Tag: 2022 fantasy football tips

Fantasy football: Buccaneers WRs under the microscope

Tampa’s receiving corps will look a little different in 2022.

Six months ago, things looked bleak for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their quest to repeat as Super Bowl champions had fallen short, and quarterback Tom Brady had subsequently hung up his cleats. The heartache didn’t last long, however, as the 45-year-old reversed his decision in March and immediately returned the Buccaneers to contender status.

That doesn’t mean there haven’t been changes, highlighted by the retirement of Brady’s longtime favorite, tight end Rob Gronkowski, and the signings of free-agent wide receivers Russell Gage (Atlanta Falcons) and Julio Jones (Tennessee Titans). With Brady having passed for 10,949 yards and 83 TDs over his two years with the Bucs, it’s a good time to look at his top options and how the pie might be divvied up in 2022.

Fantasy football IDP rookie dynasty rankings

Rookie rankings for IDP dynasty fantasy football leagues.

Drafting in a dynasty format that includes individual defensive players (IDP)? Here’s how the 2022 rookie class stacks up for long-term fantasy football value.

Also see fantasy football IDP rankings DL | LB | DB | Overall

Fantasy football: Seattle Seahawks running backs breakdown

Revisiting Seattle’s backfield after Chris Carson’s retirement.

With the trade of Russell Wilson in the offseason, the Seattle Seahawks made it clear that the team is in offensive rebuilding mode and bridging the gap with pedestrian quarterbacks Drew Lock and Geno Smith. When Wilson came to Seattle a decade ago, he wasn’t expected to be the immediate starter but won the job in training camp and forced his way into the starting lineup as rookie.

The feeling was that Seattle’s offense could be built around the running game. Pete Carroll had deep stable of running backs, headed up by Marshawn Lynch. A decade later, it appears the same blueprint is going to be used as the team moves on from not only Wilson but former featured back Chris Carson, who retired from a neck injury. With Rashaad Penny, rookie Kenneth Walker III, DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer, Seattle has the horses to make the new offense work, but will any of them stand up and stand out?

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T.J. Hockenson faces a crucial fantasy football season in 2022

A pivotal year is ahead for the former first-round draft choice.

A year ago, one could make a pretty strong case that Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson was the only legitimate weapon the team had in its passing attack. Fast-forward to now, however, and that is no longer the case thanks to the development of wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (90-912-5), drafting of Jameson Williams (knee), and the veteran additions of Josh Reynolds, who was claimed off waivers last year, and DJ Chark Jr., who was signed from the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency.

As always when talent is added, it serves as something of a double-edged sword for Hockenson heading into his fourth season. On the plus side, the former first-round pick can no longer be the central focus for opposing defenses whenever quarterback Jared Goff drops back to pass. Of course, the downside is that Goff will have more options at his disposal, including Reynolds, who he’s familiar with from their time together with the Los Angeles Rams, and St. Brown, who emerged as a very reliable target over the final month-plus of 2021.

While the pathway to fantasy relevance looks a bit more daunting on the surface for Hockenson, there are some caveats worth exploring. For starters, it’s unclear when Williams will return from the torn ACL he suffered during the National Championship Game in January. Odds are the Lions will be careful with their prized wideout in a year when they’re not expected to compete for a playoff berth, so he may not even be a factor until later in the season.

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St. Brown closed incredibly strong to be sure — 51 receptions (on 67 targets), 560 yards, and five touchdowns over the final six games — but it’s important to remember that Hockenson was lost for the season to a thumb injury in Week 13 and missed the last five weeks. Clearly, the Iowa product’s absence had a lot to do with St. Brown’s massive uptick in usage, and with both guys being possession options there’s no reason to believe Goff would heavily favor one over the other.

Beyond usage, durability is another issue with Hockenson, as he has suffered season-ending injuries in two of his three NFL campaigns. In 2019, it was an ankle issue, and last year’s thumb injury required surgery to correct. He’s healthy now and ready to go, but missing nine games in three years must be viewed as at least a minor red flag, even if the injuries aren’t the sort to cause long-term concern.

Fantasy football outlook

While not a true boom-or-bust type player, Hockenson has moderate variance between his ceiling and his floor. He doesn’t belong in the top five at the position, but he could slide into that next group of five, making him a midrange or low-end TE1.

Fantasy football draft prep: Breaking biases

Don’t get stuck in your ways of how you view players and situations in fantasy football.

All too often, advanced fantasy football gamers included, owners allow the past to dictate future draft plans through cognitive biases. Even full-time fantasy players need to remember from time to time that the game changes year over year and requires a press of the reset button.

