Every year, a handful of players rebound in a big way, and we have them pegged for 2020.
Every season, several proven players regress and even fall off of the fantasy football map due to injury, demotion, a poor system fit, or another unforeseen calamity. Players of the fake game understandably tend to be of the, “What has he done for me lately?” mindset. Heading into the 2020 season, let’s explore which players are most likely to bounce back from a down year in 2019.
QB Baker Mayfield | Cleveland Browns | ADP: 10:09
Mayfield’s rookie season closed out about as well as anyone could have expected in 2018 before the wheels came off under the one-and-done tenure of Freddie Kitchens as a head coach. Replacing Kitchens is Kevin Stefanski, a level-headed, well-groomed offensive mind whose roots in the West Coast offense should help as much as his demeanor. There’s no question the Browns are extremely talented on offense. The line has a few work-in-progress areas, but the combination of a zone-blocking system with a play-action emphasis will be the ticket to getting Mayfield back on track. He’s a better athlete than often given credit for being, and early reports say he has fully bought in to Stefanski’s ways.
After a QB16 finish last year, the expectations are modest. Lowered expectations comes with less pressure, and all of these aspects tie together for a maturing quarterback who sometimes is his own worst enemy. Look for low-end QB1 results via efficiency increases, fewer stalled drives and turnovers, and an emphasis on taking smart shots down the field.
RB James Conner | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 4:01
An efficient, consistent producer who had a nose for the end zone in 2018, the Steelers having four capable backs indicates they may look to keep Conner fresh all year after he has failed to stay healthy for 16 games with an increased role. During his breakout ’18 campaign, the Pittsburgh product ran only 215 times in 13 games (16.5 per week) and touched the ball just over 20 total times, on average. He made a name for himself in fantasy circles with 12 showings of double-digit PPR points and a dozen touchdowns scored on the turf, adding one through the aerial game.
In 2019, though, injuries, no Ben Roethlisberger, and an overall stunted offense put a target on Conner’s back for defenders. His rushing average dipped by half a yard, and 1.6 yards per reception were shaved from his passing work. He touched the ball 15 times per appearance. That has to change. Even if he handles it only 15 times a game in 2020, the efficient version of him we saw the year prior must return or this recommendation is not going to work. Big Ben returns to health. JuJu Smith-Schuster should be better and healthy. A huge year is possible from WR Diontae Johnson. The passing game gained more depth, as did the backfield, with the selection of Anthony McFarland Jr. as a change-of-pace option. Conner, in 16 games, even at 15 touches as an average, still has a chance to creep into the low-tier RB1 territory. He remains a risk-reward target as a second back, offering more security in PPR.
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WR Odell Beckham Jr. | Cleveland Browns | ADP: 3:07
Coinciding with the inclusion of his quarterback in this list, Beckham stands to benefit greatly from the move to this new offense. He played in a West Coast design before, and Stefanski’s version will find ways to utilize Beckham down the field to take advantage of his game-breaking skill set. The 2019 version of the Browns struggled so much to protect Mayfield, who never really was on the same page with OBJ, and it led to a lot of underneath work for Jarvis Landry.
The Minnesota offense under Stefanski supported a pair of talented receivers when both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen were healthy, spanning late 2018 through the end of 2019. A balanced attack with a pair of legitimate No. 1 backs will be the driver of this offense, which isn’t to say Beckham will struggle to return to WR1 status. Expect his target share to increase over last year, while his overall total of looks may not change or could even decrease slightly (133 last year). Improved efficiency from the designs, the quarterback’s decisions, and a dangerous play-action passing offense will help OBJ return to fantasy glory.
WR Adam Thielen | Minnesota Vikings | ADP: 3:06
After a pair of stellar fantasy football seasons by most any standard, Thielen struggled to overcome a hamstring injury in 2019 and was relegated to playing only 10 games, limited in a few. He averaged just 11.4 points per contest in PPR, which was his low since coming onto the fantasy scene in 2016. He still displayed game-breaking ability in couple of his healthy games and scored six times in five of the outings, but inconsistency ravaged his fantasy returns, unlike in 2018.
Minnesota lost offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to Cleveland Brows as their new head coach, paving a return to coaching for Gary Kubiak. The veteran play-caller will run an offense that is awfully similar to Stefanski’s West Coast derivative. Thielen’s top partner in the passing game, Stefon Diggs, was dealt to the Buffalo Bills and replaced by a first-round rookie. This works in Thielen’s favor for target share but also likely means he’ll see more doubles than ever. Nevertheless, trust in his connection with Kirk Cousins, a dangerous play-action passing game, and Thielen remaining healthy to create another WR1 campaign.
WR T.Y. Hilton | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 5:02
In 2019, Hilton not only had to deal with losing his BFF in Andrew Luck to premature retirement, but a nagging calf injury cost him five games and a quad strain forced him to sit another. In 10 games, he averaged only 12.5 PPR points, and the speedy veteran failed to catch more than 45 balls for the first time in his career. No stranger to injuries, Hilton has missed time in consecutive seasons, and 50 percent of his eight seasons haven’t seen him play 16 games.
The outlook for 2020 is much better. The calf injury is no longer an issue, and Jacoby Brissett has been replaced by Philip Rivers. In the past two drafts, the Colts have spent second-rounders on a pair of receivers to help alleviate some pressure on the 30-year-old Hilton. Indianapolis may opt for more running in 2020 with Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor behind arguably football’s best line, and Hilton actually can benefit from a convincing play-action system. Despite undeniable overall health concerns, Hilton is a WR2 with big-play ability in a contract year.
TE Eric Ebron | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 13:11
As mentioned in the Conner writeup above, the return of Roethlisberger is crucial. Ebron still is an injury liability, and the idea he will be a weekly starter probably should be scrapped from the get-go. In 2018, during his breakout season, Ebron’s fantasy football worth was fueled by his nose for the end zone. Not only was he a TD machine, Ebron finished that season sixth in receptions and fifth in yardage generated by a tight end. He also didn’t have to contend with Jack Doyle, and Luck was his quarterback.
In 2020, provided Big Ben stays healthy, the situation is similar in several ways. We have waited to see veteran tight end Vance McDonald emerge for several years, and he, too, is injury-prone. The Steelers have a pass-leaning approach, and the best way for Ebron to find fantasy utility is as a weapon in the red zone once again. Look for the attention paid to Conner and Smith-Schuster as a benefit for Ebron seeing mostly one-on-one coverage. That said, he comes with tremendous risk and is best drafted in a rotational situation.
Which players are on the cusp of something big heading into the 2020 season?
Several of these players could cross over into the realm of being sleepers. For the most part, each name has somewhat established himself as an up-and-coming fantasy football commodity. They’re now on the verge of going big.
(Ron Chenoy, USA TODAY Sports)
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals | ADP: 5:02
A second year in this wide-open passing system that added one of the top receivers in the game can only bode well for the continued development of Murray. He was an inconsistent No. 1 fantasy quarterback as a rookie, so any sense of a breakout will come in the way of being reliable from week to week. He finished the year as QB7 in fantasy points but was only No. 13 in per-game scoring. The top takeaway from watching Murray last year: The game isn’t “too big” for him at the professional level.
Having an improved offensive line will help, as well. Just two quarterbacks hit the dirt more than Murray in 2019. Some of that was his fault for holding the ball too long or trying to make plays with his legs. Don’t expect a massive upgrade from the line, which will mostly require continuity to help, and staying healthy is important, of course. At any rate, Murray has all of the tools to be a top-five fantasy passer in weekly points generated, even if he takes a few lumps along the way.
Drew Lock | Denver Broncos | ADP: 11:03
The second-year quarterback saw general manager John Elway go all in on upgrading the offensive weaponry for Lock. The Broncos spent two early picks on wide receivers in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, who’ll play out of the slot. Jeudy is among the top NFL-ready rookie receivers in recent years. Quite possibly the most important addition is found in the backfield, where the signing of Melvin Gordon will help create what could prove to be a top-five rushing attack.
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The other important area of improvement: Graham Glasgow was signed in free agency to play guard, but he also can go at center, and is paired with 2019 rookie stud guard Dalton Risner. The Broncos landed a nice value on Lloyd Cushenberry III to start a center as a third-rounder. Lock may not jump into the top tier of fantasy assets among quarterbacks in Year 2, but the weapons are in place for him to rely on his lively arm and make plays. Expect inconsistently strong QB1 production spattered among a few contests of being a No. 2-level game manager when the matchup calls for heavy ground utilization.
Running backs
(Bill Streicher, USA TODAY Sports)
Miles Sanders | Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 2:03
Sharing touches as a rookie, Sanders managed to finish as the No. 15 PPR back in 16 games. His per-outing average of 13.7 fantasy points ranked 21st among RBs with at least 10 appearances last year. The Eagles should (heavy emphasis on should) be healthy at receiver entering the year, which will keep the box free of extra defenders more than last year. The Penn State product ran 179 times for only three touchdowns a year ago, ceding six scores to Jordan Howard. Sanders logged 50 receptions and another trio of TDs. Traditionally, receiving scores are volatile year over year, but there’s little reason Sanders cannot score close to 10 rushing touchdowns.
The true breakout aspect here will come via touchdowns and a reasonable increase in handles. Combining his 2019 carries with Howard’s from last year — not an ideal baseline, but the point is to show there’s considerable growth potential in workload — Sanders would tally 298 attempts. It will be somewhat surprising to see him rush that many times, but if it were to happen, it would tie for the third-most carries in 2019 (Nick Chubb). Consider the 250-260 range to be more than reasonable. He’ll see somewhere in the neighborhood of 240 carries as a floor, and that alone pushes him into solid RB1 status.
Devin Singletary | Buffalo Bills | ADP: 3:11
Efficiency is the name of his game. In 2019, the rookie toted the rock 151 times for 775 yards in 12 games, averaging 5.1 per carry. He scored only three times on the ground but added a pair via the passing game on his 29 grabs. Singletary was sluggish to get involved in his first six appearances, receiving more than eight carries in one of those contests. He had no fewer than 13 carries in the last seven games.
Frank Gore is gone, and third-round pick Zack Moss will have to get acclimated as a rookie in an unprecedented offseason. There is obvious concern Singletary could lose considerable work to Moss, particularly around the end zone; gamers should be more worried about QB Josh Allen’s rushing prowess. Durability also could be an issue after Singletary missed three games due to injury (fourth in Week 17 for playoff rest). Every running back comes with pitfall potential, so trust in an improved passing game helping make an already explosive back that much better. He’s a strong RB2 with low-tier No. 1 upside.
Raheem Mostert | San Francisco 49ers | ADP: 4:08
The trade of Matt Breida to the Miami Dolphins opened the door to a much larger share of the touches for Mostert. Running back Tevin Coleman remains in the mix, and there’s probably going to be weeks where gamers are playing the wrong guy. Keep that in mind if weekly consistency is extra important via performance bonuses in your league settings. Mostert showed he belonged last year with 137 carries for 772 yards and eight rushing TDs, averaging a hearty 5.6 yards per attempt in this zone-blocking system. He went on to chip in another two TDs on only 14 receptions, racking up 180 yards along the way. Mostert closed out 2019 scoring 80 percent of his touchdowns in the final nine contests (including playoffs), and he erupted on the Green Bay Packers in the conference championship for 220 yards and four scores.
With Breida out of the picture (Coleman aside), Jeff Wilson Jr., and veteran Jerick McKinnon (remember him?) round out the top of the depth chart. McKinnon still isn’t close to being 100 percent from a knee injury suffered two years ago. San Francisco lives and dies by the ground game, and the stout defense affords this style of play to continue. For as much as Kyle Shanahan likes Coleman, it’s evident Mostert is the more explosive option. The opportunity to touch the ball around 225-250 times is present, and Mostert may actually come at a bargain in more casual leagues.
(Kyle Terada, USA TODAY Sports)
Wide receivers
Deebo Samuel | San Francisco 49ers | ADP: 5:07
Just how much confidence can fantasy owners have that first-round rookie Brandon Aiyuk will be able to get up to speed during this offseason? How much confidence can we have in Jalen Hurd taking a massive step forward after effectively redshirting as a rookie in 2019? After George Kittle, there really isn’t a receiving option in this offense anyone should be concerned with cutting into Samuel’s numbers. He ran hot and cold as a rookie, finishing the year without a receiving touchdown in the final seven games (including playoffs). Samuel managed to still be relevant in PPR in all but a pair of those outings thanks to a combination of volume and rushing work (two scores).
Samuel’s game isn’t going to give fantasy owners too many explosive performances in standard scoring by his nature of being more of a glorified possession receiver (think Anquan Boldin). He’s still dynamic enough, though, and even in this pass-heavy offense, his target count of 81 from last year should increase by 50 percent or so. PPR gamers witnessed New York Jets WR Jamison Crowder finish 16th in scoring all while failing to top 833 yards on his 122 looks. The crafty Samuel is a far more versatile player and should be in for a final line that pushes him into the top 10 of his positional mates in reception-rewarding scoring formats.
