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The Atlanta Braves (45-35) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (39-42) to Truist Park (39-42) for the 2nd game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 2-2
The Braves, who are one of the best home teams in the MLB with a 25-13 record, beat the Pirates 6-1 Friday, closing as a -213 favorite. They have won 10 of their last 15 games yet are 2-3 over their last 5. Atlanta is 38-42 against the spread (ATS) on the season and 2-3 ATS over its last 5. DH Marcell Ozuna leads test team with 21 HR and 67 RBI.
The Pirates are 20-22 in the road games and snapped a 2-game road winning streak with their loss Friday. Pittsburgh is 6-5 over its last 11 games and is 3-2 over its last 5 on the road. The Pirates are 42-39 ATS on the season. They have closed as an underdog in 4 straight games and are 24-24 straight up as an underdog this season.
Pirates at Braves projected starters
RHP Paul Skenes vs. LHP Max Fried
Skenes (4-0, 2.14 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 through 46 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 3-1 home loss to the Tampa Bay Rays Sunday
- 2024 away splits: 2-0, 0.98 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.55 WHIP, 1 HR, 13.7 K/9 in 5 starts
- Has yet to face the Braves in his career
Fried (7-3, 3.00 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 46 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in a 3-1 road win over the New York Yankees Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 2-1, 3.19 ERA (31 IP, 11 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 1 HR, 7.3 K/9 in 5 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: 3-1, 4.76 ERA (34 IP, 18 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 6 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Braves odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-172) | Braves -1.5 (+142)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -106 | U: -114)
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Pirates at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Pirates 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Braves, especially considering how Skenes has pitched on the road, aren’t worth the play as an expensive favorite. Similarly, Fried has been too good as well to play the Pirates as a road under.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PIRATES +1.5 (-172).
Pittsburgh has had Skenes start in 3 road games, and it is 3-0 in those. Skenes has allowed 3 ER through 18 IP on the road. The Pirates are 24-18 ATS on the road and 32-16 ATS as an underdog, the fifth-best covering rate as an underdog in the majors.
The Braves, who are 1-2 ATS in Fried’s last 3 starts, have struggled as of late. They rank in the bottom half of the league in covering after a win at just 16-21 ATS following a victory. Both teams have strong pitching options that should keep this game close.
Back PIRATES +1.5 (-172).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-114).
The Pirates have gone Under in 2 straight and in 4 of their last 6. Pittsburgh is 37-41-3 O/U on the season. Both pitchers are 3.00 ERA or better on the season, and each have trended on the season towards the Under.
The Braves, who have gone Under in Fried’s last 3 starts, are 0-3 O/U in their last 3. They are 1-5 O/U in their last 6 and 30-47-3 O/U on the season. Back UNDER 7.5 (-114).
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