In a sport where 11 constantly moving chess pieces work in harmony against a matching number of defenders trying to stifle any plans of a checkmate, all it takes is a small change to make a huge difference.

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I’ve written a number of times about expectations and how we perceive players based on what we think they will do on the field, whether it be weekly or annually. All it takes is being slightly wrong in our view of a situation to see those projections fall apart. We cannot control injuries, and life throws extenuating circumstances into the mix, but recognizing our own biases about teams and players absolutely can be controlled.

Objectivity is arguably the most important element in creating a fantasy championship. Luck always factors in, and remaining on top of the news is thoroughly important as well. Just as being armed with a reliable set of rankings is pivotal, also the ability to check emotions and individual experiences at the door is paramount. A mental checklist of “dos and don’ts” should be on everyone’s brain as they prepare for a draft and evaluate talent.

Fantasy football spotlight: WR Mike Williams, Chargers

Where will Williams’ game head after a career year?

Selected seventh overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams put together a moderately successful four-year run heading into play last season. Over those first four years, he’d topped 1,000 yards (once), reached double-digit TDs (once), and averaged 16.7 yards per catch — that last number cementing his status as a potent downfield threat. Still, he never caught 50 passes in a season heading into 2021 and was no lock to be part of the team’s long-term plans.

Entering the final season of his rookie deal, Williams picked the right time to put together his best year to date, collecting 76 receptions, 1,146 yards, and nine touchdowns. While those wouldn’t be viewed as monster numbers, it was enough to earn Williams a three-year, $60 million deal to remain in LA.

Even in his best overall campaign, it was still an up-and-down performance from Williams in 2021. He opened the year by posting more than 80 yards receiving four times over the Chargers’ first five games and scoring a half-dozen times. After that, however, the Clemson product managed a lone score over his next nine outings with only two games of more than 65 yards receiving.

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Doubtless the team will be looking for more consistency this year, though Williams will almost assuredly be less reliable than veteran wideout Keenan Allen based on the former’s designation as more of a field stretcher. At 6-foot-4, 218 pounds, the sixth-year pro is among the NFL’s best in that department with the size to win on 50/50 balls as well as the speed to get over the top.

Fantasy football outlook

The question for fantasy owners is how much upside still exists with Williams? Unfortunately, that’s hard to say. If you want to argue he has another level to reach, such a case would probably begin with continued development from quarterback Justin Herbert, who is only entering his third year and looks poised to join the NFL’s elite — like Williams, the Oregon alum needs more consistency. The counter would be that Williams, who is entering his age-28 season, is already in his prime physically, and he has continued to offset strong performances with no-shows. Why would Year 6 be any different?

At this stage Williams feels a bit overextended if you’re counting on him to produce WR2 numbers on a weekly basis. If you can grab him as your third receiver, however, there’s certainly enough upside there to deliver big performances and average out as a viable No. 2 over a full season. He’s poised to be overvalued in more casual settings.

Fantasy football preview: RB Miles Sanders, Eagles

After 163 scoreless touches in 2021, what can we expect from the once-promising Sanders?

The Philadelphia Eagles have been looking to install Miles Sanders their long-term featured running back, but the biggest issue since his rookie season in 2019 has been keeping him on the field.

Sanders set a solid standard in his rookie year when he was in a timeshare with Jordan Howard, leading the team with 179 carries for 818 yards, catching 50 passes for 509 yards and scoring six touchdowns. The team thought enough of Sanders to allow Howard to leave via free agency in 2020, but Sanders hasn’t held up in the two seasons since. He missed four games due to injury in 2020 and missed five games last year, which opened the door to the returning Howard, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell to get more reps – and steal touchdowns. Those three backs and quarterback Jalen Hurts combined to score 25 rushing touchdowns, while Sanders ended up with none.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni didn’t mince words at the start of training camp when asked about Sanders taking reps with the second team in practice, saying, “Miles is our guy. There’s no secret here.”

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As he enters the final year of his rookie contract, Sanders has millions of reasons why he wants to put his stamp on the offense despite seeing a decline in rushing attempts (179-164-137), receptions (50-28-26) and scrimmage yards (1,327-1,064-912), respectively, in his first three seasons.

The Eagles struggled out of the gate last season before committing much more to the run in the second half of the year. With Hurts leading the way in rushing (793 yards), the Eagles vaulted themselves to the No. 1-ranked rushing offense in the league. However, that coincided with Sanders missing five games and Howard, Scott and Gainwell taking turns in the backfield.