Darius Slayton | New York Giants | ADP: 8:05
Slayton played in one of the more pass-friendly situations last year. He had a defense that struggled to contain opponents and heled lead to more passing … Saquon Barkley’s injury created a need for an increase in aerial work … Golden Tate’s suspension and injury … Sterling Shepard’s concussion spree … Evan Engram’s inevitable injury … Corey Coleman being lost for the year … Pat Shurmur’s base three-wide designs … All of that helped create a 48-740-8 line for the rookie wideout who entered the year buried on the depth chart.
Looking ahead, despite an offensive system change in an offseason without on-field activities as usually scheduled, the Giants once again offer an intriguing situation for Slayton. Quarterback Daniel Jones stands to mature in his second season, and a healthy Barkley will keep defenses guessing. The reality is Tate enters his age-32 season, and Shepard is one concussion away from possibly having to retire. Engram remains brittle, and Coleman isn’t a threat after the showing from Slayton. Jason Garrett comes over as the play-caller and also brings a three-wide base that has proven capable of sustaining multiple WRs. With Tate in the twilight of his career, and Shepard merely a sidekick, the 4.39-second Slayton easily could be the featured guy and produce Amari Cooper-like numbers. The 2019 WR37 is well-positioned to flirt with No. 2 status in 2020.
Mecole Hardman | Kansas City Chiefs | ADP: 10:07
Despite catching only 26 balls a year ago as a rookie, Hardman managed to find the end zone six times. The Chiefs retained Sammy Watkins and brought back Demarcus Robinson, which should give some pause, but neither player has the makings of being something special, unlike Hardman. Generally speaking, talent wins out more often than not, and this second-year receiver has it in spades. The Chiefs could make it difficult for Hardman to be consistently involved, though, which is a legitimate concern. Get him the ball anywhere in the range of 80-100 targets and we’ll see fireworks.
There are plenty of intriguing WR fliers, and Hardman will draw early attention in deeper leagues or from more competitive circles, so understand he could enter overvalued territory in those situations. While banking on an injury isn’t wise, it obviously is a way to increased playing time. So is simply being better than his competition, which is what is more likely to lead him to an uptick in work. WR3 standing is a reasonable expectation after his WR62 debut season.
(Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports)
Tight ends
Noah Fant | Denver Broncos | ADP: 11.06
The 2019 first-round pick is likely to be a fantasy darling for many owners who tend to wait on the position. In 2020, there’s a respectable crop of tight ends we can consider to be “safe” bets for starter production. Fant is on the cusp of entering the conversation as a midrange No. 1 even without a marked improvement.
The offense turns to Pat Shurmur, whose system definitely caters to the position. Evan Engram was on a torrid pace before getting hurt in 2020 for the Giants when Shurmur was in charge. Denver will feature second-year quarterback Drew Lock as their starter, and he more than acquitted himself as a rookie last year. While Lock didn’t focus too much on Fant in their five games together, we saw some of Fant’s elite speed mesh with Lock’s stellar arm to create 28-yards-per-catch averages in two of those matchups. Denver drastically infused talent in the offseason to bolster the passing game, and Fant should benefit as a low-volume, high-efficiency weapon.
Blake Jarwin | Dallas Cowboys | ADP: 14:08
In 2019, the Cowboys managed to find 83 targets for Jason Witten and another 41 for Jarwin as his backup in an offense littered with receiving talent. Witten is now a Las Vegas Raider, and WR Randall Cobb is in Houston. A rookie first-rounder in CeeDee Lamb was chosen as arguably the most talented wideout in the draft, but Jarwin is a veteran who already knows the system and is now the starter. Only nine tight ends were targeted more than Witten last season, suggesting if even half of those looks went to Jarwin in 2020, coupled with the 41 he saw as a reserve, we’re right at that 10th-place mark again, in a vacuum, anyway.
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Mike McCarthy may be the new head coach in Dallas, yet the 2019 coordinator, Kellen Moore, returns to call the plays. Being an offensive-minded coach, it’s only natural we’ll see some of McCarthy’s system tendencies bleed into the calls. Nevertheless, it isn’t a bad thing. His Packers didn’t really have a bona fide fantasy tight end, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying; Jermichael Finley appeared destined for stardom before suffering a career-ending spinal cord injury. Jarwin has the chops to get it done, although the major concern will be the consistency of his weekly involvement. He’s probably a better target in best-ball leagues where gamers don’t set a lineup but rather field one based on their week’s top positional performers. That is, unless, you’re supremely confident playing the matchups.
Make sure you know which player pitfalls to avoid in 2020 fantasy football drafts.
It’s rare that a normally selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some guys just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters. Fantasy football gamers also need to be aware of players who are going much earlier than warranted.
This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches.
(Derick E. Hingle, USA TODAY Sports)
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz | Philadelphia Eagles | Overvalued | ADP: 8:12
How much confidence can even the most ardent supporters of Wentz have in his ability to stay on the field? How about the durability of his receiving corps? There’s little chance the entire cast of wideouts will suffer through as many injuries as last year, but Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson have been brittle their entire careers. Rookie WR Jalen Reagor is rather raw and may not have any sense of a conventional offseason program this year. Then there’s the concern of Andre Dillard at left tackle after his disastrous rookie year. At Wentz’s best, he has been a midrange QB1, which is entirely possible if all goes smoothly, but trusting him as a starter is going out on a thin limb. Should he be your starter, back up Wentz with a bona fide QB1 — a move that ties up two picks for what exactly?
Daniel Jones | New York Giants | Bust factor | ADP: 11:02
It wouldn’t be fair to hold an ankle sprain against Jones, but it is also imprudent to outright dismiss the idea that he could be at least an elevated injury risk. The term “bust factor” is applicable. This isn’t to say Jones will fall flat on his face, but it’s the Giants’ offseason system changes could cause him to take a step backward. In 2019, he exceeded expectations. Throwing out his four pass attempts from Week 1, Jones produced 145 fantasy points in his four best games and 141 points in his eight other appearances. Only one of those contests resulted in a total of more than 20 fantasy points, and he failed to account for multiple touchdowns in seven of those eight games. Learning a new offense on the fly is more challenging than ever, due to the virus eliminating on-field practices. Despite erratic results likely in the cards again, Jones’ year-end results may creep into the QB1 territory; inconsistency is a killer in weekly head-to-head formats.
Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Overvalued | ADP: 7:03
Allen finished as QB9 in his second pro season, and the addition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs has many a fantasy gamers drooling at the idea of what could be in 2020. A closer look at Allen’s 2019 season shows a quarterback who hasn’t thrown for more than 266 yards in any game of his pro career, and his ’19 completion percentage was still only 58.8 percent. On a per-game basis, he didn’t even improve upon his rookie season in terms of fantasy points generated (since he played only a few snaps in Week 17, his playoff game was substituted). In nine of his regular-season starts, Allen failed to throw for multiple touchdowns, and two of those outings resulted in goose eggs. He falls to No. 18 when rushing scores are removed for all quarterbacks — by far the biggest drop from any QB in the top 12. Over the last 10 seasons, only Cam Newton ran for more scores in a single year than Allen’s nine, and the last time Cam led the NFL in QB rushing scores, he followed it up with 50 percent fewer the next year. Long story short, unless Allen becomes considerably better throwing the ball, he’s going to remain overly reliant on a volatile statistic.
In 11 games last year before his explosive conclusion, Drake ran for 454 yards and a lone score. He registered 123.9 PPR points. In the Weeks of 15-17, Drake shredded two of the worst defenses against the run and beat up on a Seattle unit that finished in the middle of the pack. Those trio of contests resulted in 363 rushing yards and seven scores, good for 90.3 fantasy points and representing 42 percent of his entire season’s output. First of all, that pace isn’t sustainable. Secondly, the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins means this offense is going to continue to air it out and at an even higher rate. Part of the reason why Drake saw so much work down the stretch was due to the passing game’s struggles. In Year 2 of this system, the training wheels will come off for Kyler Murray — whose legs are a threat to Drake. Don’t buy the hype of the former Dolphin as a No. 1 running back.
David Montgomery | Chicago Bears | Bust factor | ADP: 4:07
Montgomery was a fantasy draft darling last summer, and his weekly inconsistency was disappointing. Not enough has changed in his favor to suggest the second-year back will automatically turn it around. He loses third-down work to Tarik Cohen, and the overall passing game stands to see improvement. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky just isn’t good enough to keep defenders out of the box, and neither is backup Nick Foles. Montgomery ran for more than 86 yards only twice, and one of them came in Week 17. Ten of his appearances found him averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per carry, including eight with an average of 3.0 yards or below. The offensive line is a major concern and wasn’t addressed in the offseason but for a pair of seventh-round picks. Last year’s RB24 in PPR was a lineup killer most of the season and benefited from a rather pedestrian year by the position, as well as a boost from four efforts of at least 15 fantasy points (nine single-digit games).
Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Overvalued | ADP: 5:03
Taylor’s ADP is inflated early on due to a lack of separation in the charts from dynasty leagues still going after the draft. Don’t misconstrue his inclusion in this list as anything negative about Taylor’s talents. He’s the best back on this roster. That said, he’s also a rookie coming into a fairly complex NFL offense without rookie minicamp, OTAs, and possibly a traditional training camp. The Colts have a capable back in Marlon Mack, whose upside was capped last year by the limitations of Jacoby Brissett. Moving to Philip Rivers should help immensely in keeping defenses from stacking the box. In the early going, Taylor could struggle to see the field enough to matter on a weekly basis, and he’s unlikely to see third-down reps with Nyheim Hines having that role locked down. Mack is injury-prone, so there’s always the chance Taylor finds a major role via this route, but drafting him as anything more than an RB4 is taking a leap of faith that could cost gamers dearly.
One of the streakiest players at his position, Diggs runs hot and cold like few others. Last year, he showed his mouthy side when the ball wasn’t coming his way as much as he wanted — something we could witness again due to limitations in the system and from his developing QB. It’s hard enough changing teams, but doing so in the midst of a pandemic is unprecedented. It begs the question about whether Diggs will struggle to build chemistry with his new quarterback, one whose career high in passing yards through two seasons is a laughable 266 yards. Josh Allen has a monster arm but is still trying to put it together as a quarterback — and we haven’t really seen enough maturation from him through two seasons to consider a big jump forward as being a certainty. Diggs is talented enough to inconsistently make his way to WR2 status by year’s end, but that roller coaster may make even seasoned gamers dizzy by the end of it all.
A.J. Green | Cincinnati Bengals | Overvalued | ADP: 5:11
A borderline sixth-round pick for receiver who didn’t even play last year, is entering his age-32 season, and has a rookie quarterback trying to navigate a pandemic? No thanks. Green played in only nine games in 2018, and he missed six games in 2016. It would be one thing if Green was recovering from an upper-body injury, but a busted wheel on a receiver north of 30 is scary. Eleven different lower-body injuries have put him on an injury report since Week 5 of 2012. There’s not enough upside in his game to warrant a draft placement over some of the younger, more explosive weapons currently going behind him in ADP results.
In 2019, Anderson caught two touchdowns in his first nine games and then went on the upswing, logging four scores in his next six games. He has been consistently streaky in the last three years, going stretches of at least five games in both 2017 and ’18 without finding the end zone. He finished fast in the last two years, but it was the opposite in ’17, and now he joins a Carolina offense that has so many weapons around him but a sketchy quarterback situation. Teddy Bridgewater is merely a game manager, as we saw last year in New Orleans’ powerhouse offense. The Panthers’ newest receiving asset is a downfield threat but with that comes erratic production. Despite being the No. 1 receiver in New York the last three seasons, Anderson has only two total games with more than seven catches and 24 contests with three or fewer receptions. Since “bust” is relative to expectations, at a minimum, take this as a warning to understand what you’re getting in return.
N’Keal Harry | New England Patriots | Bust factor | ADP: 14:10
The 2019 first-round pick’s season started off on the wrong foot — err, ankle — after a sprain derailed his preseason and cost him nine games. With a partial first season now under his belt, Harry faces more adversity after Tom Brady defected for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback questions abound, it’s a safe bet the Pats will rely heavily on the ground game. Given a first-place schedule, a tremendous degree of uncertainty at quarterback, and a likely low-volume aerial attack, just how much can one reasonably expect from Harry? He’s not being drafted as more than a late-round gamble, thankfully, so most gamers already get it.
