2, Herbert carries viable upside. He may prove to be frustrating to play in fantasy, however.

Fantasy football: Sifting through Denver Broncos running backs

What should fantasy gamers expect from this crowded backfield?

It was just two years ago that the Denver Broncos looked to feature a talented one-two punch in the backfield with an ascending Javonte Williams and a steady veteran in Melvin Gordon. Now, this might be the most unsettled backfield in the NFL, featuring five legitimate contenders to be factors in 2024 and a total of zero sure things.

Last year’s squad finished 18th in yardage (106.5 per game), tied for 21st in yards per carry, and tied for 28th in rushing scores (8). All three of their leading rushers return with Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine back for Year 2 in head coach Sean Payton’s system, while two more names were added in fifth-round pick Audric Estime and priority undrafted free agent Blake Watson.

It’s a mess, and though much will be sorted out in camp, it’s never too early to look at what might be on tap for 2024.