It has been a polarizing season for the Dallas Cowboys, who enter Week 11 with a record of 5-4. At this point a record like that would seem disappointing, and it should be. The team has been a model of inconsistency and that includes the coaching staff. In one game they look like the best offense in the NFC, but in another they are trailing the New York Jets 21-6 at half-time. However, despite what the record suggests the Cowboys are in first place in their division as they are currently 4-0 against division rivals.
The reality of a 5-4 record does not match Super Bowl expectations, but there is still optimism for the team to make a strong playoff push. Hope springs from the MVP-caliber play of quarterback Dak Prescott, who has helped transform the team’s identity with his passing efficiency. Prescott and the team’s passing attack has been among the best in the league and this is how they rank in the 2019 season with some key metrics:
- No. 1 in EPA per pass attempt (0.32), per nflscrapR
- No. 1 in Success Rate per pass attempt (56%), per nflscrapR
- No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA (29.6%)
- No. 1 in yards per pass attempt (8.7)
- No. 1 in yards per play (6.7)
Prescott gets slighted for being on a team that is one win above .500, but he has maintained his elevated level of play throughout the entirety of the season. Here is a chart that demonstrates Prescott’s effectiveness using Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play). EPA measures the value of a given play using down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.
This graph illustrates how Prescott has been far and away the most crucial component in the Cowboys’ offense. His worst game of the season in terms of EPA/play came against the New York Giants in Week 9. Even then his performance was still comparable to the league average.
This chart also accounts for non-QB EPA/play. The differences are drastic, but it stresses just how good Prescott’s season has been.
The Stafford-less Lions
In their upcoming Week 11 matchup against the Cowboys the Detroit Lions will be without their starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is unlikely to play after suffering a back injury against the Oakland Raiders in Week 9. His injury has been diagnosed as fractured bones in his back per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
In his place backup-quarterback Jeff Driskel will get the starting nod for the second game in a row. In his first start with the Lions, Driskel was 27-of-46 passing against the Chicago Bears for 269 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a losing effort. He also added 37 yards on five carries.
Overall, his performance was all one could ask of a backup, and Driskel is experienced in this regard. In a similar situation in 2018 he was tasked with filling in for an injured Andy Dalton for the Cincinnati Bengals over a five-game stretch.
Playoff Projections
Week 11 is shaping up to be a meaningful week for the Cowboys. Their odds of winning the division will get a big boost with a win against the Lions and and a Philadelphia Eagles loss against the New England Patriots. According to FiveThirtyEights’ 2019 NFL Predictions a Cowboys win and an Eagles loss on Sunday gives the Cowboys a 60% chance to win the division. However, a Cowboys loss and an Eagles win would drop the team’s playoff odds to a mere 16%.
In preparation for Week 11, Driskel called his upcoming start against the Cowboys, “business as normal”. For the Cowboys this will not be a game to take lightly. The Lions are facing a string of injuries on both sides of the field, one player that is in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s matchup for the Lions is cornerback Darius Slay. Slay has arguably been his team’s best player in the defensive backfield and if he is unable to play then the Cowboys’ passing attack will be heavily favored.
All signs point to the Cowboys coming away with a victory on Sunday, but victory for the team has hardly been a sure thing. If the Cowboys want to prove they are contenders, they will need to produce a convincing win against a weakened Lions team. As the dust settles, a win here would be step one for the team as they get ready for a final playoff push down the stretch.