(Cary Edmondson, USA TODAY Sports)
Tight ends
Evan Engram | New York Giants | Overvalued | ADP: 6:12
Dynamic when on the field, it’s tough to get on board with drafting Engram as a TE1 at this point. He’s living off of a huge rookie season and has played progressively fewer games since his 2017 breakout year. The Giants also have a new coaching staff, and while offensive coordinator Jason Garrett’s system has been favorable for the position before, Engram still has to learn it during this wonky offseason. Then there’s the issue of the Giants having so many other outlets for Daniel Jones, ranging from Saquon Barkley grabbing passes from the backfield to a trio of capable receivers in Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. Engram currently is being drafted ahead of Hunter Henry, Jared Cook and Austin Hooper — all at least as risky with as much or more to like. Unless you’re rostering Engram at a cheap price and still able to bolster tight end depth without sacrificing significantly elsewhere, he’s better left to be a headache for someone else.
Rob Gronkowski | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Bust factor | ADP: 6:03
This one really could go either way. Gronk took off a year and said he feels great. He also lost a ton of a weight in his season away, and Gronkowski never was a stranger to the injury bug in New England. The Buccaneers have so many weapons on any given play, and the Bruce Arians system hasn’t been the friendliest to tight ends throughout the years. That said, if Gronk is Gronk, and Tom Brady is Tom Brady, gamers are going to enjoy the ride … just understand how much risk you’re assuming along the way. These two may not pick up where they left off.
Which fantasy football sleepers and undervalued players should you target in 2020?
The official list of sleepers and busts will come from the fingertips of David Dorey later this summer, but my personal favorites are already here to tide you over. In this release, sleepers, deep sleepers (late fliers) and undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts.
Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. “N/A” represents not enough selections to warrant inclusion in the ADP charts.
We saw plenty of flashes from Minshew as a rookie in 2019, finishing the year with eight games of at least 20 fantasy points, including a high-water mark of 30.9. The Jaguars’ offensive line should be improved this season, and the backfield remains stable, although unspectacular, which plays into Minshew’s favor. At receiver, the Jags return all three starters from last year, featuring third-year wideout DJ Chark, who is flirting with WR1 status if his trajectory holds up. The draft brought in rookie do-all weapon Laviska Shenault Jr., and veteran pass-catching tight end Tyler Eifert is now in the mix. Don’t forget third-down weapon Chris Thompson comes over from Washington with new coordinator Jay Gruden.
There should always be some concern with a new system installation, and even more so when a pandemic is impacting the offseason, but Minshew showed last year he has no issue picking up a system on the fly. He’s a No. 2 fantasy passer with starting utility when the matchup is right.
Matthew Stafford | Detroit Lions | Undervalued | ADP: 10:03
In 2019, before Stafford suffered a season-ending back injury that is no longer an issue, he was on pace for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. We’ve seen him do it before, so this wasn’t totally out of left field. OC Darrell Bevell has a reputation for being a run-first play-caller, but it’s somewhat skewed since he had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime on his teams. Detroit’s running game has to be better this year, which means we’re unlikely to see 5k from Stafford, but he’s quite efficient and has a supporting cast to do some damage.
The value of a proven veteran entering Year 2 in an offense while so many other quarterbacks will be scrambling to play catch-up once on-field activities resume cannot go underappreciated. In 2020 drafts, waiting on your quarterback will pay off, and landing this Lion is a wise investment. He’s a fringe QB1 but requires a competent counterpart on draft day.
Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | Undervalued | ADP: 13:01
Of quarterbacks to start at least 10 times last year, Tannehill rated as the No. 10 fantasy quarterback on a per-game basis. He threw 22 touchdowns against only six picks, and didn’t toss an INT in seven of his appearances. Over the final six regular-season games, he really found his groove and was good for at least 26.7 fantasy points in four of those outings.
People may let the playoffs stick in their mind where Tannehill wasn’t asked to throw the ball. It’s fair, since the offense runs through Derrick Henry. The receiving corps should be better with A.J. Brown ready to ascend in Year 2, Corey Davis playing for a contract in 2021, and Adam Humphries coming back healthy. Tannehill won’t lose you games, which may be extra important in a season with a limited offseason program ahead. Trust him as a matchup-play QB2.
Philip Rivers | Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: 13:11
It’s easy to feel nervous about rostering an average-armed, 38-year-old quarterback whose mobility never has been his strong suit. Sometimes we have to defy conventional logic and focus on intangibles. Rivers is reunited with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni in Indy, taking snaps behind what is arguably the best line in football.
The weaponry is young after wideout T.Y. Hilton, who is coming off of an injury-marred campaign. However, veteran tight end Jack Doyle isn’t fighting rehab or losing touches to Eric Ebron. The backfield is better than it has been in years, and Rivers will be able to rely on play-action passing. The Colts have two promising former second-round picks in wide receivers Michaokel Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell to complement each other in ideal ways. Rivers is not a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but there will be weeks he plays like it, and gamers need to take advantage of it with rotational QB play at a cheap price.
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Running backs
Justin Jackson | Los Angeles Chargers | Sleeper | ADP: 12:11
Entering Year 3, Jackson has a microscopic sample size as the No. 3 back behind Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon. The latter is gone, and the former can’t be expected to do it alone. Jackson’s body of work is 79 attempts for 406 yards (5.1 YPC) and a pair of scores. He isn’t much of a receiver — an area we’re likely to see more of Ekeler. Fourth-rounder Joshua Kelley will compete for time, but it’s safe to believe the rookie curve will be tougher this offseason.
Jackson may battle inconsistency at times, and the backfield is probably going to be the focus of extra defensive scrutiny if the passing game isn’t up to par after the departure of Philip Rivers. There’s reason to believe we won’t see No. 6 overall pick Justin Herbert play meaningful snaps with Tyrod Taylor slated to open as the starting quarterback. Jackson runs tougher than his 5-foot-11, 193-pound frame suggests; he could be the preferred choice near the stripe. The long and short of it is gamers are snoozing on the third-year back, and he’s a capable RB3, especially in leagues that run deeper than average.
Matt Breida | Miami Dolphins | Undervalued | ADP: 8:06
The explosive runner was dealt from the San Francisco 49ers to the Dolphins during the draft and will form a one-two punch with the more powerful Jordan Howard. First and foremost, injuries are a concern with Breida. He battled an ankle sprain on more than one occasion in the past two seasons, yet he still gutted it out and played a few times when it looked grim in the days leading up to kickoff. When healthy, he is a low-volume, high-output weapon with the ability to contribute in the passing game.
Breida began the year strong for San Fran in 2019, logging at least 14 touches in the first four games. He scored twice, racked up two 100-yard games and then struggled to be relevant after suffering a Week 9 ankle sprain during a game in which he was returning to form after a two-week lull. The logjam in the 49ers’ backfield led to him being sent to Miami. Chan Gailey is the new OC in South Beach, and he has shown capable of producing a variety of successful offensive systems. There will be a lot of inconsistency from the entire Miami offense, but Breida’s efficiency gives him a chance to exceed expectations. He’s a value buy as a No. 3 back in PPR setups.
In the 2020 draft, Tennessee arguably reached for the Appalachian State running back when it snagged Evans in Round 3. None of that matters now, because opportunity is all gamers should care about when evaluating the situation. Evans is an obvious contrast from the bruising rushing champ, and there’s little reason to expect the Titans to get away from riding Derrick Henry as the formula to their success.
Evans, though, could see more work as a spell or third-down option than we witnessed from Dion Lewis last year. The veteran touched the ball only 54 times on the ground and 25 through the air. Evans realistically could see numbers to the inverse of that stat line, touching the ball via in more passes than carries. He gets the label of “deep sleeper” primarily because there’s some guesswork at play when you don’t know how a small-school back will be ready for the pros in an abbreviated offseason. All bets are off, though, if the Titans opt to bring in one of the lingering veteran free agents.
Tony Pollard | Dallas Cowboys | Undervalued | ADP: 11:03
There’s no reason anyone who takes Ezekiel Elliott should come away from their draft without Pollard in tow — unless you, the speculative buyer, swoops in first. Being a handcuff aside, there’s some one-off utility for Pollard being a standalone back some weeks. He can do it all and is efficient, which is favorable for a fringe lineup gamble. The Cowboys have a boatload of cash invested into Zeke, and while this shouldn’t be taken to the extreme, it’s not outlandish to think the coaching staff could look to lessen his workload. No back has handled it more in the last two years than Elliott’s 736 touches (Christian McCaffrey is next at 729).
Pollard amassed 562 yards on 101 touches last year, and he scored three times. Half of his production came in two games that were blowouts in Dallas’ favor — a reality that makes playing him particularly treacherous. Simply put, if Elliott were to go down with a significant injury, fantasy owners have an immediate RB1 on their hands. Pollard is worth a slight reach if you’re thin at the position.
Eno Benjamin | Arizona Cardinals | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
Total flier material here … in fact, Benjamin is barely draftable in deep leagues. If we play the “what if” game, he’s worthy of an inclusion in the event one of the catalysts were to come true. Those possible situations being: 1) Kenyan Drake’s brief but impressive run last year turns out to be a fluke 2) Drake gets hurt with a larger workload 3) Backup Chase Edmonds isn’t durable enough for even limited reps … any one of those situations could put Benjamin, a seventh-round rookie, into position to contribute. That said, all of those scenarios are far closer to being food for thought than anything to take to the bank. Benjamin is a late-round roll of the dice for those looking to take a chance.
(Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY Sports)
Wide receivers
Diontae Johnson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Sleeper | ADP: 9:08
Few players are as intriguing as the second-year receiver. Ben Roethlisberger is throwing again after elbow surgery and will bring a much needed boost to the entire offense. Johnson offers a blend of speed and athleticism that was on display as a rookie, even through the quarterback carousel after Big Ben bit the dust. WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington help balance out the defensive attention, and the addition of tight end Eric Ebron adds another low-volume target to keep defenders on their toes while not posing a massive threat to Johnson’s target share.
Pittsburgh spent a 2019 third-round pick on Johnson, and the Toledo product didn’t disappoint. The offensive system remains the same, translating to less concern for developmental stalling that other blossoming receivers may encounter due to the coronavirus outbreak. Johnson drew no fewer than seven targets in each of the last four games of 2019, snaring four or more balls in every contest, and scoring twice along the way. He improved as the year went on and didn’t find the game to be too much for him as a rook. In some ways, his upside exceeds that of Smith-Schuster as the potential WR1 of this passing game. Expect his draft stock to climb as we get closer to draft season, though. You’re looking at a rock-solid No. 2 fantasy receiver.
According to ADP data, 70 receivers are going before Renfrow right now in PPR drafts. SEVENTY. He finished WR60 as a rookie in 13 games last year after missing time with a broken rib that punctured a lung. … I stubbed my toe once and was out of commission for an entire weekend. Oh, and when he came back to the field in Week 16, the former Clemson hero posted back-to-back 100-yard games with a score in each, landing seven and six passes, respectively, on 18 targets. That’s 35 percent of his season-long yardage in two contests, and his average yards per reception went from 11 to 16.1. Even though it was a small sample size, Renfrow was trending in the right direction in the month leading up to the injury. He saw his per-game averages for targets, catches and yardage all increase from the first eight weeks of the year.
Maturation on the field was bound to happen for such a dedicated, heady player. Clutch hands, precision route skills, the confidence of his quarterback, a new receiver with speed to burn in Henry Ruggs … short of another serious injury, Renfrow is positioned well to make a run at No. 2 receiver territory in his second year.
Jamison Crowder | New York Jets | Undervalued | ADP: 10:11
Does anyone really believe rookie Denzel Mims will be the No. 1 target for Sam Darnold following an offseason with no semblance of training camp in sight, especially coming out of Baylor’s system? How about putting faith in journeyman Breshad Perriman finally living up to his potential as a former first-round pick after a handful of productive (and timely) fantasy games as a Buccaneer? If Perriman was so ready to ascend, why didn’t Tampa make an earnest effort to re-sign him? It’s not like the Jets splurged, even if it was still more than warranted ($8M) based on past production.
The point of all of that is the team’s No. 1 receiver is not coming off of the board until nearly the 11th round in PPR leagues. That is insane. Crowder, aside from an injury-shortened season in Washington, has been quite productive out of the slot for gamers in reception-rewarding formats. New York threw to him 122 times last year, and the team actually regressed in the short term at WR in the meantime. Only 15 wideouts saw more balls come their way in ’19 … Chris Godwin had fewer looks and people are drafting him as a WR1. At any rate, Crowder finished WR26 in PPR without topping 900 yards. He’s being drafted as WR47. Even if he regresses slightly in targets, we’re still looking at a significant value buy.
Josh Reynolds | Los Angeles Rams | Sleeper | ADP: N/A
The Rams featured a base three-receiver set a league-high 80 percent of the time in 2019 and a whopping 95 percent of the snaps in 2018. We’ve seen this offense generate three productive fantasy wideouts a number of times when injuries weren’t derailing Sean McVay’s plans, and now Brandin Cooks is a Houston Texan to pave the way for Reynolds to get his shot. Rookie receiver Van Jefferson will have a say in the matter, but so will no offseason activities for the youngster.
