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The San Francisco Giants (70-64) and San Diego Padres (62-73) meet Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET for the 2nd game of a 4-game series at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Giants lead 4-3
San Francisco won Thursday’s series opener 7-2, and the Giants are 4-1 over their last 5 games. They are also 4-1 across the last 5 games of their season series with the Padres.
San Diego has lost 3 straight games and 6 of its last 7. The Friars own a shaky 4.54 ERA over their last 12 games.
Giants at Padres projected starters
RHP Tristan Beck vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Beck (3-2, 3.52 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 71 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K in 8-5 home win vs. Atlanta Braves Sunday
- 2023 road stats: 0-1, 2.25 ERA in 32 IP across 15 relief appearances
- Has never faced the Padres as a starter
Wacha (10-2, 2.84 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8 K/9 through 101 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 5 K in a 10-6 loss at Milwaukee Brewers Sunday
- 2023 home stats: 7-2, 2.21 ERA in 57 IP across 10 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Giants: 1-0, 2.52 ERA in 25 IP (2016-23)
- Has made just 3 starts in the 2nd half — all since Aug. 15 — after missing time in July-August with a shoulder injury
- Faced the Giants on June 19: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 7-4 road loss
- Has benefited from a .252 batting average on balls in play this season
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Giants at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:06 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Giants +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -135 (bet $134 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Off the board
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: -+100)
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Giants at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Giants 4
Moneyline
Wacha is a definite fade. He is fortunate to have an ERA under 4.00 let alone under 3.00 considering the quality of contact he allows and his rates for walks, whiffs and ground balls.
San Diego is the overall team lean without any pitching attached. Add in Wacha going against a bullpen combo for San Francisco. It equals a PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
This play is OTB but I have no interest in a side either way, even when this line is released. PASS.
Over/Under
Beck has been a long reliever this season, but his pitch count jumped a couple of levels when he threw 70 pitches in his last start. How does he bounce back in this one?
Both starters — especially Wacha — are fly-ball hurlers. The weather report for this one calls for a 10-mile-an-hour breeze blowing out.
The Friars’ offense has been a disappointing one, with San Diego averaging just 4.47 runs per game. The Padres have been awful in high-leverage situations, and in those clutch plate appearances, they’ve logged a very low .247 BABIP.
FanDuel Sportsbook has an OVER 8 (-114) on the board, and that’s a solid play in this one.
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