If he can stay healthy, Sanders has the potential to be elite. His 5.1-yard career rushing average ranks third in the league among running backs with 400 or more carries, behind only Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor. His 5.66 yards per touch is fourth among running backs, behind Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey and Taylor.

Anyone who has seen Sanders on a regular basis knows that he can make highlight film plays – he had a rush of 23 or more yards in seven of the games he played last season and, in 2020, had touchdown runs of 82 and 74 yards.

There is a concern in Philadelphia that the offense is going to employ a three-back system, because Scott and Gainwell proved themselves worthy of getting more playing time by their performances last year, but Sanders led the team in rushing attempts in 10 of the 12 games he played. The emergence of 2021 rookie DeVonta Smith and the arrival of game-changing wide receiver A.J. Brown gives the Eagles the opportunity to be much more productive in the passing game, which, in turn, could open things up for Sanders in the run game without eight defenders in the box most plays. Even with more passing expected, Sanders’ explosiveness lends to a high per-touch efficiency rating.

Fantasy football takeaway

When it comes to assessing the fantasy value of Sanders, zero touchdowns in 2021 is a cause for concern, which drops him to the lower portion of RB2 status. A risk-reward gamble with the ability to be a RB1, his injury history and the potential of a shared backfield group taps the brakes on any real enthusiasm.

Fantasy football preview: RB A.J. Dillon, Packers

Green Bay’s talented RB tandem has plenty to offer fantasy footballers.

Some folks were stunned when the Green Bay Packers drafted running back A.J. Dillon in the second round of the 2020 draft. The team had more pressing needs, already boasting Pro Bowler Aaron Jones and dependable between-the-tackles slogger Jamaal Williams.

As a rookie, Dillon never gained any traction. In 11 games, he had more than five carries just once and 124 of his 224 rushing yards came in one game. It had the feel of a redshirt season.

A little more than a year later, a lot has changed. Williams moved on to Detroit, and Dillon not only came into his own for the Packers but carved out a significant part of the run game – leading Green Bay in carries (187) rushing yards (803) and rushing touchdowns (five).

Jones gets a lot of the fantasy football attention because of his big-play ability and scoring prowess – Jones and Derrick Henry are the only running backs in the NFL to score double-digit touchdowns each of the last three years. However, the season-long disparity in touches between Jones and Dillon was closer than many envisioned when 2021 began.

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Of the final 12 games both Dillon and Jones played in, Jones had more carries than Dillon in just seven of them. The Packers had only two games in which a running back carried the ball 20 or more times and both of them were Dillon. He’s no longer mired in Jones’ shadow. The two of them are a legitimate tandem, as shown by Dillon being on the field for 43 percent of Green Bay’s offensive snaps.

What makes the Packers an interesting team to watch this season is that Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to have his two main receiving weapons having traded Davante Adams and letting Marquez Valdes-Scantling leave via free agency. He’s left with a fourth-year role player (Allen Lazard), an old man (Randall Cobb), a career underachiever (Sammy Watkins), and a small-college rookie (Christian Watson) as his primary targets. Those first three can all be single-covered, and Watson has a big learning curve in front of him. Rodgers must depend on his running backs to be a bigger part of the offense – both running the ball and catching it.

This doesn’t mean the Packers are suddenly going to turn into the San Francisco 49ers and run the ball 30 or more times a game, but for the first time in a long time, the strength of Green Bay’s offense is leaning much more toward the runners than the receivers and even the quarterback.

Fantasy football takeaway

For fantasy purposes, Jones remains a RB1 because of his scoring ability, aerial chops, and track record. Dillon is viewed as more than merely a handcuff player for Jones. He has the ability to be on the field much more than he has yet to date and could be a legitimate No. 2, but with so many other clear-cut starters available, he likely has to remain an RB3.

Will J.K. Dobbins be ready for Week 1 fantasy lineups?

What kind of timeline can gamers expect from the rehabbing rusher?

Heading into last season, Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins (knee) was among the most popular breakout candidates in all of fantasy football, and for good reason. As a rookie the Ohio State product carried the ball 134 times for 805 yards (an eye-popping 6.0 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns, and that was with veteran Mark Ingram (now with the New Orleans Saints) soaking up 72 carries. Once atop the depth chart, Dobbins appeared poised for a big sophomore campaign.

That all changed on Aug. 28 during the team’s final preseason game when Dobbins suffered a torn ACL that would cost him the entirety of 2021. Just over a year will have passed when the 2022 regular season kicks off for Baltimore on Sunday, Sept. 11, against the New York Jets, and both the team and player are hopeful that Dobbins will be on the field. There have been no reported setbacks in his recovery, and he’s been vocal about wanting to play in the opener.