In 2019, Reynolds saw his work increase with Cooks on the shelf for two games and parts of others. It didn’t amount to huge stats for Reynolds, yet he still was relevant (19 targets, nine catches, 177 yards, one TD) as a flex consideration. Cooks was targeted 72 times, down from 117 the prior year when the offense was clicking. No Todd Gurley in the backfield could mean more passing, and it also opens up a few looks per game, in theory. Should Reynolds see somewhere in between those marks Cooks tallied, we’re looking at around 95 balls coming his way — good for WR3 numbers on the utilization front. Obviously looks alone don’t equate to points, so an even-keeled view is a flex option as the floor of his upside.
Parris Campbell | Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: N/A
It’s understandable why fantasy owner have been standoffish toward Campbell in the early going of drafting. He was an utter disappointment as a rookie and barely was able to get onto the field. In seven games, the 2019 second-rounder managed a paltry 18 catches for 127 yards and a score, averaging only 7.1 yards per snag. He has speed for days and will have a second offseason to fully digest the playbook. Staying off of the trainer’s table is a must, however.
Campbell doesn’t come without risk, but the upside outweighs it with a late-round selection in drafts. He’s going to be at least in competition for the No. 2 looks behind T.Y. Hilton in an offense that will go from Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer to Philip Rivers under center. Even at his advanced age (38), Rivers is an upgrade. While Indy added a receiver in Round 2 this year, as well, there’s a steeper learning curve in the pandemic timeline for a rookie. Besides, Michael Pittman Jr. and Campbell are hardly the same style of player. The Ohio State product is not being drafted, on average, in the top 70 receivers, so taking a late-round gamble on him isn’t going to crater your season. Perhaps he can finally figure out how to put all of that speed to good use.
Adam Humphries | Tennessee Titans | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
Remember him? In 2018, Humphries turned in a 76-catch season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and managed to find the end zone five times. Toss in 816 yards and all three stats were career bests. He translated that into a respectable payday with the Titans but never really looked comfortable in the offense. In Week 14, he suffered a high-ankle sprain and missed the rest of the regular season. In his second year with the Titans, Humphries should see the offense around him open up a bit. A.J. Brown will take a step forward and looks destined for WR1 status. The guy once presumed to be that in Corey Davis is likely out after 2020, so there’s no real incentive to force the ball his way.
Humphries played nearly 79 percent of his snaps from the slot last year, and the passing game ran at least three-wide sets a respectable 67 percent of the time, with 55 percent coming in a base three-receiver formation (seventh lowest). As second-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith tweaks his playbook after a season of learning the ropes, there’s room for growth in this area more than any other. Much like with the aforementioned Parris Campbell, there’s no reason to get overly excited about Humphries, but he’s more likely to see an uptick in work than remain stale or regress. Gamers could do much worse on a late-round flier.
Kelvin Harmon | Washington Redskins | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
In 2019, as a rookie, Harmon was thrown at 44 times, resulting in 30 grabs for 365 yards. He did not visit the end zone. After a nearly radio silent start to his pro career through the first nine weeks, Harmon’s role increased considerably. Of those 44 looks, 31 came in the final seven games. There was a wide array of problems with the Redskins in 2019, from quarterback to offensive line to coaching, so seeing any encouraging signs from a rookie receiver shouldn’t go unnoticed.
Fast-forwarding to 2020, Ron Rivera is the head coach. Scott Turner is the OC. We presume Dwayne Haskins will open as the starting quarterback, although Kyle Allen (and maybe Cam Newton?) will have something to say about it. Harmon comes with uncertainty after trending in the right direction to close out his rookie campaign, hence the “deep sleeper” designation. He’s really an ideal target for a late flier in 2020 best-ball formats — leagues in which owners don’t set weekly lineups and their highest performers at each position instead comprise the starting group. Despite Washington investing in one-and-a-half rookie receivers (Antonio Gibson should mostly play RB) in the first four rounds of this year’s draft, it’s a pair of rookies from 2019’s selection process who stand to have the best chance of leading this receiving corps in fantasy points.
Jalen Hurd | San Francisco 49ers | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
Several factors may stand in the way of Hurd becoming a regular fantasy contributor in 2020: 1) San Fran spent a first-round pick on WR Brandon Aiyuk 2) Deebo Samuel has breakout star written all over him 3) George Kittle is basically a WR1/WR2 any given week 4) This offense loves to pound the rock. Conversely, Aiyuk has to grow and learn a complex system without an offseason program at this time. Samuel needs some help. Kittle has injury history. Teams cannot run every down … hardly nuanced stuff that makes a monumental difference for fantasy success.
Hurd has almost no competition to speak of for the slot receiver spot, which is a hybrid role in this system. The hope here — make no mistake, there will be luck needed — the second-year receiver carves out a role as the go-to weapon in the red zone. He stands 6-foot-4, 228 pounds, bringing the most size of any 49ers receiver in contention of seeing action. In a less generous understanding of the situation, Hurd will require the offense to either run substantially more three-wide sets (highly unlikely) or overtake a first-round pick (also dubious). Don’t draft him in conventional leagues, but Hurd has best-ball potential in the last round or two, and he’s also a “why not?” gamble in the last round of leagues that warrant more than six receivers on a team.
(Rich Barnes, USA TODAY Sports)
Tight ends
Hayden Hurst | Atlanta Falcons | Sleeper | ADP: 11:12
Atlanta lost Austin Hooper to Cleveland in free agency, paving the way for a trade with the Baltimore Ravens to secure the 2018 first-round pick in Hurst. His rookie year was basically lost after an early injury derailed any chance of building momentum. He was made expendable by way of Mark Andrews’ rise in Baltimore, so the Ravens wisely looked to recoup some of their original investment in Hurst. Despite being a player with limited experience, he’s going to be 27 years old before the season begins, thanks to spending time focusing on his MLB career dreams before walking on to South Carolina’s football team.
At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, he’s fluid and athletic in the passing game but also can block well enough to keep him on the field — and that’s exactly the ticket here. If Hurst can establish himself just enough early on by way of simply being on the field, we know this system is favorable for tight ends, and the Falcons need one more set of hands after Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Hurst shouldn’t be considered a surefire fantasy starter by any means, yet he could cobble together enough action to post TE1 numbers as a composite stat line by year’s end.
Jace Sternberger | Green Bay Packers | Sleeper | ADP: N/A
Feeling frisky? The departure of Jimmy Graham left a hole in the starting lineup that is expected to be filled by the second-year Sternberger. He was drafted in Round 3 last year and didn’t catch a pass until the playoffs, ultimately scoring a touchdown in the conference championship game as a reserve. Sternberger missed eight games during the season after suffering an ankle injury. In summation, he’s not exactly experienced.
The Packers have longed for a tight end for years who can do damage in the passing game. The system employed by Matt LaFleur is friendly to the position, and Green Bay didn’t address its wide receivers in the draft, as many prognosticators (and probably Aaron Rodgers) had expected for a team that was one win away from the Super Bowl. Devin Funchess was brought in during free agency, but he’s far from a lock to contribute. Rookie tight end Josiah Deguara will play more of an H-back role and isn’t a true threat to Sternberger. Every so often a player comes from what seems like absolutely nowhere to become a household fantasy name, and if any tight end is positioned for such a leap this year, Sternberger is the guy.
T.J. Hockenson | Detroit Lions | Undervalued | ADP: 14:01
Coming out of Iowa in 2019, Hockenson was widely dubbed as being the most NFL-ready tight end to go pro in some time, and after a monster Week 1 debut, it looked like he was going to live up to the lofty billing. Instead, following a 6-131-1 line, he posted five total grabs over his next three appearances and scored only once more the entire year, which was cut short to 12 games after an ankle injury. Hockenson also was nicked up with various bumps and bruises that he played through. Some of the blame for the statistical regression is due to Hockenson having to stay in to block more, something that coincided with surges in the box score for WRs Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Then, Matthew Stafford’s season ended after eight starts, and the rest of the season imploded around a rotation of reserve quarterbacks.
In the upcoming season, Hockenson will at least have the familiarity of the same offensive system, despite the offseason program being nonexistent. The Lions have assembled a well-rounded offense of blue-collar talent, and Hockenson fits well into that setting. Top-five numbers may be a year away, but he’s deserving of a much better draft placement than TE18 in a year of increased volatility at the position.
Jack Doyle | Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: 14:06
Doyle is two season removed from an 80-catch, 690-yard, four-score showing with the Colts. He lost most of his 2018 season to injury, playing only six games, and the statistical pace was still right in line with his breakout year. The veteran returned to play 16 contests last year and scored four times once again, but his receptions (43) and yardage (448) were down. It was the first time in his career in which Doyle averaged north of 10 yards per grab, at least. He shared time with Eric Ebron, and Indy’s entire passing game was less than impressive as T.Y. Hilton battled injuries nearly all season.
In the upcoming year, though, Ebron is gone, Philip Rivers replaces Jacoby Brissett, and the only real competition for tight end looks is Trey Burton. To Burton’s credit, he stood out in Philly with current Colts head coach Frank Reich serving as OC. Rivers has made a living throwing to the tight end position, and the Colts upgraded talent in the receiving corps over the past two drafts, which should free up Doyle to see less attention in the intermediate portion of the route tree. No one should bank on Doyle carrying your fantasy team at tight end, of course, but he’s going as the 21st tight end drafted when continuity is working in his favor. Look to add him as a No. 2 who can be used in a pinch.
Dalton Keene | New England Patriots | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
Rarely do rookie tight ends contribute anything of consequence in fantasy football. Rarely does it pay to second-guess Bill Belichick. As the Patriots forge ahead without Tom Brady slinging passes to the usual suspects, New England’s storied coach is expected to turn the keys over to second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham. In turn, pundits scoff and suggest the guy behind the decision would be better off turning to a proven veteran. Perhaps that will prove to be true in time, but it’s never wise to automatically write off Belichick’s eye for talent and ability to get the most out of an unheralded player. All of that ties directly into Keene finding success early on, even without an offseason program.
The rookie has a legit shot at being the top tight end in a system that has lived and died by the position for years. In a system that doesn’t have a particularly strong receiving corps. In a system that will be balanced, if not run-heavy, and rely on play-action passing to alleviate pressure on its young quarterback. In a system that said young quarterback will rely on his targets using their brains more than their brawn. A starter of 38 games at Virginia Tech in three years, Keene could be ready for a markedly successful debut season. And it won’t cost gamers more than a throwaway draft selection to go with a little bit of faith to find out.
Kickers
Matt Gay | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sleeper | ADP: N/A
It’s tough to understand why Gay isn’t being drafted in the top 16, according to ADP figures, after being the No. 6 fantasy kicker in 2019. The offense may not afforded him the 35 kicks he attempted last year, but he still registered 7.8 fantasy points a game while missing five extra points on 48 tries and connected on just 77.1 percent of his field goals (27-for-35). He missed six kicks from 40-plus, including three from greater than 50 yards. Gay missed only three kicks prior to the final three weeks of the year. It’s a little worrisome that two of those games were at home, and one was in Detroit’s climate-controlled confines. He went 0-for-3 in the season finale, so it’s fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to rookie jitters.
In 2018, Fairbairn led all kickers in fantasy football points. He regressed to PK19 last year, which came from a massive regression in field goal attempts, as well as make percentage, going from 2018’s 88.1 percent to 80.0 in 2019. The Texans made significant change on offense, bringing in running back David Johnson and trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason. It’s more than fair to expect this offense will take a step back in explosiveness and score fewer touchdowns. The entire offensive design should be more conservative based on the personnel limitations. More stalled drives tend to result in more three-point tries. If he could get closer to the 42 attempts of 2018 — even, say, kick 35 times — we’re talking about a mid-tier No. 1 kicker.
Last year’s No. 7 fantasy kicker isn’t getting drafted, on average, in the top 16 spots. He posted 7.4 fantasy points per game in 2019, marking the third time in his past four seasons to score at least than much. Lambo’s fantasy success was fueled by a personal-best 34 field goal attempts and and insane 97.1 percent conversation rate. There will be regression in the accuracy, because that’s just not sustainable over time. To counter it, look for an increase from 20 extra point attempts. This offense figures to be more prolific in the TD column with a proven play-caller in Jay Gruden, the maturation of QB Gardner Minshew, and upgrades in the offensive personnel.
Defense/special teams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Undervalued | ADP: 14:12
Tampa’s weak spot is the secondary. The front seven will drive everything, applying ample pressure to mask deficiencies on the back end. The defensive line isn’t particularly aggressive for sacks, but that’s because of the system’s reliance on the linebacking corps, which features the 2019 NFL sack leader in Shaquil Barrett. Linebacker Devin White should improve upon his promising rookie season as last year’s prized first-round choice. The most important factor is rest. The offense should be far more protective of the football than Jameis Winston’s version a year ago, and it’s crazy how much that matters for a defense to stay fresh in a climate like that of central Florida. This should be one of the top-five defenses chosen, not the 14th overall.
New Orleans Saints | Undervalued | ADP: 13:12
In 2019, the Saints were fantasy’s fifth-best defensive unit for points scored. The value differential here is only four spots in relation to ADP, sot it’s not like this unit will be some kind of crazy steal. There’s a lot to be said for continuity in both personnel and coaching during the year of the pandemic, so don’t short-change the notion of stability. The pass rush should remain strong, and the secondary improved. The NFL draft brought in pass-rushing specialist Zack Baun. Offensive consistency also is an important factor, too, and it shouldn’t be understated. Don’t be suckered into overvaluing the universally preferred teams, like New England, Chicago and Buffalo, while passing on a smarter option in New Orleans.
Cleveland Browns | Sleeper | ADP: 14:11
Simply regaining its best defender in Myles Garrett after his 2019 suspension will make a world of difference. The Browns have considerable talent, even if they will be reliant on two rookies making a substantial impact in 2020, so this recommendation isn’t without risk. The defense is going to be faster because of it, too. Look for reasonable jumps in play from second-year linebacker Mack Wilson and cornerback Greedy Williams. While rostering a second defense is almost never worthwhile coming out of a draft, Cleveland is a fringe starting unit if you missed out on the safer options.
Every bit of data helps gain an edge, including knowledge of which players are entering a contract year.
While simply entering a contract year is not a guarantee of increased fantasy football production, gamers look for any extra on-field motivation to put their fake squads over the top. The key when evaluating such data is to treat it as another piece of the puzzle and not get too caught up in this extra info.
All notable players listed below will be unrestricted free agents as of March 2021. The data is based on USA TODAY Sports’ partner Spotrac.com’s free-agent charts.
Notes: Ages reflect how old the player will be upon entering free agency. Players in bold font are considered to have the most to gain from a strong season.
See why Jeremy Fowler of ESPN believes Bucs rookie running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn could have fantasy value in 2020.
Leading up to the 2020 NFL draft, the majority of mocks had the Bucs taking an offensive tackle in round one, something that seemed all but certain after the team signed six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady. And, many mocks felt the Bucs would continue to make upgrades on offense in round two by selecting a running back.
While the Bucs did take an OT in round one in the form of Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, they opted for defense in round two by drafting Minnesota safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Ultimately, Tampa Bay addressed their backfield in round three by selecting Vanderbilt running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn. The move surprised some, considering top-ranked running back Zack Moss was still available. But the Bucs like the potential Vaughn displays and think he’ll be a great fit for Tom Brady.
Jeremy Fowler of ESPN even predicted that Vaughn could have some surprise value in fantasy football this season.
Per Fowler:
“Tom Brady loves a good running game, and the Bucs thought enough of Vaughn to draft him instead of trading for Leonard Fournette. Vaughn plays with an edge and doesn’t fumble, traits that could earn him valuable touches in a backfield with Ronald Jones.”
Jones had a solid 2019 campaign, finishing the year with 724 yards and six touchdowns. Vaughn will provide more support in the passing game, too, and Brady loves throwing to his backs. Vaughn might be worth a gamble for fantasy owners in the later rounds.
Tight ends typically struggle at the next level in Year 1. Will this year be different?
Now that we have had some time to digest the NFL draft and its aftermath, us fantasy footballers are excitedly waiting to add some of the rookies to our fake teams. Deciding which players have fantasy worth in 2020 comes down to assessing the likelihood of meaningful playing time. The following players are ranked in order of anticipated opportunity and corresponding value.
[lawrence-related id=450188]
(Steve Mitchell, USA TODAY Sports)
Most immediate impact
Dalton Keene | New England Patriots | 6-4, 253 | Virginia Tech
Tight ends rarely contribute draft-worthy in fantasy football as rookies. Exceptions can be found, sure, but they required the right balance between player-system-personnel to be successful. What confluence tends to create a valuable rookie tight end? A quarterback either so good he can run through his progressions to find the open player, or he’s the exact opposite (inexperienced) and bails on his reads to lean on a safety blanket. Next, the system has to incorporate the position in routes and not rely on him as merely a blocker. Emphasizing the position as a top-two read helps eliminate the need for the passer to be able to quickly progress through the targets. Finally, personnel options — are the other receiving targets so capable that the position gets overshadowed, regardless of talent?
New England can check boxes for all three: Inexperienced quarterback, an emphasis on the position via system designs, and limited talent among the other receiving assets. Keene has the athletic traits to stand out as a rookie, and the Pats have a need for him. His status vaults from late-round flier to strong TE2 if there is a full training camp.
Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | 6-6, 262 | Notre Dame
Pointing to the recipe for success at tight end once again, Kmet enters a situation that sort of offers what he would need to impress as a rookie. The quarterback situation (either Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles) works in his favor. The system’s root model heavily leans on the position, although we haven’t yet seen it from Matt Nagy’s team. Personnel … well, that doesn’t favor Kmet so much. He’s all but guaranteed to open behind Jimmy Graham. It’s pretty clear the once-dominant tight end should have retired at least a year ago, which helps Kmet’s chances, but Bears general manager Ryan Pace’s suspect eye for talent continues to haunt the team.
Furthermore, from the personnel column, it’s not just Graham working against the rookie. Allen Robinson rebounded nicely last year. Anthony Miller has the makings of a fine WR2. Cordarrelle Patterson and Ted Ginn are now in the fold. Running back Tarik Cohen catches the rock. Bill Lazor is the newest OC in the Windy City, and his track record — let’s just say it hasn’t been great. Kmet has a brilliant future and reminds of Jason Witten in many ways — blue-collar blocker with plus-hands and the right attitude. Even the future Hall of Famer stunk as a fantasy rookie…
(Sam Greene)
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Devin Asiasi | New England Patriots | 6-3, 257 | UCLA
The former Bruin was selected higher than Keene by 10 spots in Round 3 and offers some intriguing traits. Asiasi entered the 2019 season with only eight total catches and then tacked on a line of 44-641-4. He’s quite raw but offers so many physical traits to get excited about — but not in 2020 drafts. He’s at least a year away from being a meaningful contributor. There is an outside chance of utility in the upcoming season as he battles Keene for the primary receiving work at tight end. Asiasi has fought weight fluctuations, and no offseason program could be problematic from a number of angles. Tuck his name away in the old memory bank for now.
Josiah Deguara | Green Bay Packers | 6-2, 242 | Cincinnati
More of an H-back with the ability to even play a conventional fullback role, Deguara leaves the Bearcats after a prolific career. Green Bay seems to like what second-year tight end Jace Sternberger could offer, and veteran Marcedes Lewis is hanging around but is more of a blocker. Deguara may have a role like San Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, according to head coach Matt LaFleur. That’s not ideal for fantasy — a receiving fullback who can move around but has no prominent role in the offense.
Given Seattle’s problems with keeping tight ends healthy in the last few years, one has to at least question if Parkinson will get a shot as a rookie. He’s obvious bright as a Stanford guy, and he is an imposing figure in the red zone. Nevertheless, he’ll enter the offseason behind some combination of Will Dissly (Achilles), Luke Willson, Jacob Hollister and, of course, Greg Olsen. A lot will change. Who knows if Dissly returns to form, Willson isn’t much of a receiver, Hollister is a journeyman, and Olsen is fragile. Watch how it plays out if we get a training camp this offseason.
[lawrence-related id=450218]
Adam Trautman | New Orleans Saints | 6-5, 255 | Dayton
Crazy upside, but he’s coming from a small school and enters a loaded offense with two extremely capable veterans ahead of him. There is little chance we see Trautman garner enough action to matter in 2020. His long-term outlook is quite enticing at least.
Albert Okwuegbunam | Denver Broncos | 6-5, 258 | Missouri
“Albert O,” as he is known, was reunited with one of his college quarterbacks, Drew Lock. The athletic tight end has an intriguing upside about him but is raw and will need time to develop. Unless something happens to cost Noah Fant significant time, Okwuegbunam shouldn’t see much action behind veteran backups Jeff Heuerman and Nick Vannett in this suddenly talent-laden offense.
All of these terms aptly describe Bryant: Fluid, athletic, raw, dangerous. He’s built in the same mold as George Kittle, which is a lofty comparison, but it took the star tight end a year to really get his feet wet. In 2020, Bryant enters behind the highest-paid tight end in NFL history in newcomer Austin Hooper, and veteran David Njoku also returns. This will be mostly a redshirt year for Bryant without help from that nasty injury bug.
(Nikos Frazier, Journal & Courier)
Roster fodder?
Brycen Hopkins | Los Angeles Rams | 6-4, 245 | Purdue
The son of an NFL tackle, Hopkins gets an opportunity to learn the ropes behind two serviceable tight ends in Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. The former really came into his own last year down the stretch. In an ideal situation for the Rams, Hopkins will observe from the sidelines and play special teams.
Charlie Woerner | San Francisco 49ers | 6-5, 244 | Georgia
The former Bulldog has a shot to move up to third on the depth chart behind Kittle and Ross Dwelley. It’s unlikely he touches the ball more than a few times all season.
Davis has some chops and will have a shot to showcase them eventually. No offseason program really hurts his cause. Worse, Jacksonville added Tyler Eifert in the offseason and drafted pass-catching tight end Josh Oliver last year.
Stephen Sullivan | Seattle Seahawks | 6-5, 248 | LSU
Seattle drafted a Parkinson three rounds ahead of Sullivan, and this will probably be a practice squad year for the tight end trapped in a receiver’s body.
A rundown of fantasy football outlooks for all drafted wide receivers in 2020.
Now that we have had some time to digest the NFL draft and its aftermath, us fantasy footballers are excitedly waiting to add some of the rookies to our fake teams. Deciding which players have fantasy worth in 2020 comes down to assessing the likelihood of meaningful playing time. The following players are ranked in order of anticipated opportunity and corresponding value.
(Kim Klement, USA TODAY Sports)
Most immediate impact
Jerry Jeudy | Denver Broncos | 6-1, 192 | Alabama
Year
Team
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
2017
Alabama
14
264
18.9
2
36
2018
Alabama
68
1,315
19.3
14
81
2019
Alabama
77
1,163
15.1
10
85
Jeudy’s all-around game translates so well to the pros. He’s not only the most NFL-ready, in my opinion, the Alabama star is also in the best of circumstances. Denver has been dedicated to getting better on offense and adding speed on the outside. Drew Lock is poised to take a significant step forward in his second year after going 4-1 as a starter, throwing seven touchdowns vs. three picks. The Broncos have a blossoming tight end in Noah Fant, and Melvin Gordon joins the backfield with an above-average receiving ability in tow.
The total unknown here is how quickly Jeudy will pick up the system and whether he’ll get a chance to build chemistry with his new quarterback. Going from the left-handed Tua Tagovailoa to a righty with all of the zip in the world can take a moment to get used to reeling in. Drafting in this climate of uncertainty requires a leap of faith, and Jeudy deserves a WR3 or flex placement in most PPR league formats. Drop him a hair in standard setups.
Henry Ruggs III | Las Vegas Raiders | 6-0, 190 | Alabama
Year
Team
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
2017
Alabama
12
229
19.1
6
60
2018
Alabama
46
741
16.1
11
57
2019
Alabama
40
746
18.6
7
81
Several receivers caught more passes last year in FBS than Ruggs did during his entire career, but it goes to show traits and not stats matter the most in player evaluation. Ruggs brings a speed game to the Raiders that rivals Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill. The offense has a glaring need for speed, and Ruggs’ addition gives Derek Carr a bona fide can opener from anywhere on the field.
The Raiders still have several weapons to catch the ball. Look for a substantial jump for slot receiver Hunter Renfrow in the receptions column. Darren Waller is still — believe it or not — learning the ropes of being an NFL tight end. Scary. WR Tyrell Williams is not a true No. 1, yet he’s no slouch, either. It is conceivable Ruggs could be force-fed passes on all three levels. Don’t bank on it, though, at least not initially. Playing at Alabama and in the SEC will put Ruggs on the right side of the curve — be patient and realize his current profile is more of a low-volume, occasional high-output guy, which should change in time. Think WR3 or flex, and give him a bump in non-PPR.
Lamb is about as explosive a wideout as the draft has to offer, and he enters an offensive system that was vertically dangerous in 2019. Mike McCarthy may have replaced Jason Garrett, but the offensive coordinator gig still belongs to Kellen Moore. Lamb joins Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup each averaged more than 15 yards per grab last year. Lamb will get to work out of the slot and provide Dak Prescott yet another lethal threat.