Whether he will, however, remains unclear. Dobbins is currently on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, alongside No. 2 back Gus Edwards (knee), who is coming off his own torn ACL, and it’s doubtful the team will push either player after relying on retreads like Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray last year — both remain unsigned, which tells you how they’re viewed around the league.

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Still, it feels likely that Dobbins will be ready sooner than later; even if he misses a game or two out of the gates, odds are the Ravens will activate him before finalizing their 53-man roster, since keeping him on the PUP would require the third-year pro to miss a minimum of four games. Head coach John Harbaugh recently suggested we could see Dobbins return to practice as soon as Monday, Aug. 8, which would allow for a look at him prior to most owners draft.

Once he’s cleared, Dobbins should serve as the lead back. That shouldn’t be confused with being a workhorse in the vein of the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor, though, as head coach John Harbaugh has long liked to mix and match his backs, and he has a very capable No. 2 in Edwards, whenever he returns. Further down the depth chart is a mix of veterans like Mike Davis and Corey Clement, and unproven players like Justice Hill (Achilles) and rookie Tyler Badie.

While Dobbins figures to get the highest usage, bear in mind he entered the NFL with questions about his ability as a receiver, and he did little to answer those as a rookie when he caught just 18 passes for 220 yards. That could mean a limited role for the former Buckeye on obvious passing downs, though Edwards has done even less as a pass catcher, so perhaps Dobbins will surprise in that regard. Ultimately, this offense just doesn’t incorporate its backs in the aerial game enough to move the need in that regard.

Fantasy football outlook

There’s less buzz around Dobbins this year than last, but that could work in your favor as he’s likely to be available later in drafts. As a high-end RB3 with some upside, he’d be worth pulling the trigger. Be patient with his early-season returns.

Fantasy football preview: WR Hunter Renfrow, Raiders

Will Renfrow capitalize on a career year, or will Davante Adams’ arrival get in the way?

When a player is the No. 1 receiver for a team with more than 100 receptions and 1,000 yards the previous season, the last thing many would think is he may be the odd man out the following year. However, that’s what many are projecting for Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow.

In his third NFL season in 2021, Renfrow nearly equaled his production from his first two years, catching 103 passes for 1,038 yards and nine touchdowns. He was consistent throughout the season in terms of receptions – you need to be to catch 100 passes – but came on big late in the season. Renfrow had 12 games with five or more receptions and, over the last seven games, caught 47 passes for 514 yards and five touchdowns.

Everything was looking up for Renfrow to put on a repeat performance this year, but that took a hit when the Raiders swung a blockbuster trade to acquire Davante Adams from Green Bay. Adams had more than 110 catches and more than 1,350 yards in three of the last four years and, in his last four seasons (57 games), scored 47 touchdowns. He has been the most lethal fantasy receiver in the league over that span and brings his talents to Las Vegas to offer Derek Carr the most dangerous receiving option he’s ever had.

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The other perception that has people questioning Renfrow’s 2022 fantasy outlook is the return of playmaking tight end Darren Waller. Waller missed six games last season after catching 107 passes for almost 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. His absence left a void in the Raiders’ passing attack that was largely filled by Renfrow. Without Waller and Henry Ruggs, Renfrow was just about all Carr had left.

The new scenario isn’t unusual for what the Raiders offense had planned as it’s just replacing Ruggs with Adams. Ruggs’ NFL career is likely over as he awaits trial on an alleged drunk driving charge that led to the death of a 23-year-old woman.

Many are of the opinion that Renfrow will be left behind the A&W (Adams & Waller) juggernaut, but just the opposite may be true.

While Adams and Waller are supreme talents at their positions, the job of a slot receiver, like Renfrow, is to find the open seams in a defense – sticking his foot in the ground and getting separation. Both Adams and Waller are going to demand additional defensive attention, meaning Renfrow will likely see single coverage on almost every pattern, which Carr will take full advantage of to move the chains and set up big plays downfield. Even though the volume is sure to decrease, Renfrow’s crafty route skills position him for more efficiency in the red zone.

Fantasy football takeaway

From the fantasy draft perspective, most guys coming off a 100-catch, 1,000-yard, nine-touchdown season would be viewed as a WR1 or high WR2 candidate. However, slot receivers rarely get the credit they deserve. With the targets Adams and Waller are likely to command, Renfrow is most likely a low-end WR3 candidate with a position rank in the mid-30s. If you can get him there, he could be a valued member of any fantasy roster, particularly in PPR.