There will be monster efforts put forth by Lamb, and some of them will come in 2020, but knowing when to start him may drive gamers bonkers. There are two studly receivers and arguably the best running back in the game that all will want theirs. Matchup exploitation is almost assuredly how Lamb will get his. Much like his collegiate stat lines illustrate, low-volume, big-production is his thing. Unfortunately, partly because of the team recognition and being a first-round draft choice, fantasy footballers will overvalue Lamb. His year-end stats will look the part of a No. 3, and getting there may be pocked from week to week.
Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | 6-2, 192 | LSU
Year
Team
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
2018
LSU
54
875
16.2
6
65
2019
LSU
111
1,540
13.9
18
71
Adam Thielen returns from an injury-marred season as the No. 1 target for Kirk Cousins. No longer beside him is Stefon Diggs, whose disgruntled position toward team use earned him a trip to Buffalo. The previous ground-and-pound offensive directive from head coach Mike Zimmer won’t require a mandate for new OC Gary Kubiak. It comes naturally to him — sometimes at the overall expense of fantasy production by his wideouts.
Jefferson, the 22nd overall pick, could improve his route-running nuances, as with almost any new player. Nevertheless, his physical traits alone position him well against NFL competition. He ran from an spread system in 2019 and was more productive from the slot, where Thielen and then-rookie Bisi Johnson spent about a third of their respective routes last year in Kevin Stefanski’s offense. Diggs barely operated out of the slot (14 percent). The Vikings will look to get Jefferson involved on crossing routes to create mismatches. Tight end Irv Smith Jr. is bound to see an uptick in plays, and former Tennessee Titans WR Tajae Sharpe enters the fray. Will there be enough balls to go around from an offense that ranked dead last in the use of three-wide sets? Kubiak will go three-wide a little more often, and we’re still talking about a high draft pick. Jefferson is a No. 3 or flex target in fantasy.
Van Jefferson | Los Angeles Rams | 6-2, 197 | Florida
Year
Team
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
2016
Ole Miss
49
543
11.1
3
44
2017
Ole Miss
42
456
10.9
1
40
2018
Florida
35
503
14.4
6
41
2019
Florida
49
657
13.4
6
69
The son of an NFL receivers coach and former wideout, Jefferson’s stats were depressed playing in offenses that didn’t offer much support. He’s an elite route-runner and has above-average hands. Jefferson is unlikely to challenge deep, and he’s often too aggressive for his own good. He fits a role in the Rams’ system, however, and the trade of Brandin Cooks paves the way for an impactful rookie campaign. Depending on how the offseason continues to shape up, Jefferson could go from having an immediate role if there’s a training camp to speak of, or the lack of one punts his timeline as a Year 1 contributor to much later in the season.
This offense has Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods as the top options, and Jefferson is an ideal blend of both. He plays with an insane competitive streak, and Jared Goff won’t have to worry much about the rookie’s understanding of the game once the playbook is digested. Timing and chemistry matter to a crazy degree in this offense, though. Put tremendous emphasis on an offseason program molding Jefferson as a professional rookie. Veteran Josh Reynolds is poised to enjoy a much stronger first half of the year until Jefferson is fully immersed. The range is probably a weekly flex candidate with a training camp to hardly useful without one.
[lawrence-related id=450188]
Michael Pittman Jr. | Indianapolis Colts | 6-4, 220 | USC
Year
Team
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
2016
USC
6
82
13.7
0
21
2017
USC
23
404
17.6
2
54
2018
USC
41
758
18.5
6
65
2019
USC
101
1,275
12.6
11
77
Progression. That sums up his collegiate career. From 2016 through ’19, Pittman improved every year and showed off his true potential. Quarterback Philip Rivers is going to find similarities in Pittman’s game to that of former teammate Mike Williams. Being that Pittman’s father, Michael, was a quality running back in the NFL, perhaps the lack of a traditional offseason makes Year 1 contributions well within the realm of plausible.
Targets are the primary way Pittman the Younger will get into fantasy lineups with regularity. T.Y. Hilton is a full-blown injury liability at this point, and Parris Campbell did next to nothing as a rookie last year to earn the benefit of the doubt he’s ready to ascend. Marcus Johnson and Zach Pascal have flashed a little here and there … no reason to get concerned. Pittman has a clear shot at No. 2 playing time and warrants a PPR selection in the latter stages of fantasy drafts. All upside, low risk. Enjoy!
Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-4, 215 | Clemson
Year
Team
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
2017
Clemson
17
345
20.3
2
78
2018
Clemson
59
936
15.9
12
64
2019
Clemson
59
1,167
19.8
13
65
The Bengals have supplied rookie quarterback Joe Burrow with ample weaponry, including Clemson stud Tee Higgins as the first pick in Round 2. In most situations, Higgins’ skills and traits should vault him up the fantasy draft board in relation to his peers, but the lack of a defined offseason program for not only him but his rookie QB is asking a great deal to break in our favor as gamers. The positives: excellent size-speed combo, leaping ability in the red zone, and high-level productivity at an elite program. It will likely be a roller coaster of flashes of brilliance and frustration in 2020 for both the wideout and his new quarterback.
A.J. Green, in theory, is healthy and the No. 1 guy. Tyler Boyd has established himself as an awesome No. 2 target, and John Ross’ speed can be utilized. Zac Taylor’s offensive design is going open up the passing game and spread the wideouts. Having an improving offensive line is a big help, as is the proven backfield of Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard. All of that summed up translates to a season of better year-end numbers than week-to-week consistency for Higgins, but there is crazy upside, especially if Green gets injured yet again. Draft the rookie wideout as a No. 4 if you start two receivers and as a flex in leagues that allows four or more in a lineup.
Plenty of people will disagree with concerns of Shenault being another Cordarrelle Patterson — two players with superb athletic traits, positional versatility, and a wealth of unrefined skills — but the Colorado product is undoubtedly a better true receiver. Injuries are a significant concern (toe, torn shoulder labrum in 2018, core surgery in Feb. 2020), and Shenault’s punishing style of play suggests more of them in time.
Fantasy footballers have to realize he’s a work-in-progress whose electric ability is exciting. He also is limited in the nuances of being a receiver, and savvy NFL cornerbacks will eat him alive some weeks. Training camp is more important for this player profile than most others. Jay Gruden’s lack of creativity is another concern. Where does Shenault consistently find touches in an offense with three reasonably talented receivers ahead of him, a veteran tight end, and a pair of running backs capable of catching the rock? It will be a whole lot of guesswork as for when to play Shenault in 2020.
Brandon Aiyuk | San Francisco 49ers | 6-0, 201 | Arizona State
Year
Team
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
2018
Arizona State
33
474
14.4
3
58
2019
Arizona State
65
1,192
18.3
8
86
The trajectory is vertical for Aiyuk, both figuratively and literally. He’s a downfield weapon capable of fluid movements and natural hands. While he absolutely will need to rely on a strong coaching staff to help improve the nuanced areas of being a pro wideout, he came to the right place. We saw rookie Deebo Samuel take advantage of his situation last year. WRs coach Wes Welker should make a difference in the maturation process for Aiyuk, a small-school transfer to ASU.
He’s still figuring it all out, which is scary for NFC West defenses once it clicks. Expecting that light to go on immediately is unwise, particularly so given this COVID-19 climate. Nonetheless, an opportunity to play a real-life WR2 role matters, even if it is closer to a WR3 thanks to tight end George Kittle. As for his fantasy football worth, he’s better in standard scoring by a smidge and rates as roster depth for now.
Denzel Mims | New York Jets | 6-3, 206 | Baylor
Year
Team
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
2016
Baylor
4
24
6.0
0
10
2017
Baylor
61
1,087
17.8
8
71
2018
Baylor
55
794
14.4
8
55
2019
Baylor
66
1,020
15.5
12
46
Baylor’s system catered to Mims’ natural abilities, and he was mostly consistent over the past three years. There will be an increased learning curve coming from Matt Rhule’s offense; Jets offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains operates a more traditional design and fears getting funky. Mims made a name for himself being overly reliant on the combo of size and athleticism — both important but hardly the be-all, end-all solution in the NFL. The long-striding Mims has drawn criticism for a lack of intensity, and there’s no question his footwork needs a helping hand from pro coaches.
New York desperately needs someone with a little extra go in his game, which is more of Mims’ style. He’s going to be asked to take over the vertical role from Robby Anderson’s departure. Big upside towering over a suspect foundation … Mims probably never develops into a true No. 1 receiver but is in position to be given every chance to one-up Anderson’s checkered stint. Buffalo and New England were the third- and best defenses vs. receivers in fantasy last year, and Miami dramatically upgraded its secondary. This could be an ugly year for Mims more often than not.
(Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports)
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
KJ Hamler | Denver Broncos | 5-9, 176 | Penn State
Denver’s clear offensive goal in the last two offseasons has been to get faster and add more weapons in the passing game — even the addition of running back Melvin Gordon upgrades the aerial attack. The first-round pick of Jeudy gives Courtland Sutton a No. 2 receiver sidekick for 2020 before probably giving way to Jeudy as the top dog. Hamler is a strictly a slot receiver and a special teams weapon. New offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur will find creative ways to get the rock into Hamler’s hands. The downside is this offense now has so many weapons, a rookie slot receiver could get lost in the fold.
Jalen Reagor | Philadelphia Eagles | 5-11, 195 | TCU
In the best-case scenario for the Eagles, Alshon Jeffery stays healthy, and DeSean Jackson joins him on the field for close to a full season. JJ Arcega-Whiteside steps up as a possession option, and Marquise Goodwin offers another vertical threat. Where does a rookie burner with an issue of (likely) no training camp fit in? All reasonable alternatives: D-Jax gets cut, Jeffery falls to injury yet again, JJAW doesn’t take a leap forward, and Goodwin continues his inconsistent ways. Reagor is an explosive athlete whose ability in the open field can be eye-popping. His dad was an eight-year NFL veteran defensive lineman, so not having an offseason may not be as harsh as for other rookies. Barring a major personnel change, he’s going to be a fringe fantasy asset in 2020 leagues. Draft with caution.
The size-speed combination is off the charts, and the Steelers definitely could utilize both. Provided Ben Roethlisberger returns from his elbow surgery free of major regression and reinjury, he’ll have a promising rookie in Claypool to target in the red zone. Working his way into the mix, the weekly inconsistency could be maddening from former Golden Domer. The Steelers have pass-catching outlets in JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Eric Ebron and Diontae Johnson all likely ahead of Claypool. An injury is his best route to finding meaningful PT. Late-round fliers only in conventional leagues.
Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin will open as the top receivers, with veteran Willie Snead having Lamar Jackson’s trust in contested-catch situations. The Ravens also have one of the best tight ends in football, and the overall offensive theme revolves around pounding the ball. Duvernay brings even more speed to the offense (4.39-second 40 time), also adding another set of reliable hands. Duvernay’s long-term projection is that of a quality WR2, yet it may take a year or two before he is given a legitimate shot.
Antonio Gandy-Golden | Washington Redskins | 6-4, 223 | Liberty
Gandy-Golden is the real deal coming out of the tiny, religious-based Liberty University. The Redskins need to find a reliable option to pair with Terry McLaurin. That guy might already have been on the roster (Kelvin Harmon, Steve Sims Jr.), yet the brass smartly felt the need to bolster the position even further. AGG is expected to challenge for a starting job and is pure upside as a rookie. In time, he should develop into a regular name in fantasy football. Be cautiously optimistic right now, and few receivers entering the league will be as needy of an on-field training camp as this small-school standout.
[lawrence-related id=450218]
Tyler Johnson | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-2, 205 | Minnesota
Johnson will take his talented route-running skills into battle for the slot role against Justin Watson. Tom Brady will love to know he can count on Johnson being where he needs to end up, although one has to downgrade this factor a few notches due to the current quarantine climate. It’s hard to not see this as a case of too many mouths to feed.
John Hightower | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-1, 189 | Boise State
The speedy fifth-rounder enters a logjam at wide receiver when everyone is healthy. Given Hightower’s wheels, he will get some attention from fantasy footballers, but the opportunity simply may not materialize in 2020. DeSean Jackson still can run, and Jalen Reagor, if for no reason other than being a first-round pick, is far ahead of Hightower on the depth chart at this point. Hightower could emerge as being fantasy-relevant with another injury from Jackson.
Bryan Edwards | Las Vegas Raiders | 6-3, 215 | South Carolina
Injuries have marred the whole picture of Edwards’ collegiate career. He missed time with a meniscus tear, concussion and sports hernia — all before breaking his foot in February while preparing for the draft. Jon Gruden will love the physicality and willingness to get dirty trying to grab a football. Las Vegas likely will bury Edwards on the depth chart to begin whatever happens for an offseason program/training camp.
Gabriel Davis | Buffalo Bills | 6-3, 212 | Central Florida
The top three wideouts are pretty etched into stone, and the one has to presume Buffalo would call on Duke Williams or Isaiah McKenzie in a pinch before turning the keys over to Davis. In time, Davis should crack a starting lineup. It won’t be in 2020 without injury assistance.
The new-look Houston receiving corps doesn’t come without injury concerns. Brandin Cooks is one concussion away from possibly having to retire, and Randall Cobb has injury history of note. Will Fuller is quite possibly the most fragile of wideouts in the game. Keke Coutee was banged up as a rookie and fell out of favor. Coulter is worth monitoring but not drafting.
Collin Johnson | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-6, 220 | Texas
Size and hands work in his favor for an early role with the Jaguars, albeit likely one of virtually no fantasy worth. Predicting when a fifth-round receiver may be thrown to in the red zone is a fool’s errand most of the time.
Jauan Jennings | San Francisco 49ers | 6-3, 208 | Tennessee
Jennings has a bunch of dudes in front of him, but that’s the silver lining — outside of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, they’re just guys. Jennings’ 6-foot-3 frame could come in handy, but he is a seventh-rounder and will be forced to earn everything.
Dezmon Patmon | Indianapolis Colts | 6-4, 228 | Washington State
Injury history for T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell could help put Patmon on the field for serious playing time, but the rookie’s size is his most likely opportunity to play limited snaps in the red zone. There’s no fantasy value on draft day here, but the door isn’t locked shut, either.
Minnesota will remain heavily invested in the running game. Trading away Stefon Diggs created the need for a wideout selection early on, which was Jefferson, but that leaves Osborn in the conversation for the No. 3 role if he can beat out Olabisi Johnson and Tajae Sharpe. Adam Thielen’s struggle with injuries last year also is a factor. Osborn is best used out of the slot.
[lawrence-related id=450176]
Quintez Cephus | Detroit Lions | 6-1, 207 | Wisconsin
One has to imagine the rookie enters the summer behind Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola and Geronimo Allison. Nevertheless, injury history for those guy is rather noteworthy. Cephus is a poor man’s Jones in many ways but lacks the straight-line speed of the veteran.
K.J. Hill | Los Angeles Chargers | 6-0, 195 | Ohio State
Hill gets to battle Joe Reed for the No. 3 role in an offense that probably opens with Tyrod Taylor before he eventually cedes the job to No. 6 overall pick Justin Herbert. Reed offers more athleticism, whereas Hill is a reliable target in the intermediate area of the field.
Joe Reed | Los Angeles Chargers | 6-1, 215 | Virginia
A fifth-round pick, Reed went two rounds ahead of Hill. His athleticism probably gives him an edge for the No. 3 gig. Los Angeles has plenty of weapons in the passing game ahead of that role, which stymies the rookie’s upside a great deal. Watch this situation play out … there likely won’t be enough footballs to go around without an injury, however.
Philadelphia spent two picks in the first five rounds on wideouts before taking Watkins in Round 6. Any chance of seeing the field will require some help. After last year, however, durability in Philly’s receiving corps wasn’t a thing.
James Proche | Baltimore Ravens | 5-11, 193 | SMU
The 2019 FBS co-leader in receptions (111), Proche is best suited for the slot. He can line up outside, though, and the creativity of the offensive designs could take advantage of his route-running-hands combo. However, volume isn’t going to be there, and a small-school rook with no offseason program screams “stay away” in fantasy.
No clear path to fantasy utility
Requires multiple injuries and/or personnel moves to have any realistic shot at seeing the field enough to matter in 2020 fantasy football.
Darnell Mooney | Chicago Bears | 5-11, 174 | Tulane
Examining the situations of every drafted running back in the 2020 class.
Now that we have had some time to digest the NFL draft and its aftermath, us fantasy footballers are excitedly waiting to add some of the rookies to our fake teams. Deciding which players have fantasy worth in 2020 comes down to assessing the likelihood of meaningful playing time. The following players are ranked in order of anticipated opportunity and corresponding value.
[lawrence-related id=450188]
(Alicia Devine, Tallahassee Democrat)
Most immediate impact
Cam Akers | Los Angeles Rams | 5-10, 217 | Florida State
Year
Team
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
2017
FSU
194
1,024
5.3
7
63
16
116
7.3
1
2018
FSU
161
706
4.4
6
85
23
145
6.3
2
2019
FSU
231
1,144
5.0
14
50
30
225
7.5
4
Akers is a do-all weapon out of the backfield and has been highly productive when given the chance. He’s tasked with taking charge of a faceless backfield. While Todd Gurley remained lethal around the stripe, he ran for a career-low 857 yards on 223 carries (3.8 per attempt). The entire offense lagged in comparison to the prior year.
Part of Akers’ assignment will be to share the workload with some combination of veteran grinder Malcolm Brown and 2019 third-rounder Darrell Henderson, whose rookie season was a thorough disappointment. Sometimes it takes a year or two for everything to click, even at running back, but it’s not like Gurley was entirely on point, either.
This one is all about the opportunity to steal as many backfield handles as Akers can get his mitts on … and make no mistake about it, the Rams will roll with the hot hand as much as possible. Akers has the makings of a dual-threat asset for PPR gamers, somewhere in the RB2 or flex range for most league formats.
Some see Maurice Jones-Drew, but Devonta Freeman is probably the better NFL comp. Edwards-Helaire is one determined fella, and his skills in the passing game give the creative KC offensive brain trust so many possibilities. There are other backs in the mix — as there should be in today’s NFL — looking to challenge the rookie. When healthy, Damien Williams has performed about as well as anyone could expect in the past two years. He’s also not an every-down performer, despite having the skills to play all three downs. Edwards-Helaire provides a better option for the Chiefs inside of the 5-yard line.
The former Tiger also has to deal with Darwin Thompson and DeAndre Washington. Both have traits that could earn them a few touches per contest. It shouldn’t be taken for granted that a rookie automatically is the top guy in the backfield, regardless of draft placement, and especially in a pandemic shutdown. Talent typically wins out. Translation: Washington would have signed elsewhere as a starter, and Thompson would have flashed more last year. Give CEH the benefit of the doubt as an RB2-lite … he will have games of studly contributions but also may get lost in the shuffle of an offense that is about as lethal as they come through the vertical game. It’s hard to rack up fantasy points when you’re watching the offense score on abbreviated drives due to Tyreek Hill and Co.
One could argue Swift is the best overall back in the 2020 class without facing much contention. The better discussion is whether Detroit needed him, but we’ll save that for another day. The Lions clearly want to run the ball and take shots when required or strategic. Kerryon Johnson has the flimsiest of grasps on the starting job entering the summer — no offseason program works in his favor. Durability issues do not, and that’s the ticket for Swift, even if he doesn’t see a single snap of on-field work prior to Week 1.
Both backs undoubtedly acquit themselves in the passing game, and neither is truly built for an every-down pounding. The offensive system has generated a few studly campaigns through the years (Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch say hello). The major doubt should come from whether the defense will allow the offense to remain committed to the ground game. Swift’s pass-catching talents will come into play in this area. In PPR, the former Bulldog is a safer option as a borderline No. 2 fantasy back. He easily approaches RB1 status with a long-term Johnson injury.
Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | 5-10, 226 | Wisconsin
Year
Team
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
2017
WIS
299
1,977
6.6
13
75
8
95
11.9
0
2018
WIS
307
2,194
7.1
16
88
8
60
7.5
0
2019
WIS
320
2,003
6.3
21
72
26
252
9.7
5
How many backs can say they averaged more than 2,000 yards for three straight years? You’re looking at him. Taylor is, in fact, the second back (Troy Davis 1995-96) to consecutively break the 2,000-yard barrier. No one with any experience evaluating college and professional football will tell you with a straight face that it translates to the NFL in any apple-to-apple sense. The one true correlation is mileage … a human body can take only so much, especially at running back, before it says no mas.
Only dynasty leaguers care if he plays beyond 2020. In single-year formats, the Year 1 utility of Taylor remains in question. The most talented back in Indy, he’s still a rookie entering an offseason without an on-field program. The Colts also have Nyheim Hines in the aerial game, an area in which Taylor’s game needs refinement anyway. One has to believe Taylor will outright steal the No. 1a work from Marlon Mack, which is dubious, or that Mack will once again lose time to injuries, which is seemingly inevitable. It also makes valuating Taylor beyond frustrating. If Mack were to get hurt in Week 1, we could be talking about a Rookie of the Year candidate. Conversely, how much utility do gamers get from drafting Taylor as, say, an RB3 and he only shares touches evenly with Mack all year? But at least that offensive line is elite!
Ke’Shawn Vaughn | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5-10, 214 | Vanderbilt
Year
Team
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
2015
ILL
157
723
4.6
6
78
16
119
7.4
0
2016
ILL
60
301
5.0
3
65
9
89
9.9
0
2018
VAN
157
1,244
7.9
12
78
13
170
13.1
2
2019
VAN
198
1,028
5.2
9
75
29
286
9.9
1
Opportunity often overshadows talent. That is exactly what is going on in this case. Vaughn is a talented back but has limitations (athleticism and fluidity). There also is the huge issue of being a starter, or even the largest portion of a touch share, still isn’t all that large in comparison to other primary backs. The Bucs didn’t sign Tom Brady and trade for Rob Gronkowski to hand it off to a mediocre rookie back all day. Then there’s Ronald Jones and rookie Raymond Calais in the mix.
Vaughn still could manage to generate low-tier RB2 work, if he can average something like 4.5 yards per carry and find the end zone at least eight total times. Jones will be the more likely weapon in the passing game for Bruce Arians’ group, and it will take at least a brief time early on for Vaughn to get up to speed with the pace of the NFL coming out of Illinois and Vanderbilt’s programs. Draft the rookie as a third back with modest expectations, believing it probably won’t get much better than flex territory.
Mark Ingram isn’t getting any younger, and Justice Hill figuratively incarcerated himself via paltry play in 2019. Gus Edwards is just a dude. In other words, Dobbins has a clear sight of being the top dog in this backfield. While it’s not automatic, and he’ll need some breaks (physically or figuratively), the Ohio State star is positioned nicely for a chance at a huge role in 2020. Draft him as a No. 4 and a handcuff to Ingram, but don’t be totally shocked if we see something much closer to an even split than an Ingram-dominated share of the touches. All of that aside, Lamar Jackson’s legs have Dobbins operating in a hamstrung manner no matter the touch count.
By virtue of no one to speak of around him, Evans goes from small-school standout to backing up the NFL’s leading rusher in the blink of an eye. He’s thoroughly a change-of-pace contrast to Derrick Henry’s damaging rushing style. The Titans hardly have turned away from Henry, however. Last year’s top backup, Dion Lewis, touched the rock just only 79 times in 16 games after 214 handles the prior year. Evans is a handcuff to Henry and a standalone No. 4 with flex potential in PPR.
Moss landed in a pretty good spot as far as opportunity goes, yet the downside of it all cannot be overlooked. A rookie in 2019, Devin Singletary is the explosive option of this likely pairing, making Moss more of a grinding complement. The Bills absolutely needed someone like Moss, which suggests he’ll be involved early and often. That said, the former Ute faces touch uncertainty and has a the looming issue of QB Josh Allen stealing scoring chances in the red zone. Moss belongs on all 2020 rosters as an RB3 with weekly flex consideration, but consistent production may be tough to come by as a rook.
Joshua Kelley | Los Angeles Chargers | 5-11, 212 | UCLA
Austin Ekeler has been a fantastic find for the Bolts and was extended in the offseason. Kelley enters a backfield to compete with Justin Jackson for No. 2, which is a role that probably winds up touching the ball, at the very least, 100 times. Kelley, a fourth-round pick, is a punishing, downhill runner whose game contributes to an early expiration date. No one much cares for 2020, though, if the UCLA product doesn’t last in the NFL until the ripe old age of 30. In the upcoming season, Kelley has a legitimate chance of entering RB2 territory a few times, although the safe view of his situation is somewhere around being a No. 4 with tremendous upside. Few players at his position stand to benefit more from a full training camp to show off his abilities. Stay tuned…
AJ Dillon | Green Bay Packers | 6-0, 247 | Boston College
Green Bay’s second curious draft choice in as many picks, Dillon is a battering ram with a nose for paydirt. Aaron Jones is coming off of one of the finest fantasy seasons in recent memory, and Jamaal Williams has proven quite capable off in reserve. In 2021, both players are set to become unrestricted free agents. It stands to reason we’ll see an extension for Jones, but Williams is likely to walk. In that context, Dillon’s addition makes a little more sense, even if the idea of sitting on a highly drafted running back for a year is foolish. All of that out of the way, Dillon might be able to overtake Williams as the changeup — so long as he gets a shot with a full-ish training camp. Wait before making any serious investment in Dillon; he’s an RB5 at the moment but could vault closer to an RB3.
(Steve Mitchell, USA TODAY Sports)
Roster fodder?
Antonio Gibson | Washington Redskins | 6-0, 228 pounds | Memphis
Gibson is expected to move from wide receiver to running back, but he wasn’t too much of a true receiver in the first place. Curtis Samuel comes to mind, and not just for the obvious connection to the Redskins’ new coaching staff. It gets complicated when looking for a clear path to enough touches to matter in fantasy. Adrian Peterson, Derrius Guice, Bryce Love, Peyton Barber … where exactly will Gibson fit in? He’s a better receiver than all of them, so that’s a plus, as is Peterson’s age (35) and substantial injury history for Guice and Love. Go go gadget Gibson.
Eno Benjamin | Arizona Cardinals | 5-9, 207 | Arizona State
This one comes down to whether we should trust Kenyan Drake over a full season to play like he did down the stretch (or even close to it) last year. It also forces one to prematurely question whether Chase Edmonds is an injury liability. Benjamin can do a little bit of it all, offering three-down worth and a willingness in pass protection. Tuck away his name for whatever comes of the training camp situation for this year.
The former wide receiver turned running back enters a Seattle backfield looking for a sure-handed weapon out of the backfield. Dallas joins Seattle to find former first-rounder Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson pretty well entrenched in the top two, although we’ve seen a few times from Pete Carroll that rookies can win prominent roles. The problem here for Dallas is he probably won’t have an offseason to showcase his ability. Travis Homer also likely enters whatever would be a form of training camp ahead of the rookie. Barring another injury to Carson and/or Penny, it’s tough to find regular touches for Dallas.
Anthony McFarland Jr. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-8, 208 | Maryland
The Steelers drafted midround backs in consecutive years, but McFarland and Benny Snell Jr. really couldn’t be that much different from one another. James Conner is teetering on the edge of being an injury liability, and Jaylen Samuels thus far has proven mostly ineffective as a the utility back of this lot. Despite so many bodies ahead of him, McFarland has a puncher’s chance of seeing meaningful action throughout 2020 and is a late-round gamble for PPR types.
Lamical Perine | New York Jets | 5-10, 216 | Florida
Perine’s 2020 fantasy football stock had an enticing outlook of New York aiming to ease Le’Veon Bell’s workload and not having much of anything between the rookie and the star back. That was until Frank Gore’s 37-year-old legs were added to the mix. He has a good relationship with head coach Adam Gase from their year together in Miami, and it seems no better than a long shot now that Perine will be in the shadows.
Jason Huntley | Detroit Lions | 5-8, 190 | New Mexico State
Detroit drafted Swift in Round 2 and has Johnson as a versatile backfield complement. Huntley may have a hard time finding work if both of those backs remain healthy — a huge question mark for Johnson. Huntley is a slight figure whose best role will be as a pass-grabbing outlet for Matthew Stafford. There could be a role to seize with a little help from that pesky injury bug.
Lynn Bowden Jr. | Las Vegas Raiders | 6-1, 199 | Kentucky
Bowden played quarterback, wide receiver and running back in college and offers an intriguing skill set for Jon Gruden. The current belief is the rookie will see the majority of his snaps as a running back, possibly as a change of pace from Josh Jacobs. With no idea of how much Bowden will be on the field, let alone where he’ll line up any given play, recommending him as anything more than deep-league roster filler is quite risky.
Raymond Calais | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5-8, 188 | Louisiana
This one intrigues me to a great degree … Calais is a quick-burst, inside-outside back whose ability as a change-up offers the Bucs a fallback if the Ronald Jones experiment continues to disappoint. Calais could struggle to see action, however, if pass protection of TB12 is an obvious issue — and it very well could be at his size. Furthermore, just how many footballs are there to go around in this star-studded offense?
Breaking down the top fantasy football rookie quarterbacks in 2020.
Now that we have had some time to digest the NFL draft and its aftermath, us fantasy footballers are excitedly waiting to add some of the rookies to our fake teams. Deciding which players have fantasy worth in 2020 comes down to assessing the likelihood of meaningful playing time. The following players are ranked in order of anticipated opportunity and corresponding value.
The release of Andy Dalton is good and bad for Burrow. No veteran presence is a setback more than ever. Not having anyone over his shoulder when times inevitably get tough has its perks, though. Also favorable is the LSU star’s reported commitment to studying the offense well before the Bengals even drafted him. Burrow’s game went to the next level in 2020 after the offensive system changed to incorporate five-wide passing — and it didn’t hurt the that the talent around him was otherworldly. There will be hiccups in Burrow’s NFL Year 1, largely because of the positional demands. These bumps will be accentuated by a lack of an organized, on-field offseason.
The talent around Burrow in Cincinnati will be more than adequate, and he’s in an offense that won’t be afraid to open it up. A stable backfield tandem and an offensive line headed in the right direction are also positives for the rookie. Given the state of the world, provided football returns on time for actual games and the teams get some semblance of a training camp, Burrow is a QB3 in traditional leagues. Since most formats don’t typically warrant rostering three quarterbacks, Burrow’s best utility should be DFS action.
On one hand, the Dolphins have Ryan Fitzpatrick as a proven option to steady the ship as the offense finds its way in Year 2 of the Brian Flores regime — this time with a new (old) OC in Chan Gailey. This approach would grant the team all the time it needs to get Tua up to speed in a summer that may have no more than a sneeze of an offseason program. It also provides a plan to rest his hip, if any lingering concerns exist. Tua’s doctors say to the contrary.
On the other side of the coin, the Dolphins spent the No. 5 overall pick on Tagovailoa, and Fitz isn’t the future … he’s barely the present. The expectations for this entire offense remain low, which works in Flores’ favor by starting the rookie. Throwing Tua into the fire — healthy, that is — probably wouldn’t be held against Flores if Miami struggled. Gailey’s system in college was spread, and it could be close to second nature for the Alabama stud. Fantasy expectations should be no better than a high-end backup whose legs will make all the difference between boom or bust most weeks.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
(Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports)
Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | 6-6, 227 | Oregon
Year
Team
Comp
Att
%
Yds
Avg
TD
INT
ATT
YDS
TD
2016
Oregon
162
255
63.5
1,936
7.6
19
4
58
161
2
2017
Oregon
139
206
67.5
1,983
9.6
15
5
44
183
5
2018
Oregon
240
404
59.4
3,151
7.8
29
8
71
166
2
2019
Oregon
286
428
66.8
3,471
8.1
32
6
58
50
4
Much like with the Tagovailoa situation, Herbert enters an offense with a capable incumbent starting quarterback. The Chargers are much closer to “win now” mode than the Dolphins, and this alone could lead to Herbert riding the pine as a rookie. Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor has shown to be a stabilizing force for Anthony Lynn in the past when the duo were united with the Buffalo Bills. Herbert is not as close to being NFL ready when compared to Tua or Burrow, and the lack of an organized offseason will be overly important for the big-armed rookie seeing the field in Week 1.
Does that mean Herbert won’t play any meaningful games in 2020? Of course not. Taylor has enough injury history to suggest he is an elevated risk, and there certainly could come a point in which the Bolts just aren’t playing all that well, putting pressure on Lynn to see what his Howitzer of a rookie can do with this talented receiving corps. Should we see Herbert start enough games to matter, he offers more worth as a matchup play in daily contests than as a flier in any conventional setting. The lineup is deep enough with talent that he belongs on a traditional roster whenever the day comes he enters.
Jacob Eason | Indianapolis Colts | 6-6, 227 | Washington
Year
Team
Comp
Att
Comp%
Yds
Avg
TD
INT
Long
Att
Yds
TD
2016
UGA
204
370
55.1
2,430
6.6
16
8
77
33
-45
1
2017
UGA
4
7
57.1
28
4.0
0
0
10
3
-12
0
2019
WASH
260
405
64.2
3,132
7.7
23
8
57
46
-69
1
Another strong-armed rookie passer, Eason is in a little different situation. He’s not expected to be “the guy” and doesn’t come with the billing of the sixth pick in the draft. Philip Rivers is on a one-year deal. As long as all is well in the world, he’s a fairly sound bet to be re-signed for 2021. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though, since so much can and will change over the next few months. For this season, Rivers will start every game as long as he is healthy and playing at even a reasonably high level. Eason enters as the third QB, in all likelihood, and has no draftable worth this season.
Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | 6-4, 225 pounds | Utah State
Year
Team
Comp
Att
Comp%
Yds
Avg
TD
INT
Long
Att
Yds
TD
2017
Utah State
129
235
54.9
1,631
6.9
8
6
77
46
165
2
2018
Utah State
267
417
64
3,567
8.6
32
6
88
43
63
7
2019
Utah State
293
473
61.9
3,402
7.2
20
17
80
81
175
0
Quite possibly the most curious of the 2020 draft picks, especially in Round 1, Love is likely two years away from seeing the field as a starter in Green Bay. That said, all bets are off if Aaron Rodgers has another pedestrian season or forces his way out next spring. The star passer has missed a few games to injuries in recent years, which gives Love a slightly increased chance of seeing the field as a rookie. No one banks on such a thing. He’s extremely raw and likely will be asked to hand it off time after time in the event Rodgers goes down this season. Love is not draftable in any single-year format.
Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-1, 218 | Oklahoma
We’ll see Hurts on the field as a rookie, albeit in a gadget-play role. The creativity of Doug Pederson will get the Oklahoma standout’s athleticism to work in Philly’s advantage one way or another. Of course, there’s always the seemingly inevitable Carson Wentz injury. Hurts still would have to learn a tremendous amount without a full offseason, and while he’s absolutely capable of it, the inability to build chemistry is what gamers would have to be worried about holding him back. Think DFS-only action for now.
Cole McDonald | Tennessee Titans | 6-4, 220 | Hawaii
McDonald will battle the great Logan Woodside to back up Ryan Tannehill in 2020 — the same Tannehill who has lost significant time to injury in three of his last four seasons. The former Rainbow Warrior has a diverse skill set and could do some work with his legs, if called upon. However, all of the problems a coveted rookie quarterback faces during these trying times only figures to be compounded for a fringe prospect like McDonald. It’s really hard to imagine a team with Super Bowl aspirations would turn it all over to a rookie rather than find a veteran presence.
Roster fodder?
(Derick E. Hingle, USA TODAY Sports)
James Morgan | New York Jets | 6-4, 213 | FIU
David Fales and Mike White are the two quarterbacks between Morgan and Sam Darnold … not exactly elite competition. However, both have spent time in the pros, and in today’s COVID-19 climate, it matters more than ever. Morgan has no immediate fantasy worth.
Joshua Dobbs is penciled in to open the year as the No. 2 behind Gardner Minshew. The towering Luton remains far from fantasy utility, but I wrote similar sentiments last year about Minshew. In that setting, Nick Foles was fresh off of a huge contract that proved to be an utter waste of money. Expect Minshew to get every chance to succeed.
Nate Stanley | Minnesota Vikings | 6-4, 243 | Iowa
Stanley has a future in the NFL, and it very well could be as the replacement for Kirk Cousins — in time. The veteran signed an extension recently and is entrenched as the starter for the immediate future. Sean Mannion is a mostly unknown career backup who spent last year watching Cousins from the sidelines. His role should not change. Stanley isn’t a fantasy football option in 2020.
Jake Fromm | Buffalo Bills | 6-2, 220 | Georgia
Barring a catastrophic injury to Josh Allen, there’s pretty much no viable way we see Fromm in 2020. Furthermore, even if we do, there’s that whole pandemic thing working against him, along with having a flimsy arm in a city that all but demands quarterback have a little mustard.
Tommy Stevens | New Orleans Saints | 6-5, 235 | Mississippi State
New Orleans liked him enough to trade back into the draft after being out of picks, but Stevens will be no better than QB4 entering his rookie season. This one is merely a Sean Payton grooming pick, and Stevens’ skills translate well into the Taysom Hill role. Stevens could become a name to watch if we’re already drafting for 2023 leagues.
Ben DiNucci | Dallas Cowboys | 6-3, 209 | James Madison
While DiNucci could earn himself a role in the long run, it requires Dallas to either not be able to reach a long-term deal with Dak Prescott, or the starter gets hurt for an extended period of time and Andy Dalton doesn’t get the job done — neither of those scenarios puts DiNucci in the fantasy spotlight for 2020 leagues.
Malcolm Perry | Miami Dolphins | 5-9, 190 | Navy
Perry was listed as a quarterback across many draft-tracking platforms during the draft, but he’ll be given a shot at converting to a wide receiver and/or running back in the NFL. Look for his analysis in the WR positional grouping upon its release.
